July 31, 2008
Poll Watch: Gallup Daily Tracking Update (7/31)
Holy crap. Obama has gone from a 9% lead to a mere 1% lead in less than a week. Given that Obama was up 4 yesterday, this means that McCain must’ve been up at least 2 points in the overnight numbers. I can’t believe how fast his bounce faded.
Gallup Daily General Election Tracking (7/31)
- Barack Obama 45% (46%)
- John McCain 44% (42%)
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The general-election results are based on combined data from July 28-30, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,679 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
http://race42008.com/2008/07/31/poll-watch-gallup-daily-tracking-update-731/trackback/
July 31st, 2008 at 12:28 pm
McCain!!!1!1!!11!!
July 31st, 2008 at 12:30 pm
Looking much better!!!
July 31st, 2008 at 12:30 pm
It’d be better for him not to slip in front of Obama at this time.
July 31st, 2008 at 12:34 pm
I am not excited at all about any numbers until after the conventions. I guarantee Obama will be back up at least by 9 between now and the election, even if it only is a post-convention bounce.
July 31st, 2008 at 12:35 pm
#3 I agree. The media will come down on McCain if he is ahead.
btw, I see the media is not reporting another big story,- that Move-on has broken their promise not to run ads (after Obama waived matching funds) and are now going to attack McCain.
The left is starting to get worried.
July 31st, 2008 at 12:40 pm
Now we are cooking.
July 31st, 2008 at 12:41 pm
That said, I think Obama has to be sweating bullets.
In recent memory all other Dem candidates have had a much higher level of support at this stage. It’s not like he is going through the Wright debacle again to lower his numbers.
He is getting all the positive media coverage the MSM can manage, yet still, a big chunk of voters, who at this point normally support the Dem, are unwilling to support him. If they don’t like him now, what will convince them to like him later.
July 31st, 2008 at 12:41 pm
I also think Obama made a mistake by playing the race card yesterday. It was obvious that was always going to be their trump, the fail-safe, the plan B. Basically the Obama campaign and the media(well, they’re really the same entity)are going to spend the next few months convincing everyone that to vote against Obama means you’re a racist.
I think there’s huge backlash that could develop. People don’t like being accused, especially in battleground states. The PUMAs and Clintonistas have already seen this movie and the know what Barry is all about. I think this will only antagonize them further and push them towards McCain.
So, McCain is basically tied in the daily tracking polls and the poll avg has him within 2 pts or so at the end of July.
That’s quite frnakly a miracle as I read tons of articles abuot how he’d fall behind by 15-20 during the summer months.
He’s right there. He has the drilling and energy issue to pound Obama wih and he has his VP announcement to shock the world and show he’s in it to win it.
Pound the drilling, keep things steady, wait to Obama to screw up big time with Kaine or Sebelius or some other joke VP, announce Powell by the convention, and coast to victory.
Pretty simple.
July 31st, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Just look at the track record for this poll and you’ll see why EVERYONE SHOULD IGNORE IT!
http://www.political-buzz.com/
July 31st, 2008 at 12:46 pm
Conservatism rules
July 31st, 2008 at 12:52 pm
CAMPAIGN TUNES RED & BLUE
John McCain can count on the C&W vote. Country music man and “Nashville Star” judge John Rich, of multiplatinum country duo Big & Rich, has penned a campaign anthem, “Raisin’ McCain,” to rally the redneck nation behind the Republican presidential nominee. The song will debut tomorrow night when Rich hosts the Country First Concert in Panama City, Fla., which will feature an appearance by McCain himself. Meanwhile, rapper Ludacris has composed a tune for Barack Obama that’s more trash-talking than melody. “Politics: Obama Is Here” slams Hillary Clinton as an “irrelevant bitch,” McCain as old, and President Bush as “mentally handicapped.” The rant has been condemned by Obama.
July 31st, 2008 at 12:52 pm
Matt, the track record??? You’ll have to do better than that.
It’s not so much the track record tha twithin the same poll he’s imploded this week. A net 8 pt gain for McCain. Bounce totally gone. Dropping a pt a day, among RV, probably more among LV.
And other polls confirm the trends. Look at Rasmussem. The Q polls have him dropping in all the swing states. ARG had McCain ahead.
For him to be at 45% given everything that has gone on is not good.
Just wait till McCain adds Powell and Obama is forgotten about. It’s not tool ate for the Clintons. The PUMAs will pounce.
July 31st, 2008 at 12:56 pm
#7 – If they don’t like him now, what will convince them to like him later.
