The Candidates
Obama was supposed to expand the electoral map this year in his landslide victory against John McCain in a year where Democrats had every advantage, and then some, over Republicans. If that was so, why then is Obama yanking campaign ads from seven red states just prior to the DNC?
FOXNews is reporting Obama has pulled ads from Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, and Virginia. Some of those make sense — Obama never really had a chance in Alaska or Georgia, for example — but Florida? Virginia?
Obama aides say they are not permanently pulling out of these seven states, and this ad pull is just part of their convention strategy. Seems to me you’d want some tv ads on the air during your convention to maximize your coverage, saturation, and post-convention bounce, though… but that’s just me.
At any rate, any amount of time with no Obama ads playing in these seven states is fantastic news for the GOP this year.
Coming up later this evening, if I have time: an electoral map update with McCain leading 274-264.
August 22nd, 2008 at 3:37 pm
He’s toast…
August 22nd, 2008 at 3:37 pm
NBC News can now project John McCain has won the state of Colorado… and thus has won the PRESIDENCY OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!
August 22nd, 2008 at 3:39 pm
These are where I’ve got all of the states polling somewhat close currently at by averaging polls within the past 6 weeks.
Iowa -8.5%
Wisconsin -7.3%
Oregon -6.5%
Pennsylvania -5.8%
Minnesota -4.5%
Michigan -4.0%
New Mexico -4.0%
New Hampshire -2.0%
Virginia 0.0%
Montana 0.0%
Colorado 0.5%
Nevada 1.0%
Ohio 1.0%
North Dakota 2.0%
Florida 2.6%
South Dakota 4.0%
Missouri 4.0%
North Carolina 4.4%
Indiana 6.0%
Texas 8.0%
Alaska 8.0%
Georgia 9.0%
August 22nd, 2008 at 3:40 pm
Colorado will go late because Denver comes in late…
August 22nd, 2008 at 3:41 pm
No way is Obama abondoning Florida and Virginia this early.
August 22nd, 2008 at 3:44 pm
Obama PISSED people off here in Ohio during the primary campaign season by playing his ads on the TV and radio, quite literally at one point, between EVERY OTHER AD. He got old real fast. He’s starting to do the same thing now. About every third ad on the radio here in Ohio is an Obama one.
Pulling a few ads might actually be a good thing for him. -_-;
August 22nd, 2008 at 3:45 pm
#2
I think you meant to say Michigan and Pennsylvania instead of Colorado.
August 22nd, 2008 at 3:51 pm
1. Alaska hasn’t gone Democrat in 44 years (never even close), and it has 3 electoral votes and share NO media markets with any other state. What the hell was the Obama campaign thinking? Did they just have more money than they could burn?
2. If these ads where already scheduled and then pulled because of “convention strategy,” did the Obama campaign not know until recently when their convention is to be held? Did the convention take them by surprise?
Between Rudy, Hillary, and Obama, this season could produce a ton of textbooks on How Not to Run a Campaign. Heck even McCain nearly fatally wounded himself last year. He just had time to recover.
August 22nd, 2008 at 4:10 pm
Anyone notice Hillary has creeped up to second place on Intrade?
August 22nd, 2008 at 4:39 pm
“…electoral map update with McCain leading 274-264″
It’s a miracle.
August 22nd, 2008 at 4:39 pm
#9: Emphasis on the word “creeped”.
August 22nd, 2008 at 4:43 pm
I thought it fit so much better than “crept” even though that’s correct.
August 22nd, 2008 at 4:47 pm
I was just thinking, with McCain’s ads on Obama being the One - and the chanting of “Obama. Obama. Obama.” in the background and Obama running his ads with people chanting “Obama. Obama. Obama.” in the background, they probably figured people were getting confused. Why waste the money?!
I wasn’t even a McCain supporter during the primaries (at all!) and I am starting to really get excited!
I got my tire pressure gauge in the mail today that says, “Obama Energy Plan” on it.
I love it! I’m going to take it everywhere with me and proudly show it off! (Yes, even to my liberal friends.)
August 22nd, 2008 at 4:57 pm
Off Topic: This video was hilarious. Anyone ever consider voting Republicrat?? Funny stuff.
http://originals.msn.com/republicrats/
Had to take a break from all the serious stuff!
August 22nd, 2008 at 5:06 pm
I think McCain has had Romney picked for a while now, and the last couple of months have been about the element of surprise. Romney practically dropped off of most pundits’ lists. I think McCain (along with Romney) have been orchestrating a big surprise effort all along.
August 22nd, 2008 at 5:15 pm
http://www.kmbc.com/mostpopular/17267009/detail.html#-
August 22nd, 2008 at 5:27 pm
Evan Bayh is shooting up on Intrade now.
