CNN/Opinion Research General Election

• Barack Obama/Joe Biden 49% (47%)
• John McCain/Sarah Palin 48% (47%)

Survey of 927 registered voters was conducted August 29-31. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 23-24 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Four in 10 Americans are not familiar with Palin. Thirty-eight percent of those questioned viewed her favorably and 21 percent unfavorably.

Men appear to have a slightly more favorable opinion of Palin than women; 41 percent of men view her favorably, five points higher than women.

Americans seem evenly divided on whether McCain made a wise choice in selecting Alaska’s first term governor, who’s been in office for less than two years.

Fifty-two percent rate the selection of Palin as excellent or pretty good; 46 percent rate it as fair or poor.

Is Palin qualified to be president?

Fifty percent say she is unqualified to assume the presidency if that becomes necessary; 45 percent say she’s prepared for the White House.

In recent history, the only running mate to earn less confidence from the public was Vice President Dan Quayle in 1992.

Ultimately however, the Palin pick may have minimal effect on the race for the White House.

Almost six in 10 Americans say Palin’s selection as McCain’s running mate will have no effect on their vote. One in five say it makes them more likely to vote for McCain; one in five say it makes them less likely.

Three quarters of all voters think McCain chose a female running mate specifically because he thought adding a woman to the Republican ticket would help him win in November.

“If McCain was hoping to boost his share of the women’s vote, it didn’t work,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

“Women now appear slightly more likely to vote for Obama than they did a week ago, 53 percent now, compared to 50 percent. But McCain picked up a couple of points among men. More important, McCain solidified his party’s base with the Palin selection, dropping Obama’s share of the Republican vote six points to just 5 percent now. The Palin selection did not help among women — that may come later — but it did appeal to Republican loyalists.”

Note: It is great to be back on R4′08. I am back at college in Eastern Ohio and look forward to providing coverage on what’s going on in Ohio and Western Pa.

On Saturday morning, myself and 70 other students from my college drove 30 miles to go see John McCain and his brand-new Veep, Sarah Palin. Students at my conservative, Catholic college were psyched about Palin. On Friday when she was announced, the buzz around campus was about Palin and it was all positive. My college draws conservative students from across America, so I think it provided a real snapshot of how young conservatives now feel about the ticket. I emphasize now, because there was a big chunk of students I know who were not enthused at all about McCain… Most could stomach voting for him, but ask them to knock on doors, make phone calls? Not a chance. Another portion of those students were going to write in Ron Paul or not vote at all. That all changed with the Palin pick. Students are asking how to get involved, and those that weren’t going to pull the lever for McCain are now.

The event was simply awesome — full of energy and buzz. John Rich of “Big and Rich” gave a great performance, complete with the crowd singing to “Save a Horse, Ride a Cowbody.” Lynn Swann gave a great speech as well, and obviously is a popular figure in Steelers territory. I have to say after hearing Tom Ridge speak, I am relieved he is not our veep. He wasn’t exciting and to be honest, just rambled away. I didn’t like him from the start because he is a pro-abortion Catholic, but I found another reason to be opposed to him on the ticket yesterday.

The highlight of the event was when the Straight Talk Express pulled onto the field, which was unexpected. The crowd went wild. The McCain and Palin families were greeted by thousands of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia voters swinging McCain “Terrible Towels,” waving American signs, and holding up fresh-of-the-press McCain-Palin signs.

The usual chants broke out at all the right moments — “John Mc-Cain,” “USA! USA! USA” etc, but a new one was added to the mix — “Sarah! Sarah! Sarah!” It was great, and really symbolized something new and exciting being added to the McCain image.

The speech was the same as the one in Dayton, which was expected. Those of us who watched had watched the Dayton event knew what was coming, but all know the wisdom of the words, “Stay on message.”

At the end, many in our group who were standing in front of the stage got to shake hands with the McCain family and the Palin family. It was a great trade-off, since many in our group had seats right behind home plate, but didn’t get to shake hands with the next president and vice president.

Overall, awesome event. The only McCain event I’ve been to with comparable energy was McCain’s victory party in New Hampshire. I am glad to see that the Washington event wasn’t a fluke either, as today’s event in Missouri drew even more people. The students I went with are ready to knock on doors and make countless phone calls to help deliver Ohio and western Pa.

Palin is a genius pick and has enthused the base and at the same time will bring in the PUMA’s.

