GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Stop the presses, as they say.
On the Veepwatch front, nothing’s on Obama’s schedule yet, but the traveling press registration e-mail has us flying to South Bend at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday and not leaving until 3:25 p.m. the next day.
It seems seems like an awfully long time to be in one place. (Where exactly is Evan Bayh?)
Bayh’s home town is near Terre Haute, Ind. — about four-hour drive from South Bend. But South Bend is a nice geographical point between Illinois and Ohio, and just south of the Michigan line.
Obama communications stretegist Robert Gibbs says all that should be taken from it is that “Indiana is competitive and winnable for us,” he said.
To the untrained eye this may appear to be just a routine campaign stop, but to someone who grew up just a few miles from the Indiana/Michigan border, and who knows the region’s politics, this is almost enough to convince me to learn how Intrade works so that I can make some easy money.
First of all, there is no good reason for Obama to spend almost 24 precious hours in South Bend, Indiana absent a Bayh selection and announcement. Ultimately, Obama is not going to win Indiana with or without Bayh, and if he does, it will be the icing on the 300-plus electoral vote cake. Obama would be eons better served spending those hours across the border in Michigan, or across the other border in Ohio, and he knows that.
On the other hand, South Bend would be the ideal location to unveil an Obama/Bayh presidential ticket. As an area that is both disproportionately populous and Democratic compared to Indiana as a whole, AND as a community that borders purple Michigan to boot, it would make very little sense to announce a Bayh selection anywhere else. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Obama receive a highly noticeable post-announcement bump in Michigan; Bayh’s godlike status is well known to residents of southern Michigan who reside in the media markets of the hybrid region known as “Michiana,” a region that will assuredly initiate a goopy Obama/Bayh lovefest for the next several news cycles should Bayh be selected.
Combine all of that with the fact that Obama pretty much has to pick a veep either now or after the Olympics and it becomes clear that Obama is probably going to have a running mate within 72 hours, and that running mate will probably be Evan Bayh. This is an incredibly savvy pick. Bayh will up Obama’s numbers in Michigan and Ohio (see our own Matthew Miller’s work on the adjacent-state impact of vice presidential selections) and will make it that much more important for McCain to select a running mate who can put an actual state in play. That means Ridge (PA, OH), Rudy (PA, NJ), Pawlenty (MN, IA, WI), or perhaps Crist (FL) or Cantor (VA).
August 3rd, 2008 at 4:05 pm
So very interesting if true So If this is true what do if your johnny mccain do you change your vp game plan and announce before Wednesday?
August 3rd, 2008 at 4:09 pm
I think McCain should announce at 3:30 pm on Wednesday just as Obama’s boarding his newly minted Obama/Bayh campaign plane.
IMHO, he should unveil McCain/Ridge from Pittsburgh at that time.
August 3rd, 2008 at 4:15 pm
I won’t mind a bayh rudy vp debate would be must see tv and high ratings on the debate tv channel!
August 3rd, 2008 at 4:16 pm
DaveG
Come on, Dave, I will repost my earlier blog for you guys to reread. Ridge is PRO CHOICE. He would kill the ticket in the south Every Minister would beat the ticket to death. Won’t happen. Rudy ? Maybe. better ticket than Ridge. Still got lots of problems and ” vetting” probably scared up a few more in his closet. No real complementation to McCain and doesnt really put anything in play, certainly not N. Jersey.Pawlenty brings nothing to the table, no Minnesota, no Iowa and no Wisconsin and I’m sure McCain’s internals show this. Cantor doesn’t bring Virginia and Crist doesn’t do anything for McCain in Florida that he can’t do himself. The only available blue states are Michigan and N. Hampshire
August 3rd, 2008 at 4:18 pm
Hey guys
Here is my earlier post on Obama / Bayh. What’s wrong with this picture?
Back from Church with this afternoon’s conundrum. after reading the AM news,I want to pose the following;
1. Obama has scheduled a day and a half for the press next Tuesday and Wednesday…..in Indiana. Like so much, there is probably nothing to this. But, for discussion, lets say that Obama has settled on Evan Bayh for VP.
2. Bayh brings impressive credentials to the game:
a. Governor for 10 years
b. Senator since 1998 ( 10 years)
c. Elected to Senate with 64 % of vote in traditional GOP state
d. Serves on Committees on
1. Small Business and Entrepreunership
2. Banking and Housing
3. Armed Services
4. Intelligence
3. Let’s say, for discussion, that Bayh brings Obama Indiana. And , from a personal point here in Atlanta, Bayh would play really well in the South in the GOP base and among independents. Almost as good as Nunn.
O.K given the above and the fact that the GOP in 2004 won 286 EV. Let’s follow another line
On another blog this morning, the consensus was that McCain has 4 VP candidates on his list now; Pawlenty, Romney, Portman and Cantor. He will pick Pawlenty if he is very confident. He will pick Cantor if he is very concerned , particularly about
Virginia. He will pick Portman or Romney if he is somewhere in the middle.
Given the assumption that he would be less concerned about Virginia if Bayh were selected and the obvious conclusion that he is down in the polls in many Red states, he certainly cannot be very confident.
1. Most concede that N.Mexico and Iowa are gone with their 10 EV
2. Indiana, with Bayh, is 11 EV
3. So, with nothing else happening, the GOP is probably down 21 EV or down to 265 EV. A loss.
4. Of course the very latest state polls show McCain trailing or tied in Montana and Nevada which are 8 more EV for a running total of 253, exactly 17 short of victory.
That brings us to the two candidates between the extremes, Portman and Romney. You all know I am biased for Romney. Let’s look at Portman, a young, popular former Congressman and Bush appointee.
Portman’s represented the 2nd Congressional District in Ohio. from 1993 to 2005. He was very popular in a strongly Republican District. Bush got nearly 70 % of the vote against Kerry in 2004. Portmen is not likely to add much to the GOP voting base
above 70 %. Indeed, Bush is not too popular and Portman’s association with Bush on the economy may be a negative.
Nevertheless, between Portman and Romney, the VP choice must give some advantage to McCain in finding 17 EV to make up for the losses indicated, assuming all other states remain unchanged. That is 17 EV that went for Kerry have to switch. Where
are they ? Who can best help pull them away from Obama and Bayh ?
The only BLUE states in play are Michigan and N.Hampshire, assuming Ohio is retained.
Who would you pick and who would you want debating Evan Bayh on TV ?
August 3rd, 2008 at 4:19 pm
IF I AM MCCAIN I would have 2 name to decide on and announce this week and my list of 2 names would be RUDY OR MITT THATS IT!
August 3rd, 2008 at 4:19 pm
IF I AM MCCAIN I would have 2 names to decide on a list and announce this week and my list of 2 names would be RUDY OR MITT THATS IT!
August 3rd, 2008 at 4:22 pm
I did think though it would be kaine for mr. O
August 3rd, 2008 at 4:32 pm
“IF I AM MCCAIN I would have 2 names to decide on a list and announce this week and my list of 2 names would be RUDY OR MITT THATS IT!”
