The Candidates
Looks like the official announcement is 24 to 48 hours away:
The NYT newsroom was buzzing late Monday afternoon after Obama-beat reporter Jeff Zeleny learned how the Dem hopeful has now finalized his choice for a running-mate.
Obama has set an elaborate roll-out to announce his decision that will begin with an early morning e-mail to supporters, perhaps as early as Tuesday, Zeleny and Adam Nagourney have been told.
A top source close to Caroline Kennedy tells DRUDGE — the pick is more likely to come early Wednesday morning.
Is it Nunn? Is it Kaine? Is Hillary there? What about Kerry? Bayh? Biden?
Developing… all night [week?] long
I suppose I should get my pick on the record. I think it will go one of two ways. If Obama is feeling comfortable with his chances he’ll go the safe route and pick Joe Biden. But if he’s feeling nervous about his slide in the national and state polls, he’ll pick Hillary Clinton. I think Biden is fine and is probably the best “do no harm” pick that Obama has available. He has decent foreign policy credentials and is moderately well known. He does have an atrocious case of foot-in-mouth disease and there is that whole plagiarism busy, but overall he has less downsides than most of the other names being floated. Sam Nunn is way too conservative, Evan Bayh is way too hawkish, Kaine is just ridiculous and I have no idea how he even got serious consideration in the first place, and Sebelius is not named Hillary Clinton.
On the other hand, I think there is more of a chance, especially in the past 2 weeks, that Obama will end up picking Hillary as his VP. I used to think that such a thing was next to impossible but as his veep search has dragged on and on, the list of names has gotten increasingly boring and stale, all the while McCain has gained significant ground. One of the biggest obstacles to Hillary being picked was Bill. But he and Obama reportedly met privately last month and supposedly the conservation went well. Hillary also provides Obama with much needed support among the so called PUMAs, who I personally know at least 6 of here in Milwaukee. These are Democrats who were ardent supporters of Hillary in the primaries but who are on the fence or leaning McCain during the general election.
So the question is, will it be one of the people above or will it be someone completely out of left field?
Update: Here’s the key part of the NYT article:
Senator Barack Obama has all but settled on his choice for a running mate and set an elaborate rollout plan for his decision, beginning with an early morning alert to supporters, perhaps as soon as Wednesday morning, aides said.
Mr. Obama’s deliberations remain remarkably closely held. Aides said perhaps a half-dozen advisers were involved in the final discussions in an effort to enforce a command that Mr. Obama issued to staff: that his decision not leak out until supporters are notified.
Mr. Obama had not notified his choice — or any of those not selected — of his decision as of late Monday, advisers said. Going into the final days, Mr. Obama was said to be focused mainly on three candidates: Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, Gov. Tim Kaine of Virginia and Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware.
For such a notoriously leak adverse campaign, it does seem quite odd that these three are consistently being leaked. I agree with Allahpundit here, this might be a huge head fake…or it could just be that Obama has really settled on those three.
Even so, leaking the names of Bayh, Biden, and Kaine seems odd when Obama’s playing everything else so close to the vest. Almost seems like a deliberate decoy, designed to draw us away from the actual nominee so that when the announcement drops it’ll go off like a nuclear blast. You don’t suppose…
August 18th, 2008 at 6:04 pm
I really don’t consider Biden a “do no harm pick”. He will shoot his mouth off a few times between now and the election that will probably not end up costing votes by being offensive, but they will cost the Obama campaign a few news cycles trying to mop up after them.
August 18th, 2008 at 6:07 pm
My guess is Biden.
August 18th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
CNN thinks McCain will announce his VP on the 29th.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/18/mccain-planning-big-rally-in-ohio-day-after-dem-convention/
August 18th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
If it is Hillary, the only solution on our side is……
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Huckabee.
August 18th, 2008 at 6:18 pm
I sure hope McCain does not announce on the 29th. I’ll be out of the country. That would really ruin all this fun I have been having for the past few months speculating who the VP will be.
August 18th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
I am reminded of the times I fed popcorn to ducks and geese in a pond. You would toss a few kernels into one spot. The flock would madly chase after them. Then you would toss another few kernals somewhere else. The flock would madly race over there. You could keep them madly racing from one spot to another for as long as you wanted. They would really put on a show for you.
