GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
The AP and Politico are reporting:
The McCain campaign is vetting Rep. Eric I. Cantor (R-Va.) as a potential vice-presidential candidate, a campaign adviser told Politico on Saturday.
Cantor, 45, has provided records to the running-mate search team of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), the adviser said.
With a Southern lilt that belies his talent for raw politics, Cantor is one of the nation’s most prominent Jewish Republicans, and has impressed the McCain team by becoming one of the campaign’s most prolific fund-raisers.
A young fiscal conservative who could help keep Virginia from tipping blue, Cantor could also be an asset in such battlegrounds as Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. He has shown appeal to the party’s base as well as to independents, and would be an unconventional choice at a time when McCain is looking to add excitement to his campaign.
“McCain needs to do something different,” said Chris LaCivita, a top Virginia Republican strategist. Citing his youth, ties to the business community, strong relationship with conservative activists and proven ability to raise money, LaCivita said Cantor “fits all the bills”
The commonwealth, which has been reliably Republican in presidential races, has become more Democratic, making it a top target for Obama and a huge concern for McCain.
Cantor, who lives in suburban Richmond, would bring to the ticket a photogenic family and a track record of raising prodigious amounts of money from his own national network. On weekends, he travels constantly on behalf of Republican House candidates and the national party
Known on Capitol Hill as squeaky clean, Cantor has successfully campaigned and raised money in key states like Missouri, New Jersey and New York.
Mark Warner, the former Virginia governor and now Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Virginia, said that Cantor was his toughest potential opponent. Cantor decided to stay in the House to continue rising the leadership ladder.
Dr. Richard Land, president of the Southern Baptist Convention’s Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission and one of the nation’s most influential evangelical leaders, recently praised Cantor as a potential McCain running mate, calling him rock-solid on social issues—a huge concern for Christian conservatives with the maverick McCain at the top of the ticket.
Cantor is a member of the House Republican leadership, chief deputy majority whip, and a member of one of the most coveted committees.
Cantor has been a visible McCain surrogate for weeks, appearing frequently on cable news outlets chiefly to promote McCain’s positions on domestic and economic issues. He has been a forceful critic of Democrat Barack Obama’s resistance to lifting the federal ban on oil and gas drilling off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts.
Cantor has strong support among the party’s conservatives, perhaps comforting a segment of the GOP base that has been reluctant to embrace McCain, who has often been at odds with members of his own party on several issues, including a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, federal funds for embryonic stem cell research and campaign finance reform.
Since his four terms in the Virginia House of Delegates starting in the early 1990s, Cantor has been part of the anti-tax wing of Virginia’s Republican Party. His longtime advocacy for business and corporate interests in the General Assembly earned Cantor the derisive nickname “Overdog” from Democrats in Richmond.
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:02 pm
You beat me to it, Aron…This certainly would be interesting pick
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:07 pm
How do you get Joe Lieberman on the ticket while also motivating Conservatives of all stripes? = Pick Eric Cantor.
I guess that lunch McCain had with Mr. and Mrs. Cantor in NY was an interview?
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:09 pm
This would be a great pick for McCain.
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:13 pm
Cantor was one of the Reps who stayed after session yesterday. As I said then, could that have been planned to help McCain’s pick?
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:14 pm
Great pick, but it won’t happen because it would make too much sense.
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:14 pm
I saw Cantor speak in Chicago at the RJC. He was very good, and I was impressed.
If I had my choice, I think I would be for Cantor as VP and Romney as head of the party.
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:20 pm
Well let’s get this straight. Eric Cantor is….
Jewish
Conservative down the line
From Virginia
Is a good fundraiser
Appeals to Independents and Dixecrat’s
Wow, he would fit the bill well especially when it comes to Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida, and could be good also in Michigan and of course he would be an asset in Virginia, this could be a very smart pick indeed, is there anything that is wrong with Cantor? Any Skeleton’s or anything in the closet?
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:22 pm
I would be very happy with Eric Cantor as VP.
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:24 pm
#7, he is young, but has 20 yeears experience in politics, and this would be a big boost to house Republicans. He also swore off earmarks a few years back before it became fashionable.
This would be a great pick.
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:28 pm
Just found this website if anyone is interested in going to it and letting McCain know how you feel if you like Cantor for VP, this is a very interesting site.
http://www.ericcantorforvp.com
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:28 pm
Cantor is virtually unknown and can easily be defined in a negative light. That said, he would be a good pick.
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:28 pm
Oh, and Alex and I became his Facebook friend the other night, so we are ahead of the media! LOL
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:31 pm
Cantor likes petitions:
http://www.standwithrush.com/
http://www.savethesecond.com/
http://www.noamnestypetition.com/
Hmmmm….is that last one going to be a problem with Mr. Comprehensive Immigration Reform?
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:35 pm
Horrible pick. What is he known for, outside of conservative activist circles? He would be easily defined by the Democrats (as a “big business” crony, in case you were wondering), and would show that McCain is less serious about leading the country than he is about satisfying an ever-fickle conservative wing of the Republican party.
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:40 pm
#7
Jewish - Why does this matter? Are we still looking for minority groups to pander to?
Conservative down the line - bad idea in this electoral environment
From Virginia - He may help here, but the rest of the country will ask “Who?”
Is a good fundraiser - Fundraising won’t matter a month from now. McCain’s taking public funding.
Appeals to Independents and Dixecrat’s - Evidence, please?
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:41 pm
[...] SEE ALSO: Could the Cantor vetting cause Obama to change up? [...]
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:42 pm
“The source told CNN Chief National Correspondent John King that the work on Cantor and other potential running mates is mostly done.”
So McCain is just about the make a decision. I wonder who else is on the list? I wonder if Cantor sheds a light on other potential McCain picks? Young, minority, woman, conservative…hhhmmm…
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:44 pm
McCain just pulled Cantor right out of a hat, didn’t he. A Jewish Southerner with a nice accent, deep ties to the GOP establishment and a penchant for big cash hauls. Yikes…
http://www.political-buzz.com/
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:45 pm
I don’t think McCain will make his pick until right after the DNC Convention i think.
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:51 pm
Eric Cantor on the Issues
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:52 pm
Smoke and Mirrors. That’s all it is. No chance he chooses a member of the House of Reps. Guaranteed to be a Governor, if not that, a private sector female.
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:53 pm
does this mean we are delayed for announcement?
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:54 pm
does this mean we are delayed for announcement?I thought They wanted to announce before the start of olympics?
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:55 pm
#18- I disagree. I think McCain will pick during the Olympics now. Why announce your pick just as Obama is spiking from his post-convention bounce? You’ve got to be able to grab attention to your selection. Sept. 1 is too late, especially if it’s a relatively unknown (Palin, Cantor, Portman, etc.)
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:56 pm
Greg,
Well i read an article today that said Obama will pick a week before his convention, so i think McCain will pick after him i guess? Who know’s though at this point?
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:56 pm
#22- Greg, that was our own “expert” punditry that expected a pre-Olympics pick, not what the McCain camp has said. In fact, they have been pretty adamant they saw nothing wrong with announcing it during the Olympics, which I agree with.
