GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
SurveyUSA Oregon General Election
- Barack Obama 48% (48%)
- John McCain 45% (45%)
Survey of 629 likely voters was conducted August 2-4. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 17-19 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
Obama leads by 13 points in greater Portland; McCain leads by 14 in the rest of the state.
Among voters younger than Obama, Obama leads by 15 points. Among voters older than McCain, Obama leads by 9. Among voters who are in between the ages of the two candidates, McCain leads by 9.
McCain holds 82% of the GOP base. Obama holds 80% of the Democrat base. Independents split.
McCain is backed by 80% of conservatives. Obama is backed by 83% of liberals. Moderates break 5:3 for Obama.
McCain leads 2:1 among those who attend religious services regularly. Obama leads 2:1 among those who almost never attend religious services.
Among men, McCain leads by 5 points. Among women, Obama leads by 13.
August 6th, 2008 at 8:13 pm
Put OR into the swing state column - and that leaves 270towin’s count at 210-163 for Obama, but that is without giving FL to McCain.
August 6th, 2008 at 8:16 pm
Swing that mofo!
August 6th, 2008 at 8:19 pm
Put Ted Kulongoski opn the ticket, or a woman.
August 6th, 2008 at 8:20 pm
Oregon?
Hmmmm…….I wonder which Veep could help in Oregon. That Dem governor? Romney maybe could excite the eastern LDS population? Fascinating….
August 6th, 2008 at 8:20 pm
Not to rain on anyone’s parade - but it’s not ultimately gonna happen here for us. Still - a couple more polls like this and that will mean one less day Obama can camp out in Ohio in October.
August 6th, 2008 at 8:28 pm
The margin is 4%, so McCain could actually be leading here. WOW!
August 6th, 2008 at 8:36 pm
Most swingable states from 04, IMO:
1. NH
2. OR
3. Tie: MI, PA
August 6th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
Come on guys. Ask Gordon Smith who thinks is going to win in Oregon in three months. On second thought we don’t even need to. He’s trying to make nice with Obama supporters just to hang on. It might work for him - which is good for us after the election is over - but it sure doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in our ability to swing the state our way in a presidential election.
August 6th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
McCain needs to keep his eye on the ball: Focus like a laser beam on OH, VA, CO, NV. He should also keep throwing money at MI. If it looks close then he should make that a priority too.
August 6th, 2008 at 8:45 pm
I thought I might throw this into the mix - but we had the primary here in MI yesterday, and the Democratic incumbent (Levin, a long-time office holder) only got 41% of the vote - to the GOP challenger’s 36%.
This seat MAY just be in play.
August 6th, 2008 at 8:46 pm
Kerry only won Oregon by 4%. With McCain’s environmental record, he can win this state. Oregon is a swing state. In fact, McCain was beating Clinton in head-to-head match-ups in polling in the spring.
August 6th, 2008 at 9:03 pm
Wow… Oregon back in play? Add the Bradley effect… McCain could easily win this. With how tough the environment is for him right now, and how the media worships Obama, McCain shouldn’t be this close.
As I’ve said before, McCain could win in a landslide.
August 6th, 2008 at 9:34 pm
I’m inclined mostly toward Adam’s view — concentrate on holding all the Bush ‘04 states, with a secondary emphasis on Michigan and Pennsylvania. If, in October, things are looking good there, and Oregon is close, then that’s the time to spend a couple days in Portland and Corvallis.
Hmmm … November 1, ASU Sun Devils at Oregon State in Corvallis. Well, maybe that’s not the best day for McCain to visit.
August 6th, 2008 at 9:48 pm
Guess who visited the troops at Landsduhl, the same base Obama decided not to visit, because he had a political rally to attend.
http://beldar.blogs.com/beldarblog/2008/07/palin-versus-ob.html
August 6th, 2008 at 9:54 pm
alright, anyone who is interested:
http://www.blogtalkradio.com/act-cast
show is at 11.
August 6th, 2008 at 10:03 pm
Kristofer:
Thanks for that link. Good on her!
