GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
William Kristol offers his insight on the internal divisions among McCain aides regarding the VP selection. Here is a particularly intriguing piece:
In his convention speech, McCain could say something like this:
“I will give you a reform administration that will put politics aside to work for all Americans. I pledge to turn the page on 16 years of often petty and mean-spirited partisanship so we can tackle the big challenges we face. So I pledge that neither I nor my vice president will seek re-election. Neither I nor my vice president will spend a day, an hour, a minute campaigning or raising money — not for ourselves nor for anyone else. There will be no political office in my White House — there will be no place for a Dick Morris, or (with all due respect) a Karl Rove.”
This opens up several unconventional V.P. possibilities. They include some who would reinforce the notion of a war presidency above politics, like Senator Joe Lieberman and Defense Secretary Robert Gates. Or perhaps someone with economic or domestic policy expertise — like New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, old McCain friend and FedEx C.E.O. Fred Smith or new McCain insider and former EBay C.E.O. Meg Whitman.
Most of the campaign staff strongly prefers a selection from the first two categories — do no harm or reinforce experience. McCain himself, on the other hand, is intrigued by the bolder possibilities of youth or bipartisanship.
Risky and unconventional, sure, but stranger things have come to pass. I must say that this kind of message could resonate with many voters, Republicans, Democrats, and Independents alike.
August 4th, 2008 at 11:31 pm
Tpaw seems like a done deal to me so I do not see the posted quote option happening. Waiting until Minnesota at the convention does make sense if it is Tpaw. They know him and will likely afford gentle applause. Then he can tour the state with JMac
August 4th, 2008 at 11:42 pm
Who knows? By September Obama could have imploded so much McCain could pick Cheney or Jeb Bush as VP just to shove it in the dems faces
I think McCain should not only unveil his VP at the convention, but a “shadow” cabinet as well. Look responsible and let people know he’s ready to lead immediately. They can divide the labor, campaign together and separately.
As for VP, I think it’ll come down to Pawlenty from catgeory 1, Romney from 2, Lieberman from 3 and Whitman from 4.
It’ll depend on the polls, what the state of play is, who Obama picks, a few other factors.
August 4th, 2008 at 11:50 pm
Here is what Kristol also said;
“And he could be especially intrigued by Sarah Palin and Meg Whitman. I run into plenty of moderate and conservative women who don’t consider themselves feminists but would be pleased to see a qualified woman on the ticket.
Especially if Obama picks a man, rejecting hope and change in favor of the same old patriarchy — won’t McCain be tempted to say: cherchez la femme?”
August 4th, 2008 at 11:59 pm
What about a change of culture?
August 5th, 2008 at 12:26 am
Personally I’m big into Kristols’s “Category 3″, but on the youth front, not the bipartisan one. Lieberman won’t be on the ticket (rightly) but Palin and Cantor are hopefully getting serious looks. Categories 1 and 2 don’t do enough for McCain, and Cat. 4 is too risky for even me right now.
August 5th, 2008 at 12:58 am
Is anyone familiar enough with Cantor to say whether he’s got a presidential aura? I know he looks good on paper, but does he have IT?
August 5th, 2008 at 1:17 am
WSJ on Cantor and cat. #3. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121789966299912231.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
It seems as if there is a cat. #3. Kristol is correct.
August 5th, 2008 at 1:33 am
Have you seen the Suffolk Poll?
McCain is down 9pts to Obama and McCain beats Obama in Massachussets if Romney is the Veep.
I don’t believe it. I do believe Obama would have to spend money in Massachussets. But lose Massaachussets?!?!?!?! That would be insane!!!!
August 5th, 2008 at 1:35 am
I guess Patrick Deval as governor robs Obama of his rationale to vote for him based on white guilt.
August 5th, 2008 at 5:11 am
Who is Meg Whitman?
August 5th, 2008 at 6:28 am
Unlike Obama, McCain needs to take a risk on a splashy Veep in order to both grab the headlines and indicate to voters that he isn’t the stodgy old guy that he appears.
http://www.political-buzz.com/
August 5th, 2008 at 6:54 am
Mary,
Meg Whitman was CEO of E Bay. She was Romney’s Finance Chair . She worked for Romney at Bain Capitol
August 5th, 2008 at 7:31 am
#10 - Exactly.
August 5th, 2008 at 7:38 am
Interesting conjecture on the web about Obama’s $ 5 million ad buy during the Olympics. The thought is that Obama would use the massive TV audience to introduce his VP pick, essentially USING the Olympic audience to buy a 2 -3 week audience advantage over McCain. This is unconventional but clever using the Olympics to advantage rather than just assume it is dead time. It is a very clever way to get to a huge audience, almost like advertising during the super bowl. Surprised the GOP doesn’t do something to address this audience.