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:57 pm
Cantor is a good choice for the VP.
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:57 pm
I can see the Dem. negative ad now:
“John McCain says he’s serious about energy independence. But how does he show it? By choosing Eric Cantor as Vice President”
(black and white scary picture of Cantor)
(quotes flash on screen while narrator reads them)
# Voted NO on tax incentives for energy production and conservation. (Jun 2008)
# Voted NO on tax incentives for renewable energy. (Feb 2008)
# Voted NO on investing in homegrown biofuel. (Aug 2007)
“What does Eric Cantor vote yes on?”
# Voted YES on passage of the Bush Administration national energy policy. (Jun 2004)
# Voted YES on implementing Bush-Cheney national energy policy. (Nov 2003)
Final quote flash:
#Rated 0% by the CAF, indicating opposition to energy independence. (Dec 2006)
“Eric Cantor and John McCain, wrong for energy independence, wrong for America.”
Not saying it’d be right, but that immediately caught my attention.
August 2nd, 2008 at 10:06 pm
That is a problem…That’s why I think Sarah Palin is still the best choice. Her expertise on energy issues could really prove valuable for McCain.
August 2nd, 2008 at 10:09 pm
#19,
These will go over really well with moderate voters:
# Voted NO on expanding research to more embryonic stem cell lines. (Jan 2007)
# Voted NO on allowing human embryonic stem cell research. (May 2005)
…
# Voted NO on defining “energy emergency” on federal gas prices. (Jun 2008)
# Voted NO on revitalizing severely distressed public housing. (Jan 2008)
# Voted NO on regulating the subprime mortgage industry. (Nov 2007)
…
# Voted NO on prohibiting job discrimination based on sexual orientation. (Nov 2007)
# Voted YES on making the PATRIOT Act permanent. (Dec 2005)
…
# Voted NO on additional $10.2B for federal education & HHS projects. (Nov 2007)
# Voted NO on $84 million in grants for Black and Hispanic colleges. (Mar 2006)
# Voted YES on allowing school prayer during the War on Terror. (Nov 2001)
…
# Voted NO on tax incentives for energy production and conservation. (Jun 2008)
# Voted NO on tax incentives for renewable energy. (Feb 2008)
# Voted NO on investing in homegrown biofuel. (Aug 2007)
…
# Voted NO on raising CAFE standards; incentives for alternative fuels. (Aug 2001)
…
# Voted NO on assisting workers who lose jobs due to globalization. (Oct 2007)
# Voted NO on protecting whistleblowers from employer recrimination. (Mar 2007)
# Voted NO on campaign finance reform banning soft-money contributions. (Feb 2002)
…
# Voted NO on giving mental health full equity with physical health. (Mar 2008)
# Voted NO on Veto override: Extend SCHIP to cover 6M more kids. (Jan 2008)
# Voted NO on adding 2 to 4 million children to SCHIP eligibility. (Oct 2007)
# Voted NO on requiring negotiated Rx prices for Medicare part D. (Jan 2007)
…
# Voted NO on $23B instead of $4.9B for waterway infrastructure. (Nov 2007)
# Voted NO on establishing “network neutrality” (non-tiered Internet). (Jun 2006)
August 2nd, 2008 at 10:14 pm
Good God,
Yet another. Do you all not feel as if we are all being played for fools? Eric Cantor ? How about Sam Olens? He is a big McCain supporter. Never heard of him? Duh. Never heard of Eric Cantor either. Maybe I will in 4 years or 8 years or 12 years. Got to believe, got to hope, that McCain really understands how ridiculous all this is becoming.
August 2nd, 2008 at 10:16 pm
Can we kill this myth, please? Where did Palin get this “expertise” on energy issues? Just because she supports a specific policy does not provide any evidence that she actually knows anything about the field. She supports energy policies that will bring jobs and investment to her state. That is all.
August 2nd, 2008 at 10:16 pm
It’s a good point about him being so unknown and so definable.
He might be a hero to those of us in the conservative grassroots, but after a few Dem attack ads highlighting some choice votes they’ll turn him into a militaristic right wing nut job who hates the poor, our environment and every civil right except for the second amendment that middle America will be scared of.
Probably a good argument to go with a known figure with moderate tendencies who will enhance McCain’s image, not harden it (I’m thinking Rudy, Powell, Lieberman, or Palin who at least has a softer edge than Cantor).
August 2nd, 2008 at 10:28 pm
#31, she is an expert.
- Her husband works in the industry.
- She just negotiated and signed in to law the largest energy infrastructure project in North American history.
I have a feeling that makes her an expert. Plus, she was the first to push this “energy independence” issue, that now everyone is talking about.
August 2nd, 2008 at 10:29 pm
I agree generally, although I would dispute the idea that Palin is anything close to these others in terms of accomplishment, or widespread identifiability. The blog echo chamber makes her seem like a celebrity, but most people (probably at least 275 million Americans, maybe more) still have no idea who she is.
August 2nd, 2008 at 10:31 pm
sjm855
It is now August 2. We are reduced to vetting Eric Cantor who no one knows except a few people like BigS and Michael above. Your comment that we should go with a known figure like Palin ? What / who knows her, besides we political literati? What we do know is that she is currently under investigation and 2 years earlier was the Mayor of Wasilla, population 8400, where the Iditerod dog race begins. Then , Powell who doesn’t want to be President, but who presumably would jump at the chance to play Corporal to McCain’s General as VP ? Then Rudy who is Pro Choice, but would perhaps fly with the GOP base and Lieberman, who would not.
I hope and pray that McCain is just kidding and that he is a lot farther along in his decision making. He has essentially had since April 1.
August 2nd, 2008 at 10:32 pm
Neither of those things qualify her as an expert on energy and energy policy.
August 2nd, 2008 at 10:33 pm
Big S,
By expertise I mean eloquence, knowledge, direct action related to the issue, and time spent pushing Congress to do more.
August 2nd, 2008 at 10:36 pm
#35, she has not been mayor for a number of years. She held executive posts before being Governor.
August 2nd, 2008 at 10:36 pm
She may be eloquent (I think she does an OK job, but not the best), but her knowledge and record of action are based on a few individual projects that have more to do with Alaska’s economic interest (jobs/investment) than anything resembling a national energy policy.
August 2nd, 2008 at 10:38 pm
craig: read careful, I put an “or” between the first 3 names and Palin indicating that while she would not fit the known quantity category would have a softer edge than Cantor (being a woman makes her less scary, person narrative with son and at least a few non right wing positions on her record (specifically having to do with energy policy and reform and on women’s issues). She would be a net plus for McCain for different reasons. With Cantor you would essentially be trying to sell Tom Tancredo’s record with a younger, telegenic, Jewish face. Don’t get me wrong, I love him, but we’re not trying to win you or me. We’re in the bag. We need the center.
August 2nd, 2008 at 10:38 pm
Big S, The second point does! She has had more success than Bush, and he worked in the industry!