Pictures of the event after the jump, courtesy of Katie M.
(more…)

After months of deriding Barack Obama’s inexperience, many conservatives are lauding Sarah Palin.  This strikes the left (and some on the right) as fundamentally inconsistent.  Palin, they insist, knows less about foreign affairs then Obama.  They may be right (perhaps Russian and Canadian issues excluded).  But, there’s something unsatisfying about this argument; using depth of knowledge as a proxy for broader “experience”.  American voters simply do not think this way.  Most of us would recoil somewhat at the prospect of the folks from Brookings or AEI running the country.  It’s not that depth of knowledge doesn’t matter, but rather that it’s only 1 of the 2 big components in governing.  Yes, you ought understand the particulars of an issue, but you should also be able to take that knowledge, execute decisions based on it, and deal with the consequences.  This other component is not quite the “judgment” of which Obama speaks, but it’s something very near.  Can this person assess information and act accordingly?  Can they respond to challenges as they arise?  Conservatives are concerned about Barack Obama’s experience precisely because he seems shaky, to say the least, on both counts.

He hasn’t spent long enough digesting the issues, to give us much confidence about his depth of knowledge.  And he has never held a job that allows us to assess his ability to make decisions of consequence,  sometimes under severe time constraints, and often with serious opposition.  Palin is, at least, more comforting then Obama in at least one respect; she has had to make decisions, as an executive (as both a Governor and Mayor), and she’s dealt with the consequences.  She’s managed something.  She’s been a leader.  This isn’t just a vague sort of advantage; it’s the lifeblood of governing.  I would be worried about Barack Obama if he’d spent 20 years in the senate, because I have no sense that he’s ever taken anything approaching a political risk, or tackled something that requires follow through.  John McCain, despite his career as a legislator, has manifestly done this (CFR, the Surge, Immigration Reform, etc).  Voters intuit the difference (they generally chose Governors), and this is why the conservative gushing over Sarah Palin isn’t necessarily hypocrisy.  She may not be able to name all of Iraq’s provinces, but if that were the prime qualification for the Presidency, Henry Kissinger would have been President long ago.  Instead, she’s accumulated the sort of experience that gives me some confidence that, once she learns about all these provinces, she’ll be willing and able to deal with whatever sort of crises arise.  This isn’t everything, but it’s a whole lot.  And it’s more then I can say for Barack Obama.

It’s ironic that Sarah Palin got the conservative base out of bed and woke them from a deep apathy.

Over 20,000 people came to see John McCain and Sarah Palin today.

Take a look at this audience-

I think John McCain made a wise decision.

Let me begin by saying that a hurricane is no laughing matter and is nothing to play politics with. Scores of people may be about to lose their homes and their possessions, and have their lives interrupted in a way that will impact them for weeks, months, or years. This is a reality of the Hobbesian world in which we live, imperfect and often destructive.

That said, the Republican National Convention is scheduled to begin tomorrow, and it will either happen or it won’t happen, and nature isn’t going to take the convention into consideration, so Republicans will have to take nature into consideration and decide what is the best course of action. Current reports are that the convention will basically be on hold as of Monday, with Tuesday through Thursday tentatively scheduled to go on as planned. I actually think that Sen. McCain may want to call on the RNC to suspend activity until Wednesday at the earliest. Here’s why.

First, I think that McCain has already gotten a considerable bounce out of his selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate. This selection changed the conversation away from Obama and towards McCain, and it also excited Republicans throughout the country. That’s exactly what the first night or two of the convention is supposed to do.

Secondly, I think that McCain may actually experience a negative bounce if voters remember for four straight nights that he is a Republican. This is especially true if President Bush speaks, is doubly true if Vice President Cheney speaks, and is probably also true if too many standard issue Republicans speak to the nation during prime time. There are only about a half dozen Republicans that I want the nation to hear from at the RNC: Sen. McCain and Cindy McCain, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty (because he speaks to working class Midwesterners), Rudy Giuliani (because he speaks to ornery Rust Belt voters), Bobby Jindal, and Independent Joe Lieberman. Hearing from the John Thunes and KBHs of the world is not going to help McCain, and hearing from a lot of Republicans may actually hurt him.

