Kristofer: I don’t recall ASU showing Kerry ahead in 2004 (though it could have happened — I don’t trust my memory that much). I do recall NAU having a couple very flaky polls.
A problem with university polls is that they often have professionalism problems (as well as bias problems in some cases). They are of extremely varying quality, and should generally be taken with more salt than is healthy.
On the other hand, sometimes they are all we have for local polling.
Kavon is absolutely right. McCain will win AZ by more than 15% without spending a dime. Obama probably really is well below 40%, but I guarantee McCain is over 50% right now.
What on earth is the reason behind so many undecideds in his home state?
They’ve seen him for years, he’s been their representative. Either they like him or they don’t. Is the 28% mainly people who don’t like McCain, but aren’t sold on Obama?
August 20th, 2008 at 10:41 am
looks like at lot AZ voters are waiting to see who the VP picks will be. 28 % is really high for undecideds.
August 20th, 2008 at 10:46 am
Kavon mentally throws this poll in garbage can.
August 20th, 2008 at 10:50 am
This is absurd.
August 20th, 2008 at 10:56 am
ASU was the only polling firm that had Kerry leading Bush in AZ during the summer of 2004. Do not worry.
http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/hourlyupdate/30752.php
August 20th, 2008 at 11:03 am
Not only that but ASU has been showing ridiculously high undecideds all along.
h++p://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?type=src&source_id=61
August 20th, 2008 at 11:14 am
“Kavon mentally throws this poll in garbage can.”
I hope you’re right. Leading by 10 isn’t too bad in a tight swing state, but only having 40% in your own home state would be disastrous.
28% undecided seems unbelievable to me too.
August 20th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
McCain is ahead by more than 10 in Arizona. It’ll be called right away for McCain.
August 20th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
Kristofer: I don’t recall ASU showing Kerry ahead in 2004 (though it could have happened — I don’t trust my memory that much). I do recall NAU having a couple very flaky polls.
A problem with university polls is that they often have professionalism problems (as well as bias problems in some cases). They are of extremely varying quality, and should generally be taken with more salt than is healthy.
On the other hand, sometimes they are all we have for local polling.
August 20th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
BobH, read my link on posting #4.
“The poll found 41 percent favored Bush, while 42 percent favored John Kerry, the presumed Democratic nominee for president.”
August 20th, 2008 at 4:10 pm
Kavon is absolutely right. McCain will win AZ by more than 15% without spending a dime. Obama probably really is well below 40%, but I guarantee McCain is over 50% right now.
August 20th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
What on earth is the reason behind so many undecideds in his home state?
They’ve seen him for years, he’s been their representative. Either they like him or they don’t. Is the 28% mainly people who don’t like McCain, but aren’t sold on Obama?