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NBC News/Wall Street Journal General Election
Who do you think would be better –Barack Obama or John McCain — when it comes to:
Having the strong leadership qualities needed to be president?
Being consistent and standing up for his beliefs?
Being a good commander-in-chief?
Being knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency?
As you think about the presidential race and the direction in which the next president will take the country, who do you think would be the riskier choice for president–John McCain or Barack Obama?
Survey of 1,003 registered voters was conducted July 18-21. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 6-9 are in parentheses.
July 23rd, 2008 at 6:42 pm
There must be a little Bradley effect
in there. How can McCain be ahaed like that in all those categories and be trailing by 6%…
July 23rd, 2008 at 6:43 pm
Only 19% think Obama is “knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency”, but 47% are going to vote for him. This is so stupid, I just had to write it.
July 23rd, 2008 at 6:59 pm
hahahahahahaha
its in the bag.
July 23rd, 2008 at 7:01 pm
CBL, that would be “lest”.
The risky business…
* Barack Obama 55%
* John McCain 35%
…is important. Woman voters tend to vote for the “safer” candidate (e.g. Nixon in 1960). The election may well be decided by fretful females. If McCain (and his running mate) are reassuring, risk averse voters may shy away from Obama, even with all his MSM amplified charms.
July 23rd, 2008 at 7:06 pm
Men usually make up their minds about who they are going to vote for earlier than women do. I believe this is because they pay more attention to politics than women. Obama will in the end do better among women than McCain though, and that’s because of single women voters who always vote Democratic.
July 23rd, 2008 at 7:11 pm
I’m not sure it’s a case of the “Bradley Effect”. Instead, I think voters have an overwhelming sense that they’re “supposed” to vote for Obama (per the MSM’s narrative), but they can’t quite figure out why. Nothing else makes the smallest amount of sense. It’s beyond belief that 28% of voters could vote for Obama (at minimum), despite not being sure he’s capable of handling the job. Plenty of voters are saying they’ll vote for Obama who aren’t at all comfortable with doing so. I’ve largely taken the position that McCain’s focus on foreign policy has been a terrific mistake, and that instead he needs to hammer Obama’s elitism (he’s giving speeches to fawning Germans while Americans are hurting) and arrogance (presidential seals, etc), but it’s possible that by locking down the “Obama is totally out of his depth” narrative, early in the cycle, he’ll have an easier time portraying him as out of touch with working class Americans.
July 23rd, 2008 at 7:17 pm
Matthew,
I totally agree with you that McCain needs to go after Obama’s arrogance and elitism. Today I was reading about how Obama will be doing a European tour. Just the thought of him doing that angered me because it seems like he’s running to be president of the world instead of president of the United States. It was just a gut reaction that I’m sure a lot of other people would have too if McCain hammered home that point.
July 23rd, 2008 at 7:23 pm
They also polled and asked voters what qualities they want in the VP choices.
For McCain’s VP it was far and away expert on the economy at 60%, with military/FP expert 2nd at 25%, and business experience 3rd at 22%.
July 23rd, 2008 at 7:28 pm
“Instead, I think voters have an overwhelming sense that they’re “supposed” to vote for Obama (per the MSM’s narrative), but they can’t quite figure out why”
And that’s the biggest component of the Bradley effect. The group think is that you are supposed to vote for him. But there is no substance. He will collapse atleast 5 points in the election booth maybe even more.
July 23rd, 2008 at 7:29 pm
Mike Bloomberg?
Meg Whitman? Whitman has all of Mitt’s economy and business benefits, none of his downsides, everyone knows about Ebay, and she’s a woman.
Makes perfect sense
July 23rd, 2008 at 8:00 pm
Jim: I like the idea of Meg Whitman, too. The danger with anyone who has never run for office before is that, however great they are in another field, as Whitman is in business, they may be lousy campaigners. Nonetheless, I could be persuaded on Whitman — she is clearly competent, and she is the sort of out-of-the-box choice that would force people to sit up and take notice.
July 23rd, 2008 at 8:12 pm
McCain would be even a bigger idiot if he concedes the ‘experience’ angle to Obama by giving the nod to someone like Whitman. Sure she’s a top shelf business woman, but come on, zero government experience? She would make Obama look like a senior statesman and give Obama all the cover he needs to deflect the ‘experience’ angle of attack.