August 18th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
Brett,
You mean Romney right?
August 18th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
Do you guys enjoy being treated like ducks and geese?
August 18th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
marK,
eh good point. If you go back to the first of the month, everyone was saying their “sources” were telling them it was Romney. The next week it was someone else. and so on and on.
August 18th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
#7, ill vote for that ticket, but if Hillary is in play, then AR, MO, and WV are all up for grabs. scary.
The H factor would need a populist solution on the R side.
August 18th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
I hope it’s not Hillary. This would be a worst case scenario for me and, the GOP. On the one hand, it would jack up the GOP base. On the other hand, it would explode Democratic enthusiasm coupled with record new registration. The poll numbers in critical states would ratchet up for Obama almost immediately and I don’t have a clue who McCain counters a Hillary pick with. Certainly not Pawlenty. . Really, it would take all the ” not-so-well-known” candidates off the table immediately. Clinton doesn’t put 1 RED STATE in play, she puts several, like Ohio and West Virginia and Florida and Virginia and locks up several Blue States like Michigan and Pennsylvania
I know nobody has been thinking of this seriously since the MSNBC on- line poll garnered about 75,000 votes for Hillary in first place. But the Obama campaign, coupled with the Clinton machine…well, lights are not out, I hope , but decidedly dimmer. McCain would really need a big time , heavy hitter that generates as much energy and commitment for the GOP as Hillary would do for the Dems. A prime time debate on TV between Hillary Clinton and Tim Pawlenty would be, well,… you judge. I’m biased.
August 18th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
Yup, and we just eat it up. Every little unconsequential tidbit tossed our way. Somebody, somewhere is having a good laugh at our expense.
August 18th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
#10 - why Brett? Why would we need a populist solution on the R side? So we can compete with the Democrats’ socialism?
August 18th, 2008 at 6:30 pm
#10 i know its not pretty.
We NEED AR and MO, and we greatly desire WV.
Those states have very heavy democrat populations that will vote “R” with an Obama/typcial VP ticket. But, add in Hillary, you no longer have the typical ticket. She is lved in those states. She will like tilt those states. Its the mentality of those voters.
August 18th, 2008 at 6:30 pm
#14 - that “#10″ is supposed to be “#13″ - sorry!
August 18th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
It seems to me that the only sensible choice for Obama is to pick Evan Bayh. Everyone one else has major flaws. I’m going to take off my partisan, conservative hat and look at who’s best for him.
Evan Bayh - Has strong executive and legislative experience, but also isn’t considered too much of a Washington insider, is considered more moderate then most Democrats, is from a red state (that borders swing states), that just maybe could go Democrat.
Tim Kaine - Way too inexperienced. Only has 3 years as a mediocre Governor under his belt.
Joe Biden - Totally undermines Obama’s “change” message. There’s such a thing as too much experience. He’s a boring old white guy, from a tiny state with 3 electoral votes that goes Democrat anyway.
Hillary Clinton - Would bring in Hillary supporters, but it will make him look week, like he’s caving in.
John Kerry - I hope it’s him, but Obama isn’t THAT stupid.
Barack Obama has a lot less options then John McCain. If he was smart, he’d pick Evan Bayh.
August 18th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
If Obama were to go with Biden, he would be practically taunting McCain to pick Rudy, whose presence alone would inevitably set the loose-lipped, long-winded Biden off into several “can’t help myself” embarrassing rants and gaffes. That VP debate, or bout, could be sold on Pay-Per-View, and held in the ring at Caesar’s, boxing gloves, Michael Buffer and all.
August 18th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
I think we can get some clues regarding possible VP picks judging by what the possible websites look like right now. Obviously the campaigns could have contracts in place to purchase the websites that currently look like they are owned by someone else, but since we don’t have anything else to do it might be fun to take a look at potential sites.
Here’s a link to a list of possible obama????.com websites.
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjJlN2JmYjNiZGRmZWIwODA1ZTgwOTM4OTIwMTM2MDI=
What about mccain????.com sites?
August 18th, 2008 at 6:39 pm
Obama will receive. Bump with his VP pick, but how will Clinton supports feel? Pick a woman McCain.
August 18th, 2008 at 6:39 pm
didn’t Bush and Kerry both just use their own names for their 2004 sites?
what makes us think that the URL would change?