August 5th, 2008 at 7:56 am
#14 - You are assuming the GOP has a strategy. That is the problem when you have a candidate that doesn’t line up with the political base of the party - you can’t develop a strategy with a candidate who will contradict your message. For conservative republicans, it doesn’t matter who McCain selects as the V.P. - we are not voting FOR McCain - we are voting AGAINST Obama. It worked for him in the primaries, just might work in the general.
August 5th, 2008 at 8:08 am
The NY Times has a very sobering piece of information this morning about changes in party registration since 2004. I know, its the NYT, but these are facts from State Registration Offices. Most troubling are the following:
1. Nevada has shifted from a nominally RED state in 2004 ( 40.5 % Republican to 40.1 % Dem ) to a solid BLUE state in 2008 with a 6 % difference in Registration between Democrats ( 43.2 % ) and Republicans ( 37.8 % ) in 2008.
2. Iowa has shifted from a nominally RED state in 2004 ( 31 % Republican to 30.8 % Dem ) to a solid BLUE state in 2008 with a 5 % difference between Dems and Republicans ( Democratic at 34.9 % and Republican at 30.2 % )
Of course , these are two states in the Blue Column in 2004
3. N Hampshire has gone from a solid Republican state in 2004 ( Republican at 31.2 % and Democratic at 26.7 % ) to a Toss -up in 2008 ( Republican at 31.1 % and Democratic at 30.5 % ).
This was a BLUE state we lost in 2004 and will evidently be more difficult in 2008
4. A reasonably sobering bit of information has to do with Pennsylvania and N. Jersey.
Pennsylvania went from a solid Democratic state in 2004 ( Democratic at 47.6 % and Republican at 40.7 % ) to a glacially frozen Democratic state in 2008 ( Democratic at 50.7 % and Republican at 38 % ) . New Jersey similarly went from a 6 % Democratic
Registration advantage in 2004 to a 14 % Democratic advantage in 2008
I know, I know, many will say that this means nothing and that, like the old spiritual, ” We shall Overcome.” But, a smart guy like Karl Rove, would look at these numbers and say, forget Pennsylvania and N. Jersey. Ain’t gonna happen with any GOP ticket.
Try hard to hold Iowa , but absolutely have to hold Nevada and have to win in New Hampshire. So, forget the advantage of local/regional flavor like Guiliani and Ridge in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. It won’t be enough. Have to look elsewher for BLUE
STATE pickings except N. Hampshire
Now, as I said, the NYT is a crock and they lie all the time, but Registration numbers are what they are and you / we have to work with the cards we are dealt.
August 5th, 2008 at 8:11 am
Republicans will have to win this election the old fashioned way - fight dirty - nobody is better at that than McCain - it gives me some hope.
August 5th, 2008 at 8:17 am
JamesB,
I think you are right on the money. The absence of a visible strategy, ( notice I said visible ) is troubling. So far, McCain seems to be cobbling a series of daily reactions to Obama, rather than following a coherent plan that culminates in specific achievement by election day.In the context of a strategy, the VP choice is but one element in the overall playbook, an important one, but only one. A historic strategy could have Mccain on the high road with bold and positive views about the direction the country needs to take and his VP on the ” low ” road, hammering Obama on a daily basis , forcing Barack to daily react and leaving him little time to be on that High road with McCain. This strategy effectively neutralizes the Democratic VP . This is the kind of strategy a Rove would pick. I just don’t see it yet.
August 5th, 2008 at 8:25 am
Partisanship is - gasp! - a positive thing for this country. Its good to have debate on issues, to have organized camps for and against certain things, people determined to pass something and people equally determined to oppose it.
Without partisanship, we have one of two things - either a one party state (Which generally doesn’t work out that well), or endless compromise “meet-in-the-middle” policies that try to mash together two ideological viewpoints and usually ends up creating a bill that A) Doesn’t work that well, and B) Is hated by more people than either of the original views.
Just look at McCain-Kennedy.
August 5th, 2008 at 8:25 am
#16
Registration doesn’t really matter; Oklahoma is solidly Democratic in registration (although the Republicans are gaining ground quickly).
August 5th, 2008 at 8:36 am
#19 - Don’t forget McCain-Feingold and McCain-Lieberman - I know the rest of the conservative base hasn’t. http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_020508/content/01125107.guest.html
August 5th, 2008 at 8:43 am
Rasmussen got MAC up 1 again.. 47-46%
August 5th, 2008 at 8:47 am
Why wait four years? McCain could step down now. Makes just as much sense. I would love to actually see him put his heart into this campaign and try to be convincing.
August 5th, 2008 at 8:50 am
This is too fascinating to not post, sorry for the thread drift:
http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/08/05/why-is-maya-soetoros-name-on-baracks-phony-certificate-of-live-birth/
http://texasdarlin.wordpress.com/2008/08/05/breaking-sister-mayas-birth-certificate-used-to-forge-obamas/
August 5th, 2008 at 8:59 am
Jamison,
Maybe in Oklahoma, but I suspect Oklahoma is an anomaly. In Georgia, for example, if black registration is up 10 %, the overall state numbers will absolutely shift to the left. I am not concerned about Oklahoma and Kansas and Utah. I am far more concerned about Iowa and Colorado and Nevada. The GOP has no margin for error. We have to carry these states again….unless there are some BLUE states to pick off. What states that went Democratic in 2004 will we carry in 2008?
