July 22, 2008
Poll Watch: Detroit News-WXYZ EPIC-MRA Michigan General Election
Detroit News-WXYZ EPIC-MRA Michigan General Election
- Barack Obama 43% (40%)
- John McCain 41% (44%)
Survey of 600 likely voters was conducted July 13-16. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted May 19-22 are in parentheses.
H/T: JayPe
Inside the numbers:
• Obama, buoyed by near-universal support from African-Americans, is well ahead in Detroit. He holds a big lead with young voters, and a smaller edge among those who name the economy as their primary concern, and gets better marks as the candidate most likely to bring change.
• McCain leads among white voters, but not by a large enough margin to counter Obama’s lead with African-Americans. He is ahead across the state outside of Metro Detroit, especially in northern and western Michigan. McCain gets higher marks as a candidate voters trust, and to handle terrorism and homeland security.
Each candidate gets support from about four of every five voters from his own party — leaving the race in the hands of the roughly 16 percent of Michigan voters who say they are independents. McCain holds a slender, 4-point lead among them — but that’s down from a double-digit lead in EPIC-MRA’s late May survey.
EPIC-MRA pollster Bernie Porn said there is some good news for McCain within the undecided voters, who view the Republican favorably by a significant margin.
Overall, voters look at both men positively: 51 percent have a favorable view of Obama, to 37 percent unfavorable. McCain’s positives are even better: 58 percent favorable to 32 percent unfavorable.
By a 42-34 margin, voters chose McCain as the candidate they trust more. Nearly two-thirds chose him as the candidate with the “right kind of experience” to be president, and he’s more likely to be seen as a strong leader.
But 43 percent see Obama as the candidate who cares about someone like them, to 32 percent for McCain. Fifty-three percent say Obama is more likely to bring “needed change,” more than double the number for McCain. And Obama holds a 3-1 lead on the question of who is more likely to inspire people.
http://race42008.com/2008/07/22/poll-watch-detroit-news-wxyz-epic-mra-michigan-general-election/trackback/
July 22nd, 2008 at 1:21 am
Um, do I get a hat-tip?
July 22nd, 2008 at 1:22 am
This is where Romney supporters point out the obvious fact that with this kind of margin Romney would possibly help enough to turn it.
July 22nd, 2008 at 1:24 am
Given I posted this in previous blogs at 1236am, and it was posted at 120am, I feel I deserve a hat-tip! Small things like that make a big difference to this amateur poster…
July 22nd, 2008 at 1:25 am
Mcon, Romney will help lock in the crucial Mormon swing vote in Michigan…
July 22nd, 2008 at 1:31 am
Thanks Aron
July 22nd, 2008 at 1:34 am
Have a good night, JayPe…
July 22nd, 2008 at 6:09 am
*engage Rombot protocol #1496*
Hey, did you know Mitt would help in Michigan? I hear he has family roots there or something…
*disengage Rombot protocol #1496*
July 22nd, 2008 at 7:07 am
McCain is losing the “energy and gas prices” question…my goodness. This is a result of his lack of enthusiasm for the issue and his incoherent policy (wants to lower gas prices through drilling, but not in Alaska, but also seems to want to increase gas prices through Cap and Trade). And he’s losing the “he cares about someone like me” question to Barack “rural folks cling to religion” Obama. Unacceptable. If he can turn those two questions around, that alone should be enough to give him a slight lead (because there will be a corresponding improvement on his economic numbers).
July 22nd, 2008 at 8:31 am
what a great name “EPIC-MRA pollster Bernie Porn “
July 22nd, 2008 at 8:32 am
Uhm, McCain’s fav rating are +26%
Obama’s fav ratings are +14%
Where do you think the undecided are going? McCain. This is a bad news poll for Obama.
July 22nd, 2008 at 8:32 am
I’m surprised that Hussein scored as low as he did on the “Morality and Family Values.”
July 22nd, 2008 at 8:34 am
And look at the Auto Industyr results – 36/38% – They view each candidate almost identically.
July 22nd, 2008 at 8:35 am
#12, that means to auto workers like McCain, not the union bosses, but the factory workers.
July 22nd, 2008 at 8:36 am
This echos strongly of the sentiment that Obama is the touchy-feely candidate (cares about people like me?), and McCain is the get-r-done candidate (able to lead).
This is BAD for Obama
July 22nd, 2008 at 8:42 am
This poll has good elements for McCain, but do we believe it? It seems that this poolster doesn’t push undecideds very hard at all. Obama is at 50 in the Rasmussen poll. I believe there are plenty of people that like McCain but won’t vote for him because of that pesky little (R) next to his name and I think that’s why McCain’s poll numbers leave much to be desired even though his favorable numbers look good.