I doubt McCain will do it, but I think he should suspend the convention until Wednesday, and then amend the schedule to whatever extent possible to ensure that the aforementioned Republicans (and Joe) speak during prime time. Monday and Tuesday should be spent with Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin on the ground in Louisiana. That will maximize exposure to the ticket and to McCain supporters who can help win this election for the senator, and minimize associations between McCain and the Republican Party. Afterward, the only Republicans we’ll hear from for the next two months are McCain and Palin, who are both very hard to dislike and neither of whom is associated with the corruption, incompetence, and failed policies of the Beltway GOP.

Krauthammer:

In her rollout today, Palin spoke a lot about change. McCain is now trying to steal “change” from Obama, a contest McCain will lose in an overwhelmingly Democratic year with an overwhelmingly unpopular incumbent Republican administration. At the same time, he’s weakening his strong suit — readiness vs. unreadiness.

The McCain campaign is reveling in the fact that Palin is a game changer. But why a game changer when you’ve been gaining? To gratuitously undercut the remarkably successful “Is he ready to lead” line of attack seems near suicidal.

Though I’m not a particular Krauthammer fan, I do have some respect for his seriousness as a writer. But, this strikes me as fairly unserious commentary. I am considerably less sanguine about the “is he ready to lead?” slogan and it’s potential to propel McCain to victory. As Jonah Goldberg notes, a very similar line of attack failed Hillary in the primaries. But, I’ll concede for a moment that McCain made up some ground using this meme. How much ground? According to realclearpolitics, McCain went from trailing Obama by 6.8 points at the end of June to trailing by 1.6 points just prior to the Biden selection.

This after the most brilliant and memorable series of ads of the entire cycle; this after a flailing Obama campaign produced a number of listless and unremarkable ads; this after McCain ratched up ad buys, outspending Obama significantly in this respect. It got him all of 5 points and a now respectable 2nd place. But, as Krauthammer no doubt knows, in politics there’s nothing particularly respectable about second place. I happen to think Obama is unusually vulnerable to charges of radicalism (Ayers and BAIPA) and McCain could have made a good deal of progress on that meme, but the stock “unready to lead” attack had already lost much of it’s heft by the time the Democratic Convention rolled around. It simply wasn’t going to bring McCain across the finish line (absent a game-changing, stunningly serious pick like Powell or Petraeus) and Mac understood this.

I think this is true for fairly obvious reasons. Absent signs of criminal incompetence, a majority of voters don’t and haven’t worried themselves terribly over the experience issue. Furthermore, this an economy election, and it’s extremely doubful that McCain could have made it into a security election. There are only so many ads you can run of burning buildings and warzones, in an economy election, before phrases like “fearmonger” and “out of touch” become bywords.

How does the Palin pick address this dynamic? It does a few things quite well, but first I want to address what it doesn’t do: it doesn’t remove the “experience” issue from the table. Any discussion which begins “Is your VP EVEN more experienced then our P” redounds to our benefit. To the extent that this comparison is continually made, and Palin isn’t embarrassing herself on the trail (an admitted big if), it lowers Obama and raises Palin. It’s frankly a stupid line of attack for the Democrats to use, and at some point someone’s going to respond “well, is Barack Obama ready to be President, if God Forbid, something happens to Joe Biden?” This is a comparison we simply cannot lose unless Palin begins to sound meaningfully out of her depth. And I suspect it will be surprisingly easy to keep Governor Palin in relatively controlled settings, until she can be brought up to the speed. The Democrats, after all, have kept Obama behind a teleprompter for more then a year.

Now, here’s what the pick actively does for McCain: it allows him to meaningfully attack Obama’s change mantle. There has always been this peculiar incongruity to the campaign; as a relative outsider, Obama has behaved like a political insider his entire career (extreme partisanship, ducking controversial votes, etc), while McCain, as a relative insider, has behaved like a political outsider his entire career. But, McCain has never been well suited to exploiting this. He’s a member of the incumbent party, which reinforces the insider label. He’s spent 25 years in Washington. All of his best lines of defense only dredge up old wounds and harm his standing with conservatives. For instance, how powerful would a clip from a 2000 McCain v. Bush debate be to independents in this context? Or a clip from 2003 or 2004 of McCain unloading on Bush for the Iraq strategy, juxtaposed with Obama’s “there’s not a whole lot of difference between my position and George Bush’s [on Iraq]“? Pretty powerful, but as The Maverick, McCain does not have the leeway with conservatives to make such an add. Some of George Bush’s luster has faded in those circles, and many of these folks could be persuaded to run away from him for expediency. But, not if it means running to McCain.

