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TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Sarah Simmons, Director of Strategy
RE: Obama’s Convention Bounce
DATE: August 22, 2008Monday marks the beginning of the Democratic National Convention in Denver. A combination of factors makes this particular convention historic on many levels. Democrats have just completed an incredibly compelling primary cycle that has both energized and divided the Democratic Party. Because of the unique nature of the Democratic primary, we believe Obama will receive a significant bump from his convention.
This cycle mirrors Bill Clinton’s Democratic convention in 1992: A historic 16-point bump. Barack Obama is more similarly situated to Bill Clinton in 1992 than any other candidate in recent history. Bill Clinton was a new candidate on the national scene; he was running in a “change” oriented election cycle and the economy was voters’ top issue — a dynamic he was able to capitalize on. He received a 16-point bump coming out of his convention. Obama is also a “new” candidate in a change-oriented environment. And, like Bill Clinton, he will spend the convention presenting himself as the agent of change who will fix the economy.
Obama will ride his VP bump. In addition to Obama taking advantage of the political environment, he will announce his Vice Presidential candidate late this week. This announcement typically gives a candidate a 5-point temporary bump that dissipates. However, Obama’s timing allows him to maximize his Vice Presidential bump and sustain press attention for the course of the week. He will ride the wave of an announcement from late this week (announcement expected by Saturday) through his speech on Thursday. This means that whatever bump he gains from the announcement has the potential to be lasting.
Obama will correct his underperformance with Hillary Clinton’s primary voters and emerge with a much more cohesive base. This convention gives Obama a platform to unite his base. There continues to be a divide in the Democratic base: Between 10-15% of Democrats are voting for McCain or sitting on the fence. In target states, that number is even higher, between 15-20% in many surveys. The Obama campaign knows that winning or losing in states like Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania depends on Obama’s ability to bring these voters home. If his convention successfully showcases Hillary Clinton and heals the wounds from the primary, he will move large groups of voters in those key places.
Obama’s stadium address on Thursday — the 45th anniversary of Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.’s “I Have A Dream” speech — will result in effusive and overwhelming press coverage. On Thursday, Obama will give a great speech, as has been his trademark. The press will sing his praises and remark on his historic address and Obama’s place in history. For example, The Associated Press today published an article comparing the historic nature of the addresses – a week before Obama’s speech. This coverage will be impenetrable and will undoubtedly impact the polls.
We believe Obama will see a significant bump, and believe it is reasonable to expect nearly a 15-point bounce out of a convention in this political environment.
August 22nd, 2008 at 8:41 pm
ug, drawing comparison’s to clinton’s campaign in 92? probably not the best example for a republican.
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:00 pm
If Barry even comes close to comparing himself to King, the new celebrity ads write themselves.
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:06 pm
“If Barry even comes close to comparing himself to King, the new celebrity ads write themselves.”
Agreed. But can Barry keep his ego in check and pass drawing the ***historic*** parallel? I wonder if such a self-important comparison would turn many off in the black community?
Anyway, Campaign PR bs aside, I look for Obama to get an 8-10 point bounce (which may well be what the McCain campaign really thinks). I think his ceiling is somewhere at or just below 50.
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:06 pm
#1, yes it is, because Obama will not get what Clinton got. They did that on purpose.
btw, Dick Morris was just on Fox and says McCain should go with a woman, he cited Sen. Hutchinson.
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:07 pm
So here’s to hoping that Obama calls himself the fulfillment of Dr. King’s dream- the fulfillment of the covenant.
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:19 pm
I’m not being a smart aleck, but I couldn’t care any less about what Dick Morris thinks. I can’t stand the guy. He is all about selling books.
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:21 pm
Biden and Romney are soaring on intrade
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:23 pm
Dick Morris is a terrible political analyse. Wish Fox News would stop wasting our time with him.
He’s got nothing more than demographics charts. There’s no real thought in any of his commentaries. Just false assumptions and predestinations.
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:24 pm
Meg Whitman is way up recently.
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:25 pm
I still think it could be Meg, and I think I’m the first person to suggest her.
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:29 pm
do we think Biden being the pick is driving up Romney’s stock?
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:31 pm
I like seeing this kind of fiery rhetoric from the McCain campaign. Looks like they are ready to fight and bring the media right into…nice.
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:42 pm
LOL! Everyone is talking veep! hahahaha.
“Police say a suspicious letter sent to John McCain’s campaign office in Manchester was from someone asking him to consider former New York Governor George Pataki as his running mate.”
August 22nd, 2008 at 10:05 pm
Metro, I think its possible to be Meg. I’ve been watching her for some time too, but haven’t said anything. Ever since saddleback when McCain mentioned her as someone he has confidence in for advice, etc..I’ve been wondering. I think its Mitt, but if not he or Pawlenty, I think she is quite possibly the gal.
August 22nd, 2008 at 10:16 pm
Speaking of T-Paw, where has he been lately? I bet with McCain campaign advisors. Romney has been all over TV and Huck is Israel and TV…so Pawlenty it my pick…or John Thune.
August 22nd, 2008 at 10:16 pm
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/08/us-secret-servi.html
For someone to post?
August 22nd, 2008 at 10:24 pm
Biden cancelled his class for tomorrow.
August 22nd, 2008 at 10:25 pm
It’s Biden.