August 20, 2008
Poll Watch: Gallup Daily Tracking Update (8/20)
Gallup Daily General Election Tracking (8/20)
- Barack Obama 45%
- John McCain 43%
Survey of 2,658 registered voters was conducted August 17-19. The margin of error is ±2 percentage points.
http://race42008.com/2008/08/20/poll-watch-gallup-daily-tracking-update-820/trackback/
August 20th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Very disappointing gallup isn’t moving in the direction of all the other polls.
August 20th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
Gallup is registered voters. The other polls are likely voters. I’d say if McCain is within 1-2 in RV, he’s up by a few with LV. Don’t forget, Gallup’s last LV poll had McCain +4 at 49-45.
But still, Gallup basically shows a tie
More importantly, the state polls are all moving in McCain’s direction.
August 20th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
Yeah, who cares that Obama is way ahead in CA and NY, look at the EC vote.
August 20th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
Yeah. Gallup holding steady is an indicator of McCain being ahead and staying there, for the moment. Registered voters is the DUMBEST way to poll.
August 20th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
A virtual tie–or for the polls to be this tight this early–is not good news for THE ONE on the eve of his own convention. Oh, wait, I mean, on the eve of the Clinton’s one convention since THE ONE conceded two prime-time nights to the troubled couple for no good reason.
August 20th, 2008 at 3:14 pm
Gallup is about in line with the other polls. Obama has a very small lead nationally, but he trails in several key states: Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia. McCain could win the electoral college vote, but lose the popular vote due to Obama racking up huge margins in big, liberal cities and not getting blown out as bad in Southern states due to increased black vote turnout.
The Democrats picked a nominee who is weak in the states that matter and strong in the states that don’t matter. Hillary Clinton was right about questioning whether Obama can win. Clinton would be ahead of McCain by more than 5 points right now if she were the nominee.
August 20th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
Who cares. We need to get over 270, if we do, we win!
August 20th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
Or look at the EU vote, where the Oba-Messiah is light years ahead.
Probably. And she would have developed a clear, coherent message and have effectively countered Sen. McCain’s attempts to define her etc. Or more likely her campaign would have continued to implode from within. Have you read those Clinton campaign internal emails lately made public?
August 20th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
http://www.kcbs.com/Gov–May-Have-to-Skip-Convention/2822091
Schwarzy turns down speaking slot at Convention!
August 20th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
9 - that’s actually GREAT NEWS!!! Keep Arnold in CA is fine by me.
Here’s to the California legislature not getting the budget done in time! Woo hoo!
August 20th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
Just heard Hannity say that he just got word that another natl poll released tonight will have McCain ahead.
I heard that there will be an NBC/WSJ poll tonight.
If McCain takes the lead in the NBC poll, that means Obama is taking on so much water he should invite Leo and Kate to appear in Denver.
The best thing about that would be that NBC shows like Hardball and Countdown will HAVE to report on it.
I wonder if the Marks Halperin and Ambinder will continue to ignore every poll that shows McCain ahead?
August 20th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
#8. Clinton’s inability to run a coherent campaign despite her
political connections, fundraising and well known ferocity was
a surprise to many. No doubt, more electable Dem candidates
stayed out or never caught fire with those early party insiders
or major donors. While we could speculate how a Hillary might have
played in the General election, the fact is she couldnt convert
that overwhelming advantage in the primaries and lost out to someone
that bothered to read how primaries and caucuses are actually won
and lost, cultivated a huge donor base of small amounts and spent
that money wisely.
August 20th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
BTW,
We’ll know if Obama and the MSM are truly scared if we start hearing about the Keating 5 any time soon. If that gets brought up, it means Obama and the MSM are genuinely afraid of losing. It’s the trump card and the canary in the coal mine, so to speak.
If that NBC/WSJ poll is bad for Obama, watch out.
The sphincters of those Super Delegates must be getting awfully tight.
And they still have their 2 time winners the Clintons to fall back on.
I can imagine Dean and Pelosi going to Obama: “Business, Barack, nothing personal”
August 20th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
WSJ poll will be talked about on the 6:30PM EST news cast and full release on this site at 11:00PM. Some of the poll numbers have been released.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/08/20/wsjnbc-news-poll-mccain-running-a-negative-campaign/
August 20th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
jim, very nice insights, good stuff
August 20th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
just heard some clips of Obama speaking…boy, he is getting a little testy…
August 20th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
#14. This has become the media’s rationale for McCain’s rise and Obama’s fall: McCain has gone negative; Obama, for whatever reason, has yet to hit back etc., etc. You should expect to hear this repeated again and again. Does anyone really care? If you favour McCain, this is good news. If you don’t, it’s unfair. Moral: this argument will not change anyone’s mind one way or the other.
OTOH you can expect the networks to trot out so-called independent nobodies or self-described “die-hard Republicans” that no one has ever heard of who will swear up and down that they now support Obama because McCain went negative. Yeahright.
August 20th, 2008 at 4:30 pm
I’ll say. Did you hear Sen Obama say that he wouldn’t “take any guff” from McCain? (Just what is guff, and who talks that way?) Did you hear him demand that McCain “acknowledge” his virtue and patriotism? Just why does Obama need his opponent to acknowledge anything?
The man seems smaller every day. He’s shrinking like a cartoon balloon with a massive leak.
August 20th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
Guff!! lol
Does Obama think he just stepped off the set of some John Wayne movie?
McCain should respond by saying “Listen, pilgrim, I don’t like the cut of your jib”
Dotan, perhaps. I think it’s more likely taht we’ll start seeing stuff about how even in the 21st century the stain of racism and bigotry is alive and well. How America is just not ready for a black president. How it’s all these bigots and racist white folks out there who are gravitating towards McCain. The race card was always their trump. McCain was brilliant to take it off the table a few weeks ago.
August 20th, 2008 at 4:47 pm
That WSJ post is so slanted…
Since when is much of anything that polls less than 30% worthy of a screaming headline, much less a couple of suspenseful paragraphs?
Pathetic journalism. Oh well - nothing new here…
… six-to-one margin …
… three in 10 voters …
At least their creative spin on the poll data is worth a good laugh
August 20th, 2008 at 4:47 pm
Yes. I concede your point without hedge or qualification. This will be their master narrative should Obama continue to underperform.
August 20th, 2008 at 5:40 pm
Jim,
“We’ll know if Obama and the MSM are truly scared if we start hearing about the Keating 5 any time soon. If that gets brought up, it means Obama and the MSM are genuinely afraid of losing. It’s the trump card and the canary in the coal mine, so to speak.”
I think you are right about that.
Although the media may keep it “under wraps” until mid-October, sooner if Obama is truly imploding. But if it’s a tight race, they will wait until closer to the end to “reveal” a 20 year old story.
August 20th, 2008 at 5:42 pm
I hope the MSM keeps citing racism for Obama’s inability to win the landslide they think he deserves. I think that crap will backfire on Obama. I know a lot of white folks are sick and tired of liberals trying to cow them with the “racist” smear. I think every time the media trots it out, people will assume that is what Obama thinks, and then he’s just another race hustler like Jackson or Sharpton.
August 20th, 2008 at 7:05 pm
#13: Even if Obama is imploding, dont expect a super delegate change
of heart at the convention. It would split the party, guarentee a
McCain victory and probably do lasting damage. (Try and convince Blacks
to come back to the party that booted a black nominee that played by the
primary rules and won.
No, for better or worse, Barack gets the nod. If he wins, great…if
not, there is no lasting party damage. When 2012 rolls around, the dems
will probably rally around Warner. But the key is no lasting damage to
any of the party constituencies, which even democrat leadership “gets”.