The Candidates
CBS News/NY Times General Election Poll, conducted Aug. 15-18, 2008
- Barack Obama 45%
- John McCain 42%
This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1,012 adults nationwide, including 869 registered voters, interviewed by telephone August 15-19, 2008. Phone numbers were dialed from RDD samples of both standard land-lines and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample and for registered voters could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher.
August 20th, 2008 at 7:37 pm
Are they using the weighted numbers listed ?
If they are that would be 20 % more Democrats than Republicans and too many independants also I would think.
Still OK being within 3%…
August 20th, 2008 at 8:12 pm
Notice that most of these recent polls showing the race tied are based on sampling of “registered” voters as opposed to “likely” voters.
August 20th, 2008 at 8:17 pm
MASS CHAOS ON 538.COM
McCain just 5 back, and has a greater shot at winning!!!
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/mccain-now-winning-small-majority-of.html
August 20th, 2008 at 8:41 pm
hey, check the fist news link at news.google.com!
remember that leg shiver that went up chris matthews leg? i think i just got that feeling! woot woot!
August 20th, 2008 at 9:03 pm
With Leaners
Obama 47%
McCain 45%
How confident are you in Barack Obama’s ability to make the right decisions about foreign policy issues?
Confident 55%
Not confident 44%
How confident are you in John McCain’s ability to make the right decisions about foreign policy issues?
Confident 66%
Not confident 33%
Do you think Barack Obama has made it clear what he would do as President, or hasn’t he done that yet?
Has 41%
Has not 55%
Do you think John McCain has made it clear what he would do as President, or hasn’t he done that yet?
Has 43%
Has not 51%
Do you think Barack Obama has prepared himself well enough for the job of President or hasn’t he?
Has prepared himself 44%
Has not prepared 49%
Do you think John McCain has prepared himself well enough for the job of President or hasn’t he?
Has prepared himself 68%
Has not prepared 25%
Do you think Barack Obama says what he believes most of the time, or does he say what he thinks people want to hear?
Yes, says what he believes 46%
No, says what people want to hear 51%
Do you think John McCain says what he believes most of the time, or does he say what he thinks people want to hear?
Yes, says what he believes 51%
No, says what people want to hear 45%
Regardless of how you intend to vote, how likely do you think it is that Barack Obama would be an effective commander-in-chief of the nation’s military?
Likely 58%
Not likely 40%
Regardless of how you intend to vote, how likely do you think it is that John McCain would be an effective commander-in-chief of the nation’s military?
Likely 80%
Not likely 19%
August 20th, 2008 at 9:22 pm
obama’s only saving grace is that polls are predicting that dem turnout will be strong for him. i dont buy it
August 20th, 2008 at 9:23 pm
I love how the NYT says McCain “narrowly” leads among independents.
He’s crushing Obama by 12 48-36. By comparison, Kerry beat Bush 51-48 with independents. McCain is demolishing him among what is usually a close group. If you compare it to the prior poll, the shift is even more impressive.
They also have Obama getting 19% of conservatives, which I think is way too high.
If the best the NYT can do for Obama is a 3 pt lead among RV, losing by 12 among I, getting below 40% among white men and white women, and among whites overall, losing working class whites big, Obama is in bad shape.
And get this, according to the NYT own poll, MORE voters think Obama has used race unfairly than McCain. Curiously, they didn’t mention taht in their report.
Correct for LV, the Bradely Effect, and the huge party ID gap, and McCain is winning this comfortably.
August 20th, 2008 at 9:34 pm
Giuliani Talks To CBS About Keynote Speech
August 20th, 2008 at 9:50 pm
Aron,
After ready that, Rudy is going to hammer Obama in his speech.
August 20th, 2008 at 10:56 pm
This poll doesn’t even count all registered voters. Of the 1,012 polled, 869 are registered, meaning like 14% won’t even vote. What a moronic waste of time and money.
August 21st, 2008 at 7:41 am
Wait, I don’t get it, are the poll numbers from registered voters or all voters?