August 6th, 2008 at 10:16 pm
Several months ago, most of you laughed at me when I said we may be able to win Oregon.
August 6th, 2008 at 10:42 pm
#13 Go Devils!!
August 6th, 2008 at 11:10 pm
Would someone please explain “margin of error” for me? I’m new at understanding polls.
August 6th, 2008 at 11:13 pm
Where is Obama’s Wife hiding?
August 6th, 2008 at 11:13 pm
Why is Obama’s Wife in hiding?
August 6th, 2008 at 11:18 pm
Beth, basically, it is saying that there is a 5% chance that the percentage is outside of the posted margin of error.
For example, if McCain leads Obama by 44% to 43%, and it states that there is a margin of error of 2, then we can be 95% certain that McCain’s percentage is between 42% and 46%, and that Obama’s percentage is between 41% and 45%
August 6th, 2008 at 11:19 pm
I’m not surprised, McCain said he wanted to compete in WA, OR and CA. Bush only lost OR by about 7000 votes. I think OR is good McCain country, even thought the state is actually turning more blue because of the Bend area (which used to be conservative), has turned liberal in just the past 10 years or so with so many CA transplants moving in.
I hope McCain pulls off OR. I would absolutely love it, elections can get pretty depressing around here! I think Romney helps the ticket here, and not necessarily because of Mormons.
August 6th, 2008 at 11:19 pm
Beth: The margin of error is the amount that (with 95% certainty) the actual numbers might vary from the results of the poll.
Example: This poll has an MoE of 4. Therefore, when the pollsters say McCain has 45%, they are really saying that if they had polled everybody in Oregon, McCain would have between 41% and 49%, while Obama would have between 44% and 52%.
They also are saying that there is a 5% likelihood that their results are total garbage (okay, not quite) and are off by more than the MoE.
August 6th, 2008 at 11:24 pm
Thanks for backing me up Bob!
August 6th, 2008 at 11:32 pm
It’s a shame the GOP has fallen apart in CA. If we could win there, we’d never lose an election.
For all the talk about Reagan, he was incredibly fortunate to have been Gov of CA and not some other state.
BTW, it’s been a few weeks since we had all those reports about McCain naming his VP and all. I think it’s clear he’s not gonna do it until right before the convention, maybe even draw it out into the convention.
So that means another few weeks of speculation.
August 6th, 2008 at 11:39 pm
Oops, Il-guy beat me to it, but it looks like we agree (for once).
August 7th, 2008 at 12:53 am
Thanks for all the explanations of “margin of error!”
August 7th, 2008 at 1:46 am
Some numbers:
There are 90,000 Mormons in Oregon.
Almost two million people voted in Oregon in the 2004 presidential election.
Kerry beat Bush by about 76,000 votes.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:53 am
Whoops, I guess I was a little off on the Kerry/Bush numbers. So sorry.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:55 am
Gore is the one who beat Bush by only about 7000 votes in Oregon.
August 7th, 2008 at 4:17 am
Race is a huge factor in this race - Oregon is 90.5% white - there are still a lot of prejudice out there - just look at the O.J. Simpson trial - most of the white folks thought O.J. was guilty - the majority of the blacks thought he was innocent (or maybe thought he was guilty but they weren’t going to hang one of their own). I think there are still a lot of bigots out there - even amonst the democrats - more than half of them didn’t pull the lever for Obama in the primary - and may just a bit like those jurors on the O.J. Simpson trial - they don’t really care for republicans, but then, they really don’t want to see one of their own - and a war hero at that - for the presidency.
August 7th, 2008 at 4:17 am
Race is a huge factor in this race - Oregon is 90.5% white - there are still a lot of prejudice out there - just look at the O.J. Simpson trial - most of the white folks thought O.J. was guilty - the majority of the blacks thought he was innocent (or maybe thought he was guilty but they weren’t going to hang one of their own). I think there are still a lot of bigots out there - even amonst the democrats - more than half of them didn’t pull the lever for Obama in the primary - and may just a bit like those jurors on the O.J. Simpson trial - they don’t really care for republicans, but then, they really don’t want to see one of their own - and a war hero at that - get beat by a black man for the presidency.