August 2nd, 2008 at 10:43 pm
Kristofer,
I think she was Mayor as late as 2002. Then she was appointed to the state’s Oil and Gas Commission until 2006 when she was elected Governor. So, 2 years as Governor, 2 years as Mayor of Wasilla ( Pop 8400 ) and a few years as a member of the Oil and Gas Commission. Then, she is to be an ” incident” away from the Oval Office, negotiating nuclear policy with Russia and running the world’s biggest corporation. Great!
August 2nd, 2008 at 10:47 pm
#42, actually she was a two term mayor and was responsible for administering the county, not just the city.
In fact, she has a longer resume of public service than Mitt Romney.
Craig, you go ahead convince McCain to pick an older white male, then I will see you in 4 years on this site, fighting over the nominee who will try to unseat Obama.
August 2nd, 2008 at 10:49 pm
sjm855
I agree with you. We are in the bag. But the bag is only partly full this year. We only can use the center, if we know we have the base. I am not suggesting the Republican base will vote for Obama. I am suggesting, particularly in the south, that we are not so enthused with McCain and if the party tries to jam another “moderate” like McCain, many will just stay home. Remember 1992. They were so unhappy with Bush and Clinton, that 20 % voted for Perot. Yes, that elected Clinton and the base will not do that. But we all marched in the streets in Atlanta in April opposing McCain Kennedy. He runs the risk of trying to fill his bag with moderates only. He will only get it half filled.
August 2nd, 2008 at 10:55 pm
With the exception of Virginia and Florida, it’s highly unlikely that McCain is going to be challenged in the South. There is enough of a winning margin there that he can let go of part of the “base” there and not lose any electoral votes. The action, as usual, will be in swing states with a lot of moderate voters and fewer conservatives who will stay home.
August 2nd, 2008 at 10:56 pm
Obviously, Sarah Palin remains by far my top choice. But if you put a gun to my head and asked me for a “runner-up”, Cantor would be near the top of my list (my real second choice would be Rep. Adam Putnam from FL, the #3 ranking GOP congressman in the House, but he’s not yet 35 years old…so Cantor will work). I’m not convinced that he has quite enough “oomph” to push the ticket ahead of Obama, but he is definitely the type of risky pick that could pay big dividends. My biggest issue would be that McCain-Cantor would be a ticket composed of two Washington insiders who are primarily known for their foreign policy positions. Essentially, McCain would be doubling down on every aspect of his campaign except his age.
As for Kaine, I’m starting to doubt his chances. He got raked over the coals by the media several times this week, so his trial balloon may have popped (or he might have just been floated as a diversion). I’m watching for either Biden, Bayh, or a totally unknown left-feild pick (Rep. Chet Edwards?). The way the Obama campaign has been run (very flambouyantly) leads me to think that Barack would much prefer a surprise pick, so my spidey senses tell me that there is at least one name on his shortlist that is NOT being floated to the media. Obama is a showman first and foremost, and he may purposefully try to grab even more headlinesd by plucking a veep from obscurity.
August 2nd, 2008 at 10:59 pm
As for Palin:
Don’t forget that she was president of the Alaska Conference of Mayors (making her one of the state’s elite local officials), and Chairman of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission after that. And she’s currently Chairing the Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission (America’s largest interstate organization).
So, she’s got a longer resume than you might think, and she’s got gravitas on oil and gas issues coming out her ears.
August 2nd, 2008 at 11:13 pm
Kristofer,
Be serious. Wasilla has 1600 registered voters and they have administrative districts in Alaska , so no counties.She served two terms on the Wasilla City Council from 1992-1996 and the 2 terms as Mayor. She ran for Lt Governor and lost, so she was
appointed
Ethics Chairmen of the Oil and Gas Commission. She resigned in 2004 and ran for Governor in 2006. To say she has a longer resume than Mitt Romney is a completely and totally fatuous comment. In total time. of course, you are correct. But we are talking
about the VP of the United States, not the Mayor of some little town that runs dog races once a year. Wasilla is a small suburb of Anchorage.
Romney, after double degrees from Law School and the MBA program, made a lot of money creating and running Bain Capital. He made the money because he understands economics, something we have been missing for the last 8 years.
The Salt Lake Olympics were $ 380 million in debt when Romney took them over as CEO. He turned that $ 380 million into a $ 100 million profit. He contributed $ 1 million of his own money to the Olympics. He was paid $ 825 ,000 salary which he
donated completely to charity
When Romney was elected Governor of Massachusetts in 2003, the state had a budget deficit of $ 3 billion. When he left office in 2007, the state had a surplus of $ 700 million and taxes were cut. This is 4 years of managing a really big state
compared to 2 years of running the smallest state in the union. Once again , he showed how to make money. But, God forbid we ever put anybody in Washington that has a brain. Too many, already there, would be embarrassed.
August 2nd, 2008 at 11:21 pm
#48, you are incorrect. Two terms as Mayor. Read the offical bio. http://gov.state.ak.us/bio.php
Sorry bud. Palin still has a longer resume than Romney in public service. Romney has 4 years, Palin has 16 years.
craig, you can sell Romney all you like, but it will not happen. McCain is going with youth. You have to deal with that. Politics is about identity and marketing.
“I am aware of the enhanced importance of this issue given my age,” McCain said back April.
August 2nd, 2008 at 11:24 pm
Big South,
I assume you live in the south. I do too. You well know that in the primaries in February, McCain only got 31 % of the GOP vote in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, S Carolina and Florida. Huckabee and Romney got most of the other 69 %. That is
because many people don’t like McCain’s positions on a whole lot of issues. Now, does that mean they would vote for Obama? No, not necessarily. ( All bets are off if Nunn were the VP ). But they well may choose to stay home if the VP pick is
unacceptable to the traditional values of these folks. And, you should also know that the Democrativc primary vote sin the South, Georgia in particular, were immense, far bigger than the GOP and the traditional black democratic vote in November will be
colossal.
So lets not play a lot of silly mind games with random names. Without this base in the south, McCain loses with anybody. georgia and S,. carolina and Virginia and Mississippi are much closer in the polls now than they should be. The VP pick will open the
gap to a comfortable level or it will elect Obama. McCain can choose which result he wants..
August 2nd, 2008 at 11:25 pm
#48, “have administrative districts in Alaska , so no counties”,
It is the same thing, County, Parish, admin. distric. Be serious!
August 2nd, 2008 at 11:32 pm
Craig,
Actually, Palin was BOTH Chairman and Ethics Commissioner of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, and actually counties are called “bouroughs” in AK, not “administrative districts”. She did resign from the AOGCC…in protest..because people who were supposed to be submitting ethics reports to her were instead going over her head to cover up ethics violations. And if she was elected by fellow Governors to head the single largest interstate organization in the country, I think that makes her more than “mayor of a little town”. She does have more GOVERNMENTAL experience than Mitt Romney, by a long shot. Romney does have her beat on business experience, but Palin has indeed served in government since 1988, whereas Romney entered Government for the first time in 2002. And yes, local government counts, they have to take care of all of the minutia that the State and the Feds don’t care to deal with. And Palin obviously dfid a bang-up job at it, as her fellow mayors voted her in as their leader by making her President of the AK Conference of mayors.
