The Candidates
LA Times/Bloomberg General Election
- Barack Obama 45% (49%)
- John McCain 43% (37%)
Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)
- Barack Obama 48% / 35% (+13%)
- John McCain 46% / 38% (+8%)
Do you think Barack Obama has the right experience to be president, or not?
- Yes 44%
- No 48%
Do you think John McCain has the right experience to be president, or not?
- Yes 80%
- No 14%
Do you have a lot of confidence, some confidence, or no confidence in Barack Obama’s ability to deal wisely with an international crisis?
- Confidence 63%
- No Confidence 32%
Do you have a lot of confidence, some confidence, or no confidence in John McCain’s ability to deal wisely with an international crisis?
- Confidence 77%
- No Confidence 19%
Do you think Barack Obama’s patriotism is strong, or do you have questions about how patriotic Obama is?
- Patriotism Strong 55%
- Have Questions 35%
Do you think McCain’s patriotism is strong, or do you have questions about how patriotic McCain is?
- Patriotism Strong 84%
- Have Questions 9%
Who do you think would be best at achieving success in Iraq: Barack Obama or John McCain?
- John McCain 43%
- Barack Obama 36%
Who would be best at protecting the country from terrorism: Barack Obama or John McCain?
- John McCain 47%
- Barack Obama 25%
Survey of 1,248 registered voters was conducted August 15-18. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 19-23 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
Obama’s favorable rating has sunk to 48% from 59% since the last Times/Bloomberg poll in June. At the same time, his negative rating has risen to 35% from 27%.
By comparison, McCain’s ratings have hardly budged during the same period: 46% of voters have a positive feeling about him; 38% give him negative ratings.
Dominating the news during that period was the Russian invasion of Georgia. McCain has used the crisis to try to strengthen his upper hand on foreign affairs, calling for a tough U.S. posture against Russia to protect American interests in areas around the former Soviet Union.
The survey found that 63% of voters have confidence in Obama’s ability to deal wisely with an international crisis, while 77% feel that way about McCain.
The poll found that 35% of voters have questions about how patriotic Obama is; only 9% wondered how patriotic McCain is. Nearly half of voters say Obama lacks the right experience to be president, while 14% feel that way about McCain.
The poll found that McCain, long an unpopular figure among conservatives, has had more success than Obama in rallying his party’s base. Nine out of 10 Republicans favor McCain, while just under 8 in 10 Democrats support Obama.
But independents, who could wind up deciding the election, favor Obama, 47% to 36%.
August 19th, 2008 at 4:47 pm
Hehehe. I love news like this
August 19th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
“Dominating the news during that period was the Russian invasion of Georgia. McCain has used the crisis to try to strengthen his upper hand on foreign affairs, calling for a tough U.S. posture against Russia to protect American interests in areas around the former Soviet Union.”
Aron,
You still have Georgia on your mind?
August 19th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
Hip Hip Hoorayyy!!
August 19th, 2008 at 5:10 pm
When even die hard liberals like Marc Ambinder at The Atlantic concede that McCain won the summer, that’s a good sign for us.
Think about’s what happened. McCain has improved in just about every battleground state, and nationally. Obama has rarely been able to top the mid to high 40s in nat’l polls. And that’s among registered voters. I have a feeling McCain does better among likely voters. Give him a 2-3 pt bump when likely voters are added in. Then, factor in the Bradley Effect and Obama’s history of underperforming polls in key battlegrounds during the primary.
Also, all these natl polls have heavily tilted Dem ID advantages, averaging at least +10 and in some case a few pts higher. In 2004 it was even. I don’t doubt that the dems have pulled ahead, but I think it will be closer than many of the polls currently assume. That’s worth another pt or two for McCain.
All in all, McCain is in good shape.
August 19th, 2008 at 5:29 pm
Jim,
You and I are on the exact same page on the state of the race. Right now, McCain leads in the polling averages of VA, MO, CO, NV, FL and OH. Which of us honestly thought that we would be in this spot four months ago?
Cautious optimism is the name of the game now.
August 19th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
Obama’s Style
Here’s a segment worth watching between Bob Wright and Jonah Goldberg on Obama’s rhetorical style.
August 19th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
Wow, what a comeback.
August 20th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
Holy Crap Aron.
right experience to be president?
Obama;
Yes 44%
No 48%
McCain;
Yes 80%
No 14%