The Candidates
The New York Sun is reporting:
With social conservatives up in arms over the possibility that Senator McCain may tap a supporter of abortion rights, Senator Lieberman, as his running mate, one staunch McCain ally and abortion opponent says the Connecticut lawmaker is the perfect choice.
Rep. Peter King, a Long Island Republican, said social conservatives are making a mistake by opposing Mr. Lieberman, arguing that the 2004 Democratic vice presidential nominee could help deliver Mr. McCain the election in November. While ardent abortion foes have said the “pro-life” principle is too important to give up for the sake of political pragmatism, Mr. King turned the argument on its head, saying that electing an anti-abortion president in Mr. McCain outweighs the risk of a more conservative vice presidential pick that would ultimately lose to Senator Obama in November.
“They would be the ones morally responsible for electing a pro-choice president,” Mr. King said of Mr. Lieberman’s right-wing critics in an interview with The New York Sun yesterday.
Mr. McCain drew the ire of opponents of legalized abortion when he told the Weekly Standard last week that the support of abortion rights would not necessarily disqualify a former Pennsylvania governor, Tom Ridge, as a prospective running mate. And reports have spread this week that he also is considering Mr. Lieberman.
The news has led to angry warnings from social conservatives, and the talk radio host Rush Limbaugh said Mr. McCain would “destroy the Republican Party.”
“I understand the sincerity but I really believe it’s misguided, and I’m saying that as a person who has a 100% pro-life voting record,” Mr. King said.
August 21st, 2008 at 12:53 am
“Mr. King turned the argument on its head, saying that electing an anti-abortion president in Mr. McCain outweighs the risk of a more conservative vice presidential pick that would ultimately lose to Senator Obama in November”
Is he saying that the VP will mean the difference between winning & losing? Since when has that been the case? Its news to me…
August 21st, 2008 at 1:07 am
Upon further reflection, I now agree with Alex, Metro and Aron.
McCain is picking a pro-choice VP. Every day I watch video of McCain talking about his pro-life credentials……this started on the weekend.
Something is up. Lieberman or Ridge. And who was a big Rudy backer? Congressman King.
August 21st, 2008 at 1:09 am
I like Lieberman as a person and I respect him for taking a strong principled stand in the face of certain and absolute rejection within his own party, but I fail to see any redeeming qualities he offers a GOP ticket or administration other than his stance on Security/War on Terror. He is a mainstream liberal (not even a moderate) on every single social issue (with the possible exception of his advocacy for more parental responsibility). No one has yet given me a logical reason, aside from “he appeals to moderates and Democrats” (which I don’t believe), as to why the GOP should even remotely consider Lieberman for VP. In other words, on January 21, 2009, why should I still like VP Joe Lieberman?
Unless, maybe this is some sort of conspiracy whereby Lieberman becomes VP, than resigns after the election to become SecState and McCain nominates an actual conservative for VP. Hmmmmmmmm.
August 21st, 2008 at 1:11 am
I think McCain is using playing this Pro-choice stuff up so when he chooses Romney it will satisfy the social conservtives.
August 21st, 2008 at 1:11 am
#3, the pro-choicer is not Lieberman that McCain wants to select.
Ridge was a head-fake and so is Lieberman.
August 21st, 2008 at 1:13 am
JayPe,
What King is saying is that single-issue pro-lifers who threaten to hand the election to the pro-choice Democrat by staying home will be morally responsible for Obama’s victory, and his subsequent nominations of liberal activist judges who could put the overturn of Roe permanently out of reach.
August 21st, 2008 at 1:14 am
Hmm…
I can think of one pro choice guy out there who’s neither Ridge, Lieberman, or Rudy.
He’s a genuine GOP star who has the highest poll #s of any political figure in the country
He’s donated the max to McCain and is supposedly good friends with him
His selection as VP would guarantee that McCain wins, and everyone in the media would know it
Could it be?
August 21st, 2008 at 1:15 am
Kristopher. . . Your theory makes sense, I suppose, but if true it’s a bonehead way for McCain to trick conservatives into accepting his choice for VP. I mean, he floats the possibility of a pro-choice VP, socons flip out, he tells everyone to “just relax and chill out, I’m still pro-life” . . .and then he flips them all the bird and says “haha tricked ya, I really did pick a pro-choice VP after all!” Not exactly a winning strategy in my book.