Let’s make a deal, I won’t ignore Romney’s bang-up performance as a CEO, and you don’t belittle Gov. Palin’s extensive experience in state an local Gov’t. She wasn’t just mayor a little town; she was a two-term mayor of tsaid town, a two-term city councilwoman, President of the AK Conference of Mayors, Chairwoman and Ethics Commissionr of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Governor of Alaska, Chair of the Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission, and was also recently made chair of the National Governors Associations Natural Resources Committee. That is a long resume, no matter how you slice it.
August 2nd, 2008 at 11:34 pm
Kristofer,
She was a point guard on the state basketball team in 1982. That was 26 years ago. She was unemployed until she sat on the City Council in 1992. She was out of government from 2004 to 2006. By the way, in my #48
post, I said 2 terms as Mayor.
McCain was certainly laughing at himself, as he said that quote. McCain understands that America has many difficult times ahead in a very scary world. The next 12 months may be the most difficult and dangerous in American histroy. McCain is not going
to put Sarah Palin, or anybody that is such a lightweight, one step from the Oval Office and America is very sensitive to McCain’s age and predilection for health problems. A Palin pick would sink his ship like a rock.
August 2nd, 2008 at 11:35 pm
“Cantor’s cousin, Daniel Cantor Wultz, died as the result of a suicide bombing in Tel Aviv which was carried out by Islamic Jihad on April 17, 2006″
Damn!
August 2nd, 2008 at 11:35 pm
Craig (50),
If you want to talk about values voters in the South, please explain how Palin doesn;t appeal to them. She’s an outright hero to the pro-life community, a committed Christian, and an NRA member.
August 2nd, 2008 at 11:36 pm
Palin for VP,
I’m sorry, I don’t mean to mock your enthusiasm. I think she is an up and coming GOP star and I’m sure she will be a big player 4 years from now. Just not this year in these really perilous times with a crumbling economy and a Democratic alternative
that is pretty scary.
August 2nd, 2008 at 11:38 pm
Craig (53),
There is a big difference between “homemaker” and “unemployed”, please don’t belittle the accomplishments of America’s mothers (or, as my own mother put it, “Domestic Engineers Specializing in Child Development and Adolescent Crisis Management”). And for the record, she did hold several jobs during that time.
August 2nd, 2008 at 11:40 pm
“Just not this year in these really perilous times with a crumbling economy and a Democratic alternative
that is pretty scary.”
That’s exactly why I want Palin on the ticket: Obama is too scary to allow him to win, and McCain needs a solid #2 on oil and gas issues.
August 2nd, 2008 at 11:41 pm
7. What’s wrong with Cantor? He doesn’t have a pair of ovaries.
August 2nd, 2008 at 11:41 pm
PalinforVP
Well, for one, no one knows her and no one will have time to get to know her using the GOP’s magic grab bag that gave us a convention in September and a Presidential candidate that has wasted a lot of time since mid April and still cannot disclose his VP
choice. If it were Palin, McCain is wasting invaluable time that he has to use introducing an unknown candidate. And believe me, Sara Palin is unknown in the South. Period.If they got to know her they would like her but that cannot be done in the 5-7 weeks
after the GOP convention when we will be down 5-10 points to Obama.
August 2nd, 2008 at 11:44 pm
#53, do not argue history. VP picks have been traditionally less experienced, when there has been experienced POTUS candidates.
And actually, McCain was not laughing at himself when he said (issue given my age), I am sure Aron can locate the actual clip for you. McCain was dead serious, I heard it myself on Imus.
Mitt Romney is about to legally qualify for the term, “Senior citizen”. He will not be selected VP. Deal with reality, please!
August 2nd, 2008 at 11:46 pm
It will be Pawlenty, Cantor, Palin, or Sanford.
All under 50.
All pro-growth.
All neo-cons.
August 2nd, 2008 at 11:50 pm
PalinforVP
I don’t belittle any homemaker. I’ve been married to one for many, many year and Sara, I think has 5 children. Why can’t you get her to take Ted Steven’s seat and hold it for the GOP against Rudy Begich? Then, she could try for the Presidency in 2012 as a sitting Senator with a national image.
August 2nd, 2008 at 11:51 pm
Herald Ford could not win on TN, so we have nothing to worry about in the south.
#59 HearMeRoar has a point (sort of). For McCain to win, he needs to exploit a Democratic voting group that Obama is struggling with. This is how Republicans win the White House, becase there are less registered Republicans than Democrats.
Obama is struggling with, 1. women over 40, 2. Jewish Americans (Obama is at historial lows in polling with them), and 3. white working class men in the rust belt.
That is why we are hearing Palin (1.), Cantor (2.), and Pawlenty (3.).
August 2nd, 2008 at 11:51 pm
#63, McCain will be President in 4 years, so how could Palin run?
August 3rd, 2008 at 12:01 am
Really, guys, it’s getting embarrassing that the US hasn’t had a woman in the top level of government.
If there isn’t a woman on at least one of the tickets this year, we women will be pissed. Maybe if we should organize a “No Nookie” strike and then maybe the men in this country would sing a different tune.
August 3rd, 2008 at 12:02 am
bob,
If you add up Cantor, Pawlenty, Palin and Sanford, you still have a grand total of ” nobody knows.” Can’t you guys understand that this is a national campaign, a grand media circus in which the VP has to take the low road on issues while the president
candidate takes about policy and direction and values? Rove and Begala and the other masters of successful politics would scratch their heads at all these choices. It’s too late folks. If McCain wanted any of these folks they should have been announced in April
or May. There is NO TIME left for totally unknown candidates. Of course they can be selected. They just won’t be elected and neither will McCain.
Look, you have a campaign that has to be fought out on economics. You have a campaign that REQUIRES a VP choice to have an impact on one or more BLUE states. These folks lack any economic gravitas, experience and political coattails. Can Cantor
guarantee Virginia? I doubt it, but it’s already Red. Can Pawlenty guarantee Minnesota? I doubt it. He got clobbered once already in the primary trying to carry it for McCain. can Sanford guarantee North Carolina ? I doubt it, but its already Red. What stae can
Sara bring from the Red column for sure? None.
Romney already had 4,2 million votes through Super Tuesday. Romney can add 16 % to McCains numbers in Michigan according to polling by McHenry and Associates in Arlington and switch the state from Blue to Red. Romney can guarantee a victory in
Nevada, Arizona and probably Colorado. , but Michigan is the key.No one else can do that.
August 3rd, 2008 at 12:05 am
I am wary of Cantor as VP because a lot of people do not know all that much about him. I am 100% for a guy that wins any votes in Michigan-Ohio-Penna-Virginia-Florida.
I will wait to judge this move if Cantor is chosen, which I am not expecting.
August 3rd, 2008 at 12:08 am
But craig, isn’t Romey an . . .
old white guy?
August 3rd, 2008 at 12:16 am
Kristofer,
You will be pleased to hear that I am going to bed to think on the profound issues we have been discussing. One last response though to your missive of # 65.
