The Candidates
Schedule Watch time for O!bama, since he will most likely announce his Veep selection in the next five days.
He’s making the schedule as interesting as possible this week for those of us who watch these sorts of things like hawks. He’s in New Mexico today (home of Bill Richardson), Florida tomorrow (home of Bill Nelson, who is currently up 5 points [to a total of 5] on Intrade), and then Virginia on Wednesday (home of Tim Kaine and Mark Warner).
However, the most interesting part of the schedule is what happens after Wednesday: nothing. He’s scheduled to return home to Illinois for the rest of the week and weekend heading into convention week.
My guess is he passes on Richardson, Nelson, Kaine, and Warner in order to announce Evan Bayh as his selection from Illinois on Thursday. (As Marc Ambinder notes, Springfield would be a good place to make a major political announcement… heh.) Why Thursday? So it can get the maximum play before the convention kicks off a few days later. A Friday announcement is lost in the run-up to the weekend and a weekend announcement would ensure the worst possible coverage available, especially considering all of the Olympic finals happening on Saturday and Sunday.
So now it’s your turn: who does Obama pick, when does he announce (as in what day, pick a time for a tiebreaker), and from where does he make the announcement? Will it be Kaine in Virginia on Saturday? Nelson in Florida on Tuesday? Clinton in Illinois Friday? Throw out your best educated guess. Front page kudos for whoever picks all three correctly.
August 18th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
I think he picks Clinton tomorrow at noon.
August 18th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
DRUDGE:
PAPER: OBAMA MAY ANNOUNCE VP IN AM
Mon Aug 18 2008 17:01:04 ET
The NYT newsroom was buzzing late Monday afternoon after Obama-beat reporter Jeff Zeleny learned the Dem hopeful has finalized his choice for a running-mate and set out an elaborate roll-out to announce his decision that will begin with an early morning e-mail to supporters, perhaps as early as Tuesday.
Developing… all night long
August 18th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
Yup, sounds like it’s going to be tomorrow according to Drudge. Makes sense, changes the story from his Saddleback loss to McCain and gives a week of coverage heading into the convention.
I really have no idea who it will be. I think I’ve narrowed it down to Evan Bayh or Sam Nunn.
August 18th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
Who did Bill Nelson support in the primaries? What is the most important to issue to Florida voters? How long is he in Florida (all day; early morning; evening fundraiser)?
August 18th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
I just don’t think he picks Bayh - if only because that will cause the GOP to pick up a Senate seat if Obama were to win. I guess that Bayh would keep his seat up until election day but what then? I would think that Howard Dean would have something to say about a Bayh choice - why not go with Biden who would get replaced by another Dem or Nunn - a southern Democrat who’s already out of the Senate?
August 18th, 2008 at 4:43 pm
I say he goes with Sam Nunn tomorrow at noon time from Atlanta.
August 18th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
Biden in Springfield, Ill. on Thursday.
August 18th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
That would be funny if Obama faked everyone out and picked Bob Graham tomorrow and then went on to win Florida as a result of that.
:) Don’t forget - Graham made it to #7 on Gore’s shortlist and then to #4 on Kerry’s list!
August 18th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
Zinni.
Where, I don’t know. When, I don’t know.
My official prediction is Zinni, with Clinton retaining an outside chance. If I’m wrong here, I suspect he’ll go with a conventional choice.
August 18th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
General Anthony Zinni. Even if he doesn’t pick him, it’d be sheer genius. He has no voting record, is from a working-class family in PA, huge military (and anti-war) credentials, and at least recently was a registered Republican.
August 18th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
I see one of five options:
1) There is no announcment coming - which seems possible b/c of the lack of events in the second half of the week. A VP announcement should be followed by a tour to introduce the pick. The ideal situation would be a cross-country tour ending in Denver.
2) The announcement will be made in Virginia - indicating either a Warner, Kaine, or Webb pick, followed by additional events (see above).
3) The announcement will be made Thursday in Illinois - and followed by additional events.
4) The announcement will be made tmrw, followed by a tour of swing states, starting with VA - or the cancellation of the VA stop.
5) The announcement will be made thursday or Friday in another state - and the stop has not been announced yet.
In order of likihood: 2, 3, 1, 5, 4
August 18th, 2008 at 5:08 pm
A white male, at least 50 years old, probably not John Edwards.
August 18th, 2008 at 5:21 pm
alright, this thread is a little dead, so lets throw in another question: who is the best Veep for McCain based on the following Obama running mates?
Tim Kain -
Evan Bayh -
Wes Clark -
Chris Dodd -
Hillary Clinton -
Sam Nunn -
Jim Webb -
August 18th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
Act: Palin in all situations except against Clinton. Giuliani or Romney against Clinton.
