Rasmussen War on Terror Survey

Who do you think is winning the war on terror?

• U.S./Allies 51% (48%)
• Terrorists 16% (20%)

Is the United States safer today than it was before the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks?

• Safer 44% (45%)
• Not safer 39% (37%)

In the long run, the U.S. mission in Iraq will be seen as a …

• Success 36% (33%)
• Failure 39% (44%)

Will the situation in Iraq get better or worse over the coming six months?

• Better 42% (37%)
• Worse 23% (25%)

Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 21. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 14 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Over half of American voters (51%) now believe the United States and its allies are winning the war on terror, the highest figure recorded in nearly four years by Rasmussen Reports in a nationwide survey.

Only 16% now think the terrorists are on top, while 27% view it as a stalemate. Prior to this week’s survey, the number who believe the terrorists are winning had never fallen below 20%.

Last July, just 36% thought the U.S. and its allies were winning. At that time, an equal number—36%–thought the terrorists were ahead.

Other indicators in the survey also show that Americans have growing confidence that things are looking up in the war on terror.

Forty-two percent (42%) now think the situation in Iraq will improve over the next six months. That’s up from 37% a week ago and 23% a year ago.

Only 23% now expect things to get worse in Iraq, down from 49% last July.

The gap also is narrowing dramatically between those who think history will judge the war in Iraq as a success – 36% now – versus those who think it will be viewed as a failure (39%).

These results continue a trend noted last week when 48% said the U.S. and its allies were winning versus 20% who saw the terrorists ahead. The 28-point difference was the most favorable margin recorded by Rasmussen Reports since tracking began in January 2004. The previous high was established on September 6, 2004, when 52% thought the U.S. and its allies were winning but 26% thought the terrorists were winning — a 26-point favorable margin.

Now 35 points separate those who think the U.S. is ahead as opposed to the terrorists.

For the first time in months, more Democrats (35%) also think the U.S. is winning versus the number who credit the terrorists with being ahead (26%), although nearly a third (31%) are undecided. Last week, only 27% of Democrats thought the U.S. was winning.

Forty-four percent (44%) of voters think the United States is safer today than before the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, but 39% disagree. Both figures are roughly comparable to the most optimistic figures on record.

Now 61% of men think the U.S. and its allies are winning the war on terror, up from 54% last week and 49% the week before. The number of women who agree has held steady at 43% for two weeks in a row, up from 37% a week earlier.

The percentage of Republicans who see the U.S. and its allies ahead also stayed roughly the same at 78%. Forty-five percent (45%) of unaffiliated voters, a bloc critical to the upcoming presidential election, agree, up two percentage points from a week earlier and 36% the week before that.

Thirty percent (30%) of likely Obama voters also see the U.S. winning, while 26% of them disagree.