I , and everybody on this blog, hopes McCain will be president . He himself mentioned the possibility of only one term. But, this will be no cake walk, folks. The Democratic Registration is far higher than the Republicans. To have a real chance of winning, we have
to motivate the base. It will not be motivated if it has to be introduced to half the ticket for the first time, particularly if Obama picks a well known VP. Any Democratic VP pick will be expected to bring one or two RED states to the Obama column. Might not
happen but the choice will be predicated on the good possibility that it will. Like Kaine in Virginia, like Bayh in Indiana, like Richardson in New Mexico. Now, if that happens, we have to have an offsetting win in a BLUE state. Look at the map. Look at 2004. What
states can we get, for SURE, not we think? And we probably lose IOWA as well. So, the only BLUE states we could possibly switch are Michigan and N Hampshire.
Now, of all your favorite candidates, tell me who is going to almost guarantee they can deliver Michigan or N. hampshire or both. And remember, I said the Dems will expect their VP candidate to pick off one or more GOP states and we are most at risk in Virginia,
N.Mexico , Iowa and Ohio but potentially at risk in Montana, Nevada and Colorado as well.
August 3rd, 2008 at 12:20 am
craig, you are ignoring fact, and it is discrediting your argument.
#1 - MN did not have a primary, it was a caucus. Pawlenty was in Illinois and elsewhere for McCain, not MN.
#2 - VP’s have never been selected for name recognition. I encourage you to research this fact.
Only Cheney, Kemp and Gore were well known.
1968 - Agnew unknown, 1 term Governor.
1976 - Dole unknown outside of Washington (in 1st year of second term)
1980 - Bush unknown outside of Texas Congress
1984 - Ferraro was unknown to the American public
1988 - Dan Quayle was unknow to the American public
August 3rd, 2008 at 12:36 am
I doubt either Virginian will get selected by McCain and Obama
Cantor- To obscure, no guarantee of real benefit. A much better “obscure” pick is Portman. Even Romney would add more to the ticket than Cantor.
Kaine- Too inexperienced, doesnt add much to the Obama ticket. A better pick for Obama would be Bayh. Or if he doesnt care about the foreign policy inexperience part, and Sebelius.
Of the four prominent Virginians, I thought Webb had the best spot for making it onto the VP slot. But he took himself out of the running. M.warner looking like a Senatorial shoe-in, no way would he or the Dems want to pass on that opportunity.
August 3rd, 2008 at 12:42 am
This site says the McCain VP pick is happening on Wednesday.
http://conservativepulse.com/home/2008/08/wednesday-the-day-for-mccains-vp-pick/
August 3rd, 2008 at 1:06 am
Cantor’s ability to communicate a GOP message to suburban voters is one of the reasons that I think he is one of the few standard issue Republicans who could actually help the ticket. His nomination would send the message that it’s okay to be Jewish and Republican, and lots of Jews would vote for the ticket for identity reasons, and that could mean a few thousand more votes in the Detroit suburbs, the Philly area, and south Florida, not to mention Cantor’s suburban Virginia congressional district, of which I am a resident.
August 3rd, 2008 at 1:16 am
DaveG, McCain team has posted nothing on their schedule for next week. Completely clear. I bet something is up. I searched the web, and I find nothing scheduled.
August 3rd, 2008 at 1:18 am
#74, Good point on Jewish Americans.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/realclearpolitics/20080801/cm_rcp/obama_and_the_jewish_vote
August 3rd, 2008 at 1:31 am
Jewish Population facts.
Florida (653,000) New Jersey (480,000), Philadelphia (285,000),
Several other major cities have over 5% Jewish proportions,including Cleveland, Miami, and St. Louis. Smaller, but growing numbers are found in Houston, Dallas, Phoenix, Charlotte, and especially Atlanta and Las Vegas. In many metropolitan areas, the majority of Jewish families live in suburban areas. In Detroit, for example, the Jewish population is particularly concentrated in suburban Oakland County
August 3rd, 2008 at 1:41 am
Historically, American Jews makes up 1% of Republican vote, but if McCain can secure half the Jewish vote in 2008, that would result in American Jews being 2.5% of his vote, enough to swing a close election.
August 3rd, 2008 at 1:51 am
I’m wondering how long the full vetting process takes. If the reports are true and Cantor is just now handing over papers, could he be thoroughly veeted and ready to go by Wednesday? And he’s probably not the only guy getting vetted, either. Unless this is a final once-over before an announcement, I would think this points to an announcement after the Olympics. Then again, I’m not privy to all of the details of the process.
August 3rd, 2008 at 1:56 am
#79, The full vetting process for Kemp, including an interview by Dole, and a medical, was done in 5 days. With advancement in technology, it probably can be done in 2 days.
National Journal; “Internally, fewer than 10 senior staffers are permitted to advise McCain on the selection. Conversations about the process are limited to a circle of five key staff advisers and a few others, including former Sen. Trent Lott of Mississippi and Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina. Campaign staffers who interact with the press are kept in the dark so that they have plausible deniability.”
August 3rd, 2008 at 1:59 am
btw…they never said “WHEN” Cantor submitted his papers.
August 3rd, 2008 at 3:32 am
This story is just being circulated to make VA feel like one of their own is being considered for VP… same reason Obama’s camp circulated the Kaine story. Neither Cantor nor Kaine is going to be on a ticket this year.
August 3rd, 2008 at 4:12 am
Cantor would be good but really it’s almost certainly Romney, Pawlenty or Rudy.
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:49 am
A poster above includes Sarah Palin in a list of “NeoCons.”
Wow! Ms. Palin, a solid libertarian Republican, is accused of being a “NeoCon.”
Look out guys and gals. If you’re a “libertarian” your now under the category of “NeoCon” as well.
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:51 am
Cantor seems like a very good pick from the libertarian perspective. Not the best pick McCain could make. Certainly Palin or someone else exciting like Michael Steele or JC Watts would be superb picks. But Cantor is quite interesting as a Jewish Southerner.
Gonna Google “libertarian” and “Eric Cantor” to see if he has any ties to the libertarian movement. My guess, he’s attended a Cato Institute seminar or two. That alone would excite libertarians about him as VP.
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:29 am
One thing we should consider is that I’m hearing Sebelius has got as good a chance as any.
If so what then does Macca do? Surely there’s more chance he’d pick a male as he would be seen to be following Obama is he picks a woman.
In any event despite the strange obsession with Gov Palin on this site there really aren’t any female options out there!
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:37 am
Cantor is an excellent pick on paper, but a worrying one in practice. He comes from the most Republican district in Virginia, which gives us no clue as to how he’s likely to appeal to suburban voters who aren’t rabidly conservative. He’s from the most unpopular Congress in history. He’s a complete lightweight. But, worse then all this, he seems like an arrogant frat-boy on TV. I think Cantor would be a real mistake.
August 3rd, 2008 at 7:47 am
I’m back for a minute before heading out to Church. Let me catch up with a few of you..
