GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Rasmussen Daily General Election Tracking Poll
- Barack Obama 43%
- John McCain 41%
With Leaners
- John McCain 46%
- Barack Obama 46%
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points.
Demographic Notes
McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, Obama by 55%. Obama is clearly the defining candidate of the race and energizes both sides of the political divide more than McCain. The presumptive Democratic nominee is viewed Very Favorably by 53% of Democrats and Very Unfavorably by 51% of Republicans. McCain generates less passion and less intense opposition. He is viewed Very Favorably by 38% of Republicans and Very Unfavorably by 31% of Democrats.
Among unaffiliated voters, 20% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 24% have a Very Unfavorable opinion. For McCain, the numbers among unaffiliated voters are 14% Very Favorable and 14% Very Unfavorable.
July 19th, 2008 at 11:09 am
According to the new Zogby poll, Romney adds +15% when asking likely voters if they are more likely versus less like to vote for McCain. He adds +33% amongst Republicans, and +17% amongst Independent voters. According to that, it does appear that some Democrats drop off of McCain when adding Mitt, otherwise, the difference would be even greater. Huckabee helps also, but most others are net negatives when added.
We should be able to win this thing in November.
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1530
July 19th, 2008 at 11:20 am
How Obama can be viewed favorably by 55% of the electorate is simply unbelievable. We’re talking about a guy whose voting record is to the left of the Socialist Senator from Vermont. What is America thinking?
July 19th, 2008 at 11:49 am
I am totally surprised that McCain is neck and neck with Obama.
I was totally wrong. I though McCain would be down by 10 points at this point. But what is weird is that McCain is still hurting electorally. I am seeing mixed results so I am not so sure it is tied. He could be still being killed electorally and may need to do alot of work there. So yeah maybe he is down by 10 pts in key states but is tied in the general. If that makes senses?!?!
July 19th, 2008 at 11:55 am
#3, it is tough to determine to ECV when there is 16% undecided.
One good point for McCain, the “leaners” tend to support McCain.
July 19th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
But still I am surprised at well he is doing atleast on the General Election level. I guess most other Republican would be killed right now. It looks like to me that McCain has a chance, although less of a chance than Obama to win the whole thing. Republicans maybe lucky (in terms of practicality not 100% philosophically) to have him on the ticket.
Could Guiliani poll better? I dunno, social conservative strength may have been weaker but he would have done real well with moderates and some liberals. But I am not sure how much better he would have done that McCain is doing now. It is quite remarkable. I thought this level of parity would have been impossible one month ago.
July 19th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
But of course, Obama has started his ad blitz against McCain. So is starting to look like the deciding factor in this race. It’s a shame that McCain is going to take public financing but oh well he has many internal and external reasons to do so. He could have made it a contest if he could.
July 19th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
*has not
July 19th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
The mood of the country is what it is. People vote based upon how I am I doing personally. I am a realist. It is not tough for me to imagine why he is ahead. Questions were asked about Clinton in 1992. How can people vote for Clinton when……….. Then there are other factors. Is Obama’s race more of an issue or McCain’s age? I think one thing that is failed to mention about Romney is what about the base. He does not help in that area. Why because he is a Mormon. Some base voters who as we know are going to hold there nose and vote for McCain may sit this one out. Like Dobson and his followers.
What is a serious concern though is the night before the 2004 election Bush was ahead by 1% he won 51 to 48 with 110,000 votes in Ohio giving him the victory that’s it. Those are facts that can’t be debated.
Let’s say that McCain wins every state Bush won this time and Obama wins every state that Kerry won. McCain would win.
The realalist problem that I see is that there are more red states in play then there are blue. Obama and McCain are either tied there or McCain is ahead in one or two and Obama is ahead in one or two. I think that most believe even on here that a couple of red states will turn blue. As for the blue states turning red. The only two states in play are Ohio and Pa. The problem here is that trends have not given McCain a lead there in awhile and with the economy in those states, it hurts him. Then let’s say if McCain were to win Ohio in a squeaker as bush did. A couple of the red states turning blue can give it to Obama.
Then we do not know who Obama will pick as his VP.I try to not to be real emotional about this. Hopeful but a real list. There are way to many close red states this year and even if that some as we get closer to Nov. If the election is won by 2-5% the red states in 2004 all have to stay red in order for McCain to win.. Recent polls have Obama ahead in or tied in some of these red states while slightly ahead in Oh and Pa.
As I close there are rumors that the keeting 5 scandal on McCain and a new attack on Cindy McCain are coming. Cindy and her past issues with meds and stealing them. Along with other stuff………they need to be prepared
July 19th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Can we all agree though that the Dem’s made a huge mistake in nominating Obama? If Hillary was the Dem nominee, we would have no chance.