I want to believe we could take Michigan – but I just don’t see it happening this year. I don’t think Romney will help here either. Dick Devos got trounced in 2006 – even though the same Democrats were running the show in the state. Trying to get this state to stop their self-destructive behavior is like trying to get a junkie to come clean.
July 22nd, 2008 at 8:45 am
Yep, you’re right Brent. This is actually fitting exactly into the classic “Mommy Party” and “Daddy Party” molds. The problem is, as long as the political and national climate stays the same, this will most likely be a year where more voters prefer a Mommy. Still, not bad news for McCain.
July 22nd, 2008 at 9:12 am
McCain has a net 26% fav rating. Obama has a net %14 fav rating. If this continues to election day, McCain will carry MI. A candidate with a double digit lead in fav ratings will not be defeated in November.
July 22nd, 2008 at 9:49 am
Interesting theory, Joshua with the Mommy/Daddy analogy.
Kristofer: I am a big believer in the favorability/unfavorability rating myself. I would like to see several polls show McCain with a lead in this department before I become convinced (instead of just hopeful) that he is viewed more favorably then Obama in Michigan. If he is, then Michigan might be in play.
July 22nd, 2008 at 11:24 am
Michigan is definitely in play, as it has been the last 2 elections when Bush failed to carry it by very small margins. It could very well be the key to the election, along with Ohio. BTW, did anybody notice that Romney carried the state by a large margin? Trivialize it if you will, but we need every edge we can get to narrowly carry it instead of narrowly losing it.
July 22nd, 2008 at 11:42 am
Yes, Mr. Romney did win Michigan in the primary and we were close in 2004. However, Primaries do not always translate into general victories. Mr. Romney is going to have to probably do a little better in at least one of the other 3 major swing states if he is going to be of real help.
July 22nd, 2008 at 11:45 am
On #11. Can you stop the “Hussein” talk Brett? It’s pretty classless. You never refer to McCain as “Sydney”.
July 22nd, 2008 at 11:50 am
OHIO JOE,
Note that Romney won Colorado and Nevada by huge margins, and only lost New Hampshire to McCain by something like 5 points. Who else offers comparable help in marginal states? Romney carried 13 states while he was in and got more than 4 million votes to McCain’s 4,700,000 by the time he dropped out. Who has been more effective in campaigning for McCain? The inside word is that McCain considers Romney to be his most valuable surrogate.
July 22nd, 2008 at 12:06 pm
With respect Dave, Colorado and Nevada were not primary state, although, I’ll grant you that Mr. Romney would help in those states. However, both are smaller than PA, OH and Virginia. I realize that Mr. Romney may be are VP candidate, but I disagree that he is the most valuable surrogate. Some in the McCain camp may think that, I doubt that it is a majority view.
July 22nd, 2008 at 12:14 pm
For it to be this close, it’s a victory for McCain. With all the bad press and coverage, the blatant bias and drooling over Obama, I’m surprised at how well Johnny Mac is doing.
July 22nd, 2008 at 12:29 pm
Boy I love how derizive Romney bashers are about him helping in Michigan. Obviously you know nothing about my home state. The Romney family has deep root in SUBURBAN DETROIT, the home of Reagan Democrats! DeVos is from Grand Rapids, which is a conservative bstion of the state. Romney is going to do well amongst the upper middle class voters in Oakland county who really understand business and have some semblance of wealth because of it. THAT is why Romney is helpful in Michigan- location, location, location.
July 22nd, 2008 at 12:41 pm
voters want a mommy? we can give them both this year.
why didn’t they include cross tabs by gender?
all in all this isn’t too bad of a result
July 22nd, 2008 at 12:41 pm
I is not Romney bashing to question the wisdom of how much Mr. Romney helps. Michigan is not the only swing state. There are locations outside of Michigan that count at least as much.
July 22nd, 2008 at 1:26 pm
Joshua Lawson: West Wing much?
I said the exact same thing like a month ago, and some lady scolded me for “sexual stereotypes.”
July 22nd, 2008 at 1:30 pm
The problem is that the voters that Romney “helps” with are already voting for McCain. The wealthy, suburban Americans are voting for McCain, probably by a more sizeable margin than any other socioeconomic demographic in the country. The Reagan Democrats don’t like Mitt Romney, the Reagan Republicans are the ones that rave about him. And the Reagan Dems aren’t going to vote for him just because he’s from their hometown. Sen. Jim DeMint is from my old hometown, and I would never vote for him in my LIFE.
July 22nd, 2008 at 2:46 pm
Robbie why would you not vote for Mr. DeMint?