The Candidates
Yes, it’s Zogby, but this is a shot of great news on this Wednesday morning!
Zogby National General Election
- McCain - 46% (40)
- Obama - 41% (47)
Who would be the best manager of the economy?
- McCain - 49%
- Obama - 40%
Support Among Own Party
- McCain - supported by 81% of Republicans
- Obama - supported by 74% of Democrats
With third-party Candidates
- McCain - 44%
- Obama - 39%
- Barr - 3%
- Nader - 2%
Survey was conducted August 14-17 of 1,089 likely voters and has a 3% MoE.
August 20th, 2008 at 8:19 am
FWIW, Battleground Poll also shows McCain ahead by 1 point.
August 20th, 2008 at 8:22 am
and Gallup, the poll that is posted on this site every day shows Obama up by 1%.
conclusion: The race is close.
ps: There are way too many Matts on this site. I’m switching to Matthew.
August 20th, 2008 at 8:22 am
‘Obama’s support among voters between the ages of 18 and 29, which had been one of his strengths, slipped 12 percentage points to 52%’
oooh, the youts of america! they love Obama! but they barely support Obama…..is that less than the percentage than that appealing John Kerry got?
August 20th, 2008 at 8:25 am
BTW isn’t it McCain 46- Obama 41?
August 20th, 2008 at 8:27 am
Hmmmm… 7:00 is apparently too early for math for me.
August 20th, 2008 at 8:28 am
Laurent (#3), you’re right — Kerry won the 18-29 demographic by a count of 54-45 in 2004.
Heh.
August 20th, 2008 at 8:30 am
The electoral college, BTW, looks almost exactly like - Bush Gore 2000….at this point Obama seems to flip NH blue from that map, that’s it.
August 20th, 2008 at 8:31 am
One has to assume that Obama’s internal polling is showing the same thing. That’s why he is trying to hit back aggressively now.
August 20th, 2008 at 8:37 am
I expect we’ll start seeing McCain pull ahead more often now that more pollsters are bothering to screen for Likely Voters.
August 20th, 2008 at 8:54 am
I think this causes Pawlenty to have the upper hand on the nomination. If McCain appears to be in the lead, he may choose the one perceived to be the ‘do no harm’ candidate.
August 20th, 2008 at 9:01 am
Illinoisguy:
Yes and no, do not harm candidates are already better when you have the upper hand, but the VP choice could now partially hinge on who Mr. Obama chooses. Mr. Romney could be a better choice under some senarios and Mr. Pawlenty for others and I suppose, there is always the possibility of wildcard versus wildcard.
August 20th, 2008 at 9:33 am
I agree Ohio Joe. I think McCain is waiting o see what Obama does and he has already made up his mind depending on Obama’s choice.
August 20th, 2008 at 9:41 am
Don’t get too excited it Zogby, that said you can tell from how Obama has been acting the last few days he’s not having good news whispered into his ears.
August 20th, 2008 at 9:42 am
#12, you are correct. He is waiting.
August 20th, 2008 at 9:43 am
Good point KnightHawk, Mr. Zogby needs to be taken with a grain of salt.
August 20th, 2008 at 9:49 am
Forget about the fact that youth voters are moving away from Obama, how about the fact that they never show up on election day, and many Presidential candidates have lost by wide margin’s basing their hopes on young voters turning out.
August 20th, 2008 at 10:03 am
And Zogby had Romney up +8 before the California primary. Just sayin……….
August 20th, 2008 at 10:16 am
Zogby sucks. Sorry.
August 20th, 2008 at 10:27 am
Sean M 17 - That’s not a good example of zogby being off, because the exit polls showed the same thing, that they preferred Romney over McCain by 8%, but voted exactly the opposite, citing electability as the reason.
August 20th, 2008 at 10:30 am
Whether or not it is the very best example, few would disagree that Zogby has not done the best job in the last 6 years and prior to that, they got lucky.
August 20th, 2008 at 10:30 am
It’s sort of strange that McCain is considering Pawlenty even though he opposed the surge.
From what I can see, Pawlenty’s reluctance to support the surge seems to fit with his political make-up. Jason Lewis said he goes along to get along.
Does anyone have evidence that Pawlenty has political courage? He comes across as having a pretty weak personality. He doesn’t do well in interviews, either. He just doesn’t seem like a very strong candidate, or one I would want as the next leader of the party.
August 20th, 2008 at 10:39 am
Martha:
With respect, he was not the only GOP person to oppose the surge or at least some aspect of the War. To be sure, Mr. Pawlenty was in the wrong, but unfortunately, he has company.
August 20th, 2008 at 10:40 am
Let’s hope that Obama doesn’t get too far behind until after the Dems convention. I don’t want to see a dump Obama movement take place at the convention. And don’t laugh it could happen. If enough of the super delegates get nervous, they could change their minds and it could be Hillary vs McCain.
Now wouldn’t that be a kick in the head?
August 20th, 2008 at 10:44 am
True, it may be unwise to rock a winning boat, but with Mrs. Clinton on top, we win a lot of western states all of a sudden.
August 20th, 2008 at 10:47 am
But we lose Ohio for certain. Remember she appeals quite a bit more to blue collar workers than McCain does. That is the advantage McCain has over Obama. Blue collar workers think Obama is arrogant and elitist.
August 20th, 2008 at 11:06 am
No, we do not lose it for certain, but it could be a little more difficult. Mrs. Clinton may be popular among Ohio’s Blue Collars, but among Independents, that is a different story.
August 20th, 2008 at 11:11 am
We need Obama to choose his VP before he peaks or he might pick Clinton.
#23, #24
“Let’s hope that Obama doesn’t get too far behind until after the Dems convention. I don’t want to see a dump Obama movement take place at the convention. And don’t laugh it could happen. If enough of the super delegates get nervous, they could change their minds and it could be Hillary vs McCain.”
Clinton was always the better candidate, however changing from the presumptive nominee to Clinton would alienate too many in the Dem party and she most likely would lose. They should have picked her originally.
August 20th, 2008 at 11:41 am
I agree #23, its not out of the realm of possibilities….
August 20th, 2008 at 11:55 am
Hobie:
Interesting point. I am well aware of PUMA, undecided women voters and the Dream Team. However, the only person that I know who will switch her vote from non-voting to voting for Mr. Obama is an Angry Old White Woman who is counting on Mr. Obama being killed in office so that she can get her beloved Hillary Care.
August 20th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
This makes it more likely it’s Hillary as VP, which makes it very difficult to win.
Obama/anyone else is very possible we win. Obama/Clinton not so much.
The other big # from this poll is that McCain leads Obama on the economy by 49-40. So much for needing Romney to help him in that area.
And for all those doubting Zogby, he was dead on in the primaries in OH, TX, PA and some other big states
August 20th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
[...] A couple of national polls are showing a McCain lead for the first as well. George Washington University Battleground: McCain 47%, Obama 46% Zogby: McCain 46%, Obama 41% [...]