The Candidates
SurveyUSA Indiana Poll, conducted Aug. 16th-18th, 2008
- John McCain 50%
- Barack Obama 44%
SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Indiana adults 08/16/08 through 08/18/08. Of them, 779 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 645 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. Indiana has 11 Electoral College votes. George W. Bush carried Indiana by 21 points in 2004 and by 16 points in 2000. Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%.
This poll brings Sen. McCain to a 274-264 lead in the Electoral College per Real Clear Politics’ calculation.
Inside the numbers:
Among those who regularly attend religious services, McCain leads by 28 points, up from 16 points eight weeks ago. Among those who occasionally attend, Obama leads by 14. Among those who rarely attend, Obama leads by 23. The field period for this survey overlapped with the candidates’ participation in Pastor Rick Warren’s Saddleback Civil Forum on the Presidency, held in California 08/16/08. Among men, McCain leads by 12 points; among women, McCain and Obama tie. Eight weeks ago, Obama had led by 7 among women. Among voters younger than Barack Obama, the two candidates tie. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain leads by 21 points; among voters who are in-between the two candidates’ ages, McCain leads by 9. 12% of Republicans cross over to vote for Democrat Obama; 19% of Democrats cross over to vote for Republican McCain. Independents favor Obama by 12 points. Among those who have graduated from a 4-year college, McCain leads by 15 points; among those who have not, McCain and Obama tie. Among those with household incomes of less than $50,000, Obama leads by 11; among those with incomes above $50,000, McCain leads by 18.
August 19th, 2008 at 7:11 pm
I never believed this state was really lost to begin with. It will be closer this time, but Obama will still lose.
August 19th, 2008 at 7:15 pm
Nice to see- I also never really thought IN would be in play. I honestly think Mac will win OH too, and if he wins OH he’ll def win IN. MI and PA are the big rustbelt states that are in play IMO.
August 19th, 2008 at 7:18 pm
McCain is down in $, voter registration and media exposure. Mac is still the underdog.
August 19th, 2008 at 7:22 pm
Well we’re back to the 2000 map. Let’s see if we can expand upon it….
August 19th, 2008 at 7:27 pm
Yea i wish McCain were leading by more than 6 b/c i just don’t think Indiana will be in serious contention this year and i believe that as each month goes by Indiana will be more and more solidly for McCain.
August 19th, 2008 at 7:28 pm
It’s amazing isn’t it? After everything that has happened in the last eight years we can look at the electoral map and see the same things we saw all tose years ago when we were just getting past the Y2K hype and when the country as a whole was far more ignorant of Jihadism.
Michael Barone says this is a map changing election. And yet…
August 19th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
kick arse!
August 19th, 2008 at 7:32 pm
McCain will win IN by enough that even Bayh won’t make the difference.
August 19th, 2008 at 7:44 pm
Major blow to the liberals hoping to sway this state Blue. This state will be close enough for Obama to invest millions in it, and for McCain to invest nothing in it.
Great news!
August 19th, 2008 at 8:18 pm
This has flipped the RCP electoral count…McCain now leads 274-264.
August 19th, 2008 at 9:04 pm
This puts to rest the canard that Indiana was going blue. This had always been unbelievable.
August 19th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
Outside of your typical city dwellers and the city of Gary, there are no liberals in Indiana. Obama never had a chance of winning the Hoosier State. Bill Clinton couldn’t do it against Bob Dole, Carter couldn’t against Ford. Obama sure as hell won’t win IN against McCain.
August 19th, 2008 at 9:46 pm
Jonathan, all your previous examples prove you right. McCain will stand victorious in the Indiana plain with all the hype-ridden obama supporters retreating to the high hills.
August 19th, 2008 at 10:23 pm
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
August 19th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
It’s interesting to note that every state that has passed that National Popular vote bill in both houses is a “blue” state.
I’ll stick with the electoral vote, thanks. I think the Founding Fathers knew what they were doing (the need for the 12th Amendment notwithstanding).
August 19th, 2008 at 11:49 pm
Fantastic. Even better is that McCain is at the 50% mark already without the undecideds. This is great news!
August 20th, 2008 at 4:26 am
Right on Patrick, there is a legal purpose for the EC.
August 20th, 2008 at 4:28 am
Good …some can now stop worrying about Indiana, it will go red as expected, perhaps not by the +20′ish of years past but decisively none the less.