August 21st, 2008 at 1:16 am
Kristofer, are you picking Rudy? Hard if he’s just been given the keynote role…
August 21st, 2008 at 1:16 am
7. . . If you mean Powell. . .do we want a GOP ticket with a combined age of 143 years old?
August 21st, 2008 at 1:17 am
Jim, are you thinking Colin Powell per chance? I can’t see if happening, although it would be a barn-burner if he did. Colin wouldn’t run with the relentless negativeity that a VP is supposed to do.
August 21st, 2008 at 1:18 am
Aron (#6), I think the socons would argue that they cannot continue to be courted by a simple “the other side is worse” argument. They want candidates to uphold their values consistently, not ‘just enough to win their votes’.
August 21st, 2008 at 1:18 am
#8, that is not it. McCain is going to select Rudy.
What would be stupid, is for McCain to announce this without any warning.
So how does he do it. Spread rumors he is picking a pro-choice liberal….then McCain selects a pro-choice conservative instead, meanwhile…..people are not surprised he selected a pro-choicer, because they received warning…….sort-of.
Rudy, Ridge, Graham, and now King….they are all coordinating this. How much more obvious can it be!
August 21st, 2008 at 1:20 am
#9, the keynote role is going to be for a young GOP star. Either Palin or Jindal.
August 21st, 2008 at 1:20 am
Alaska Jake,
Once McCain and Powell blow Obama out of the water, I don’t care how old they are
August 21st, 2008 at 1:21 am
McCain/Rudy has 5 marriages between them. McCain says his biggest failure was his first marriage, then picks a guy who did it twice (once in a press conference).
That is hardly inspiring, even if he’s more conservative than one-wife devout Jew Lieberman.
August 21st, 2008 at 1:21 am
It wont be a pro choice president.
August 21st, 2008 at 1:21 am
sorry vp
August 21st, 2008 at 1:25 am
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/20/AR2008082003272.html?hpid=topnews
Rudy is going to be keynoting the Tuesday night. The GOP’s Mark Warner. That makes it highly unlikely he’ll be the VP pick.
August 21st, 2008 at 1:25 am
#16, why is McCain all of us sudden making his pro-life views front and center? He is talking about it every day now, more than national security.
Rudy would be the least offensive pick, as he had some evangelical support, plus Rudy’s committed to Conservative judges.
JayPe, take a step back and look at what is going on. Start last Thursday with Rudge, then Saddleback, then Lieberman, the confirmed polling of a “pro-choice” VP, Graham calling Conservative supporters, McCain’s only statement (from campaign) being, “there will be no more talk of a pro-choice VP”, not that they are going to only select a pro-life VP. The pro-life groups have formed 527’s and are going after Obama, and look at this infanticide issue.
August 21st, 2008 at 1:27 am
Interesting quote from that article:
Giuliani quickly gave antiabortion activists in the party something to grouse about. Asked in a conference call with reporters whether Sen. John McCain, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, could choose a running mate who supports abortion rights, Giuliani said yes.
He said he knew McCain’s first criterion would be selecting a person “who could immediately be president of the United States.” He added: “If that person happens to be, among other things, pro-choice, the party will support that.”
–> They won’t lie down quietly in front of the pro-choice bus!
August 21st, 2008 at 1:27 am
Kristofer, I agree with your observation that he is trying to clear the way for a pro-choice VP. But I don’t think its Rudy.
August 21st, 2008 at 1:28 am
I would be willing to bet the farm it isn’t Rudy.
August 21st, 2008 at 1:30 am
15. . . Don’t get me wrong. . .I would love Powell to be VP. I just think it emphasizes the age issue more than anything else ever could, and age is one of McCain’s two biggest hurdles (the other being “Bush 3″).
August 21st, 2008 at 1:32 am
The best pro-choice VP choice would be the following:
- bipartisan accomplishments
- executive experience
- star power
- popular in his home state
- able to deliver his state, and with it the election
Unfortunately, he’s not available.
August 21st, 2008 at 1:32 am
More recent events;
- Huckabee stated that he would support a pro-choice VP.
- Rudy will not back down on the pro-choice VP issue.
- The convention speakers are lined with pro-life speakers
- McCain refuses to promise a pro-life VP
- During all this pro-choice VP talk……McCain poll numbers are still doing well.
August 21st, 2008 at 1:35 am
25. . . Actually Rudy meets the first 4 qualifications, and perhaps the 5th as well.