I agree with every word this post except the that 2 anmes are Cantor and Palin.
August 3rd, 2008 at 4:34 pm
I’ve got four options now that I’d be truly satisfied with:
Rudy, of course
Lieberman
Fiorina
Palin
August 3rd, 2008 at 4:36 pm
Alex I will be out with a post soon about McCain’s gamechangers for VP. They include Lieberman, Palin, and Rudy
August 3rd, 2008 at 4:45 pm
wonder if mccain should change his schedule and bump up his vp announcement now before Wednesday iam beginning think he should.
August 3rd, 2008 at 4:48 pm
Rudy or Ridge lose my vote. ditto with Lieberman.
Cantor is too inexperienced (eight years in the house without ever being in a really contested election doesn’t cut if for me).
Anyway, Bayh has a degree in business economics - McCain has to combat that. He needs someone on HIS ticket with business experience so the ticket doesn’t get labeled as economic know-nothing. He needs Romney, or a CEO, and I don’t think he has the luxury of running with a CEO who isn’t used to political campaigning.
August 3rd, 2008 at 4:51 pm
MCCAIN show some guts and Announce BEFORE WEDNESDAY IF this report is true!
August 3rd, 2008 at 4:51 pm
Rudy or Ridge lose my vote. ditto with Lieberman.
Why Lieberman!? I can understand Rudy, because he’d probably run in ‘12 and be the nominee, but Lieberman!? C’mon!
August 3rd, 2008 at 4:55 pm
I’ve expressed my opinion on this before, Alex - if McCain is willing to pick Lieberman, a pro-amnesty, pro-choice, etc., etc. liberal, I have serious concerns about the direction McCain would attempt to take the party, not to mention the country. Immigration, social issues, and the economy - those are the places where McCain is weak in the eyes of a Conservative. Picking Lieberman does nothing to alieve fears on those issues. More than once in the past, McCain has shown that his love of “bipartisanship” trumps any desire to push conservative positions. If he picks Joe, I see that as a sign that a PResident McCain would be more of the McCain-Kennedy J-Mac than the Republican nominee J-Mac.
August 3rd, 2008 at 4:57 pm
MCCAIN show some guts and Announce BEFORE WEDNESDAY IF this report is true!!!
August 3rd, 2008 at 4:59 pm
Michael,
Lieberman and Ridge are certainly game changers. They will take us from a reasonable chance to no chance. Rudy ? I don’t know. Palin, Pawlenty, Cantor, Fiorina, Portman, Thune….just names to most of the GOP base
August 3rd, 2008 at 4:59 pm
Social issues? Where, exactly, is McCain “weak” on social issues from a conservative perspective? I’m looking for specific examples of issues he supported or did not support, not talking points by anti-abortion activists getting themselves worked up over McCain-Feingold or something like that.
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:00 pm
question does this take mitt off the list due to mccain will now need a vp that will put more swing states in play?
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:03 pm
For one, I never got the impression that McCain cared one way or the other about Social Issues. So that alone is a serious strike against him. The other problems are:
- Opposed the FMA, which seems to suggest he isn’t willing to step up and protect Marraige at the Federal level.
- In the 1999/2000 period, he made statements that he couldn’t support the Repeal of Roe - statements he never owned up to and appologized for. It would be different if he had said “I used to see things like this, I was wrong, and I no longer do” - but he never did that.
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:03 pm
#20
McCain has always needed a running-mate who can help in swing states, if that is possible.
Side note: Can we stop referring to these people as VP? Whoever the person is, he/she will be a running-mate and a vice presidential nominee.
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:04 pm
#21
Can you track down a source?
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:06 pm
I’m not opposed to Ridge because there is no way he wins a primary in 2012. However, I am skeptical that he helps enough to win PA, OH and MI. If they have polling that shows he is popular enough to swing voters into the McCain camp then he is a good enough for me.
He won’t ever appoint any judges so I am not too worried about his stance on abortion.
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:06 pm
“question does this take mitt off the list due to mccain will now need a vp that will put more swing states in play?”
I think the reverse is true - this increases Mitt’s chances, or should, because McCain will now need someone with executive and economic experience.
As for “putting more swing states in play” - like what? What other states are there, and who could possibly put them in play?
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:06 pm
What would you do if you were advising mccain would you tell him to change this weeks schedule and bump up vp announcement? With this news today i think i would bump up vp announcement before Wednesday
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:06 pm
Bayh is a good selection. Incidentally, I think either Pawlenty or Ridge becomes mandatory if Obama picks Bayh. Bayh probably ends any hope we have of taking Michigan, Romney or no. And he begins to blue Ohio. There are precious few electoral scenarios where McCain loses Ohio, but wins the election. That said, Unlikely or not, Pawlenty at least brings both Minnesota and Wisconsin closer to McCain and should help stave off the bluing of Iowa. Wisconsin and Minnesota have 21 electoral votes, which compensates for a possible loss of Ohio. Ridge probably nullifies Bayh’s impact in Ohio and brings Penn closer to McCain. I don’t see any remotely realistic options to counter a Bayh pick. Unless McCain suspects that adding someone like Palin will make the whole country 3 or 4 points redder.
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:06 pm
That would be bad. I like Evan Bayh…and I’m a republican. I heard people in that state couldn’t tell if he was a Dem. or a Rep. unless someone told them.
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:08 pm
#21
Aren’t you a Romney supporter? How can you hold McCain accountable for a statement from 1999 or 2000 and still consider Mitt Romney to be a more acceptable alternative from a social conservative point of view?
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:09 pm
Anne,
Don’t be fooled by the fact that Bayh gets elected in Indiana, he is still a liberal.
His lifetime ACU rating is 19 and it was 12 last year.
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:09 pm
- Opposed the FMA, which seems to suggest he isn’t willing to step up and protect Marraige at the Federal level.
Haha, yeah, that’s totally an electoral problem, even given that the majority of the country opposes the FMA.
Believe it or not, homophobia is losing traction as a political tool.
- In the 1999/2000 period, he made statements that he couldn’t support the Repeal of Roe - statements he never owned up to and appologized for. It would be different if he had said “I used to see things like this, I was wrong, and I no longer do” - but he never did that.
Gasp! Another electoral problem, given that the majority of the country supports Roe!
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:10 pm
Aren’t you a Romney supporter? How can you hold McCain accountable for a statement from 1999 or 2000 and still consider Mitt Romney to be a more acceptable alternative from a social conservative point of view?
Hah! Oh man! I can’t believe I missed this!
McCain still opposes the FMA, though, but he’s said he wants Roe overturned.