August 18th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
I will say it is Joe Biden on Wednesday morning in Chicago
August 18th, 2008 at 5:25 pm
I really have no idea so I am going to go with Alex and Ryan’s prediction of Zinni.
I agree with Ray that in a year where no VP pick is obviously better than another it doesn’t make any sense to lose a Senate seat that you likely won’t get back for a long time.
August 18th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
There’s only one running mate who makes sense for Obama this year: Mitt Romney. He can appeal to the moderate voters who want someone with experience, and with the exception of a few statements he made during the last election, is exactly the kind of middle-of-the-road moderate Republican who could make a splash with Obama on a unity ticket.
August 18th, 2008 at 5:35 pm
Obama’s going with Colin Powell in the the ultimate “doubling down.” Seriously.
August 18th, 2008 at 5:43 pm
[...] race 4 2008 shows Obama’s swing through several states home to the most-frequently-mentioned VP [...]
August 18th, 2008 at 5:44 pm
#13
Tim Kain - Romney
Evan Bayh - Romney
Wes Clark - Romney
Chris Dodd - Romney
Hillary Clinton - Wayne Dumond
Sam Nunn - Romney
Jim Webb - Romney
August 18th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
For something completely different. did anyone notice that Politico adjusted their EV vote count today. has McCain at 274 to Obama in the 260 range. Now thats a good development
August 18th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
Not that it is definitive breaking news… but Bill Kristol said Obama’s picks are down to three people: Tim Kaine, Joe Biden, and KATHLEEN SEBELIUS
August 18th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
It will be Powell
August 18th, 2008 at 5:52 pm
“Tim Kain - Romney
Evan Bayh - Romney
Wes Clark - Romney
Chris Dodd - Romney
Hillary Clinton - Wayne Dumond
Sam Nunn - Romney
Jim Webb - Romney”
Not cool, dude on the Dumond remark.
August 18th, 2008 at 5:52 pm
interesting choices for Obama. if it is those 3 Sebelius may get the nod…placate the Clinton female voters?
August 18th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
If those are the final three (#22) then it will be Biden on Tuesday afternoon from the swing state of VA (maybe Hampton Roads or VA Beach) with Kaine, Warner, and Webb all in attendance.
August 18th, 2008 at 6:02 pm
Picking a Female other than Clinton would blow up in his face - if he ISN’T Going to pick her, he should pick someone as dissimilar to her as possible - an older white man with lots of experience, or else a male moderate from a red state.
Kaine, Warner, Dodd, or Webb would be good picks.
If he picks someone too similar to Clinton, her supporters will start to think it was personal - and they might have a point. At least if the person has little in common with her, the argument can be made that she just didn’t have what he needed.
August 18th, 2008 at 6:02 pm
I think Biden is going to be the choice since there really isn’t a lot of buzz for other candidates. I think Obama is making a mistake by picking Biden, but hey, I’ll take it. I hate to make my guess the same as Ray’s, but given his schedule, my guess is it happens in Virginia on Wednesday.
With Biden he loses the outsider reformer perception because Biden is a life-long Washington insider. Biden also will shoot his mouth off a time or two that will distract from the campaign and even though it probably won’t be bad enough to cost votes, it will cost them a few news cycles.
August 18th, 2008 at 6:08 pm
Do you discount the possibility that it is these certain characteristics of Clinton, rather than simply her identity as Hillary, that these voters are attracted to? Would you counsel McCain to pick someone as unlike Mitt Romney as possible if he’s not going to pick Romney?
Didn’t think so.
August 18th, 2008 at 6:10 pm
Alex says:
Ryan Mauro says:
McCain to Barry upon such a selection: “Hey kid, I’ll see your Zinni and raise you one Petraeus.”
August 18th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
I think it will be Bayh, I think Bayh would be his best pick of those under consideration. I would argue the absolute best pick would be Mark Warner, but he has pretty definitively withdrew his name (not that that means much.
August 18th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
The possibility of something isn’t the same as the existance of something. Sure there is a possibility - but do you have any actual examples?
August 18th, 2008 at 6:24 pm
I think I’m going to go with what DSkinner said as I thought VA was on Tuesday. I still think it will be Biden in a heavy military area of VA with the 3 key Virginia Dem’s all in attendance. So, yeah, Biden, on Wednesday from VA.
August 18th, 2008 at 6:25 pm
If bayh were the pick then don’t you think obamabayh.com would be locked up by now?
Check this out for a rundown on websites.
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjJlN2JmYjNiZGRmZWIwODA1ZTgwOTM4OTIwMTM2MDI=
It would be interesting to see possible GOP ticket sites as well.
