August 7, 2008
Poll Watch: Gallup Daily Tracking Update (8/7)
Gallup Daily General Election Tracking (8/7)
- Barack Obama 46%
- John McCain 43%
Survey of 2,691 registered voters was conducted August 4-6. The margin of error is ±2 percentage points.
http://race42008.com/2008/08/07/poll-watch-gallup-daily-tracking-update-87/trackback/
August 7th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Preemptive strike:
MARGIN OF ERROR, PEOPLE.
August 7th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
when the polls are spitting out the same number day after day, its time to stop talking about margin of error and start talking about why McCain can’t get any traction.
A sudden bump for Obama can be attributed to margin of error if it doesn’t last, McCain constantly being stuck below 45% can’t.
The polls show that Obama is constantly between 44% and 48%, and McCain is constantly between 40% and 44%. That isn’t going to win us this election.
August 7th, 2008 at 12:49 pm
The undecideds should break our way.
August 7th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
This poll is strictly for water cooler conversation. It means absolutely nothing…
http://www.political-buzz.com/
August 7th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
Although the margin of error in any individual poll is important, one also needs to consider the trends. So far, this has been a remarkably stable race, with a few short-lived fluctuations about the average position of approximately Obama 46, McCain 42-43. Obama has a small but real lead over McCain, but it’s still pretty early and opinions can change.
August 7th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Neither mid 40’s nor low 40’s will win the election. The undecideds will push someone above or darn close to 50 percent. The $64M question is “Which candidate”? Obama has a history of late-breaking voters swinging against him and there are lots of undecideds this year.
August 7th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
What a shocking statement from an Obama supporter! No doubt that a tracking poll that samples 3,000 American voters every single day is utterly worthless. Perhaps I should allow nothing but the posting of CBS/NYT’s polls and Zogby interactive polls to better serve my Obama supporting readers?
August 7th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
I would think that someone so concerned with “Political Buzz” that he feels it merits constant spamming would actually, you know, LIKE water cooler conversation.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
ACT Blog…. Please stop the dumb comments. It’s August. Polls mean little now.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
The thing that annoys me about Matt isn’t his spamming, it the fact that I’m pretty sure he was a Republican during primary season and only flip-flopped to Obamamania in the past few months.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
Yeah well Matt’s spamming does annoy me…..I mean when was the last time he actually had a meaningful comment more than a sentence long? I can’t remember one. When was the last time he didn’t add his URL on the end? I can’t remember……How is that not being an annoying troll?
August 7th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
The Conventions and their associated media will/should give Obama a big boost and the GOP convention will/should give McCain a big boost. The question is, if you start 3/4 points down before the Dem boost. Will the GOP boost catch up or leave the Dems with a 7-8 pt lead leaving the conventions.
There are several factors associated with these conventions this year, particularly if the VP announcement is close to or coincident with the conventions.
Only 7 weeks from the end of the conventions to the election.
What is the level of convention ” turbulance”; i.e., outside and inside demonstrations.
What is the impact of the VP announcements, given that the voters THIS YEAR say the choice will strongly affect 35 % of the voters and 44 % of the voters are still undecided or ” weakly committed.”
The impact of the candidates convention speeches and the publics comparison between the two. Not just facts and substance but image and impact.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
“No doubt that a tracking poll that samples 3,000 American voters every single day is utterly worthless.”
Um, Kavon, I think you are a little confused about how Gallup is doing their polling. They interview at least 1,000 each day, then weed out those not registered, then average the last 3 days’ results. It’s not 3,000 each day. Your greater point, however, is spot on.
“MARGIN OF ERROR, PEOPLE.”
I generally enjoy your commentary, Alex, but I’m thinking you aren’t a statistics major. Yes, the margin of errir is listed as +- 2%, but that doesn’t mean they will have results consistently to one side or the other of the margin. At this point, the odds that Sen McCain is/was actually leading this race (and not just from an outlier) are pretty astronomical. It’s one of the advantages of using a rolling average. That Sen McCain has never lead in the Gallup average isn’t just a function of the margins, it’s because he probably hasn’t ever lead for more than a day or two in the daily results, and those could have been outliers or just pushing the edges of the margin. I could blather on, but (a) I’m probably boring everyone to tears, and (b) others likely have abetter grasp on it than I do.