August 21st, 2008 at 1:36 am
Kristofer, the poll numbers are driven by Georgia & Obama’s holiday (& maybe drilling too).
I think a pro-choice VP is looking surprisingly likely, but I still don’t think its Rudy.
August 21st, 2008 at 1:37 am
Alaska, interesting thought, but I think NY is more liberal & Obama leaning than CA.
Not that I’ve seen any polling on that.
August 21st, 2008 at 1:44 am
Kristofer,
Don’t forget this quote from McCain spokesman Brian Rogers, who said earlier today…well, it’s now yesterday:
August 21st, 2008 at 1:46 am
JayPe,
Here’s what Rudy said during yesterday’s conference call, when asked whether McCain could pick a pro-choice vice presidential nominee:
August 21st, 2008 at 1:50 am
Aron, we have seen this act before.
Lieberman, Ridge and Graham were the ones that pushed the timetables issue on Romney. Ridge actually drove reporters from the McCain event (where McCain first used this attack line) in Florida to the Romney event, to surprise Romney with the question, before Romney staff knew about what McCain said.
Look at who was doing the polling of key conservative supporters……..Lindsey Graham.
August 21st, 2008 at 1:58 am
I suspect McCain is satisfied with how today’s conference call went…
August 21st, 2008 at 4:08 am
Aron, wow, if McCain isn’t at least considering a pro-choice vp, that conference call was way off message!
August 21st, 2008 at 6:04 am
There is no way he picks a pro abortion running mate. Ridge is being used. Da ja vu from 2000 when Bushie used him.
August 21st, 2008 at 6:10 am
Whatever. Not going to happen.
August 21st, 2008 at 6:10 am
Simple,
As Representative King ( long Island ) muses, I think it would be ” The choice that would cost McCain the Presidency.” It might get John 3-4 points more in N.Y. and Connecticut so he would still lose by 8-10 points, but it would cost him 6-8 states and maybe 80 EV. A truly insane pick. If he does this, he really does need some serious medication.
August 21st, 2008 at 6:13 am
I hope McCain doesn’t pick a pro-choicer. He’s pulled even and he isn’t going to get very much more out of the center no matter what. It’s beyond foolish to piss support away at this point. And I don’t care about a candidate’s position on abortion either way if we’re talking about the first trimester - so I have no dog in this fight.
If McCain picks a pro-choicer he will lose.
August 21st, 2008 at 6:41 am
I think the McCain camp know they will lose if they hack off the base Mr. King is an interesting character and it is difficult to tell if he is just get attention.
August 21st, 2008 at 6:46 am
I still don’t think a pro-choice VP is at all likely, and certainly not Lieberman. As Yuval Levin notes, the biggest problem with nominating Lieberman is that the convention is so near; Mr. Maverick simply won’t be able to strongarm all of those fiercely pro-life delegates in two days time. Sure, if he had a month to work his magic, and they had some time to cool off, maybe the situation would be workable. But, as it is, if McCain selects Lieberman on the 29th, the convention will be a firestorm. And it will do two things; it will remind independents who like Lieberman, how little they have in common with the Republican Party. And it’ll incite evangelicals watching at home. It’s just a terrible idea. This is the most masterful headfake yet, though for what purpose I’m not sure. I’m inclined to believe they’re setting us up for a Romney selection.
August 21st, 2008 at 6:52 am
It’s hard to believe that anyone seriously thinks Mccain would pick a Pro-Choice VP. It is so incredulous that it is hard to even discuss.
Aside from being Pro-Choice, Lieberman’s social views are to the LEFT of Bayh’s. I cannot imagine a more self destructive pick, for the GOP at this moment, and even John McCain, in his most maverick moment, cannot have lost the lucidity of this irrationality. To add to this absurdity, McCain has just committed himself and his policies to a Pro-Life path before millions of GOP and independent voters. To spit in their face would be bad enough. To be perceived as a ” lier ” or, perhaps even worse, to be perceived as a Bill Clinton parser of words, would be even worse.
Mccain’s possible presidency is in his hands at this moment. He, more than anyone, can destroy that possibility before it even get’s off the ground.
August 21st, 2008 at 7:15 am
McCain has said that the choice will also be based on ability. Rudy and Mitt are the best in terms of executive ability and have no peers. Ridge and Colin Powell are pretty good too in that area but they are tier two talent.