July 23rd, 2008 at 8:45 pm
Lol.
July 23rd, 2008 at 8:55 pm
“Bradley effect” was a regular refrain from the Clinton campaign supporters too, and it didn’t help them much. So don’t copy them.
Far better to look at the last few elections, and compare July polls to election results.
July 23rd, 2008 at 9:03 pm
Its also worth noting that there are a number of other questions in this survey which weren’t posted.
HHow excited are you? (excited/satisfied/less of two evils)
Obama is 44/33/22
McCain is 14/42/43
So Obama has a much more solid bedrock of support. Which is unsurprising.
Which candidate is more easy-going and likeable (the “have a beer with?” question)
Obama leads 59-15.
Which candidate is compassionate to understand average americans?
Obama leads 46-22.
On whether the US should have a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq?
Good idea leads bad idea by 60-30.
So with those numbers in mind, maybe its not surprising Obama leads…
July 23rd, 2008 at 9:26 pm
Aron, that is one of the dangers of only posting certain numbers. People will start to question the intelligence of the American voter (e.g. #2)
July 23rd, 2008 at 11:06 pm
JayPe,
An excited Obama supporter’s vote is worth the same as a ‘lesser of two evils’, nose-holding McCain voter, and history consistently tells us it’s the 65-year-old who’s far more likely to get to the polling place than the enthusiastic 20-year-old.
I would also say Obama is probably the more easygoing of the two, and not as irascible, more of a bleeding-heart liberal, but, there’s no f-ing way I would ever trust him with the authority and responsibilities that come with being our nation’s Commander in Chief. As for the timetable question, you should know full well that there was a profound bias in the wording of the question which asked:
As you may know, the president of Iraq has said that the United States should set a timetable for withdrawal of troops from Iraq. Do you believe that it is a good idea or a bad idea for the United States to set a timetable for withdrawal of troops from Iraq?
NBC/WSJ says “as you may know,” but they’re sure as hell hoping you don’t. Anyone who “may know,” would know that that’s BS, and that al-Maliki immediately dialed back those comments, reasserting that any withdrawal should be conditions-based. If al-Maliki and the Iraqi government were, in fact, insistent on a 16-month deadline, Iraqi troop readiness (or lack thereof) and facts on the ground be damned, then we would have little choice but to recognize the woefully misguided wishes of the sovereign nation of Iraq.
Did you notice the results from Rasmussen’s poll that came out today, and the questions they asked? To get a sense of the growing perception of progress in Iraq, I’ve also included last week’s numbers, which are in parentheses.
Will the situation in Iraq get better or worse over the coming six months?
Better 42% (37%)
Worse 23% (25%)
In the long run, the U.S. mission in Iraq will be seen as a …
Success 36% (33%)
Failure 39% (44%)
To best illustrate the absurd bias in the the NBC/WSJ’s timetable/withdrawal question, look at the results from this question asked in last week’s ABC News/Washington Post poll:
Obama has proposed a timetable to withdraw most U.S. forces from Iraq within 16 months of his taking office. McCain has opposed a specific timetable and said events should dictate when troops are withdrawn. Which approach do you prefer – a timetable or no timetable?
Timetable 50%
No timetable 49%
July 23rd, 2008 at 11:51 pm
I think as I said before its good to be optimistic but realistic. Meaning start thinking. Hey, we are behind, but we are going to fight like hell to change that. If McCain had that type of attitude and focused more on what he brings to the table and the KEY in all of this is marketing himself better then he would do better. The problem is he is not marketing himself as well as he should.
The other problem is, Obama is not fighting back yet. If he does and has, his media blitz that you know is coming McCain and the boys better be ready for it. I said earlier that McCain’s camp should be worried. In saying that not go cower and die but to use that worry to fight and run with it. However, fight getting the person who McCain is out not a filtered version, which is what some of his past staff has done.
Anyway, it is important as I said to take the good polls with the bad. Otherwise we can get biased and not see the whole picture. The bad news is McCain is down. The good news is he is not by a whole lot. However, things will change again; Obama is not making many mistakes so to count on that to win is a recipe for a disaster. This election should not be its about Obama but what both men have to offer the country. Whether we disagree with it or not and then vote. Huckabee again was right demonizing Obama is not going to get you over the top