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:11 pm
http://www.ontheissues.org/John_McCain.htm
- its says right in there, that, in 1999, he said that, while he wished Roe were irrelevent, he wouldn’t support repeal, and repealing is the only way it would ever be made irrelevent.
and, here: http://www.euthanasia.com/mccain999.html
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:12 pm
Did anyone watch FNS today? Daschle has got to be the worst Obama surrogate I have ever seen. Wallace tore into all his defenses because they were obvious lies. Graham did surprisingly well in defending McCain. Even though Graham is a little too obsessed with McCain, he gets a bad rap for being a RINO when he is actually quite conservative. His lifetime ACU rating is almost 91.
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:12 pm
what does report mean is mccain now forced into a vp decision now before Wednesday now?
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:15 pm
“Aren’t you a Romney supporter? How can you hold McCain accountable for a statement from 1999 or 2000 and still consider Mitt Romney to be a more acceptable alternative from a social conservative point of view?”
Because Romney has been honest about the fact that he was once pro-choice. McCain, though all evidence suggests that he was also pro-choice, or at least pro-Roe, has never accounted for that - instead, he has made statements like “I’ve always been pro-life”
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:15 pm
34 - Greg…are you a troll? Seriously.
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:16 pm
Because Romney has been honest about the fact that he was once pro-choice. McCain, though all evidence suggests that he was also pro-choice, or at least pro-Roe, has never accounted for that - instead, he has made statements like “I’ve always been pro-life”
Suggests that he was once pro-choice?
Are you nuts?!
He has always been pro-life!
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:17 pm
DSkinner,
Graham is an excellent debater/surrogate. He gave one of the best defenses of the Iraq War I’ve ever seen sometime early in 2007.
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:18 pm
As I look at an electoral map, I still think that Ridge has to guarantee PA or he is not worth it. His being pro-choice would probably lose CO, and IA and I believe NM is already gone due to McCain’s huge deficit among Hispanics.
If that happens we lose even with Ohio. However if we win PA, it equals all three of those states and gives McCain margin for error in VA, MO or IN. Picking Ridge is a pretty heavy bet but it may be McCain’s best play with a likely Bayh pick.
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:19 pm
Matthew,
I am sure the GOP has internals, but I , for the life of me, cannot see Ridge helping in the Midwest and he would have an absolutely chilling effect in the South. So, IMO, no way. I still have no input that says Pawlenty is of any help in any state except
Minnesota and there, he erases a 10-12 pt lead and reduces it to maybe 5-7 pts loss. Of course, Bayh is also popular in Minnesota, so maybe the gap is only reduced to losing by 6-8 points. If you goes have polling for Pawlenty in Minnesota, Wisconsin,
Iowa, Ohio, share them with us.
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:20 pm
Didn’t Romney already leave for the Olympics?
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:20 pm
Those with backgrounds as prosecutors tend to have such qualities.
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:22 pm
“homophobia”
…has nothing to do with opposition to Gay Marraige. You can oppose something without being afraid of it. You can object to something on moral or social grounds without being afraid of it.
You are taking your talking points from the Social liberals and progressive libertarians who think that the government should condone every lifestyle choice, and then put our country’s stamp of approval on whatever decision a person wants to make - regardless of its effects on the country.
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:22 pm
Anybody familiar enough with Missouri politics to have a favorite in the gubernatorial primary on Tuesday?
I will be spending the month of August here and in the 3 hours I have been here I have already seen about 30 campaign commercials.
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:24 pm
“Suggests that he was once pro-choice?”
He said he was opposed to overturning Roe. That means one of three things
-you are supportive of abortion rights
-you have no opinion on the issue
-you oppose abortion, but are unwilling to do anything about it.
All of those are essentially pro-choice positions.
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:25 pm
Daschle is driving me nuts. Everytime Wallace reads a quote from Obama and asks about a flip-flop Daschle responds by saying Obama never said that. He has always been for “X”.
How was this guy ever Senate Majority leader? For that matter why would the Dems put Reid in such a public position? They are both such awful spokespeople that I would think the party would hide them away and just call them out for key votes.
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:31 pm
DSkinner
The best alternative to a Bayh pick is Romney. This is an old song and you guys are probably tired of it but it continues to make sense. It’s like music…there are songs that are popular for a day and soon forgotten but Romney’s song is a classic in the sense that it continues to make sense.
1. He is the only candidate that can have a big impact in BLUE states like MIchigan and N. Hampshire,
2. He is the only candidate who can have a major positive impact on critical Western states like Colorado and Montana and Nevada and, yes, Arizona.
3. His strength is economics where the elction will be fought.
4. He generates a tremendous amount of enthusiasm among the GOP base
5. He has a track record with voters across the country already
6. He has visibility, doesn’t need to be introduced.
All of the above is true but it is # 1 that is critical. McCain MUST switch some BLUE states or he will lose. Everything else about every VP candidate, is window dressing.
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:33 pm
I think this is what #21 is referring to. I’m too lazy to dig up a Romney abortion quote from 1999, but we all know he was functionally pro-choice as late as 2002. As for the contention that McCain never “apologized” for his comments, make sure you read to the end of the article.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/campaigns/wh2000/stories/mccain082499.htm
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:35 pm
Texas,
I believe Romney leaves for the Olympics on the 6th and returns on the 11th or 12th.
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:35 pm
…has nothing to do with opposition to Gay Marraige. You can oppose something without being afraid of it. You can object to something on moral or social grounds without being afraid of it. You are taking your talking points from the Social liberals and progressive libertarians who think that the government should condone every lifestyle choice, and then put our country’s stamp of approval on whatever decision a person wants to make - regardless of its effects on the country.
‘Homophobia’ just means prejudice against gays. You know that. If you think that marriage needs “protecting” by writing discrimination into the Constitution, then you clearly must think that marriage is being “attacked” by gays — because they want to get married. Meaning that there’s something wrong with homosexuality. Which is a belief that can only be informed by a medieval viewpoint. But of course, you did say that you thought that it was a “lifestyle choice” rather than an orientation.
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:36 pm
The best alternative to a Bayh pick is Romney.
Is there any candidate for whom Romney is not the best alternative, craig?
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:36 pm
Craig,
I know that Romney’s strength is knowing economics, but it isn’t necessarily at getting people concerned about economics to vote for him.
I happen to believe that the economy will actually be rebounding by October, but the MSM won’t let the voters know before the election. Gas will be back down by ~.50 to a national average of ~3.40. The stock market will be up by 5-10% between now and the election because Dems will be forced to act on oil enough to drop the price of oil to ~100-110/barrel.
That said, Iraq will be going well enough that the economy will still be the most important issue, but not like it is today.
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:37 pm
should mccain go fisrt for vp announcement now ?
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:41 pm
I know that Romney’s strength is knowing economics, but it isn’t necessarily at getting people concerned about economics to vote for him.
Don’t confuse the Rombots with logic, now.
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:45 pm
Alex,
Last year, I thought I was a Rombot, since then the real Rombots have corrected my error on the matter.
I know act, craig and the others mean well, but I wish they would understand the joke they have become for their refusal to acknowledge Romney’s faults and other candidates’ strengths.