I think it comes down to Rudy, Mitt, and an outside chance of Ridge or Colin Powell.
August 21st, 2008 at 7:24 am
New Minnesota poll. http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/08/20/prezpoll/
McCain trails by 10. According to the pollster, when Pawlenty is added to McCain’s ticket, 1 in 4 undecideds and Obama supporters shift to McCain. “We were quite impressed by the impact that Gov. Pawlenty has on McCain’s chances,” he said. “Our analysis suggests that the McCain ticket jumps by 13 points by adding Gov. Pawlenty to the ticket. That is quite an impact.”
13 points. That’s alot folks. So maybe, as I’ve been arguing all along, those “more likely” or “less likely” questions aren’t so helpful after all. I’m at work, so I’d appreciate it if someone could post this on the front page.
August 21st, 2008 at 7:32 am
As everyone should know by now I predicted Sebelius & Pawlenty as the VP noms 4 months ago.
But the late mail I’m getting is that we could be set for a pretty boy Mittens v Evan contest. Developing …..
The only two real outsiders that might be picked are Gephardt and Cohen.
August 21st, 2008 at 7:35 am
They might well be right. This could just be one giant head-fake to the Evangelicals to say without actually saying it, “Now that you’ve seen what could have happened, just be glad it didn’t.”
August 21st, 2008 at 7:43 am
Wow. It really, really might be Rudy.
August 21st, 2008 at 7:46 am
First off, McCain has a 31.8% chance of dieing while in office. You must add to that the fact that he has some chance of becoming dysfunctional and unable to continue in office. So, any pro-choice candidate has that opportunity to assume the office.
Secondly, the Congressman’s argument would only hold water if Ridge actually made McCain more electable. I would argue that this is not the case. McCain is slightly right of center and is doing very, very well amongst independent voters already. My belief is that he would lose a lot more social conservatives who would either sit home, or vote for someone else in protest than he would gain from independents.
Thirdly, McCain’s statements yesterday in Los Cruces said that the VP candidate would SHARE his values, not SUPPORT them. There is a huge difference. Also. while answering Laura Ingraham’s questions about the VP selection, he said had ‘a lot of work to do to shore up the base’. He’s smart enough to know that choosing a pro-choice VP would not do that.
August 21st, 2008 at 8:09 am
First off, McCain has a 31.8% chance of dieing while in office.
Oh, really, now.
August 21st, 2008 at 8:21 am
Want to see the quickest way to absolutely tear the GOP apart and rip it to shreds? Watch McCain pick Lieberman as Veep. This would rank as one of the most horrendous political decisions in recent history and would serve to do nothing but enlarge the schisms the party is already trying to mend.
A move like this could set the Republican Party back incredibly far in terms of organization, volunteers, voter commitment and passion, and sheer numbers for years to come as we face inter-party fighting, squabbles, and schisms the likes of which we’ve never seen.
And with McCain and Lieberman running the party and that great lineup of folks like Arnold, Rudy, Lingle, and Ridge headlining the RNC, watch conservatives find another home. After all, just as Reagan said, we are conservatives before we are Republicans. And if the GOP ceases to be the best available vehicle to accomplish the conservative message, so be it.
Luckily, none of this will come to pass because the RNC has a rule that says the Vice Presidential pick must have been a registered Republican for at least 60 days prior to becoming a VP candidate. Fancy that - a Republican Vice President actually having to be a Republican. Who comes up with this stuff?
August 21st, 2008 at 8:24 am
And with McCain and Lieberman running the party and that great lineup of folks like Arnold, Rudy, Lingle, and Ridge headlining the RNC, watch conservatives find another home.
I can understand Arnold, but what is your problem with Rudy and Ridge?
August 21st, 2008 at 8:27 am
I looked at the poll you cited Matthew. Being 10% down doesn’t look good. Pawlenty adding that much to the ticket just doesn’t square with the ‘more likely’/'less likely’ polling. But, I won’t argue with you on the subject. Who knows at this point what the impact of this would be?
August 21st, 2008 at 8:31 am
RASMUSSEN PENNSYLVANIA POLL
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2008_pennsylvania_presidential_election2
OBAMA: 48
MCCAIN: 45
August 21st, 2008 at 8:32 am
I think that Mr. Romney is still the (or at least a) leading candidate for the job and I realize that Mr. McCain like other good politicians is too smart by half, but I think all these head-fake theories are at least a little far fetch. If Mr. McCain reaaly believes that he must play head game to get Mr. Romney on the ticket, I doubt it will be him. If Mr. Romney actually is the VP, I believe that most of these head game are in people’s imagination. Mr. McCain may be a mad man, but he is far from that mad.