August 18th, 2008 at 6:27 pm
MSNBC Has Biden 1, Bayh 2, Kaine 3 for Obama
For McCain it Ridge 1, Pawntley 2, Romney 3.
August 18th, 2008 at 6:28 pm
mccainromney.com is owned by some guy trying to sell it.
mccainpawlenty.com could be it, though I don’t know much about how the site would look at this point if the McCain camp owned it already.
August 18th, 2008 at 7:11 pm
I don’t know much about how the site would look at this point if the McCain camp owned it already.
DSkinner,
Perhaps something like this.
August 18th, 2008 at 7:14 pm
I love Rudy and think he would be an incredible VP candidate as well as actual VP.
However, I wonder if we would make up enough to counter the single-issue pro-lifers we will lose.
August 18th, 2008 at 7:36 pm
It’s Florida’s Nelson. I typed in this address:
http://www.obamanelson.com
and it led to the Obama site - a page entitled “who will be Obama;s v.p.? - be the first to know”….paid for by Obama for President. Check it out. Makes sense…he’s going to need help to get Florida and southern whites.
August 18th, 2008 at 7:43 pm
Rep. Joe Biden…
In Washington, DC…
On Wednesday.
August 18th, 2008 at 7:44 pm
So is this a giant game of clue?
Bill Clinton in the Oval Office with the Pipe.
Seriously, though, I say it is Bill Richardson (he is in NM now finalizing the deal) in Florida, tomorrow at 11 am Eastern Time.
August 18th, 2008 at 7:44 pm
They changed the page that it takes you to in the few minutes between my first accessing it and my post here about it! It originally took you to a full page shot of the v.p. area you now see over to the right on the page that comes up now…..making it a little less obvious, I guess!
August 18th, 2008 at 7:51 pm
Mark Levin is right. Obama and his gang are totalitarians! Once you get into their site you can’t go back! You have to close out of the internet to escape it. And take a shower.
August 18th, 2008 at 8:03 pm
He’s an expert on NASA - rode on the shuttle in 1986. Obama annonced some plan to go to the Moon yesterday. He is the biggest foe of offshore drilling. I think it’s gonna be him. Pretty good choice, actually.
August 18th, 2008 at 8:18 pm
I can’t see it being Kaine or Sebelius after the Georgia situation. And Biden is just a bit too Washington for his Change message.
If he feels safe, he picks Bayh. But I think there’s an out of the box pick waiting to be unveiled. I would have said it was Nunn until Obama mentioned him at Saddleback. So Zinni is perhaps the remaining “dark horse”.
As far as when he announces, I’m picking Thursday AM. If its Bayh it will be in Indiana (close to Chicago), if it is Zinni then maybe Virginia (all those vets)
August 18th, 2008 at 8:19 pm
I can’t see Obama/Graham winning Florida. Even if Florida hasn’t had a native on the itcket ever (I think). And if Obama gets a massive bounce in Florida, then a McCain/Crist pick locks it back in the red column.
August 18th, 2008 at 8:22 pm
I say:
Joe Biden
Wednesday morning
and… Springfield IL? I can’t guess where, so I’m going with Ambinder.
What I would do if I were Obama:
Kathleen Sebelius
Tomorrow (i.e. Tuesday) afternoon
Ohio
August 18th, 2008 at 8:48 pm
test
August 18th, 2008 at 8:49 pm
Corny Camelot Redux
vs
Washington’s Broken
August 18th, 2008 at 8:58 pm
My advice for obama would be evan bayh on the campus of ND on Thursday…For Mccain, i’d go with Mitt Romney on Labor day in Mackinaw City, Michigan…mcaain and romney than could walk across the bridge…they do that on that day, than fly to MN. Well, the labor folks might not like it, thus i’d do it on the previous friday on the campus of oakland university outside of detroit.
August 18th, 2008 at 9:43 pm
It will be:
Tim Kaine
Richmond Virginia
11:00 am Wednesday morning
August 18th, 2008 at 10:05 pm
#51, why?
August 18th, 2008 at 10:33 pm
I’ll take Evan Bayh, Thursday, somewhere in NW Indiana (I like the Notre Dame idea someone proposed above, but since that’s taken, I’ll say Gary). 2PM.
August 19th, 2008 at 12:25 am
Kaine in Virginia on Wednesday, noon eastern time.
August 19th, 2008 at 12:27 am
I just looked up and saw your prediction, Jonathon. Guess we’re thinking the same thing!
August 21st, 2008 at 12:56 pm
If you think Bill Richardson is your friend …
watch your back, for when you least expect it, this Judas is sure to stab you deep, right between your shoulder blades!!!