W is still more popular with 70% of Republicans then John McCain is. But, they may much more readily divorce themselves from Bush, if they sense they’re marrying Governor Palin. McCain can now run these ads; and he ought to throw in clips of Sarah taking on Alaska’s corrupt Republican establishment while he’s at it. And Independents who had previously defaulted to Obama, because a young black man seems to more vicerally represent change then an old Navy Man, will now take a second look at McCain/Palin. Can they, perhaps, have the actual reform which they sense McCain will bring, without abandoning the sense of “making history”? These are not minor benefits and they potentially allow McCain to eviscerate literally the ONLY argument Obama has for his candidacy. And it seems worth the risks that Palin presents.

I’ve spent the last couple of days feeling out the reactions of various coworkers, friends, and acquaintances over McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate. My anecdotal findings are similar to that of NRO’s Jonathan Adler:

Last night I attended a 50th wedding anniversary party in Austintown, Ohio, just outside of Youngstown. This is Reagan Democrat terrirtory — working class, church-going, union member types. Given this, it was interesting to hear what people had to say about Sarah Palin — and it was almost uniformly positive, very positive. I heard people explain that they were inspired by her life story and career, and that having her on the ticket made the race exciting. Said another — who had never voted Republican until he pulled the lever for Bush in 2004, but was now committed to McCain — “she’s just like us.” I’m well aware that those with whom I spoke may not be representative, but it was interesting nonetheless.

My own findings? Palin plays very well among members of demographic groups that probably voted for John Kerry in 2004. More specifically, folks who are warming to McCain because of Palin are more likely to be female than to be male, tend to be over 50 instead of under 50, are more likely to be Catholic or Jewish than Protestant, and are more likely to live in suburbs or small towns than urban areas.

Incidentally, I do know some folks who are less likely to vote for McCain because of Palin, but these folks tend to be younger, male, and urbane. I have yet to encounter a female voter under age 35 who is moved by the Palin pick, but none seem turned off by the pick either. Palin’s appeal tends to be concentrated among middle-aged and older women, which is a good appeal to have if you’re on a Republican presidential ticket, because those are the voters who actually show up to vote and who often decide elections.

It’s hard to see McCain losing this election if significant numbers of middle-aged suburban women vote for him, and McCain/Palin just feels more culturally acceptable to these women than Obama/Biden. Anyone looking for a blowout either way, though, would be better off preparing for a long election night.

The fact is that the disaster was that NOLA got hit by a hurricane and, most significantly, a levee break, and will always remain vulnerable due to its geographic location and the 200+ year neglect of the fact that natural forces lead inexorably to it being a city in the middle of the Gulf like a bowl in a sink full of water.

It should not be re-built as a large city, period.

And one more issue: nursing homes and hospitals.

Hurricanes approach NOLA most years. The act of moving nursing home residents and the those in feeble health in hospitals, etc., and of itself, has a high mortality rate. Most years levees don’t break and these folks live.

See the problem?

Should we have nursing homes located in city that we will be regularly evacuating?

Obviously not, and this is the metaphor that the left can’t let see the light of day.

I pray that Gustav eats a Spanish omelet before landfall and burps in the water.

But if Gustav waits to hurl on land and re-visits Burbon Street, what I hope is learned from this exercise is what a false history the msm wrote last time; that We the People in our localities and States are responsible for ourselves and can do a better job that any government in any event, especially one more than 1500 miles away; that Black folks, especially black men, can overcome their liberal plantation masters, especially under the leadership of a self-empowerment Indian-American Republican Governor and weather this storm like men; and that everyone realizes at the end of the day that the Presidential TV show is one for the MSM beltway agenda barely relevant to life on Planet Earth.

I hope we can learn the lessons without more deaths of nursing home residents, and here’s to hoping the msm let’s America see the real heroes this time.

Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns Legal Editor for The Minority and HinzSight Reports “The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race.” - The Chief Justice Race 4 2008 “One man with courage makes a majority.” - Andrew Jackson

Gallup Daily General Election Tracking (8/31)

• Barack Obama 48%
• John McCain 42%

Survey of 2,730 registered voters was conducted August 28-30. The margin of error is ±2 percentage points.

Some are arguing that anything the RNC does to help Hurricane victims at this point will be a helpless ploy for votes. Could be, but if Dems want to use Katrina for their own political maneuvering, then why can’t Republicans use the current incoming disaster to right those past wrongs?