August 21st, 2008 at 8:32 am
Hey guys, look at the bright side.
This way Kavon doesn’t have to slow down. He can simply change the site’s name to Race-4-2012, and we can continue to discuss who is going to run against President Obama in four years.
August 21st, 2008 at 8:32 am
48 - why are you always such a jerk? It comes straight from the actuarial tables for the average American man 72 years old. In fact, McCain would be worse than this because of his problems with cancer. Would you try for just one day to act somewhat civil in your discourse? Oh wait….nm, that’s asking way too much!
August 21st, 2008 at 8:35 am
Picking Lieberman is NOT just about abortion! He has a 16 ACU rating which puts him to the left of Evan Bayh who is at 19. I respect and honor Joe for his views on national security and defense, but he is 100% liberal on taxes, size of government, 2nd Amendment, etc etc etc. He wanted the federal government to regulate video games for crying out loud! He is a big-government liberal period. No thank you.
August 21st, 2008 at 8:38 am
That’s what is so ludicrose #56 - all these people on here claiming to be fiscal conservatives arguing for Lieberman!! Unbelievable, isn’t it?
August 21st, 2008 at 8:40 am
These guys kinda reminds me of those kidnappers that say, “It’s on your head whether the child lives or dies. I have nothing to do with it.”
McCain can do anything he wants. It’s the base’s fault if Obama gets elected. He has nothing to do with it.
August 21st, 2008 at 8:40 am
Illinoisguy:
I do not doubt that on balance you are just as smart (or smarter) as the rest of us with regards to math and statistics. However, I respectfully ask you not to be so harsh even if you think it is true or if it is true. Yes, Mr. McCain could die, but let’s not think of it in those terms. Would you like it if I said Illinoisguy has only X per cent chance of living? I realize that reality is reality, but let us think a little positively when it comes to people’s lives.
August 21st, 2008 at 8:42 am
Illinoisguy:
You do make a good point with regards to Mr. Lieberman. Abortion is certainly not the only problem that Conservativess have with him. He is almost a down the line liberal.
August 21st, 2008 at 8:51 am
57, Is this the calculation using multiplication? Is this for eight years or four years.
August 21st, 2008 at 8:51 am
#56 (BWerty) — exactly.
August 21st, 2008 at 8:53 am
#57: If EconCons are willing to support a VP who’s opposed to their agenda, why aren’t SoCons?
I’m so far to the right on economics I refused to call myself a Republican (and often refused to vote for them, too).
Why?
Because the war trumps domestic policy. If we don’t show the world (esp our current and future enemies) that we WILL stick it out and win, then we have little future national security.
Because a Lieberman VP pick allows McCain to demonstrate it’s him, not Obama, who has a record of rejecting partisan politics, and that is what the voters want now, and we need to win to prevent the disaster of an Obama Presidency.
Because Lieberman will never be the GOP nominee. I’d never tolate a *Republican* economic liberal on the ticket, esp with JMac heading it. But for this reason, a Democrat is acceptable.
August 21st, 2008 at 8:55 am
OHIO, I respectfully disagree with you, and I wouldn’t mind at all if you used the table to project how long I might live. To me, its a matter of making informed decisions. I don’t know how I could have worded it to make it seem less offensive to you. My point is that Mac is 72, and the chances of him not making it through an 8 year terms is quite high. I really am sorry if that is offensive to you, or to others. How else could I have conveyed this very important piece of information without saying it like I did?
Another poster yesterday cited that Mac is likely to live a healthy life for another 8.4 years. What that didn’t say was, that by ‘likely’, they mean barely over a 50% chance. I don’t like odds that show Mac would have a 49.99% chance of not having a healthy 8.4 years.
August 21st, 2008 at 8:55 am
I think at least half of the people that post on this site are shrills for the Democratic party. To suggest Lieberman as a potential running mate is pure lunacy. Is there really nothing left to debate about that you have to post this kind of stupidity. Why not discuss the merits of Hillary Clinton as McCain’s running mate (or has that already been done?). I know, how about if McCain reaches out to Obama and creates a national unity ticket - we wouldn’t even have to vote.