**********************
Nothing. Since Barack Obama is a “blank slate” for many people right now and he’s getting such positive press, just imagine what will happen when people start finding out about Jeremiah Wright, Rezko, his non-accomplishments in Chicago, his political ploy to run unopposed on the Dem ballot in Illinois, Bill Ayers … should I continue?
There’s only red lights ahead for folks who have only heard about BO on the news media.
I watched this video again this morning. Nothing has changed this interview:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jj4VK9wVAi0
When people realize that Obama is nothing special, just another politician, they will begin to look for qualifications and accomplishments, and guess what? There are none.
Obama: All headlines. No story.
Here’s something from the Daily Show that will put a smile on your face. Barack’s problem in the South:
http://web.israelinsider.com/Articles/Politics/13026.htm
July 31st, 2008 at 1:00 pm
In the latest Romney thread, I made the point that Mitt’s numbers would have been lower if not for his strength in caucus states, where a strong local organization and/or a fairly small number of very dedicated supporters can deliver a win. In the winner-take-all Republican primaries, McCain’s strength among less activist republicans was enough to put him ahead in the delegate counts and bag him the nomination. This latter advantage was not present for Hillary in the proportionally-allocated Democratic primaries, allowing Obama to rack up big victories in caucus states and more or less cancel Hillary’s wins in the delegate-rich primary states. If not for the caucuses, we’d probably have Hillary as the Dem nominee, and she might very well be leading McCain by a larger margin than Obama currently is.
July 31st, 2008 at 1:00 pm
#8 – I agree with you, Jim. Big mistake to play the race card. Not many folks care about Obama’s race. If he was Black and conservative, most liberal Blacks would probably say he wasn’t really Black.
I don’t care if Obama is purple. He’s the most unqualified, inexperienced candidate to run for president – ever!
July 31st, 2008 at 1:04 pm
I have the last three nights:
45-41
44-48
43-47
Mac first
July 31st, 2008 at 1:07 pm
Here’s the text to the new “song.” Word has it that Barack Obama has distanced himself fromthe rapper.
Ludacris Attacks Hillary Clinton, McCain, Bush in New ‘Politics: Obama Is Here’ Song
By PoliJAM | July 30, 2008
Below are the lyrics and audio to a new song released by rapper, and Obama supporter Ludacris. In the song Ludacris says Hillary Clinton is an ‘irrelevant b^$&%*,’ “McCain don’t belong in ANY chair unless he’s paralyzed,” and that “Bush is mentally handicapped.”
I’m back on it like I just signed my record deal
yeah the best is here, the Bentley Coup paint is dripping wet, it got sex appeal
never should have hated
you never should’ve doubted him
with a slot in the president’s iPod Obama shattered ‘em
Said I handled his biz and I’m one of his favorite rappers
Well give Luda a special pardon if I’m ever in the slammer
Better yet put him in office, make me your vice president
Hillary hated on you, so that b^$&%* is irrelevant
Jesse talking slick and apologizing for what?
if you said it then you meant it how you want it have a gut!
and all you other politicians trying to hate on my man,
watch us win a majority vote in every state on my man
you can’t stop what’s bout to happen, we bout to make history
the first black president is destined and it’s meant to be
the threats ain’t fazing us, the nooses or the jokes
so get off your ass, black people, it’s time to get out and vote!
paint the White House black and I’m sure that’s got ‘em terrified
McCain don’t belong in ANY chair unless he’s paralyzed
Yeah I said it cause Bush is mentally handicapped
Ball up all of his speeches and I throw em like candy wrap
cause what you talking I hear nothing even relevant
and you the worst of all 43 presidents
get out and vote or the end will be near
the world is ready for change because Obama is here!
cause Obama is here
The world is ready for change because Obama is here!
July 31st, 2008 at 1:08 pm
#13 – meant to say “nothing has changed since this interview.”
July 31st, 2008 at 1:12 pm
The Obama campaign described Ludacris as a talented artist.
July 31st, 2008 at 1:12 pm
Haha – Beth, now if only we could find a way to have this idiot “musician” follow Obama around and blare this sort of noise at all of his campaign events.
July 31st, 2008 at 1:14 pm
Oh man. If Obama wants to play the race card his friends from the Hood aren’t going to help one bit. If O’Reilly and Co. start playing this it’s not going to help Barry one bit.
July 31st, 2008 at 1:20 pm
#20 – According to Ludacris, his songs are on BO’s ipod! Hey, maybe he’ll choose Ludacris as his VP nominee. Now THAT would be the ticket!!