Now here would be my plan, if I was RNC chair: Have all the RNC top people making emergency kits, boxing supplies and collecting donations door to door. Make any one who wants to attend the convention donate some time. The topper…tell the media if they want in for photo’s, video, etc., they need to donate at least 2 hours a person themselves.

Rasmussen Daily General Election Tracking (8/31)

• Barack Obama 47%
• John McCain 44%

With Leaners

• Barack Obama 49%
• John McCain 46%

Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)

• Barack Obama 57% / 41% (+16%)
• John McCain 56% / 43% (+13%)

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points.

After the pick of Biden and the DNC, here’s how things stand (the polls obviously have not caught up with McCain’s pick of Palin for Veep yet): Obama 278, McCain 247 (with 13 tied).

Here’s what other sites are predicting:

As usual this year, it almost all comes down to NV, CO, and VA.

I really, sincerely hope they end up doing this. It would be a masterstroke of genius politically speaking and would be amazing help for the soon-to-be-victims of the latest hurricane in the LA/MS region. From CNN:

A senior McCain source said Saturday that officials are considering turning the convention into a service event, a massive telethon to raise money for the Red Cross and other agencies to help with the hurricane.

“He wants to do something service-oriented if and when the storm hits and it’s as bad as its expected to be now,” the McCain source said.

They are also hoping to get McCain himself to a storm-affected area as soon as possible.

I’ve been on three short-term trips to Bay St. Louis, MS to help the victims of Hurricane Katrina, so my heart goes out to the folks that are in the Gustav’s path now. A national fundraiser as a part of the RNC would provide a lift and encouragement to them - as well as a lift for how folks view the GOP in general.

It’s only one poll, and it’s Zogby. But here’s some amazing weekend news for you:

Zogby National General Election

• McCain/Palin - 47%
• Obama/Biden - 45%

Survey was conducted Aug 29-30 after McCain announced Palin as his running mate, or 2,020 likely voters and has an MoE of 2.2%.

A masterful move by Team McCain if this is verified by Gallup or Rasmussen in the next few days.

Judging by today’s USA Today poll, McCain and Palin won’t be able rely on the excitement to not die down, especially if the hurricane delays the convention.

Palin is going to have to show that she has what it takes, and not take this excitement that has built around her for granted.

From Fox News and USA Today:

ST. PAUL, Minn. – Most voters are unfamiliar with John McCain’s new running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, and many question her qualifications to be president, according to a USA TODAY/Gallup poll.

Meanwhile, another Gallup poll shows Barack Obama maintaining an 8 percentage point lead over John McCain following the end of the Democratic convention Thursday.

Republicans begin their four-day convention Monday here even as Hurricane Gustav picks up steam as it approaches the Gulf Coast. Palin is scheduled to speak Wednesday.

In the poll taken Friday, 39 percent said she is ready to serve as president if needed, 33 percent said she isn’t and 29 percent have no opinion.

That’s the lowest rating any running mate has had since then-Indiana Sen. Dan Quayle was selected in 1988 to join George H.W. Bush’s team.

By contrast, 57 percent of voters rated Delaware Sen. Joe Biden as qualified after Obama selected him last week. Eighteen percent said he wasn’t qualified.

Meanwhile, the Gallup daily tracking poll shows good news for Obama, following the close of the Democratic National Convention and his high-profile nomination acceptance speech Thursday.

The poll, taken from Wednesday to Friday, showed Obama leading McCain by 49 percent to 41 percent for the second day in a row — a campaign high for him.

Before the convention, the two presidential candidates were tied at 45 percent.

My blood pressure is through the roof:

John McCain was aiming to make history with his pick of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, and historians say he succeeded.

Presidential scholars say she appears to be the least experienced, least credentialed person to join a major-party ticket in the modern era.

So unconventional was McCain’s choice that it left students of the presidency literally “stunned,” in the words of Joel Goldstein, a St. Louis University law professor and scholar of the vice presidency. “Being governor of a small state for less than two years is not consistent with the normal criteria for determining who’s of presidential caliber,” said Goldstein.

“I think she is the most inexperienced person on a major party ticket in modern history,” said presidential historian Matthew Dallek.

…

…

!?!?!?!

I think I may throw a fit if Barack Obama continues to knock John McCain for being a life-long member of the Washington establishment while the federal government failed to make progress on energy independence.

Barack, turn around and look at the man standing behind you on stage.