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:47 pm
The reason Why I think Mccain needs to announce VP before Obama is I believe Mccain needs to seal some of obama’s thunder!
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:51 pm
Greg,
If he wants to steal Obama’s thunder the way to do it is to give Obama 1 or 2 days and then to announce. If he does it before then McCain will get 1 or 2 days and then never make it back in the news, so his VP would get very little publicity.
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:54 pm
but don’t you think due to mccains age it kinda looks bad for mccain to be the 2nd vp announcement?
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:04 pm
Good analysis except for the McCain vp thing. Ridge would kill off the Republican base because he’s pro choice. Guiliani would kill off the Republican base because he’s Guiliani. If McCain needs Crist to win Florida, he’s going to lose the election anyway. And Cantor may help in VA, but he comes off as a young idiot unable to help with swing voters.
Romney is to McCain what Hillary was to Barack, so that won’t work. McCain needs to pick Portman to help hold Ohio and pray he can make up ground elsewhere in another small state or two like New Hampshire and New Mexico while retaining most of the Bush states like Colorado.
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:05 pm
So we should just re-define marriage - give it to anybody and everybody who wants it. Polygamy, group marraige, sibling marraige, the whole lot - because once you’ve redefined marraige from being about families and children to being about adults, you don’t have any grounds to deny it to ANYONE.
Yes, marraige needs to be protected, because it is vital to our country’s surivival - it is the basis of all future generations, and without it, the survival of this country as the superpower that it is is very much in doubt.
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:07 pm
DSkinner, I exempted you from the Rombot category even in the heights of my fighting that front during the primaries.
Matt Miller, even with Pawlenty, McCain doesn’t stand a chance in IA and MN this year, and probably not in WI. The upper midwest loves a progressive liberal like Obama.
Then again, if Obama can be effectively painted as arrogant… the upper midwest culture has a real problem with arrogance. Remember Daschle lost in large part because he bought a Jaguar and they said he “grew too big for his britches”? That’s an upper Midwesternism. Trust me, I grew up there.
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:08 pm
act-blog, backwards thinking people of your ilk made the exact same arguments against interracial marriage. You should study history… among other things.
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:09 pm
Oh yeah, and Pawlenty won’t make a damn bit of difference anywhere. He would improve McCain’s #s in Minnesota by 3% - not enough when Barack holds a double digit lead.
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:09 pm
I just love act-blog. Somehow he thinks people have no desire for sex or children without government incentives. He’s far worse a social engineer than the liberals we despise for the same reason.
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:13 pm
#60
Where did the idea that marriage is all about children come from? Are marriages that don’t result in children somehow inferior to those that do? And what about the quarter of a million children currently being raised by gay couples in the United States? Apparently, prohibition of gay marriage has not prevented that phenomenon. Are their children better off with parents (I use that term loosely here, and not in the biological sense) who do not enjoy the legal benefits of marriage, or would they benefit from laws that allow their parents the tax breaks associated with raising children, a say in medical decisions, etc.?
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:21 pm
DSkinner,
Romney has plenty of faults and plenty of weaknesses. They have been discussed and debated in this forum for months and we all know them. We also know everybody else’s VP picks and everybody else’s blind spots. Palin has a scandal in Juneau. Keeps her out of contention. Her supporters don’t agree, understandably. Ridge is Pro Choice, Hurts in the south. Supporters don’t believe that or choose not to think it could happen, I can go on and on. Personal credentials for Romney have been debated in this blog and on the tube endlessly…..FAR MORE than a Pawlenty or a Portman or a Cantor. What do we know about any of these guys ? Nothing except what is in Wikopeadia. Romney has been to the voters across the country. Nobody else has except McCain and Huckabee,
I am just trying to laser in on 20 + BLUE STATE electoral votes that have to be switched by the GOP. How does that get done? Forget all the other arguments and debates and philosophies and rabid ramblings and trolling et al. How do the EV ’s in Michigan and N. Hampshire get switched and how do you hold the 2004 EV’s ?
As to economics, the economy is held hostage by events that neither we , nor the candidates can control. Gas prices are subject to price speculation and hedging which is hostage to unrest in Nigeria, hurricanes in the Gulf, Mideast Crisis with Israel and Iran , etc. The housing issue will get worse before it gets better, but if you think housing is a problem, try looking at credit cards and see how much sub-prime debt is held by the credit card companies. Trillions of dollars . If that goes south, the Government may not have the funds to fix it and we could slide into a deep recession. There are a host of economic issues out there that we , the U.S. have no immediate control over. Suppose the Isrealis take out the Iranian centrifuges. Speculation , as well as actual circumstance, will take oil to 300 + /barrel and gas to $ 6-7 / gallon and that could happen before the election. Remember, gas is already as high a s$ 8 / gallon in Europe.
So, the economy will be a big time issue, the big time issue of this campaign, and , while voters don’t know all the details, they will want to hear real solutions from the candidates, not campaign platitudes and 30 sec sound bites.
Alex,
I like Romney because he is our best chance to win. I don’t dislike anybody else.
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:26 pm
What about Pennsylvania? PA was closer in 2004 than MI was.
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:31 pm
I’m too lazy to dig up a Romney abortion quote from 1999, but we all know he was functionally pro-choice as late as 2002.
Big S,
That is not correct.
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:32 pm
Can someone explain why it is so bad if mccain announces vp before obama I just don’t get it mccain need the PR I thought?
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:33 pm
Clarity sought on Romney’s abortion stance
Groups perceive muddled message
July 3, 2005
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:35 pm
Big S
My problem with Pennsylvania is that no one can prove that Ridge can carry that state for McCain and Ridge would cost votes for McCain in the south. Guiliani would be a better pick than Ridge. Probably be as beneficial in Pennsylvania and slightly better than Ridge in the South. I just haven’t seen how McCain carries Pennsylvania with anybody. Show me the numbers. McHenry’s numbers show Romney takes Michigan from a 4-5 pt loss to a 3-5 pt win.
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:39 pm
DSkinner,
As a frame of reference, while we blog, TS Edouard is aiming itself at Houston and is expected to be near hurricane strength when it comes on shore. Watch oil speculators jump the price in anticipation of the Houston refineries being hit. We are so open to
these events it is ridiculous.
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:41 pm
#68
I understand that Romney articulated pro-choice positions later than that, but some Romney fans brush those off by contending that he was simply upholding his election promises (gee, what a swell guy!) I used 2002 as the date because he actually ran for governor with pro-choice positions in his platform.
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:43 pm
Evan Bayh is the most boring, white guy Obama could find. Bayh makes Al Gore look interesting.
McCain must go after a voting group of Obama’s, either Jewish American’s or women.
Later this week McCain is going to select either Palin, Fiorina or Cantor.
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:46 pm
would Denver be a good vp announcement city for mccain to make his big announcement ?
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:47 pm
I still think that barring a huge natural disaster oil will be closer to $100/barrel in November and that the stock market will be up.