August 21st, 2008 at 8:56 am
BTW, if JMac picks Lieberman, or a pro-choice VP, how many times “I told you sos” will I have racked up on this site?
August 21st, 2008 at 8:57 am
#61 - Its the multiplication method, the correct one, and for 8 years. Thanks for the help last night.
August 21st, 2008 at 9:02 am
I agree with you metro that national security is a huge factor. I also believe that economics is huge, because without a strong economy, our national security fall to pieces. I believe it an erroneous assumption that any of these pro-choice people would enhance electability. I have seen no polls substantiating that whatsoever. In fact, I believe just the opposite to be the case.
If you remember the Zogby polls showed Lieberman doing much, much worse than Romney, or Huckabee for that matter, and it sure isn’t anything to do with the lack of name recognition.
August 21st, 2008 at 9:03 am
#66 - Metro - well let’s just go back to your support for Rudy as the nominee - how many states did Rudy take? What about that brilliant campaign strategy of waiting until Florida votes to compete? So much for republican support for a pro-choice, thrice divorced, republican candidate.
August 21st, 2008 at 9:05 am
Let’s not rehash the primary guys. Kavon has warned against it.
August 21st, 2008 at 9:07 am
#69, JamesB, I didn’t say ALL my predictions came true.
Rudy’s abortion position is not what cost Rudy the nomination. Polls showed only about 9-20% would not vote for him on that. He led national polling for months while his abortion position absolutely dominated the news about the nomination.
#68, Yes, I remember those Zogby polls, but I believe the polling would change once the media began obsessing about the first bi-partisan ticket in a century and that dominated the public consciousness and the campaign could *really* take up its narrative of bringing a new tone to Washington.
August 21st, 2008 at 9:08 am
#70 - my comment in #69 was made to show there why a pro-choice VP candidate will not fly on the republican ticket.
August 21st, 2008 at 9:12 am
#72 Um, OK, so conservatives will accept Rudy at the TOP of the ticket, but not at the bottom?
Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. /sarc
August 21st, 2008 at 9:12 am
I know #72, but it only takes one little crack in the door for some of these people to jump all over the subject….I knew what you meant, and it was fine…I was trying to thwart the rebuttal.
August 21st, 2008 at 9:15 am
#73 - Once they got to know Rudy for something other than 911, they didn’t accept him. It took a while, but the true Rudy finally came out….now I’ve said all I’ll say about ancienthistory.
August 21st, 2008 at 9:17 am
#73 was really about a pro-choice candidate, more broadly speaking, than Rudy.
August 21st, 2008 at 9:17 am
#71 - Metro - give up on kicking the so-cons out of the republican party. Social issues are still at the very core of CONSERVATIVE thought and a basic plank on the republican platform. To totally abandon the social conservatives in this election or any other will fracture the republican and assure democratic victory for many years to come.
August 21st, 2008 at 9:19 am
Matthew
Interesting poll from Minnesota. I guess what it says, after interviewing 763 voters, is that 48 % favor Obama and 38 % favor McCain and if it is Pawlenty on the ticket, than 25 % of the undecided 10 % or 19 voters would support McCain- Pawlenty. The other 75 % of the 10 % undecided would still split 55% -45 % for Obama and Mccain. Is that right ? So Pawlenty draws the race from 48-38 to 48 -39, a 9 point gap..
The only way this becomes important is if Pawlenty actually causes 25 % of Obama’s 48 % support to change. Of course, this would mean Obama would have 36 % and McCain would have 50 % so McCain would carry Minnesota by 14 %.
Of course this is ludicrous. So, what does Minnesota Public Radio even say other than Mccain is losing Minnesota by double digits and would probably nudge closer woth Pawlenty? I think that’s true.
August 21st, 2008 at 9:22 am
#73 - ?? The election showed that Rudy, and his pro-choice, liberal social positions, is NOT acceptable - on the ticket - period.
August 21st, 2008 at 9:23 am
#77 This line of argument is not about kicking SoCons out of the party.
If I behaved in their childish manner, I’d refuse to vote for any Republican who didn’t view taxation as theft and call for an immediate end to it, because those are MY moral beliefs.
August 21st, 2008 at 9:24 am
JamesB, then you were not paying attention during the primaries. There were a zillion polls on the subject.
