Hello All, we should be optimistic and realistic. The are two other polls came out today and yesterday. that have Obama ahead by 6. We tend to pick only the polls that have him closer and ignore the others. By doing that we are not getting the full picture of what is actually happening. Yeah, I do not like Obamas politics and what he stands for. Nevertheless, alas as the link to the speech, I saw it he drew 100,000 people in GERMANY. He is just a candidate. I have not seen a person speak in the ways as a candidate in a long time I will give him that. McCain needs not to top it but at least make it an average presentation.
One thing if you notice in all the polls all of them is this. Lets face it Obama is ahead probably between 3-6 points. When we see Fox polls and polls like it have not you, notice a pattern that has taken place over the past several weeks, Obama’s number has changed but McCain’s really has not. He is stuck in the low 40’s and Obamas support has not gone to McCain really but it is has gone to und or I wont vote. Then other polls show the und and I will not vote get higher like in the Fox one. Once the people decided and they go back and forth between Obama and Und not McCain then that is not good news. I am just being realistic. We can be emotional, partisan rah rah McCain number one but these are the facts if McCain is to win this he has to I mean has to get 45 and slightly above on a Consistent basis if he does not it’s over. If he is down by 3-4 points by Nov it is over. If he is tied or Obama is ahead by one anything can happen but a tie electoral wise, then it goes to Obama because the new congress elects the next pres.
What we should be looking at in all these polls is not the number as much between the two but are McCain’s numbers not just in one poll but all of them combined or consistently getting out of the low 40’s. Along with getting ahead of him by 3-4 points and staying there on a consistent basis, it hasn’t happen since well before the primaries ended.
July 24th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
The tightening today is likely a result of Sunday’s polling dropping off.
July 24th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Very true, and tomorrow is likely to show a widening of Sen Obama’s lead, as Sen McCain possibly was leading in the poll that’s going to drop off.
July 24th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
New Fox News General Election Poll:
Obama 41
McCain 40
July 24th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
Here be the text of Obama’s speech in Berlin.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/07/a_world_that_stands_as_one.html
Wait and see if the one term ingenue gets a bump or not. I think he will, alas. It’s a good speech.
July 24th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
Crap. Bryan beat me to the new Fox Poll. well…here’s the link at least: http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/FoxPoll.pdf
July 24th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Hello All, we should be optimistic and realistic. The are two other polls came out today and yesterday. that have Obama ahead by 6. We tend to pick only the polls that have him closer and ignore the others. By doing that we are not getting the full picture of what is actually happening. Yeah, I do not like Obamas politics and what he stands for. Nevertheless, alas as the link to the speech, I saw it he drew 100,000 people in GERMANY. He is just a candidate. I have not seen a person speak in the ways as a candidate in a long time I will give him that. McCain needs not to top it but at least make it an average presentation.
One thing if you notice in all the polls all of them is this. Lets face it Obama is ahead probably between 3-6 points. When we see Fox polls and polls like it have not you, notice a pattern that has taken place over the past several weeks, Obama’s number has changed but McCain’s really has not. He is stuck in the low 40’s and Obamas support has not gone to McCain really but it is has gone to und or I wont vote. Then other polls show the und and I will not vote get higher like in the Fox one. Once the people decided and they go back and forth between Obama and Und not McCain then that is not good news. I am just being realistic. We can be emotional, partisan rah rah McCain number one but these are the facts if McCain is to win this he has to I mean has to get 45 and slightly above on a Consistent basis if he does not it’s over. If he is down by 3-4 points by Nov it is over. If he is tied or Obama is ahead by one anything can happen but a tie electoral wise, then it goes to Obama because the new congress elects the next pres.
What we should be looking at in all these polls is not the number as much between the two but are McCain’s numbers not just in one poll but all of them combined or consistently getting out of the low 40’s. Along with getting ahead of him by 3-4 points and staying there on a consistent basis, it hasn’t happen since well before the primaries ended.
July 24th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
Obama drew 40K in Philly the eve of the election and he got clobbered in the state. 100K in Germnay means nothing.