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:50 pm
Chill, folks. Bayh would be a nice pick, a serious pick. But if you think the good folks of Indiana are going to vote for a Marxist because of a favorite son you are smoking crack.
It is SO much fun to obsess about veep selections but the fact of the matter is there are few candidates on the radar of either nominee who will change so much as one electoral vote.
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:51 pm
I think you might be right. Gas prices have been creeping down (now below $3.90 per gallon nationally, from a high of more than $4.10) and it may be a less contentious issue when voting happens. The price is likely to fall further after summer admixture and travel premiums slide off.
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:53 pm
GOT IT I think lets say one day this week Obama announces VP early in the morning like right after breakfast time when talk shows on mccain should announce same day?!
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:55 pm
#79 Greg, Do you think your candidate Obama will actually make his selection on Wednesday?
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:57 pm
i support mccain
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:59 pm
#81, really??? hhhmmm….
who is your choice for VP, for Johnny Mac?
August 3rd, 2008 at 7:00 pm
I think it’s rudy
August 3rd, 2008 at 7:01 pm
DSkinner and Big S,
What is going to bring oil down to $ 100 / barrel? Demand in China and India is skyrocketing. Our country and the energy market is based on global supply and demand, since we only control 25 % of our own oil needs. And, $0.50 on a gallon is speculation which will continue unabated and fluctuate depending on perceived supply risk. My guess is that oil will be closer to $ 150 / barrel than to $ 100 at election time….unless Congress comes back in September and does something to take speculation out of the pricing. Then, we have to hope there is no perceived supply disruption from a September-October hurricane in the Gulf while the refineries change over to heavy grade fuel oil for the New England winter fuel needs and reduce the supply of gas at the pump. Then of course, the Highway Trust Fund is broke and needs a bundle of money for highway repairs. This , of course, creates jobs, but adds $ 0.10 to $ 0.15 to a gallon of gas for increased taxes….also looming this fall. You are dreaming, guys.
August 3rd, 2008 at 7:05 pm
#83, WHO IS YOUR CHOICE?
August 3rd, 2008 at 7:07 pm
RUDY
August 3rd, 2008 at 7:08 pm
Bayh Bayh Obama!
Having Bayh as Obama’s VP is like putting lipstick on a pig.
August 3rd, 2008 at 7:10 pm
we can all agree both vp’s will be announced this week? correct
August 3rd, 2008 at 7:12 pm
China and India have recently made moves towards reducing or removing gasoline subsidies, which will result in a decrease in global demand. In addition to that, the summer months generally involve an increase in price over the rest of the year due to increased demand (up to 5% higher due to travel and efficiency losses in warm weather), and laws requiring more specialized formulas (to decrease smog-forming emissions, among other things). This results in a seasonal price transition that we see every year. I’m not as optimistic as DSkinner about the price drop, but you can expect a baseline decrease in price, barring any major outside market stimuli.
August 3rd, 2008 at 7:16 pm
Over at abcnew.com, Mitt is winning the online poll for VP pick. Huck is in 2nd.
August 3rd, 2008 at 7:16 pm
Also:
The threat of things like hurricanes is not unique to this year, but we see a cyclical price patter every year anyway. What IS unique to this year (compared to the last few, anyway) is increased stability and political progress in Iraq, which happens to be a major producer of oil.
August 3rd, 2008 at 7:18 pm
For those who missed Joe Lieberman and John Kerry on Meet the Press this morning, here are some choice excerpts from Kerry’s embarrassing performance on behalf of Barack Obama:
SEN. KERRY: Barack Obama is right about Iraq. Now George Bush, Prime Minister Maliki think we ought to set a deadline.
SEN. KERRY: On the surge, Joe and John McCain have both alleged that the surge created the “Anbar awakening.” It did not. The Anbar awakening began in 2005 and 2006. One of the local leaders in a tribe in Anbar province, a fellow named Abdul Sattar al-Rishawi put together some 32 sheiks who came together. They organized what was called the Anbar Salvation Council. They then went out and took on al-Qaeda, and our military personnel adjusted with that at the time. The fact is that the Ramadi construction conference took place, and the administration didn’t get a troop in there till after they’d made the political decision to become involved with the Americans. The surge added to that. If you add American troops to the equation, American troops can always provide some measure of security.
MR. BROKAW: Many people believe it wouldn’t have been possible for it to be as successful as it was without the surge, however.
SEN. KERRY: I, I, I, I…
SEN. LIEBERMAN: It, it would not have been. It simply would not have been. I mean…John, in saying this…I know you don’t intend this…but in saying this, you’re showing disrespect for the contribution and service and sacrifice of the American soldiers because the…
SEN. KERRY: No, you just cut me off when I was saying our soldiers did an extraordinary job.
SEN. LIEBERMAN: Well please, answer to that, because the awakening would not have gone forward without the strength and support that Colonel McFarland…the Army, the Marines gave them.
SEN. KERRY: Which I was in the middle of saying when you interrupted me.
SEN. LIEBERMAN: That’s what the sheiks told us. That’s why the sheiks don’t want our troops to come home on a fixed timetable today. They want us to stay.
SEN. KERRY: Well, the prime minister of Iraq believes we ought to set a timetable. The president, Mr. Talibani, thinks we ought to set a timetable. I’ve heard countless numbers of Iraqis say we’d be better off with a timetable. In fact, I met with the governor of Anbar province and all of the sheiks, who said to me they’re very comfortable to have a timetable, providing it, obviously, is one that works in the context of their ability to…
SEN. LIEBERMAN: Providing it’s based on conditions on the ground.
SEN. KERRY: All right. That’s the big difference. Maliki and Obama are not on the same page on this.
SEN. LIEBERMAN: OK, let me–here–there are two main reasons why I’m for John McCain. One is that he’s ready to be commander and chief and to deal with our problems at home and abroad. Secondly, we’ve got a big problem here in Washington that we have to solve before we get to solve Social Security, health care, jobs, gas crisis, environment, everything else. It’s partisanship. And John McCain certainly, as compared to Barack Obama, has a record–he’s a restless reformer. He fights the status quo. He reaches across party lines to get things done. That’s why he’s been one of the most productive senators in recent years. Senator Obama, with all respect, has no major legislative accomplishments.
SEN. KERRY: He just said that Barack Obama hasn’t passed any major piece of legislature. He just passed the most landmark, comprehensive ethics reform in the United States Senate. It’s now the law. So it’s just in effect. And secondly…
SEN. LIEBERMAN: Excuse me…that was Susan Collins, me…and Dianne Feinstein and John McCain.
SEN. KERRY: …Barack Obama led the fight on the Democratic side on that.
August 3rd, 2008 at 7:21 pm
BigS
Yes Iraqi production, without sabotage, would be very helpful. But of course, our major suppliers are Canada and Mexico. We just pay for supply disruptions, because we are part of the global oil pool. However, problems in Nigeria and Iran as well as any problems
in S.A will impact the global price and what we pay at the pump.