July 19th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
#5, the most encouraging thing for right-leaning voters is that the Republican candidates generally are behind in July, and this is no different in 2008.
Again today, McCain is within the margin of error in Gallup (45/43).
July 19th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
Is there a Bradley effect to these polls? Does it explain why Obama does better in State polling than he does in General election polling? Is it that the Red-States don’t want to be portrayed as racists so his numbers are artificially boosted? I think that could be at play too. This year is going to be a difficult one to get a read on.
July 19th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
# 4 that information is not correct elctoral wise. We need to be realistic and check the facts. Sure McCain has a chance. However with Electoral leaners he is not ahead. Even the best case right now has Obama 293 Electoral votes with leaners. 16% undecided yes. That is part of the problem. You see Obamas support has slipped but with a 1% of that going to McCain. The undecided has gotten bigger. Even if lets say 6% were to either sit out or go to Nadar or Barr then that leaves 10% lets give Obama a slight edge in this until McCain proves he can lead him in the polls on a regular basis. Lets say it 6% Obama and 4% McCain. That still gives it to Obama. Electoral and National. Issues have to be faced if McCain wants to win
July 19th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
#11:
Obama always overperforms in the polls. Remember before NH? He was up huge and lost. The polls said it was tied in OH, but he lost badly. CA was supposed to be close, but Hillary beat him again. The same thing will happen in November.
July 19th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
#12, actually I am correct. When learners tell pollsters who they are supporting, a majority lean to McCain.
That is fact, LOOK AT THE POST YOU ARE ON!
Learners;
McCain - 5%
Obama - 3%
July 19th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
#9, yes if Hillary was the nominee, it would be harder for us. Still cannot believe that the MSM was so down
on her. And am sure she has a complete list of who said what or did what that can be used later.
If Obama wins I predict that in 4 years from now when he runs again he will be behind and we’ll be hard
pressed to find anyone that voted for him first time around, aka Jimmy Carter - another media darling.
July 19th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
# 9 I don’t think so. I think that there sadly is more sexisim then there is racisim and with Bills baggage they would have ripped her apart. She is not being torn down by anyone on a conisistent basis, so its easy to say that. The mood of the country is like 1980 and 1992. Too look at past elections you have to look on the moods of the country during these time. Both people who were taking advantage of the mood of that time kept the race close in the summer too. Hopeful yes but realalist too.
July 19th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
#16:
I’m not so much looking at the mood as at the states. Hillary would have kept almost all the blue states blue and would have done much better in places like FL, and OH. Not to mention the states where she could have won that Obama can’t: WV, AR, TN, LA, and KY all of which are safely red now since Obama is the Dem nominee.
July 19th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
That’s right. We already have proof of the Bradley effect during the primary season!
What is this going to mean?
1. I think it means that it is going to kill McCain’s fundraising. You tend to fundraise well if you look competitive but if the polls have you down then the fundraising dries up.
2. Media will talk as though Obama is inevitable since the polls will show him artificially the one in charge electorally. This could have a snowball effect and make the gap wider when in fact if the election were held today, McCain would win.
So McCain has to figure out a way to stay afloat without fundraising and without the Media helping him. How in the heck does he do that?
Public financing? Try to excite conservatives? I don’t see many options for McCain to fight this fight.
July 19th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
#14 look at electoral map sites I will give you two of them. One of them the electoral vote. com The guy is a republican based on what he has said on his site and his leanings. If you look at the bottom of the map it tells you what state polls are realased that daay. It’s important not to rely on one site or one poll. Otherwise you don’t get the full picture
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
http://www.electionprojection.com/index.shtml
July 19th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
#16, Clinton was leading McCain in polls going back to May, and in fact in the Ras poll the other day, she has a double-digit lead (hyp. matchup) over McCain.
12% of the country thinks Obama is a Muslim, although there is sexism in America, she would not have had this negative to start the campaign off with.
July 19th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
The mood of the country against the GOP overall. Its bad. Proof in congress and seats that are going to be lost by the GOP which is sad. Its not good at all. Its easy to look at a canidate who is out of it like Clinton, who is not getting ripped down. who is not getting the scrunity and say she would have done this. If that was the case she would have won the primary. We think that there are more blue staes in Jep. If you look at all the states not the ones that you mention. The only two blue states that were won last time by bush are Ohio and Pa. If other red states like Co, Nm, Mo,ND, NV and to a lesser degree NC and Va are either tied McCain ahead by 1-3 or Obama ahead by 1-3 in current polling.
I try to get emotional about McCain winning or losing just things are what they are it is what it is. The question is what is going to be done about it. If we keep saying McCain will win he will win without him addressing some of the serious problems he has too. Then he wont win
July 19th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
Sorry just Oh what I mean is they both are in play and won of the blue Oh was won by bush by 110-111k
July 19th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
This election cycle is most puzzling one I have ever seen. There are too many factors at play and it is nearly impossible to project what is going to happen.