August 21st, 2008 at 9:28 am
Anyone remember Sean Hannity saying he’d “have no problem voting for Leiberman”? Ha! blowhard.
August 21st, 2008 at 9:29 am
Someone like Romney or Huckabee - someone preceived to be a Conservative, who was expected to serve eight years - might be able to get Lieberman on the ticket, since there would be no question about how they intended to govern.
McCain on the other hand, has shown a history of abandoning conservatism to work with members of the other party - many, including myself, would view a Lieberman pick as him returning to that history.
Besides, many want the VP pick to be Conservatives’ hand and voice in the McCain administration, if he picks Lieberman, strong, base-conservatives are going to be shut out of the McCain white house.
August 21st, 2008 at 9:31 am
#83 is a good point. I would worry what McCain might do domestically much less if he had an EconCon on the ticket.
But first we must win, and must win the war.
August 21st, 2008 at 9:34 am
And for that reason, Lieberman is NOT my first pick.
I’m hoping for Rudy, and I’d be happy with Sanford, Palin, and others.
I’d be much happier with the McCain Admin if Romney were VP, in fact, but I worry he’d cost us the election because so many people can’t stand the man.
August 21st, 2008 at 9:36 am
“If I behaved in their childish manner, I’d refuse to vote for any Republican who didn’t view taxation as theft and call for an immediate end to it, because those are MY moral beliefs.”
Alright - so you are willing to vote for candidates who are against your fundamental beliefs. Thats fine. Many Social Conservatives - perhaps because their views center much more on life and death - aren’t.
August 21st, 2008 at 9:39 am
craig,
That math is bewildering. The poll says that a quarter of those note currently supporting McCain (Obama supporters + undecideds) would back a McCain/Pawlenty ticket. A quarter of 62% is 15.5%. In other words, McCain gains 15.5%. That puts him at 53.5%. And it says nothing about how many undecideds there are in that scenario. Now the pollster says Pawlenty only adds 13%, which I would take to mean that a modest % of voters already choosing McCain would abandon him if Pawlenty were added.
August 21st, 2008 at 9:40 am
a quarter of those NOT currently supporting McCain*
August 21st, 2008 at 9:44 am
craig,
Here’s the money quote: “One in four of the undecided voters and initial-Obama supporters said they’d back a McCain-Pawlenty ticket.” Undecided voters AND the initial Obama supporters. That’s 62% of the electorate. Pawlenty swings 1/4 of 62% of the electorate. Again, that’s alot.
August 21st, 2008 at 9:49 am
Since you are going to spend a lifetime writing ACT, you must start using ‘all right’, not alright. There is no such word as alright. I know I make a lot of typos and I’m too lazy to review them all, but just trying to help you correct that one little flaw. You do awesomely (new word) for a 16 year old, and you’ll get better and better.
August 21st, 2008 at 9:52 am
Matthew,
Yes, I understand what you are saying, but the money quote says that 1/4 of 62 % is 15 % that SWINGS to McCain. That is 15 % from Obama and 15 % to Mccain That is a 30 % swing and gives Mccain a 20 % lead from a 10 point deficit. This is rediculous and all I am pointing out is that I don’t think what they are saying is really what they polled or they are not particularly clear.
August 21st, 2008 at 9:52 am
No single-term pledge for McCain
August 21st, 2008 at 9:54 am
I don’t understand this obssesion with Rudy. He isn’t going to deliver New York or New Jersey. The base rejected completely in the primaries, 4% in every contest voted for him, FOUR PER CENT. He add nothing more than gossips about his private life.
Don’t get me wrong, Rudy was my second choice in the primaries but he was a huge dissapointment.
August 21st, 2008 at 9:55 am
craig,
No, it says that Pawlenty adds 1/4 of the undecideds and Obama supporters. They actually specify that he adds 13% total. He could add 9% of the undecideds and 4% of the Obama supporters. That would make it a 51%-44% McCain lead. A large swing, sure, but not a 30 point swing.
August 21st, 2008 at 9:56 am
So, Falz, you’re going to count the pre- and post- FL states Rudy effectively pulled out of?
Amazing how people around here have no brains and/or honor.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:02 am
I would have loved to see Rudy as our nominee. I love what he did with NYC and I love that he has guts. He could have beaten Clinton in a head-to-head matchup. But 1) Obama isn’t Clinton (and after the primary season it seems that Clinton isn’t even Clinton anymore) and 2) The pro-choice suburbanites that might have flocked to Rudy are not going to vote for a ticket with a pro-lifer on top. Nope. Those voters we might have been able to pick off are going to go to HopeAndChange.