August 22nd, 2008 at 5:27 pm
Out of curiosity, has anyone noticed how dull our convention setup is in comparison to the DNC’s?
ours - http://hotair.cachefly.net/images/2008-08/rncc-podium.jpg
DNCs - http://www.democrats.org/a/2008/08/democratic_nati_22.php
August 22nd, 2008 at 5:34 pm
Bayh is skyrocketing on Intrade.
August 22nd, 2008 at 5:36 pm
#14 Jared - Great video! I’ve decided to change parties!
August 22nd, 2008 at 5:36 pm
BAYH IS OBAMA’S VP. SEE DRUDGE.
August 22nd, 2008 at 5:36 pm
Obama-Bayh - well that’ll at least make sure that the dumbest of the anti-gays show up in droves to vote against that ticket
August 22nd, 2008 at 5:36 pm
#5. I agree. It makes sense to me that Obama would pull ads right now, as they’ll get all the publicity they need during the convention. Running ads concurrent to the convention was probably considered redundant and a waste to resources. (And, considering that there’s the ever-present danger of Obama-overexposure, pulling the ads makes sense.)
August 22nd, 2008 at 5:37 pm
that is really hard to say: obamabye. will make for good jokes on s&l.
August 22nd, 2008 at 5:39 pm
Bayh takes the lead on Intrade.
And I may have egg on my face about my analysis.
August 22nd, 2008 at 5:39 pm
#2 and #4. McCain will be declared the winner on Thursday morning after election day, once Denver’s votes have been counted.
August 22nd, 2008 at 5:39 pm
Team Obama runs a really tight ship. Would they really print bumper stickers today, when they could tomorrow?
Bumper stickers?
Kerry-Edwards was leaked in a similar fashion: Someone saw the logo being painted on the jet in a hangar.
I can see why you’d want the jet painted. Big banners for the platform, etc. But bumper stickers?
August 22nd, 2008 at 5:40 pm
Alex, what was your argument against Bayh? That VPs aren’t selected to carry a state?
August 22nd, 2008 at 5:41 pm
Now Biden’s shooting up.
August 22nd, 2008 at 5:41 pm
27 - That he did not properly make up for Obama’s weaknesses, and that his main appeal would be to carry Indiana, something VPs are not historically chosen for.
Of course, that’s just what history says. Obama can do what he wants.
I’m still skeptical, though. I second your #26.
August 22nd, 2008 at 5:43 pm
the sticker does not look in line with obama’s other logos either. maybe its a fake. it doesn’t look very official.
August 22nd, 2008 at 5:45 pm
I think Drudge just took that off someone’s website promoting an Obama-Bayh ticket.
Gotta say that ticket would do well with the women.
August 22nd, 2008 at 5:46 pm
hmm…
an image claims to show proof of an Obama/Bayh ticket…
where have we seen THAT before?
August 22nd, 2008 at 5:46 pm
Kerry-Edwards’ stuff looked little like John Kerry’s stuff. On the other hand, Kerry never had a logo.
August 22nd, 2008 at 5:47 pm
Hmm, interesting. Evan Bayh is somewhat moderate on abortion. NRLC gives him a 25% and NARAL only a 50%.
August 22nd, 2008 at 5:47 pm
32 - act-blog, whether Obama-Bayh is the real ticket or not, the article was a fake.
August 22nd, 2008 at 5:50 pm
i think bayh is a good pick for obama. i t helps pick up the hillary voters that are mad and it helps with the white middle class types that he struggles a little bit with.
He also ads a sense of legitimacy to the young inexperienced obama.
August 22nd, 2008 at 5:53 pm
people still think its biden. that seems just crazy to me. i sure hope its biden. how awsome would that be. gaffe’s all over the place. if he picks biden, the gop’s should continue to hammer the arrogant and cocky theme.
August 22nd, 2008 at 6:00 pm
Alex, I know - my point was just that its a little bit of deja-vu here.
Why would an Obama-Bayh logo not include the “O” that is on EVERY OBama item, including the jet he flies around in.
August 22nd, 2008 at 6:33 pm
Well, Bayh was my 2/3, so if this is true, I wasn’t too off. I think this is probably Obama’s best pick, Hillary aside. I was a big fan of Evan Bayh before this election cycle, and he’s only mildly annoyed me with his move leftward (voting against Alito AND Roberts for instance). He’s solid.
August 22nd, 2008 at 6:34 pm
@ #18:
I think the DNC convention looks like a Hannah Montana set. The Republican one is classic.
August 22nd, 2008 at 7:15 pm
I think Drudge just took that off someone’s website promoting an Obama-Bayh ticket.
Metro,
Watch the clip on KMBC and you’ll see it’s the station that obtained “the piece of political literature” with that design from Gill Studios.
It doesn’t look like a typical Obama sticker, but then again, he’s having a patriotism problem in the polls, and this design is basic, mainstream American.
August 22nd, 2008 at 7:35 pm
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August 22nd, 2008 at 8:38 pm
barry’s already pulling funds out of FL and VA. i love it.