July 19th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
James Schultz #19,
Electoral Vote is a Dem site. Scott Elliot over at Election Projection is a Conservative.
July 19th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
I agree with you number 23. Unless it was a 1964 election or a 1984 one it is. The links I showed you above the electoralvote.com, the guy as I said seems rep as he has said so and his leanings and comments indicate. The big map above has alot of them from polls from last month. However below it it shows current state polls released each day. He just has not the main map yet. However, he gives in the paragrpahs below daily accounts on what is happening electoroal wise. The other link good too.
The electoral map even on this site is comparable with the two links.
Yeah, if Clinton were going to beat McCain she would have Won the primary. She was behind in electoral votes by the people which cause supper to go with Obama. The far right hates her and with have ripped or apart on a scale far worse than Obama is getting. 12% thinking he is a Muslim is 12% but at the same time sexisim supperceedes that big time. To addres #20 a bit more.
July 19th, 2008 at 12:49 pm
#21, I am not so sure about that. Reagan, Bush 1, and Bush 1 were all behind in July.
The Democratic party almost always makes these mistake. They select a candidate with their heart instead of their head. They did it again this year.
They have turned a near sure-thing in to a 50/50 chance.
July 19th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
Bush 2′ sorry.
July 19th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
Everyone should read this.
July 19th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
Bush number 1 that is not fair comparioson. Why because Bush 1 was running for a third very popular ‘REGAN’ term. People tend to forget that. Second, Dukakis made alot of mistakes. Willy Horton and him inside of a tank with a helmet on. Bush 1. The War by far was the theme of 2004 the economy was not as important to voters as it is now.
Clinton won. He was behind in July but perot was strong it was a three way race. In the end though, the mood of the country was against the party they felt was an issue. The GOP. Look I know we want McCain to win. I understand that. However, hoping Obama makes mistakes, hoping, something comes out on him that will stick, hoping most of the Hillary voters come over, hoping that people with Obama will change their mind, demonizing him as (Huckabee said was a big mistake) is not going to win him the election. What is McCain going to do about it. That is the bottom line. How is HE going to present and Market himself. Obama though his politics are not liked. Is not dumb. Meaning that a fight is on. The conv and debates have not happened if he looks well in both. it will be tough. If we are counting on him not too and sitting around hoping he won’t, McCain will lose. If he does not do well that will be an extra but him messing up should not be how McCain will win. If it is what does that say about McCain if he has to depend on someone else messing up instead of him presenting himself, image and ideas better.
July 19th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
#28: Great article and reason for optimism.
July 19th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
I agree with the article Kavon put out. This election has been said it is all about Obama and not McCain. Meaning, it’s about Obama messing up and McCain capitalizing. The article supports this somewhat. Hugh, it should be about McCain and what he is going to do. Not per say do it better because that is up for debate amount people. Presenting himself better then letting the people decide.
However, I was focusing on the 1980 race and 1992 more this is good.
McCain keep your underdog theme because if you get that you are ahead or will be ahead then that is a way to stop fighting as much and lose. he is behind electoral wise I have accepted that. Now, let the fight go on to pull ahead there since that is where the election is won
July 19th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
#29, Reagan was not as popular in 1988 as some may thing. The press turned on him and people wanted change, big CHANGE!
Some polls has Bush 1 down by 20% at convention time. Dukakis was another northern Liberal, as Obama, and yes he made mistakes, like Obama has been doing.
And in fact, yes I think Obama is “dumb”. I bet you he does not have an IQ over 120. Obama has been benefitting from “special” treatment his entire life. Can anyone actually find an accomplishment from his days at Harvard, or in the Ill Senate, or in the US Senate? NO!
He was selected as the editor of the Harward Law review not based on merit, he won election as Senator because the GOP candidate resigned in a sex scandal, and he was annointed the Dem. candidate because many voters and the media did not want Clinton.
July 19th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
I will give Obama credit. If you beat the Clinton machine, then you are in no means a political pushover/lightweight.
July 19th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
Speaking of electoral-vote.com, the guy had a post about potential McCain VPs a few days ago. Here’s an excerpt:
For McCain, only two choices are problematical. If he picks Gov. Sarah Palin (R), a biker chick who would add immense pizazz to the ticket (and probably overshadow not only McCain but also Obama), in principle Lt. Gov. Sen Parnell (R) becomes governor. Only Parnell is running for the House and might well win if he can beat the corrupt incumbent, Don Young (R-AK), in the primary. At that point Parnell could either resign the governorship or his seat in Congress. If he chooses to be a congressman, the President of the state senate appears to be next in line. Despite its being the smallest legislative body in the United States (only 20 state senators), Alaska state senate politics is truly bizarre. Republicans currently control 11 seats and Democrats 9, but the Republicans are badly divided and there is a coalition of the 9 Democrats and 6 Republicans who run the place under the leadership of Texas-born nominal Republican Lyda Green. Does McCain understand all this? Does he care? Palin would add incredible zip to the ticket.