HearMe Roar……Yes Romney is on old white guy. So is Gingrich, who said that, but I would vote for Newt in a heart beat.. The VP is not a ” Charity Letter” It should be a critical asset , not just in a campaign, but in an administration. It often isn’t. If a women
succeeds to the WH, she should have worked her ” butt ” off like Hillary.
bob,………………Surely you aspire higher than this crew, but they do remind me of some of those being ” vetted”. Agnew was unknown but had a lot of government service work, like Mrs Palin. He was County Executive of Baltimore County before the
Governorship, was a great speaker, had good ties to the Greek-American community. Dole was unknown. ( They lost ). Bush was far better known. He had a long career in Government and most recently had been Director of the Central
Intelligence. Ferraro was picked because she was a women. ( They lost , badly ). Quayle was unknown when he was picked. He was almost unknown after he served 4 years except on the late night laugh shows.
Your point is great though. Most of these characters look a lot like many who are mentioned today. Agnew looks like Pawlenty, except that Agnew was a far better speaker ( “nattering nabobs of negativity”). Dole like Portman, Ferraro like
Palin, Quayle like Cantor. Nobody had ever been run through a national campaign before and VP’s were no where near as important to the ticket as they will be this year. AND, they all had earlier conventions which allowed plenty of time to
introduce these relative unknowns to the voters.
August 3rd, 2008 at 7:54 am
EricD,
I have a feeling the young ‘uns on this blog don’t even know the meaning or origin of the word ‘neocon’.
August 3rd, 2008 at 7:57 am
bob,
one last point and then I got to run.
What was Pawlenty doing for McCain in Illinois during the primary? Wasn’t he the Governor of Minnesota? Wasn’t he the head of the Minnesota GOP? Where else should a Governor have political leverage than in his own state. What does Big John intend to do
with T-Paw if he picks him for VP? Send him to Utah ? Shouldn’t you expect a VP from Minnesota to help you carry Minnesota , at least ? And yet, while T-Paw was in Illinois for the primaries , McCain got buried in the Minnesota GOP caucus, the gathering of
party big wigs and donors that T-Paw supposedly heads up.
August 3rd, 2008 at 8:09 am
craig,
Jim Demint didn’t help Romney carry South Carolina. Judd Gregg, the most popular politician in New Hampshire, didn’t help Romney carry New Hampshire. And these were primaries that Romney went after hard. Minnesota was a caucus, that McCain showed no signs of seriously targeting. Caucuses are immeasurably different from primaries as I’ve pointed out numerous times. Huckabee nearly beat McCain in the Washington caucus. McCain won by more then 2 to 1 in the Washington primary. I’m sick of making this argument; Romney supporters seem incapable of grasping it.
August 3rd, 2008 at 8:25 am
Matthew,
Of course caucuses are different than primaries. Primaries are essentially the will of the voters. A caucus reflects the will of the state political machine, the counties and districts and the GOP state leaders. If you win a state caucus, that is what you have won, not the voters. I am fairly certain Romney would have been close or probably won a Minnesota GOP Primary, if there was one. I am also certain he should have lost a Minnesota Caucus , if Pawlenty had control of his own party and was not campaigning in Illinois. After all, if you take the time to read Team of Rivals , about Lincoln, you will note he took the GOP nomination by enlisting the support of all the party leaders in each state and then wining all the state caucuses.
Was Jim Demint Governor of S. Carolina? I thought he was a Senator. Was Judd Gregg a Governor ? Did either state have a caucus ? What is your point, Matthew? What part of Washington was a caucus and what part was a Primary and what percentage of each did
Romney get ? Not too much, Matthew because he had already dropped out. My point is Pawlenty has no assets to leverage in Minnesota and McCain will not carry the state with or without T-Paw on the ticket. That is the part that Romney supporters do get
August 3rd, 2008 at 8:40 am
craig,
That is the most convoluted argument I’ve ever read. Romney would have lost a Minnesota primary, guaranteed. Pawlenty is fairly well-liked by the GOP machine in Minnesota, but he has far more influence with the actual voters. In 2002, he barely beat out Brian Sullivan at the GOP Gubernatorial convention, on like the 30th ballot or something. He ran roughshod over Sullivan in the corresponding GOP primary. If you’re arguing that Pawlenty isn’t as influential with GOP operatives in Minnesota as he might be, I won’t disagree. But, how does this relate to Pawlenty’s ability to influence voters in an actual election where, remarkably enough, the voters aren’t all GOP operatives?
And the Lincoln analogy is hard to understand. Lincoln worked on activists because this was the way to win nominations in 1860. You know, when nominees weren’t chosen by actual voters. Teddy Roosevelt, who was a remarakbly popular president, constrained many of his progressive impulses in his first term because, despite being overwhelmingly favored by the Republican public, he could have easily lost the nomination in 1904 if he irked the GOP establishment. But, this is neither 1860 or 1904. And I have no idea what to make of arguments that suppose it is.
The Senator/Governor distinction is lost on me as well. Senator’s are as apt to have as much control over the party apparatus as Governor’s, especially if they’re longtsnading Senators.
August 3rd, 2008 at 8:42 am
McCain ignored every caucus after new Hampshire, in fact he did not spend a time or moment in them.
August 3rd, 2008 at 10:29 am
Cantor’s biography is not going to attract indpendent voters, he has been groomed for politics from an early age.
The guy has no achievements in the private sector (or notable achievements as a congressman), no military experience, nothing people can relate to.
August 3rd, 2008 at 10:29 am
he also has no executive experience
August 3rd, 2008 at 10:40 am
McCain has said from the start that the top item for him is having someone who could take over from day one - a 40-somthing house member without a national profile, and without executive experience, would be a big mistake. Also, what does Cantor ad on the economy?
McCain needs either a CEO or, preferably, a Governor with a business background.
August 3rd, 2008 at 11:20 am
Eric Dondero,
How can anyone consider Palin or Cantor “libertarian” Republicans? Has the word lost all meaning? I fear that the term is coming to be used by social conservatives who are trying to find a new label with less baggage.
August 3rd, 2008 at 12:40 pm
OK Guys,
Back from Church with this afternoon’s conundrum. after reading the AM news,I want to pose the following;
1. Obama has scheduled a day and a half for the press next Tuesday and Wednesday…..in Indiana. Like so much, there is probably nothing to this. But, for discussion, lets say that Obama has settled on Evan Bayh for VP.
2. Bayh brings impressive credentials to the game:
a. Governor for 10 years
b. Senator since 1998 ( 10 years)
c. Elected to Senate with 64 % of vote in traditional GOP state
d. Serves on Committees on
1. Small Business and Entrepreunership
2. Banking and Housing
3. Armed Services
4. Intelligence
3. Let’s say, for discussion, that Bayh brings Obama Indiana. And , from a personal point here in Atlanta, Bayh would play really well in the South in the GOP base and among independents. Almost as good as Nunn.
O.K given the above and the fact that the GOP in 2004 won 286 EV. Let’s follow another line
On another blog this morning, the consensus was that McCain has 4 VP candidates on his list now; Pawlenty, Romney, Portman and Cantor. He will pick Pawlenty if he is very confident. He will pick Cantor if he is very concerned , particularly about
Virginia. He will pick Portman or Romney if he is somewhere in the middle.