Joe Biden has been a member of that same establishment since the Nixon Adminstration.

A simply ridiculous argument.

I am not doing this to appease Hillary Clinton’s supporters.

This is utter misogyny.

Nothing tops The New Republic’s blog, The Plank:

The selection of Palin doesn’t simply, as others have pointed out, undermine the notion that Obama is too inexperienced to be president; it gives Obama the chance to actually take the edge on national security while making John McCain’s age a central issue of the campaign.

Whatever the political calculations involved in picking a veep, the most important qualification for the vice presidency is the ability to assume the presidency in a crisis. Given that of the last 12 presidents, three have either died or resigned, this is hardly a hypothetical consideration…Could Sarah Palin conceivably manage this task?

I’m going to try to use language acceptable for a PG-rated blog: how dare they? How dare they unabashedly support a man who has spent his entire Senate tenure running for president and accept it as axiomatic that he is prepared to be commander-in-chief, all the while criticizing a woman who is unquestionably more experienced than Barack Obama? Sarah Palin has executive experience as governor, served on an energy commission, governed a town, has fought corruption all of her career, and by all indications is intelligent and thoughtful. And these people have the gall to question whether Sarah Palin — our vice-presidential nominee — is ready to serve as president when she isn’t even running for the post, all the while supporting Barack Obama? And moreover, they state that Palin gives Obama the national security edge?! How!?

This is utterly blatant misogyny. There is no other possible explanation.

UPDATE: Some of you think I am overreacting. I am not. Would a man have faced such criticism from the left? We already have our answer: No, he did not.

Gallup Daily General Election Tracking (8/30)

• Barack Obama 49%
• John McCain 41%

Survey of 2,727 registered voters was conducted August 27-29. The margin of error is ±2 percentage points.

Hat-tip: R4′08 reader Gery.

Barack Obama was a U.S. Senator for 754 days before he began his full-time run for the Presidency.

Sarah Palin was Governor of Alaska for 603 days before she began her campaign for the Vice-Presidency.

As the head of his Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee, Obama never held a meeting on Afghanistan. As the Governor of Alaska, Gov. Palin is the CiC of the Alaska Nation Guard.

Both of candidates have made trips to the Middle East during their time in office.

So tell me, how exactly Obama’s 151 day advantage make him more qualified to be CiC than Sarah Palin, the person who occupies the #2 spot on the GOP ticket?

Here we go…

After her debut in Dayton and a rush of media coverage, a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that 53% now have a favorable opinion of Palin while just 26% offer a less flattering assessment.

Palin earns positive reviews from 78% of Republicans, 26% of Democrats and 63% of unaffiliated voters. Obviously, these numbers will be subject to change as voters learn more about her in the coming weeks. Among all voters, 29% have a Very Favorable opinion of Palin while 9% hold a Very Unfavorable view.

By way of comparison, on the day he was selected as Barack Obama’s running mate, Delaware Senator Joseph Biden was viewed favorably by 43% of voters.

…

Palin’s selection may have already provided a short-term boost for McCain by muting any further convention bounce following Obama’s successful acceptance speech on Thursday night. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll on Saturday shows little change from the numbers released on Friday morning.

In the new survey, 35% of voters say the selection of Palin makes them more likely to vote for McCain while 33% say they are less likely to do so. Most Republicans say they are more likely to vote for Palin and most Democrats say the opposite. As for voters not affiliated with either major party, 37% are more likely to vote for McCain and 28% less likely to do so. Those numbers are a bit more positive than initial reaction to Biden.

Looks like McCain has won the veepstakes game. Now onto the convention.

Democrats are already formulating the scare tactics against Sarah Palin that they plan to use on social moderates like myself. Following are a couple of the most recent tacks the Left is taking and my responses to them as someone who is most certainly not a so-con but still enamored with Sarah. Thanks to Hot Air for doing the leg work on this.

Myth: Sarah Palin is a Creationist who wants to teach Creationism in public schools!

FACT: I don’t know what Sarah believes regarding the origin of the species, but it it most certainly not the case that Sarah wants to use my tax dollars to teach my kids about religion or philosophy in science class. If she did, of course, there’d be a problem, as corrupting kids’ understanding of science with my tax dollars ain’t cool. But when asked about the issue during her race for governor in Alaska, Sarah simply stated that kids should not be prevented from debating these issues in class. Here’s Sarah in her own words:

“I don’t think there should be a prohibition against debate if it comes up in class. It doesn’t have to be part of the curriculum.”