Putting a pro-choicer on the ticket now would be an unmitigated disaster.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:05 am
Not many of the gamblers on intrade.com are interpreting recent events as pro-choice possibilities.
Ridge—–13.1
Lieberman 6
Giuliani 2
Mitt and Tim are battling it out back and forth around the 30 number.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:06 am
Metro put this in your brain:
RUDY FINISH THIRD IN FLORIDA, THIRD.
And don’t ende in four because Huckabee didn’t campaign there and Thompson was out of the race.
deny that is a lack of, well, brain and/or honor.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:07 am
The campaigns this morning jointly released details of the agreed-upon format for the three presidential and one vice-presidential debates this fall.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:08 am
Finished
Ended
August 21st, 2008 at 10:12 am
Adam,
Exactly. Only those who primarily identify as neo-cons fail to see this.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:43 am
Adam, Matthew E. Miller - I am amazed that anyone can fail to see that there is a wide, wide range of opinion encompassed in both “pro life” and “pro choice.” And there is a huge difference between pro-choice(but wanting to appoint originalist judges) and pro-choice (if the baby is accidentally born alive, kill it)
August 21st, 2008 at 10:46 am
Falz, right, because the strategy didn’t work. Too many states voted before he took his stand.
You have to assess the FL results, and the non-FL results, in the context of what he offered.
If we’d had a national primary on Jan 3, the results would be very different.
August 21st, 2008 at 11:02 am
He is a tidbit…Pawlenty is going to be campaigning in Penn. on Sat. and Sun. of this week and will be here in Ohio on Monday. Any thoughts?
August 21st, 2008 at 11:03 am
Press Release from the Club For Growth
Headline: Club For Growth Disappointed in McCain’s Convention Line-up
With the recent publication of the GOP Convention lineup, the Club for Growth was disappointed to see the absence of the party’s most steadfast elected economic conservatives.
With the Republican Party’s brand in shambles, it is important for the Party to showcase those leaders who are currently in office fighting to preserve the limited-government, free-market principles the GOP used to stand for.
August 21st, 2008 at 11:07 am
Metro, let’s have some intellectual honesty that you are usually so impressive with (and that’s not meant facetiously).
Rudy spent money in Iowa and claimed over and over and over again that he was going to compete there, until he saw in the polls that the IA GOP voters rejected him as a candidate.
Rudy spent tons of money in NH, had offices there, did dozens of tv and radio ads, and made dozens upon dozens of appearances in the state, until he saw in the polls that the NH GOP voters were rejecting him and his numbers went further and further down the more time he spent in the state.
Rudy spent money and made ads and had offices in MI, only to pull out at the last minute once again when it became obvious that MI GOP voters were rejecting him.
Rudy was never a good fit for this party, and it had a lot more to do with his past, his positions, and his policies than any convoluted strategy his campaign was forced into by losing the early states so badly.
August 21st, 2008 at 11:10 am
Matt C, that’s a better argument, but I disagree. My full position on that:
http://race42008.com/2008/01/30/a-post-mortem/
August 21st, 2008 at 11:33 am
Lucy,
This isn’t about me failing to see the “nuance” in different pro-choice positions. It’s about a pro-choice dooming the ticket. McCain/Lieberman simply cannot win. Too many evangelicals will sit home, and there aren’t nearly enough absurdly hawkish, but otherwise doctrinaire liberals to replace. Not even close to enough. And a majority of that already small minority are likely already backing McCain, because of foreign policy concerns.
August 21st, 2008 at 12:24 pm
Post# 46 Wow, Wow, if it’s Rudy, my prayers are answered. My gut feeling is that the 2 names
churning at thid point in John McCain’s mind are his two closest friends, Rudy and lieberman.
rudy’s plus over Lieberman is hwe will bring star power and excitement to the ticket, as well
as name recognition. Also, between the two choices, the consaervative base will be more comfortable with Rudy , because he is a Republican. Likeweise, in the conference call, noted
Rudy emohasized that the Republican party is not a one issue party, since McCain stated that
he is pro-life all the way, the VP really will not really matter. Rudy is most qualified to
step into the presidency, if need be , the likelihood of that happening is not likely consiidering
John McCain’s stance.