August 3rd, 2008 at 7:34 pm
we can all agree both vp’s will be announced this week? correct
August 3rd, 2008 at 7:46 pm
Let’s wait and not panic here. Let’s see if Obama can actually sustain a lead. I live in Ohio and never hear this Bayh until I did some research on him. W. Ohio is Republican and will remain Republican, NE Ohio is the battleground area where the HRC voters are, and that is an area that is not familiar with Indiana, but rather Pennsylvania.
So if this border issue is true, I say Romney or Ridge.
August 3rd, 2008 at 7:51 pm
#92 Aron, you Rock, great post.
August 3rd, 2008 at 7:52 pm
Greg, I don’t think there’s any strong reason to think McCain will pick this week.
August 3rd, 2008 at 7:59 pm
Greg, the better McCain does in the polls, the longer he can hold off. Obama cannot sustain his “bounces”, which is what will occur with the VP pick. Obama will receive a slight bounce and McCain will cut down the lead within a week. That has been the trend so far since May.
The one thing that the Cantor vetting tells us, is that McCain is going young and Conservative.
August 3rd, 2008 at 8:13 pm
No Romney. http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20080803/pl_politico/12258;_ylt=As8eBx9wzXCW8GEtCT8WL82WwvIE
August 3rd, 2008 at 8:27 pm
DaveG,
Nice omission of Romney. Geez, he wouldn’t put Michigan in play. That’s a fair analysis you wrote. NOT!!!!
August 3rd, 2008 at 8:28 pm
The Cantor vetting leak tells us that McCain is:
a) interested in an interesting out of the box pick (which is awesome)
b) worried about Virginia (which isn’t so good)
c) thinks he’s got a good shot at the Jewish vote (which is good)
d) not likely to pick Lieberman (which is awesome)
August 3rd, 2008 at 8:30 pm
#101, Youth as well. Don’t you think?
August 3rd, 2008 at 8:32 pm
I think oil will go down for the reasons Big S listed as well as the fact that I am convinced the Dems will have to act on OCS drilling. If they continue to not act, the GOP will continue to make this an issue because it is our only chance to win back favorability for the elections.
Also, Obama has already flipped which will give cover to a big amount of Dems. The only thing up in the air is exactly how they will construct their joint lie with the MSM about how the GOP was the real reason they waited so long to act.
OCS drilling combined with the fact that prices annually go down at this time will both remove some of the speculation bubble as well as continue to lower the demand that has already been cut due to people driving less this year. I think all of that leads to prices settling in at around 100 to 110 around election time. That drop will cause stocks to rally for a late year 5-10% rally in Sept/Oct.
August 3rd, 2008 at 8:32 pm
bob, that’s true. Although we already had that with Pawlenty.
I sort of class youth as “out of the box”, but its fair to make it a separate heading if you like
August 3rd, 2008 at 8:45 pm
#92 - Is there a clip of that exchange somewhere? I can’t find a thing on youtube…
August 3rd, 2008 at 8:45 pm
Other youthful picks:
- Jindal
- Palin
- Pawlenty
any others? And Romney’s “youthful good looks” don’t count…
August 3rd, 2008 at 8:55 pm
A few thoughts…
1. Intrade is not showing a massive move to Bayh yet, although he did over take Kaine yesterday.
2. Intrade is showing some pretty exciting movement in the general. It’s going to be Obama 50’s McCain 40’s pretty soon. For August 2nd, this is pretty amazing.
3. If McCain wants to guarantee victory, get Powell to run as the Veep. Palin is probably a close 2nd as to having the ability to actually improve numbers. Mitt is also a really good choice due to fundraising, acting as an attack dog, and helping in MI and in the Mountain West.
I see every other Veep choice as a wash.
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:00 pm
Bill C,
<a href=”http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/25998612#25998612″Click here to watch this morning’s Meet the Press. Lieberman and Kerry are on for the first half-hour.
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:03 pm
Sorry Bill,
Here’s the link:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/25998612#25998612
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:07 pm
#108,
“the ability to actually improve numbers”. I would add Fiorina to that list, there are a lot of single professional women, and married women over 40 who have her book on their book shelf. It is a New York Times and international bestseller.
Do not doubt her ability to attract female voters, especially the young, educated women who are supporting Obama.
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:12 pm
One question for all of you big Romney supporters out there. It seems like there have been many negative articles about Romney lately. There has also been a lot of talk about other prospective Veeps. Romney has been on vacation for two weeks, without once popping on TV to add a comment here or there. And yet, his intrade numbers still look very good. Could it be that Romney’s friends, surrogates, former staffers and Romney himself are the ones who are actually buying the intrade stock? Rather than regular joes out there who are investing in the Pawlenty, Palin, etc stocks? Maybe Romney is trying to make his stock look good.
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:13 pm
Well, not that you mentioned it. I have a few thousand Romney stock to sell.
Can I sell it to you for some Cantor or Palin? I am looking to increase my position in those.
LOL!
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:15 pm
Mitt is almost at 40 on Intrade right now. He has 20+ points on T-Paw.
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:17 pm
*now
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:18 pm
Texas, you’re kidding, right?
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:19 pm
Texas,
Yeah,sure, Intrade is probably a holiday avocation for the Romney family. Some Machiavellian ploy to mesmerize the McCain vetting team. What comes from having a good business head is that you secretly control everything.!!
Actually good topic though.
Bayh is UP 12.5 and the last bid was 35.9 compared to 25 for Kaine. The Bayh’s are probably vying with the Romney’s to control the world through Intrade because
Romney is UP 8.8 and the last bid was 38.5, up about 10 over Pawlenty and 20 over Cantor.
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:21 pm
Kavon, when exactly was it that you converted to being a Mitt-lover?
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:21 pm
Other than her own approval rating (which is recently sharply down according to Rasmussen), there’s no actual evidence for her being able to “move numbers.” What are you basing this on? She’s unknown to the vast majority of Americans, and holds some positions that are pretty unpopular with the voting public. She’s not without her own controversies, and is pretty inexperienced in government. You remember that “Britney Speaks” ad from a few days ago? McCain’s obviously going to hammer Obama on his thin resume, so why should he put someone on the ticket who is young and inexperienced, and is largely known for her looks?
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:23 pm
Most of these purchases in Intrade (US politics boards) are made by DC insiders and pundits. I will try to find the clip where I saw this.
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:24 pm
I can see it now:
“Sarah Palin … is she really ready to lead?”
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:25 pm
The McCain running mate if Bayh is the choice should either be someone who moves the numbers overall (Powell, Palin, etc) or someone who neutralizes the Bayh effect in the Great Lakes states. That’s Ridge or Pawlenty. I’ve been halfway in the Ridge tent for awhile now, and I don’t think he’d help a whit in any states other than PA and a few counties in eastern OH, but that could be the election this time around.