August 18th, 2008 at 6:45 pm
I think they would use the same URL, but they would want to own and redirect sites that might be searched frequently by voters.
Imagine if a Dem owned mccainromney.com and McCain picked Romney. They would use that site to attack the ticket, and many people hoping to find johnmccain.com would end up with a bunch of liberal talking points and best.
August 18th, 2008 at 6:49 pm
Brett #4,
Yes! The only solution to a socialistic Democratic ticket is to make the Republican ticket as socialistic as possible! Fight fire with fire!
August 18th, 2008 at 6:53 pm
Actually romney’s site is for sale, it is flip.flopper.com.
August 18th, 2008 at 6:55 pm
Does everyone agree with a Clinton VP pick would be disastrous for McCain? I certainly think so, though I’d love to see someone convincing refute that to let me breath easier…
August 18th, 2008 at 6:58 pm
Try McCainRomney08.com, McCainPawlenty08.com, McCainRidge08.com, McCainPalin08.com, McCainLieberman08.com, McCainPortman08.com, McCainCantor08.com
Now, it probably doesn’t mean anything, but…
August 18th, 2008 at 7:01 pm
Aron #25,
What’s different about McCainGiuliani08.com? Is Network Solutions affiliated with McCain or Giuliani or the RNC or something?
August 18th, 2008 at 7:02 pm
If it’s Hillary, it doesn’t matter who we pick as VP.
Hillary, as the nominee, would have won this thing much easier than Obama is going to.
Good Luck.
August 18th, 2008 at 7:03 pm
Anyone who isn’t very encouraged about how we are doing right now relative to history, check out this website. On this date in 2004 Kerry was ahead of Bush 317 electoral votes to 202 with 19 tied.
Obama is only ahead of McCain 275 to 250 with 13 tied.
That means in a great year for Dems, Obama is running 44 electoral votes behind Kerry and McCain is running 28 electoral votes ahead of Bush.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/icon.html
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Aug18.html
August 18th, 2008 at 7:08 pm
#25 This was created back on 2004…although brian wolk could have been lucky just like the guy who guessed the next pope URL.
August 18th, 2008 at 7:29 pm
#22 - Nice.
August 18th, 2008 at 7:33 pm
Aron,
Thanks to John McCain, we have this, http://www.whois.net
Find out who ownes what web site.
August 18th, 2008 at 7:36 pm
#30 Kristofer read #28
August 18th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
In #28 it should read McCain is running 48 ec votes ahead of Bush, not 28. Sorry.
August 18th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
Also thanks to John McCain he have Domain privacy companies. NRO is incorrect, as you can search within Godaddy and find site owners.
McCain’s sites are registered at a net privacy company.
DomainsByProxy.com
15111 N. Hayden Rd., Ste 160, PMB 353
Scottsdale, Arizona 85260
United States
August 18th, 2008 at 7:47 pm
Registrant:
wolk, brian
8201 peters road suite 1000
plantation, FL 33324
US
Domain Name: MCCAINGIULIANI08.COM
Administrative Contact , Technical Contact :
wolk, brian
wolklaw@mindspring.com
8201 peters road suite 1000
plantation, FL 33324
US
Phone: 954-916-2780
Record expires on 01-Jul-2014
Record created on 01-Jul-2004
Database last updated on 12-Oct-2006
August 18th, 2008 at 8:06 pm
Brian Wolk, whose law office is about 40 minutes from me, had also bought the domain EdwardsRichardson.com in July 2007. While that obviously didn’t work out as planned, Wolk drew some attention in July 2005 when he presciently purchased HarrietMiers.com just 12 days before Bush nominated her to the Supreme Court.
August 18th, 2008 at 8:09 pm
Aron, that is where they filmed Caddyshack.
I will be in your area on Saturday, unless you are flooded out.
August 18th, 2008 at 9:02 pm
It might be Hillary.
August 23rd, 2008 at 12:29 pm
[...] John McCain’s Weekly Radio Address Good morning, this is John McCain, speaking to you at the end of an eventful week in the presidential campaign. All the talk today is about my opponent’s selection of his running mate. To his new running mate, my congratulations and I’ll get back to you real soon on your debating opponent. [...]