August 7th, 2008 at 4:37 am
I still think that Oregon is not quite as Purple as the other swing states, but it is winable.
August 7th, 2008 at 9:21 am
This is a lot closer than I thought it would be. I guess I lump OR and WA in the same boat- cleary that is a bad practice.
August 7th, 2008 at 9:36 am
I think it is true that both states are similar, but Oregon is not quite as Blue. Many people think that Oregon is actually more liberal because they figure that nobody lives in the interior and that Portland and the coast run the show. However, Portand does have a suburban (and exurban) areas that are not quite as liberal and more people live in the Conservative interior than many think. Thus, on balance, Oregon is slightly more Conservative than Washington.
August 7th, 2008 at 9:43 am
I still think OR is fools gold. Only slightly less blue than NJ. I wanna see a few more polls showing a tight race before I get too excited. Ras still has Obama up high single digits.
August 7th, 2008 at 9:48 am
I do not think it is quite fool gold, but it is still a very Blue shade of Purple instead of Burgundy.
August 7th, 2008 at 10:14 am
#35 - Having lived in both states, I can tell you that OR and WA are in totally different categories. While I agree with Joe that OR is likely Republican fool’s gold, there’s at least a realistic shot. Portland itself is super liberal, but like Ohio Joe said, the Portland suburbs become conservative much more quickly than Seattle’s do, and the state’s interior is more conservative than Washington’s. Also, Washington’s population is much more lopsidedly lumped into the Seattle area than Oregon’s is with regards to the Portland area. But I don’t think McCain is going to win here. I would put money on Smith holding his seat, but not anything beyond that.
August 7th, 2008 at 10:55 am
JamesB - Oregon may be 90% white, but don’t assume that makes it a prejudiced state. The west, by and large, is far less prejudiced than most areas. And Oregon is pretty much a live-and-let-live kind of place. Oregon moved beyond race a long, long time ago.
August 7th, 2008 at 10:59 am
Oregon is good McCain country because McCain is not all that conservative, he’s a big global warming believer, and he has that maverick persona that Oregonians seem to like. If Bush can lose to Gore by only 7000 votes, McCain can do well here. Even though Oregon is a blue state, we don’t go for higher taxes very often. That will hurt Obama here.
August 7th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
Martha, and others; about (4) months ago, I got laughed at for even suggesting that we can win Oregon. How times have changed. Of course, back then, most people were again playing identity politics too, and now look at them.
Sarah Palin may be a conservative; I’ll give her that, but:
She has very little experience.
She is praising Obama unnecessarily, and by omission condemning McCain
She (rightfully or wrongly) is in the middle of a scandal.
If she wasn’t wearing a skirt, she wouldn’t even be looked at this time around. That, my friends, is identity politics.
August 7th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
Make that ‘against’ playing identity politics.
August 7th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
I am a native Oregonian. I grew up in Eastern Oregon. And no, I don’t mean Bend. I mean Malheur County. You can’t get further East without getting into Idaho.
I have lived in Western Oregon. Yes, Portland is fairly liberal. It’s got nothing on Berkeley North, AKA Eugene, though. And the Salem area is the state capitol with all the liberals that government attracts.
Oregon is a hard state to pigeon-hole. I heard one commentator discribe as “Conservative, except when they are being Liberal”.
August 7th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
Important Fact: Oregon is an exclusive vote-by-mail state. All votes are cast in
the weeks prior to the actual election date with turn-in rates tracked by the
local election offices. I worked a municipal election in 2006 and we got a
list of who turned in their ballot so we could concentrate our get-out-the-vote
activities on those who havent. Plus with a number of days with ballots out, efforts
dont have to be concentrated on a few hectic hours.
A campaign that is stronger with the boots-on
the ground set of volunteers can score an advantage over those who dont campaign
that way. Right now, Obama certainly has an advantage in this department in
general.