Let’s put it this way: if Obama is President-Elect three months from now because of 50,000 votes in Pennsylvania, do you really want to spend the next four years wishing you hadn’t been so hard on Tom Ridge?
Incidentally, if it’s not Bayh on Wednesday, I will be very surprised. I can’t think of a single other reason for Obama to be in South Bend, Indiana, this coming week.
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:25 pm
#119, “largely known for her looks”, you SUCK dude! This is the exact reason why we cannot obtain a majority of the women’s vote…..sexist comment like that.
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:27 pm
“Sarah Palin … is she really ready to lead?”
Yeah, Obama would totally do that. It’s not like it draws attention to his own lack of experience or anything.
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:30 pm
Oh, get over it. Take a look at the previous threads on this site and others. How many “hot librarian” comments are made by Palin admirers in the right wing blogosphere? Since that demographic makes up the vast majority of her support base, I feel comfortable making that generalization. All this talk of her “softer image” that you hear is really just a reference to perceived photogenicity (is that a word?) in contrast to McCain’s grizzled and grumpy old man image. Live by the image and die by the image, dude.
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:31 pm
Regarding Intrade, today’s volume on Romney is only 60 contracts. Just a couple hundred bucks.
There’s not enough money in the VP market for it to be meaningful.
Team McCain is doing a good job of with preventing leaks. Anything could happen.
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:31 pm
Oh, get over it. Take a look at the previous threads on this site and others. How many “hot librarian” comments are made by Palin admirers in the right wing blogosphere? Since that demographic makes up the vast majority of her support base, I feel comfortable making that generalization. All this talk of her “softer image” that you hear is really just a reference to perceived photogenicity (is that a word?) in contrast to McCain’s grizzled and grumpy old man image. Live by the image and die by the image, dude.
What’s wrong with having a good image?
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:32 pm
Attention will be drawn to his lack of experience anyway, whether he likes it or not. I’m sure the Obama campaign would love to have McCain dilute his own advantage on that issue with the selection of a newbie like Palin. He might not make such a statement himself, but you can bet his surrogates would.
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:33 pm
Someone’s trading the VP market right now. Mitt and TPaw just got a lot closer.
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:34 pm
Seriously, if Romney spent $45 million of his own money to be Pres, whose to say that he wouldn’t spend some more to be Veep. Or that those in the beltway and the pundits who donated money to his campaign for Pres aren’t investing for him now. Look how excited everyone gets when Romney’s stock goes up. Just sayin..
I would bet McCain’s actual Veep pick will have a low number with little or no movement because it will be a surprise.
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:37 pm
Big S, it is 2008. Just in case you forgot.
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:37 pm
There’s nothing wrong with having a good image. I’m just responding to those who freaked out when I said that much of Palin’s support (for the vice presidential nomination, anyway) is based on her image, or what some people think it is. The Palinmania around here is getting a little weird lately, with comments lumping her together with experienced, accomplished, known, and respected officials like Colin Powell, Joe Lieberman, Rudy Giuliani, and others.
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:40 pm
There’s nothing wrong with having a good image. I’m just responding to those who freaked out when I said that much of Palin’s support (for the vice presidential nomination, anyway) is based on her image, or what some people think it is. The Palinmania around here is getting a little weird lately, with comments lumping her together with experienced, accomplished, known, and respected officials like Colin Powell, Joe Lieberman, Rudy Giuliani, and others.
Of course it helps that she’s a young, attractive woman.
I like Palin a lot, and you can rest assured that it’s got nothing to do with her looks.
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:41 pm
#132 Big S, who compared her to the accomplishments of Colin Powell, Joe Lieberman, Rudy Giuliani?
btw, you insulted all of us Palin supporters, when you said we only supported her because she was good looking. That hurt, as you were implying we did not have any depth in our judgement.
btw, if anyone is interested, I would recommend this FEC site, to look up who has donated to who……http://www.fec.gov/finance/disclosure/disclosure_data_search.shtml
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:43 pm
What’s that supposed to mean? I’m just pointing out what I hear on these comment threads. Please do not interpret my remarks as some kind of sexist thing. I thought we were supposed to judge candidates on their records in 2008, rather than picking out the best arm charm for our soon-to-be presidential nominee. If you think any discussion of Palin’s looks (and the political ramifications thereof) are out of bounds, I’d encourage you to dissuade your fellow Palin supporters from using them as a justification for putting her on the ticket.
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:47 pm
If Palin were a he instead of a good-looking she - no story.
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:48 pm
It came up in yesterday’s “Veep Watch” thread. I’m too lazy to go find it right now, but rest assured, favorable comparisons were made. I believe the comment had to do with picking a “known quantity” like Powell, Lieberman, Giuliani, or … Palin.
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:49 pm
oh Martha, you are just jealous because Palin has everything Romney tried to lie to us about himself.
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:50 pm
If Palin were a he instead of a good-looking she - no story.
Maybe, maybe not. But if she helps because she’s a woman, so what?
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:50 pm
Except the hair.
He has way better hair than Palin.
I’ll give him that.
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:50 pm
#137, if someone said that, then I agree that is wrong…..
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:57 pm
Kristofer not quite. For one thing, Romney’s never been investigated for improper use of authority.
I like Palin, and as the mother of a child with DS, nothing would tickle me more than seeing the right-to-life for all DS kids issue highlighted. (90% abortion rate) What a powerful voice she could be. But her resume is thin indeed, and she is too much a wild card, when McCain doesn’t need one. She does nothing electorally.
When questioned the other day about becoming the VP nominee, she said she didn’t know much about what the VP job entails and needed to figure that our before she could consider the job. True, perhaps, but it showed a person entirely unprepared to hit the ground running.
August 3rd, 2008 at 10:01 pm
#142, try not to take comments of politicians literally. She was avoiding the quetion. If you read Larry Kudlow’s blog post after the interview, he summarized it very differently.
Clearly, Senator McCain and yourself have a difference of opinion on VP requirements. He is vetting Cantor, and not following your criteria.
August 3rd, 2008 at 10:08 pm
1) I think this week’s Bayh fakeout is equal to last week’s Kaine fakeout. I still think that BHO picks Sebelius.
2) Powell is the only true game changer and he won’t do it. I’d love it though. I’d also love Ridge but think it will be Pawlenty.
August 3rd, 2008 at 10:21 pm
There’s not enough money in the VP market for it to be meaningful.
Today’s Volume
VP Nominee
Romney 61
Crist 59
Cantor 31
Jindal 8
Lieberman 8
Portman 8
Ridge 8
Palin 8
Pawlenty 6
Presidential Election Winner
McCain 2,689
August 3rd, 2008 at 10:23 pm
#145: Thank you for putting that into perspective.
That really shows how no one really knows who the VP pick will be.
August 3rd, 2008 at 10:25 pm
#146, I am sure Cindy knows.