She added that, if elected, she would not push the state Board of Education to add such creation-based alternatives to the state’s required curriculum.

Well heck, I’m one of the biggest evolutionists on this site and even I wouldn’t send a kid to the principal’s office for bringing up Creationism in a 9th grade biology class, largely because it would be much more productive for the science teacher to refute the false information being put forth with actual scientific facts. Incidentally, Sarah makes reference to her science-teacher father in the article, who appears to be anything but a Creationist. I file this accusation under “tempest in a teapot.”

Myth: Sarah Palin was a Buchananite in 1999! That means she’s evil!

FACT: While Pat Buchanan in 2008 stands for two or three things in the minds of most people, he was in the past a candidate that reasonable people could and did support for various reasons. In 1992, most of the working class Catholics in my parents’ parish voted for Buchanan in the Republican primary because he was the candidate with whom they best culturally identified. Now, my memory may have gotten a little foggy sixteen years and sixteen hundred beers later, but I don’t recall everyone in my parents’ community being hate-filled hatemongers.

Similarly, 1996 was a year in which lots of perfectly sensible people supported Buchanan, and this was also the year that Palin did. Heck, Buchanan won New Hampshire that year. Libertarian-leaning, live-free-or-die New Hampshire. That race was far too complicated to accuse everyone who couldn’t vote for Bob Dole or Steve Forbes of being a closet populist.

Now, by 1999, Buchanan had ceased to be a mainstream candidate. But Sarah Palin was no longer supporting him by then! She was supporting Steve Forbes, and there are news clips to prove it according to Hot Air. Does that mean Sarah is a closet corporatist Republican too?

I don’t have to tell anyone on this site that there are all sorts of strategic reasons that voters support various candidates throughout the years, and without examining the context, such support may make a voter seem philosophically inconsistent. What we do know about Palin is that, despite being a former Buchananite, she has shown pro-growth tendencies as governor and has not been on a crusade against gays or modern culture. I would look at what Sarah actually says and does to determine what she believes, and not who she may have voted for in a Republican primary when she was 32 years old.

I know that we had a lot of fun with it, but can we now please, please, please put to rest the myth that Intrade is such a big deal?

Shouldn’t the fact that Romney, Pawlenty, Hutchison, Ridge, and Lieberman all reached higher peaks than Palin ever did reveal something about our site-wide obsession?

Just a thought…

Next time she gets knocked for experience or whatever, just hold up a pocket card of this:

Hey, it’s better than this:

Sorry, been trying to think of a way to use these two in the same post.

Some quick thoughts this evening…

• An interesting contrast from Obama’s rallies (including his speech yesterday) and Palin’s speech today: at Obama rallies, folks in the crowd regularly chant “O-ba-ma! O-ba-ma!” Today during Palin’s speech, people in the audience kept chanting “USA! USA!” I’ll take that compare and contrast any time. (And yet, Obama has the audacity to keep telling us his campaign isn’t about him… it’s about all of us… sure, Barry. Whatever you say. The only thing your campaign was ever about was you. You and your cultlike followers.)
• In a purely political sense, I like that Sarah Palin also has a son going to Iraq - it levels the playing field a bit between her and Biden and denies him some sort of imagined high moral ground on the issue when they debate. I also highly respect her son’s volunteer service to this country.
• So now the race has come down to this: two tickets. On both, we have an old, white haired boring guy who’s been a creature of Washington his whole life and is strong on foreign policy issues coupled with a young, energetic reform-minded Washington outsider with less than a term’s worth of political experience. Yes, the two tickets generally cancel one another out now. The only difference is who’s on top (insert Michael Scott Office joke here).
• It’s interesting that for all the talk about McCain possibly choosing someone who would not be the GOP heir apparent, it is now Obama who chose someone who won’t run for President next time. Palin, if McCain wins, could be a powerful force in the GOP for years to come. If McCain loses, it sets up another wide open primary in four or eight years and her stardom will have been a flash in the pan.
• I really like the rollout of team McCain today - this was impressive politics. Hardly anyone is talking about Obama’s speech now - any political conversations I’ve had with friends and coworkers today has been about Palin, not Obama - so this ought to negate a lot of the positive bump Obama is receiving from his convention. I also like the fact that it was in a demonstrably Democratic portion of Ohio, showing McCain is not afraid to take on the “enemy” on their own turf. And I like that Palin keeps getting described as a “surprise pick” and a “gamechanger”. In a political world where secrets are impossible to keep, McCain’s team did a remarkable job today.