Given the assumption that he would be less concerned about Virginia if Bayh were selected and the obvious conclusion that he is down in the polls in many Red states, he certainly cannot be very confident.
1. Most concede that N.Mexico and Iowa are gone with their 10 EV
2. Indiana, with Bayh, is 11 EV
3. So, with nothing else happening, the GOP is probably down 21 EV or down to 265 EV. A loss.
4. Of course the very latest state polls show McCain trailing or tied in Montana and Nevada which are 8 more EV for a running total of 253, exactly 17 short of victory.
That brings us to the two candidates between the extremes, Portman and Romney. You all know I am biased for Romney. Let’s look at Portman, a young, popular former Congressman and Bush appointee.
Portman’s represented the 2nd Congressional District in Ohio. from 1993 to 2005. He was very popular in a strongly Republican District. Bush got nearly 70 % of the vote against Kerry in 2004. Portmen is not likely to add much to the GOP voting base
above 70 %. Indeed, Bush is not too popular and Portman’s association with Bush on the economy may be a negative.
Nevertheless, between Portman and Romney, the VP choice must give some advantage to McCain in finding 17 EV to make up for the losses indicated, assuming all other states remain unchanged. That is 17 EV that went for Kerry have to switch. Where
are they ? Who can best help pull them away from Obama and Bayh ?
The only BLUE states in play are Michigan and N.Hampshire, assuming Ohio is retained.
Who would you pick and who would you want debating Evan Bayh on TV ?
August 3rd, 2008 at 12:49 pm
I don’t think Bayh can help Obama win in the South.
August 3rd, 2008 at 12:53 pm
Mary,
I live in Atlanta. Everybody ( almost ) that I know and work with are Republicans. Bayh is, by far, except for Sam Nunn, the most popular Democrat. Given a massive Democrat vote in November from the black community, only a small amount of help in some states could swing the states Democratic, given the huge Dem Registration advantage. McCain cannot afford to lose 1 EV in this region.
August 3rd, 2008 at 1:07 pm
I would be surprised if greater than 1 in 10 Georgians know who Evan Bayh even is.
How many regular folks keep track of the Senators from a state 1,500 miles away?
August 3rd, 2008 at 1:10 pm
Kavon,
Yes, you would be really surprised, but better now than on election day in November
August 3rd, 2008 at 1:39 pm
My guess is that an absolute maximum of 5 out of 10 people could even identify both of their own state’s Senators (it’s probably more like 37% I bet). Especially considering that Pew found that barely 6 out of 10 people could even identify who the current Vice President of the United States is.
So I am calling bullshit on your claim that Evan Bayh is well known and popular in Georgia.
August 3rd, 2008 at 1:48 pm
Relax Kavon.
I have voted Republican in every election since 1960. How about you ? I did NOT say that Bayh was ” well known.: I did say that he is the ” most popular” Democrat among the GOP. That could be correct if 3 out of 100 knew any out -of- state
Democrats
and 1 of those 3 knew Bayh. Of course, the other 97 wouldn’t know squat. I also said, among the GOP who do know those out-of-state Dems, he is the most popular. Of course many GOP people know Hillary Clinton. She is an out-of-state
Democratic Senator from somewhere, I think in the North. She is not as popular.
So, Kavon, grab hold and relax. But Bayh would be a formidable addition to an Obama ticket here in Georgia, just as a Clinton addition to the ticket would be a Godsend. This, my young friend, is no B.S.
August 3rd, 2008 at 1:50 pm
craig,
I was a big fan of Evan Bayh, in the abstract. Had Bayh been sending stronger signals that he was considering running in the summer of 2006, I might well not be here right now; I might have quietly drifted into the Democratic camp. But, Bayh is a Richardson type. He has awesome resume, but you can’t help but feel that he’s pretty…well, underwhelming personally. I have no fear that Evan Bayh would wow anyone in a debate and is unlikely to come off as significantly more credible then Portman, Pawlenty, Romney, or Ridge in that setting (Palin and Cantor are risky choices in this respect against any Democratic VP). Additionally, Evan Bayh isn’t going to swing Indiana and don’t believe anyone who says he is. George Bush won Indiana by 21 points in 2004. Even if we give Obama/Bayh 5 points a piece for homestate advantages (Illinois borders Indiana), McCain still narrowly hangs on. Obama’s current competitiveness in Indiana is akin to his surprising numbers in South Dakota; potentially serious, but more likely an illusion (remember when McCain was leading Obama in Mass and Rhode Island earlier this year?). Additionally, no one that I know of concedes New Mexico and Iowa to Obama. McCain still has plenty of time to recover his strength with Hispanics, which combined with his regional strength, ought to be enough to keep the state red. And if McCain picks Pawlenty, and we see what with Edwards in 2004 (where Kerry did 5 points better in the states sharing a serious border with North Carolina), Iowa ought to become considerably more competitive.
August 3rd, 2008 at 2:09 pm
96 & 97. I agree that Cantor won’t grab indie voters. He is as boring as a candidate as Pawlenty. And it would also look like McCain is bending over backwards to not put a woman on the ticket if he chose Cantor (I don’t feel that way if he chooses Powell).
Palin has tons more executive experience than Cantor and her biography beats his all to hell. And it would be great to see someone in the White House who isn’t a lawyer. Troopergate is fizzling out and I hope that McCain has the guts to choose her.
As to posts made by people that there isn’t enough time for people to get to know an unknown VP, HUH? In this day and age of constant TV news, internet, etc. how could someone not get to know an unknown VP quickly? The key to all of this is people engaging in the process — WANTING to get to know the VP. And in this election, I think that is a given.
August 3rd, 2008 at 2:15 pm
Hi Matthew,
Good comment. You obviously know Bayh better than most. My concern is that the polling in Indiana is unusually close this year with the McCain average being up about 4 %.over Obama , easily within the “possible” impact of a Bayh ticket addition.
Of course nobody ” gives up” on a state. But these states, N Mexico and Iowa, were RED in 2004 and both are now BLUE by + 6 % in the average of polls. Without a lot of money, John shouldn’t have to spend so much defending or catching up in a RED
state and more spending a Blue States like N.Hampshire and Michigan. This money advantage could be a killer. Obama has 150 + Paid volunteers here in Atlanta alone, according to the new and plans to open a half dozen metro offices. I suspect
Mccain has 0 paid workers and perhaps 1 office. The ground game, paid for with cold cash, can bring victory in a tight election, in many states. We all know that, right? Shouldn’t have to waste it holding RED states or catching up in RED states.
August 3rd, 2008 at 2:15 pm
Well Cantor sounds really good at first blush. Of course, a Romney/Cantor ticket sounds GREAT, but since that is currently out of the question - maybe Cantor would be conservative enough to wash out McCain’s liberal tendencies. Maybe not. I’m open to it. Let the vetting begin.