August 5th, 2008 at 9:05 am
#24: We have a shot of carrying the following 4 blue states this time
NH- it is McCain’s second home state. In the end, those flinty New Hampshirites will vote for McCain
MI- regardless of the VP pick, MI could be won. Their economy is abysmal and they have a Dem. Governor to blame it on
WI- one of the closest states last time, it may well be very close again this time
PA- lots of those “bitter gun-clinging religious” types that Obama understands so well
if things start going our way I think a couple of Northeastern states could be in play: CT, DE, ME, and NJ
August 5th, 2008 at 9:05 am
sorry #26 was meant to address #25
August 5th, 2008 at 9:14 am
Jonathan,
I partly agree with you. N.Hampshire and Michigan are our best shots. Wisconsin will be difficult. In my humble opinion, with a 13 % registration disadvantage, largely comprised of a huge increase in Philadelphia, I think Pennsylvania will be almost impossible with any ticket, including Tom Ridge. In fact, I would go so far as to say, Ridge would have a hard time, if he were at the top of the ticket this year. Delaware and Maine are long shot possibilities in a really great landslide year. New Jersey and Connecticut are about as likely as New York and Pennsylvania…that is, almost impossible and McCain should put absolutely 0 dollars in those states.
August 5th, 2008 at 9:19 am
#28: “McCain should put absolutely 0 dollars in those states”
Be careful what you wish for. McCain has spent $0.00 on TV ads down here in FL and Obama has spent $5 million
and the end result? McCain up by 5.
August 5th, 2008 at 9:19 am
palin just destroyed her VP chances today and may have destroyed her future
she has easily had the most self-destructive week of any vp contender maybe ever
August 5th, 2008 at 9:40 am
Jonathan,
I would hope that McCain is not so self absorbed to think that he can win Florida without a major media effort and a very strong ground game. It’s not Obama’s ad buys that bother me. It’s his investment in ground troops and offices and GOTV people that pays big dividends on election day. McCain has spent 0 dollars here in Georgia because he thinks he is a shoe in. He may be, but Democratic registration is up a couple of 100,000 votes since 2004. I still believe, Florida is a better chance than N. Jersey and Pennsylvania. If I had a extra million, it would go to Florida and not a dime to New Jersey and Pennsylvania.We can win without Pennsylvania and New Jersey. I don’t see how we win without Florida.
August 5th, 2008 at 9:54 am
#31:
I know what you meant, I was just being a smart ass. McCain is simply waiting to spend his money. Remember,
Obama has a huge spending overhead. He has about 800 paid people on his staff. Obama has to raise $50 million
a month from now until November just to stay out of the red. McCain needs to sit on that money for a bit and
then release an ad blitz starting in the fall.
August 5th, 2008 at 10:05 am
Absolutely not Bloomberg. There are many VP choices who are acceptable, but if McCain choses Bloomberg
I am afraid I will have to hold my nose while I vote for McCain. This pick could really repel the base
and perhaps make Barr, etc the choice for many voters. There is no pick riskier then Bloomberg.
August 5th, 2008 at 10:07 am
Jim W #1 is correct. If it is T-Paw, then perhaps waiting until the convention is a great idea. Let
the Governor speak (as would be customary) and then have McCain make the “surprise” announcement. This
would get intense press coverage.
August 5th, 2008 at 10:12 am
Jim W,
You have the watchword of the day for a T-Paw pick……….gentle applause.
August 5th, 2008 at 10:24 am
Jamison,
“Registration doesn’t really matter; Oklahoma is solidly Democratic in registration (although the Republicans are gaining ground quickly).”
I think it does. Remember Oklahoma is (partially) a southern state, so Democrats down there are a breed apart from the Dems in NJ, NH, etc…. Mississippi is also overwhelmingly Democrat as far as registration goes. But what is troubling here is not so much the raw numbers, but the movement. When toss up states are trending left in registration, that’s not a good sign. And remember that Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire all had competitive Republican races this year.
August 5th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
What I was meaning is we can win states with that have more Democrat voters. Just because there are fewer Republicans does not mean that state is a lost cause.
Yes, Oklahoma is a southern state, and our Democrats are a bit more conservative as well…
August 5th, 2008 at 7:54 pm
Interesting, but re the Kristol piece, when it comes to the mention of Karl Rove the “(with all due respect)” line is NOT necessary. Rove is not due any respects by McCain, the GOP or the Nation for that matter. His manipulative mudslinging in 2000 cost McCain the nomination that year (recall South Carolina). The result has almost destroyed the GOP and has cost the country billions if not trillions in treasure, not to mention many lives lost in a grossly mismanaged war initiated for highly questionable reasons. No, no respect to Karl Rove is due–period.