The Candidates
Rasmussen New Hampshire General Election
- Barack Obama 43% (47%)
- John McCain 42% (41%)
With Leaners
- Barack Obama 47% (49%)
- John McCain 46% (45%)
Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)
- John McCain 57% / 40% (+17%)
- Barack Obama 55% / 43% (+12%)
Survey of 700 likely voters was conducted August 18. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 23 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
The latest numbers show support growing for McCain from those in his party. He now earns the vote from 87% of GOP voters, up from 78% a month ago. Though Obama still has a 42% to 34% lead among unaffiliated voters, support for the Democrat is down from 50% last month. He also has a 46% to 38% lead among women. Among men in New Hampshire, McCain has a 46% to 40% edge.
While Obama has a solid lead among younger voters, the race is close among voters between the ages of 30 and 64. McCain has a dominant lead among voters age 65 and older.
August 20th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
McCain owns NH
He’ll win it in November.
August 20th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
Incredibly great news for today. Though the underdog image has always seemed to play to McCain’s advantage, it is very reassuring to see him playing so well both state-by-state and nationally this early in the game. Winning New Hampshire in the general would be the cherry on top of an already heroic comeback.
August 20th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
Lol…what potential VP could have some additional influence in NH? I’ll give you a clue. this Real Outsider Might Nudge Extra Yale estates, NH residents to vote McCain!
August 20th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
Yah honestly I did have it lean blue back in June with the polls back then but I quickly changed it to a toss up. This is a state that always has McCain down, but in the end, he always get’s it done.
Take Iowa Obama, we’ll take New Hampshire from you!
August 20th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
Remember how Obama underperformed here in the primaries. A documented Bradley effect in place?
If so that means McCain is actually ahead in NH.
August 20th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
Someone said “Iowa picks politic but New Hampshire picks Presidents” or something like that.
August 20th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
Here’s a look at the updated Argo Electoral Map.
August 20th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
Falz #6,
I believe it’s, “Iowa picks corn, New Hampshire picks Presidents.”
August 20th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
Thanks Kavon.
August 20th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
Question: Is McCain’s recent success in the polls based on increasing numbers of voters in swing states favoring him, or his consolidation of votes in red states?
August 20th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
McCain’s recent success factors:
- Georgia
- Defining Obama’s shallowness w/ the Celebrity meme
- Continuing pain at the pump
- Saddleback trounce
- We’re 10 weeks out from the election… some folks are ‘just now’ starting to pay attention if you can believe it… many more folks won’t pay attention until after they vote…
August 20th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
Big S, nearly all of the state polls released recently have shown some movement toward McCain.
August 20th, 2008 at 5:13 pm
Moreover, the movement has been both consolidating his party and gaining among independents.
August 20th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
Big S, this is only my judgement, by I believe he is picking up across the board. But I have nothing to back that up.
August 20th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
Aron, I agree with every state on your map as of today — including lean and strong. The only exception is that I think NJ is deep blue. Good analysis.
August 20th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
Obama brings a knife to a gun fight, good read:
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/08/obama_brings_a_knife_to_a_gunf.html
August 20th, 2008 at 5:29 pm
#16, Obama has never faced a credible conservative opponent. It’s natural that he’d not know what he’s doing.
August 20th, 2008 at 5:30 pm
Terry -
What is funny about Obama trying to taint McCain by talking up Ralph Reed is that in GA, all this will do is embolden the conservatives. Despite Reed’s challenges, he is quite revered in GA’s conservative circles privately - not so much publically.
This will more than backfire. And why is Obama wasting his money in GA anyway? If not just to keep up appearances - surely someone has whispered in his ear that the South isn’t going his way
August 20th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
“Obama has never faced a credible conservative opponent.”
Actually, he’s never faced a credible opponent at all (or not for long). He used petition challenges to knock out his primary opponents in his first state senate race, and then cruised from there.
When he ran for US Senate, he would have lost in the primary, but his main opponent was eliminated in a sex scandal. Then his Republican opponent — same thing. Leaving him facing Alan Keyes (even typing that name makes me want to puke).
August 20th, 2008 at 6:09 pm
On #19. What about Hillary?
August 20th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
Ajay: Good point — I wasn’t thinking.
August 20th, 2008 at 7:28 pm
Even Mrs. Clinton turned out to be not a strong opponent.
August 20th, 2008 at 8:56 pm
#10 Seems like movement in the swing states. Probably a combination of the consolidation of McCain’s base and some loss of support among independents for Obama.
#18, Well, from what I read, they’re trying to make permanent inroads for the dem. party in red states. They probably also what to try to make McCain spend more in red states, I’d imagine. I don’t know how effective that is for this election. Who knows. Also, if that’s the ad I’m thinking of, I don’t believe it was put out by Obama, but by some other person. Correct me if I’m wrong.
The polls are looking great. McCain’s had a very solid last few weeks. Obama’s bounces haven’t held and have been counteracted effectively. We need to keep this up and turn out the vote, as the GOTV is where Obama’s big advantage seems to be.