Can you imagine what the environment is like in BO’s brain? I guess it might look like a hard-boiled egg – or cute little chickie! Check out the new MoveOn.org ad about Hopium (something i guess you catch, like the a virus, when you drink the BO Koolaid):
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/07/30/moveon-s-bad-egg.aspx
July 31st, 2008 at 1:22 pm
Making this election a referrendum of white people’s tolerance for black people is the surest way to create a Bradly effect in this election. Basically, uncommitted white voters will star telling pollsters they are voting for Obama and voters who might be leaning a bit to McCain will say they are undecided. Then, on election day, both groups will vote for the candidate they actually think is the best qualified.
July 31st, 2008 at 1:25 pm
Here’s the video from the ever-ludicrous Ludacris:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ulcGldJlKiA
July 31st, 2008 at 1:35 pm
#21 – Adam, my boyfriend of six years is Black. (He hated being called an African American – thought Africans were arrogant!)
He was one of the most racist people I had ever met. Granted, he was raised in the Deep South – Mississippi, but he would always say, “I hate that you’re white.” What he hated more was that I was a Republican.
Anyway, he told me that he didn’t want to live around “his people.” They scared him.
This election is bringing up a lot feelings and ideas people have concerning race. I think it’s very unfortunate that Barack Obama has alluded to race as many times as he has. Most people I know don’t even think about it as a factor. I live in the S.F. Bay Area and people here are incredibly tolerant of all ethnicities. You could be sitting at a restaurant on any ordinary day and have people from several different countries sitting in the same place, peacefully eating dinner together.
I think the words, actions and associations of Barack Obama has done some damage to race relations in our country.
I think most Americans today are more concerned about the illegal immigration problem and radical Muslims.
July 31st, 2008 at 1:56 pm
Tanda, where do you get those numbers…
I do think McCain won last night as well. To drop from 9 to 1 in a week, he had to take a day or two over the past few days…
Perhaps the liberal media will be shocked to see McCain up tomorrow in the Gallup, which makes the poll the other day a lot less of an outlier perhaps.
July 31st, 2008 at 2:17 pm
by by bump
July 31st, 2008 at 2:32 pm
Yeah, Beth I think that some people in this country are already going there.
I don’t think that people should read into Obama’s race or McCain about his age. Both of which are issues in this election and they should not be. Age Health- Race-Stereotypes. I have bi racial daughter, whose mom died of breast cancer 12 years ago, Being Mormon and married to a black woman was not approved of when we lived in Virginia back then.
In the south alot of people still hold prejudices whether they speak about them or not. I am also in the bay are.. That is a big melting pot community we can’t really compare it with other parts of the southern country. Because of the prejudice, there is still hate on the black and white side.
What I truly hope is that as someone posted on here that no matter who wins the election that it does not come down to because McCain is too old or because Obama is black in key states.
If it comes, down to issues that’s cool in the Bay area I am sure it will but in some parts of the country it may not.
July 31st, 2008 at 2:43 pm
#27 – I think you’re right.
Look, people don’t feel comfortable with Barack Obama.
I think one of the main reasons is that he has never established himself.
He came out of nowhere onto the national stage.
Most people use logic and reason to make judgments. How do you judge what a person will do in the future? You look at what they have done in the past.
What if they haven’t done very much in the past? What if their record of accomplishments and qualifications is slim? Very slim?
Isn’t it logical to look at the next best thing — associations, friends, background, people that have influenced them?
That’s all we really have with Barack Obama.
John McCain is a known element in America. He’s been around “forever.” There are just no surprises with this guy. People feel comfortable with that. Plus, he’s an American Hero. He put his literal life on the line for our country.
One of the most damning things I’ve seen on the Internet is when people comment,
“Here’s why I’m not voting for Obama. And then they link to the photo of Obama, Hillary and Richardson on a platform and Obama doesn’t have his hand on his heart during the National Anthem or Pledge of Allegiance.”
A picture is worth a a thousand words.
July 31st, 2008 at 2:52 pm
MVRed, I think the spread (I could give the numbers if you like) was more likely like this (from most recent back): +1, -3, -3, -5, -9, -9. That, to me, looks like a pattern of eroding support from a very high point. It’s possible that the recent result is on the edge of the margin of error, and we should see tomorrow whether that’s the case. If Sen McCain doesn’t tie or take the lead, we’ll pretty much know that Sen Obama will move back to around a 2-4% lead at the end of the weekend (barring a big event, such as naming a VP).
July 31st, 2008 at 3:48 pm
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