All that said, all signs seem to be pointing to Romney, so I hope that works out.
July 19th, 2008 at 3:06 pm
#34
That was a very interesting post. Thanks for passing on the information.
July 19th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
Did anybody even bother studying the link I posted in #1? Everyone on here, including me have lots of personal opinions, but did you not see that Romney strenghthens the ticket by a huge amount?? I was expecting lots of comments about it.
With Romney on ticket, likely voters- 26$ more likely
————————————- 11% less likely
—————–Amongst Republicans- 41% more likely
————————————- 8% less likely
—————–Amongst Independents 30% more likely
————————————- 13% less likely
The benefits are huge with Mitt on the ticket!! So, instead of this poll being tied with McCain/???, it could be plus several percentage points with Mitt. Huckabee helped also, but not by as much.
Keep your heads up guys. This isn’t doomsday. If Mac makes a good decision on VP, we win this thing.
July 19th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
#8, what are you talking about? Its McCain that Dobson says he will not vote for, not McCain with Romney on the ticket. In fact, he said the following after Mitt dropped out:
“His record on the institution of the family and other conservative issues makes his candidacy a matter of conscience and concern for me. That left two pro-family candidates whom I could support, but I was reluctant to choose between them. However, the decision by Gov. Mitt Romney to put his campaign “on hold” changes the political landscape. The remaining candidate for whom I could vote is Gov. Huckabee. His unwavering positions on the social issues, notably the institution of marriage, the importance of faith and the sanctity of human life, resonate deeply with me and with many others.”
He indicated he couldn’t make up his mind between Huckabee and Mitt, but when Mitt dropped out, he immediately endorsed Huckabee. So, don’t act as if Dobson is anti Mitt Romney, far from it.
July 19th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
Does that poll mean that Romney helps the ticket or is simply more popular than McCain with some voters? I hope the McCain camp is polling a McCain/Romney ticket against BHO and then polling McCain/Palin against BHO. I have seen little evidence that Romney is wildly popular with the electorate.
July 19th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
“Does that poll mean that Romney helps the ticket or is simply more popular than McCain with some voters? ”
Sorry Grant, I don’t see how you can wonder whether or not Mitt helps the ticket. Did you click the link and study it for a few minutes? The only way you could say he didn’t help the ticket would be something like, “15% of the voters were more likely to vote for McCain, but none of them did.” lol
I don’t know why, but Palin has really slid a long way down in the last two weeks. Something must have happend though.
July 19th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
Illinoisguy,
This certainly doesn’t reflect well on Palin.
July 19th, 2008 at 8:03 pm
Btw, Mitt’s trading at 38.4, a new high
Huckabee 11
Pawlenty 10 Lowest for a long time
July 20th, 2008 at 8:29 am
Aron–to be fair, you should go to the Palin for vp website and listen to the story about the Alaska situation. Illinoisguy–a conservative Republican who likes Mitt more than McCain would say they are more likely to support the ticket if Mitt is on it–but they would have voted for the ticket anyway-so it is no gain. Seems to me, you have to poll the ticket againstBHO ,not ask a nebulous question about more likely to support the ticket.. Bottomline–we should be careful about Zogby polls==Zogby doesn’t have Republican interests at heart.
July 20th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
Grant, you’re partially right. We don’t know the total impact of a question like this. However, to say that a net 33% more likely would translate into a ‘no gain’ is pretty much a stretch. Currently, there are those so unenthused that they will stay home, and others who will possibly vote for Barr. So, there would be a net gain, we just can not quantify it at this point. Secondly, with 41% of the Republicans more likely to vote for McCain, and only 8% less likely, at the very least you need to acknowledge that somewhere in that 33% differential there would be additional money coming in, and a lot more work for the ticket? Are you honest enough to acknowledge that?
July 20th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
Not a matter of honesty–you could be right that Mitt adds something. I just haven’t seen any solid evidence that Mitt adds votes to the ticket. My gut tells me that Mitt adds excitement mostly for those who will already vote for the ticket. My only concern is a McCain win. That is probably not a ticket of two aging white guys(like me). I am slowly coming to the conclusion that McCain needs a hail mary–Palin. I know McCain is close but he needs to take a lead with someone who appeals to women and hispanics. Palin would probably help with women and McCain does poorly with female voters.