August 3rd, 2008 at 10:28 pm
Kristofer,
Your comments are often interesting. Yes, according to Cantor’s spokesman in Virginia, McCain is vetting Cantor. Of course, last week, McCain’s spokesman said he ( McCain ) had enough vetting done to pick a candidate last week, if he wanted to. What does that mean? It means probably that Eric Cantor, if he is being vetted, joins probably 6-12 others who have also been vetted to one degree or another.
August 3rd, 2008 at 10:29 pm
2,689 McCain contracts around 38 means sellers put up around $16.5K today against McCain and buyers around $10K for McCain.
$26K in one day, and that’s not counting the Obama contracts.
There’s been over $3 million traded on the McCain contract and over $2 million on the Obama contract total.
August 3rd, 2008 at 10:35 pm
#148, you might be correct, this could all be smoke and mirrors, or Cantor might be joining a list of 6-12 other young conservatives.
August 3rd, 2008 at 10:47 pm
VP pick may chafe Hillary supporters
August 3rd, 2008 at 10:57 pm
Huckabee can squash the momentum that Bayh would give to Obama.
Romney vs. Bayh? You can say President Obama right now.
Ridge vs. Bayh? Socons in Ohio, Virginia, etc. wouldn’t be thrilled.
August 3rd, 2008 at 11:00 pm
Private equity fears criticism if Romney VP
August 3rd, 2008 at 11:14 pm
SWEET!!! The people thought I was crazy, but the stars are aligning for Colin Powell. McCain-Powell will be the most boring election cycle ever because the outcome is a foregone conclusion.
Anyhoo, ontheissues.org on Bayh:
Rated 50% by NARAL, indicating a mixed voting record on abortion: Neutral on topic 1
Rated 25% by the NRLC, indicating a mixed record on abortion: Neutral on topic 1
Rated 100% by the NAACP, indicating a pro-affirmative-action stance: Strongly Favors topic 2
Rated 89% by the HRC, indicating a pro-gay-rights stance: Strongly Favors topic 3
Rated 100% by the AU, indicating support of church-state separation: Strongly Opposes topic 4
Rated 63% by CURE, indicating mixed votes on rehabilitation: Neutral on topic 9
Rated 75% by the NCJA, indicating a mixed record on criminal justice: Neutral on topic 9
Rated 75% by APHA, indicating a pro-public health record: Strongly Favors topic 5
Rated 90% by the ARA, indicating a pro-senior voting record: Strongly Opposes topic 6
Rated 91% by the NEA, indicating pro-public education votes: Strongly Opposes topic 7
Rated 74% by the LCV, indicating pro-environment votes: Strongly Favors topic 18
Rated 100% by the CAF, indicating support for energy independence: Favors topic 18
Rated 26% by NTU, indicating a “Big Spender” on tax votes: Strongly Favors topic 11
Rated 80% by the CTJ, indicating support of progressive taxation: Strongly Favors topic 11
Rated 16% by USBC, indicating an open-border stance: Strongly Favors topic 12
Rated 33% by CATO, indicating a mixed record on trade issues: Neutral on topic 13
Rated 30% by SANE, indicating a pro-military voting record: Strongly Favors topic 15
August 3rd, 2008 at 11:46 pm
BREAKING NEWS: Grenade attack kills 16 in China ahead of Games
Blast hits police at border station in frontier region home to dissidents
August 4th, 2008 at 12:08 am
142,
The comment about what the VP does was actaully a pretty savvy move by Palin…she knows as well as anyone that there is no job description and that the VP basicaly does whatever the President wants him/her to. Basically she said, “If you wan’t someone to help you win and then sit quietly on the sidelines for four years, forget about it. If you want a second-in-command, I’m in.”
August 4th, 2008 at 12:23 am
From Fox News Sunday w/Chris Wallace:
WALLACE: Senator Graham, given all of McCain’s talk about Obama’s inexperience, can he pick a governor who will have even fewer foreign policy credentials than Obama?
GRAHAM: I think John is well positioned to tell the American people without having to blink or to be confusing that, “I’m ready to be commander in chief.”
The big difference in this campaign is John McCain is the best prepared person to be commander in chief since Eisenhower. Senator Obama is the worst prepared person to be commander in chief at a time of war in the history of America. John needs to pick a running mate he feels comfortable with, that could take over if something happened to him. He’ll put the country first, above all other considerations on this issue as well as others.
August 4th, 2008 at 12:32 am
It would be a good choice by Obama. And the Bayh name is difficult to beat in Indiana. Luckily we have some with national experience who’s done it.
McCain/Quayle 08
August 4th, 2008 at 12:37 am
Aron, who do we disqualify with that comment?
August 4th, 2008 at 12:37 am
Palin for VP - There’s no reason to believe that Palin is ready to be 2nd in command of the US or to take over if something happened to McCain. Credibility is her biggest problem. She really is all hat, no cattle. (Even though it seems some think that because she’s beautiful and can fire a weapon, she’s qualified to be pres.)
August 4th, 2008 at 1:15 am
John needs to pick a running mate he feels comfortable with, that could take over if something happened to him. He’ll put the country first, above all other considerations on this issue
Rather than naming those who wouldn’t qualify, I’d prefer to list the six who indisputably do fit that description. Others could debatably be added.
Tom Ridge, Rudy Giuliani, Joe Lieberman, Colin Powell, David Petraeus, and Lindsey Graham.
August 4th, 2008 at 1:16 am
#161, Rice?
So Aron, deep in your soul, who do you believe it will be?
From that list, I prefer Rudy, then Graham, then Ridge.
August 4th, 2008 at 2:04 am
Graham? Ugh. He picks Graham, I walk.
August 4th, 2008 at 2:11 am
As McCain was putting his political neck on the line in support of a surge in Iraq, Rice was on the other side with Obama; not just opposed to the proposed troop build-up, but calling for withdrawal and conceding defeat.
When asked in April whether Secretary Rice’s role in the Iraq War should be taken into account, McCain said that all those who were involved in the failed strategy in Iraq “bear some responsibility. Of course I have put responsibility on the president, Rumsfeld, as well as Condoleezza Rice and to a lesser degree Secretary Powell.”
So Aron, deep in your soul, who do you believe it will be?
Heart says Rudy…Head says Graham or Ridge.
August 4th, 2008 at 5:20 am
What’s wrong with Graham? I don’t get the opposition to him. He’s conservative, he does a good job defending Republican positions on national defense. He knows how to go after Democrats in debates. He did a great job pushing back against Ted Kennedy in his ilk saying Republicans would “clean their clocks” when they tried to Bork Samuel Alito and slime a good man - even making his wife cry.
We could do much worse than Lindsey Graham.
August 4th, 2008 at 7:18 am
LG won’t be picked but he was absolutely awesome on FNS. Smashed Dashle to pieces.
August 4th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
I live just a couple minutes from South Bend, I sure hope I’m able to personally experience the excitement if there is any… even though I would never (and haven’t ever) vote for Bayh or Obama.