America’s future lies in space. Today our economy is strengthened by the vast commercial economy based in Earth orbit.

Use anything with GPS?

Ever make a long-distance phone call?

Ever watch cable TV or satellite TV?

Even vast parts of the internet are relayed through satellites. Over 80% of the satellites in space are commercial non-government.

Our national security depends on our military assets in space. In the second Iraq War we are using 8 times as many space based assets as we did in the 1st Iraq war. Our intelligence depends on our eyes in the sky. Our soldiers depend on satellites to receive their up-to-the-minute intelligence and orders.

Our Army, Navy and Air Force all depend on assets based in space. This is why I want to hear McCain articulate a broad vision for space besides exploration to Mars or the Moon.

We need to patrol the Earth orbit just as we would patrol the open seas. Our commercial and our military assets in space are open to attack from Russia (who leads us in space) and from China (who’s expanding into space).

Our defense against nuclear weapons ultimately will depend on anti-missile assets in space. Unfortunately we’re using treaties with a nation that no longer exists (USSR) to prevent the Star Wars vision of Reagan.

I want to hear from McCain if he’ll consider abrogating our treaties with the USSR now that Russia is suddenly aggressive. We need to defend our assets in space and defend against Russia’s strong position in space. The ABM treaty needs to go into the shredder.

I think McCain could go further. He could promote the idea of a new uniformed military service:

The Space Corps.

Just like the Marine Corps, the Space Corps would be a smaller service that operates inside another service but with independence and separate funding. Just as the Marine Corps is part of the Navy, the Space Corps would be part of the Air Force.

The War on Terrorism, also depends on rapid and reliable communications and intelligence. Without our assets in space we’d have no ability to fight the shadowy and fleetfooted terrorists.

I want McCain to emphasize the importance of space to our security, economy, and freedom. You wouldn’t want to live in a future where Russia and China ruled the air and threatened our freedom.

OK, here you go, McCain campaign. Use these, since, at least according to MetroRepublican, you haven’t yet made up the list yourself. This is what you want to say, Mike DuHaime:

1. She’s too inexperienced.

Wait a second — Barack Obama supporters are going to make the argument that Sarah Palin doesn’t have the experience to lead? Sarah Palin’s two years of executive experience is more than Obama’s and Biden’s put together, and she, unlike Senator Obama, has actually accomplished something during her short term in office. Palin has spent her time rooting out corruption and advocating for advancements in energy. Obama has spent his time running for president. Either way, Sarah Palin’s running for vice-president. Barack Obama is running for president. Their ticket is upside-down. Does Barack Obama really want to get into a debate about experience?

2. Where’s her foreign policy credentials?

Hasn’t Barack Obama already conceded — by virtue of how his ticket is shaped — that, for foreign policy, half a ticket is enough? Where’s Barack Obama’s foreign policy experience? And again: Sarah Palin’s running for vice-president. Barack Obama is running for president. Does Barack Obama really want to get into a debate about foreign policy credentials?

3. This is clearly just a gimmicky pick designed to lure in women!

Oh? Is there something wrong with acknowledging the fact that accomplished women have been passed over for high office for too long? Is there something wrong with wanting to ’shatter the glass ceiling’? It’s quite pathetic that a main line of attack against Sarah Palin is over her gender.

4. The woman is an extremist on abortion!

Sarah Palin has gone far and beyond the typical social conservative by actually putting her money where her mouth is. She has shown her commitment to life by choosing to mother a child with disabilities. When it comes to abortion policy, which is shaped by the court, Governor Palin shares Senator McCain’s commitment to federalism and strict constructionist judges. The two of them both support judges that will overturn Roe v. Wade and restore abortion rights to the states — where they belong.

5. She’s under investigation for abuse of power!

It’s nothing. The ‘fired’ officer was offered another job, which he refused. If Palin really wanted to “punish” him, why would she offer him another job? It’s clear that she’s telling the truth when she said that she just wanted to shake things up. It’s absolutely preposterous to state that Mrs. Palin, who has built her career on fighting corruption, would engage in such behavior. If we want to talk about corruption and shady dealings, let’s start with Senator Obama’s connections with people such as Tony Rezko and William Ayers. Does the Obama campaign really want to get into a debate about sleazy connections?