August 7th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
Yes, McCain has never truly lead the race for more than a day or outside statistical significance. However, take into account all the handicaps Obama has on his side and tying him is practically beating him. Without a doubt, Democrat party affiliation is climbing versus Republican ones. The media has been carrying water for Obama non-stop. The current administration has not helped the Republican brand much recently. Factor in the Bradley effect for overstating Obama support and McCain is in a pretty comfy position right now.
August 7th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
Richard,
Thanks for the catch… I got flustered while typing!
August 7th, 2008 at 4:00 pm
McCain can win this - it’s all about getting people out to vote people!
August 7th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
Don’t be so quick to give up, Kavon. You still are right.
Every single day, Gallup has a poll that is a sample of 3000 people — 1000 from two days before, 1000 from the previous day, and one thousand from that day.
So you see, you still are right.
Do you get the impression that we are just treading water? And what is with all this anomisity towards Matt? He has been behaving himself quite well, in my opinion.
Is that just another sign that we have very little to talk about?
August 7th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
Question, if this is just “Margin of Error” stuff, why does the MOE seem to always favor Obama? If it truly was MOE, shouldn’t it favor both of them fairly equally?
Any statistics people care to comment?
August 7th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
The Gallop poll is conducted using 1000 people each day. Then the results are averaged. That is quite different than throwing all three of them into the barrel and using that as the sample size for one poll.
Mark, you are right about the MOE thing. For Obama to consistently lead day after day, although within the margin of error, means that there is a very great likelihood that he does, in fact, lead. That is, of course, that the sampling methods are correct. If Obama continues to feed McCain’s managers sufficient fodder, Mac should be able to pull this one off by fall. Unless, of course he picks some knucklehead for the VP spot. Thirty percent of the people are saying the VP will influence who they vote for. It is a huge factor this year.
August 7th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
Illini-guy,
Unless the different days are differently weighted, it still amounts to a 3000 sample poll, does it not?
August 7th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Seeing the stability of these polls, coupled with the large pool of undecided and weakly decided voters, I can’t help but think that a lot of folks are waiting for some big event to push them one way or another.
Because of this, in addition to the VP selection, I also think that a major gaffe could be more damaging to either candidate this year than most other years. This election could well be decided by who blows it in one spectacular moment.
August 7th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
Another thought…..
Conventional wisdom has it that undecideds generally break more for the challenger, since the incumbant is the known commodity. Could the case be made that either of these men is the “incumbant” (not literally of course).
McCain is the standard bearer for the incumbant party.
Obama has received the overwhelming share of media attention (to the point of saturation if a recent poll is to be believed).
August 7th, 2008 at 6:01 pm
http://www.act-blog.co.nr,
You provide some very important insight on your talk show, I am impressed, but, you offer nothing but negativity towards Republicans (other than Mitt) on this blog. You are starting to sound as bad as “Matt”.
“McCain can’t get any traction”. Ladt year, if any pundit or blogger had predicted the Republican candidate would be 3% behind the Democratic candidate in August, they would have been laughed off the show or blog they were on. This is remarkable. We are lucky to have McCain as our candidate.
If you would like to continue to tear down Republicans, I am sure your voice will be welcomed over at KOS.
August 7th, 2008 at 7:26 pm
I generally enjoy your commentary, Alex, but I’m thinking you aren’t a statistics major. Yes, the margin of errir is listed as +- 2%, but that doesn’t mean they will have results consistently to one side or the other of the margin.
You misunderstood, as did many. Probably my lack of communication. I should have said: “Before everyone starts hyperventilating about OBAMA TAKING A LEAD AGAIN!!!!!, remember that the race is STATISTICALLY TIED.
August 8th, 2008 at 6:14 am
Every single day, Gallup has a poll that is a sample of 3000 people — 1000 from two days before, 1000 from the previous day, and one thousand from that day.
Not quite accurate, but close. This poll’s sample size was 2,691, due no doubt to people polled not being registered, and thus were eliminated from the 1,000 polled each day.
Alex, while this result is certainly within the margin, odds are heavily in favor of a lead for Sen Obama, and right about a 3% lead. We can’t really say it’s tied, and should be realistic about it.
As for you greater point that too many are too wrapped up in small movement each day (which I agree with and plead guilty to), what else would you like us to talk about? Should we expound endlessly about how perfect/fatally flawed Gov Romney is as VP? Oh, wait, we already do that…8)