The Candidates
Susquehanna Pennsylvania General Election
- Barack Obama 46%
- John McCain 41%
Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)
- Barack Obama 46% / 32% (+14%)
- John McCain 44% / 34% (+10%)
Survey of 700 likely voters was conducted August 11-14. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points.
August 19th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
Not bad, I wish it was 3 points or 2 instead of 5, but 5 is very do-able.
August 19th, 2008 at 5:35 pm
Not to bad he is staying within range.
August 19th, 2008 at 6:01 pm
What matters is that it’s close. Obama can’t neglect PA, MI or MN now. THAT is key. We don’t need to actually win Pennsylvania - but forcing the Dems to defend it puts us in a much better position than where we were just a couple of months ago when it looked like we had to play an all-defense game.
August 19th, 2008 at 6:12 pm
As usual well put Adam. I doubt we take any of those, but exactly right that the name of the game is to tie up obama resources defending them.
August 19th, 2008 at 6:16 pm
PA, like MN and WI (and NJ) are all fool’s gold. We should focus on Michigan, New Hampshire, and most importantly, on keeping the (non IA/NM) Bush states in our column. If we win the Bush states — even without Iowa and New Mexico — we win the election.
August 19th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
“If we win the Bush states — even without Iowa and New Mexico — we win the election.”
Exactly - it’s where the campaign’s focus should stay, leave the teaser states to the surrogates.
August 19th, 2008 at 6:39 pm
Reminding Penn voters of Obama’s “bitter” comments won’t hurt McCain. This might be
a role for the 527s.
August 19th, 2008 at 6:39 pm
Well i’m not to sure about Iowa and New Mexico, I think these two states will go McCain on election night and as seen by the last poll number’s out of Iowa McCain is picking up steam in that state, and Tim Pawlenty would do good for Iowa b/c they know Tim Pawlenty there so he could help with the blue-collar “Sams Club” Republicans and Independent’s in that state to help McCain.
August 19th, 2008 at 6:45 pm
Bryan:
Iowa may be lost, but Pawlenty may help in some parts of Iowa, particularly in the
northwest and north-central parts of the states where he is well known. Northeast Iowa
is pretty rooted in the D column so that probably won’t budge with or without Pawlenty.
If Pawlenty brings Iowa back he will do it in the area from Sioux City to Mason City.
August 19th, 2008 at 6:52 pm
Well take this for what it’s worth but Ralph Nader has just said that everything Obama is doing right now is a headfake and that he will pick Hillary Clinton for his VP. He said that if Obama doesnt pick Clinton then he is a fool and none of the 3 names mentioned would do him any good. Let’s hope Mr. Nader get’s on the ballot in all 50 states and let’s also hope that Mr. Nader is wrong about this, i don’t want it to be Hillary at all.
The article is posted on Politico if anyone is interested in reading it.
August 19th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
i hope barry spends tens of millions just to hang on to pa.
August 19th, 2008 at 8:17 pm
This state is Obama’s unless Ridge is VP. If Ridge is VP then its still probably Obama’s, but the GOP have a chance.
Its no easier to win than NJ. NH & MI, on the other hand…
August 19th, 2008 at 8:18 pm
To focus on MI instead of PA, MN and WI? Michigan is more likely to be fool’s gold than the rest of the those states.
August 19th, 2008 at 8:27 pm
MN is not even close on the polls, IIRC, and Obama performed very strongly in the Feingold state.
MI has an unpopular Democratic government (Detroit mayor issues + Granholm) and a terrible economy. And McCain won in 2000 & did well in 2008 (campaigned there too, unlike Obama).
August 19th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
In my opinion, from easiest for McCain to win to the hardest: NH MI PA WI NJ MN
August 19th, 2008 at 10:20 pm
If Mitt, I would say of the states you mentioned: MI NH WI PA MN NJ, with NJ pretty far down on likelihood.