August 3rd, 2008 at 2:18 pm
I am just not seeing what spiritual connection Evan Bayh has to Georgia voters.
Bayh is a moderate? Yeah… So what? An VP nominee from IN is not going to give Obama any legs in GA. It’s just not…
August 3rd, 2008 at 2:24 pm
George Bush beat John Kerry by 17 points in GA in 2004. Bush beat Kerry by 21% in IN in 2004.
Electoral preferences just do not change that fast, sans a national crisis like the Great Depression where 25% of Americans are out of work and we have a foreclosure rate approaching 50%.
If Obama wants to waste 30 million to lose GA by 7% and IN by 11% instead 17% and 21% respectively, go right ahead.
August 3rd, 2008 at 2:43 pm
Kavon,
I am not arguing that Obama will beat Mccain. I am saying two things;
1. Obama , in the South, is not John Kerry and Evan Bayh would not be John Edwards.
2. John McCain is not George Bush in 2004, as an incumbent President.
So, if the GOP base is not motivated, they will stay home or at least not turn out like 2004. Similarly, the Dem turnout will be far greater than 2004. There are 100,000 black voters who were not even registered in Atlanta alone in 2004, who are now
newly registered.So, winning elections involves anticipating what could happen and takiung steps in advance to make sure it doesn’t happen. Losing elections involves taking voters for granted and whispering to yourself that the past is always prologue to
the future. As you correctly said, BULL !
August 3rd, 2008 at 2:43 pm
And if McCain picks Pawlenty, and we see what with Edwards in 2004 (where Kerry did 5 points better in the states sharing a serious border with North Carolina), Iowa ought to become considerably more competitive.
Incidentally, this is the argument for Obama picking Bayh — that he’d make Michigan and Ohio much more likely to go Obama in the fall. Indiana is candy, though I agree that we should give Obama and Bayh about five points each for home state (or region) advantages there, and I would add another five points to the Obama column simply because of the blue drift that Indiana experienced in 2006, when it kicked out a number of GOP congressmen. I suspect that Obama/Bayh v. McCain/whoever would keep McCain to a single digit victory in Indiana. I think Obama/Kaine would keep McCain to single digits in Virginia as well, but Kaine does nothing for Obama in any other state that matters, and Bayh does, which is why Kaine is such a bad pick.
August 3rd, 2008 at 3:09 pm
craig,
I’m of the opinion that Obama’s gains in increased black turnout in the South will be offset by a significantly worse showing among whites. Obama didn’t win the white vote in the South once in the primary. After Super Tuesday and the Wright fiasco, his numbers among whites tumbled everywhere. I think pundits who just reflexively assume that, on election day, Obama’s numbers with whites in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina will be respectable enough to make him competitive after a huge black turnout, are seriously deluding themselves. Obama hit his peak with whites in the South in Georgia, trailing Hillary by only 10%. 4 months later, he lost whites by 24% in North Carolina.
August 3rd, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Matthew,
I think you are probably right, Matthew. What I worry most about is apathy and absent enthusiasm. McCain doesn’t have that many friends down here. I believe , in a two way race, he would lose to george Bush today.Hi positions are anathema to many white voters in the south. One way to overcome that apathy is with the choice of a VP. Contrary to a lot of posts, the choice of VP is absolutely critical , at least in this part of the world, to motivating the base. It not just that they don’t like Obama, they have to also really like the GOP ticket. Half of the ticket they are not crazy about. It is important to remember that McCain got 39 % of the Southern GOP primary vote. The other 61 % went to Huckabee and Romney. That was McCains lowest vote total of any region in the country. Some, but not that many white democratic voters might vote against Obama because he is black, but not that many. His demographics showed none of that in the spring.
So, don’t think the 1,000,000 votes in the Georgia Democratic primary are an optical illusion. There were 100, 000 more votes than the GOP and almost all of the Clinton vote will go to Obama. McCain has to be absolutely sure that all the Huckabee and Romney votes, the 61 % who aren’t crazy about him, vote for him. One way would be to put one of those guys on the ticket. But, in any event, whatever McCain does, he shouldn’t pick a VP that either turns off the base , like a Ridge or Lieberman or fails to motivate because they don’t know them.
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:01 pm
Let meget this straight:
The ‘Evangalical taliban won’t accept a Mormon, but a Jewish man is OK? Double standandard anyone? I think this is an ok pick. Romney is better. But if this picks makes the Evangalical Taliban’s head explode, and leave the party, I’m all for it.
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:44 pm
117 Chrystina
It seems that what makes a Cantor choice ingenious is that he in fact a SoCon Evangelical favorite. He certainly votes like one. But, and this is the kicker, being Jewish takes that edge off for the rest of the population. McCain can have his cake- making nice to the SoCons- and eat it too- not scare away the Independents.
August 3rd, 2008 at 10:07 pm
Most of the evangelical taliban as you put it, were not against Romney because he is Mormon. It really, and I emphasize really because the Romney supports have yet to understand this, really has to do with Romney trying to portray himself as a true social conservative. You can go to any youtube video or the Baywindows edition and see Romney talking about supporting gay marriage and a woman’s right to choose. He campaigned for it in 1994 and in 2002. Why do you think he never decided to be a governor in Utah? Because his liberal social views would never have gotten him elected there. Hence, he went to MA.
There are probably some evangical taliban who were bigotted. But that percentage is rather small.
August 3rd, 2008 at 10:35 pm
Has anyone told you lately Texas that you are nuttier than a fruit cake?
If not, I will!! Don’t you find it kinda strange that on here half the Romnots don’t want Mitt because he is too socially conservative, and helf because he is not really conservative? That’s so weird. Only those known as rombots, like me believe he is genuinely conservative, and that that is a good thing.
I’ve been gone watching bicycle races for two days, and just got back to find that the samo idiotic arguments against Mitt are still being made. Meanwhile the ontrade blips of Ridge, Pawlenty, and Palin have come and gone. Cantor has got a little blip today and is now all the way up to 10, wow!
BTW, mayor of a small town of 12,000 should not even be mentioned as having anything to do with public service that would qualify one for POTUS. Basically, Palin has a couple years as Governor of a small state. If she were not wearing a skirt, she wouldn’t even be on the radar screen.
I continue to marvel at how a few months ago, everybody and their mother on here was so quick to jump up and talk about how the Republicans don’t play identity politics, and that that is a Demo thing. Well, didn’t take long for that to change, did it? I haven’t anything against Sarah, other than the fact that she is not near ready for prime time, especially stepping into the Presidency in a moments notice.
August 4th, 2008 at 10:22 am
#72 bob: In 1980, George Bush had been a candidate for the presidential nomination that same year. That gave him national exposure in recent months before becoming the VP nominee.
August 4th, 2008 at 11:15 am
1.) He is Jewish.
2.) He is from Virginia a key state for whoever wins this election.
3.) He is conservative both fiscal and on Social Issues.
4.) He is young (age 45 a year younger than myself) and has 22 years of governing expierance.
5. ) He will be able to keep the base in tact and win over some independants.
Sounds to me folks he would be an excellant choice!!!