The Candidates
PPIC California General Election
- Barack Obama 48% (50%)
- John McCain 39% (35%)
Survey of 1,047 likely voters was conducted August 12-19. The margin of error is +/- percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 8-22 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
The most significant shift is among independent likely voters, with Obama’s share of their vote dropping 9 points (from 57% to 48%), while McCain’s share has increased 12 points (21% to 33%). Obama has the overwhelming support of Democratic likely voters (81%), and McCain’s support among Republicans is similarly strong (77%). Among other groups, female likely voters prefer Obama to McCain (53% to 32%), while men are divided (42% Obama, 46% McCain). Latino likely voters overwhelmingly prefer Obama (71% Obama, 16% McCain), and whites prefer McCain (38% Obama, 47% McCain). Likely voters under age 35 strongly favor Obama over McCain (65% Obama, 21% McCain), while support among likely voters age 55 and older is divided (43% Obama, 45% McCain).
August 28th, 2008 at 9:12 am
This will close with Romney, but we may not win it.
August 28th, 2008 at 9:15 am
Obama was 10% ahead of Hillary in the primary polls in Cal and lost there.
August 28th, 2008 at 9:17 am
GOP will not win CA - no matter what ticket we throw out there… move along, nothing to see here…
August 28th, 2008 at 9:26 am
It might be somewhat close, but the only way we win this state is by a total Democrat meltdown.
August 28th, 2008 at 9:33 am
True guys, but that could happen! Can you say Ayars, Rezko, Farakhan, Wright….?
August 28th, 2008 at 9:58 am
There is just no way that CA flips without MI and PA already in the bag assuring a McCain victory. But, McCain within 9 pts in CA shows his strength with independants. Lets hope his Veep choice also helps in that department.
August 28th, 2008 at 10:28 am
Only thing CA staying under 10 points is good for is the popular vote and we all know how much that really matters. lol
August 28th, 2008 at 10:55 am
obama is beatable. mccain has really turned his campaign around. they need to run on teh experience thing. bceause clearly obama is admitting his is experience deficient and having biden next to him simply excacerbates that.
an experienced ticket (won’t be t-paw, won’t be palin) along with the arrogance them attack will win it for the republicans.
August 28th, 2008 at 11:15 am
“Latino likely voters overwhelmingly prefer Obama (71% Obama, 16% McCain”
That’s the most troubling number. Wasn’t the latino vote supposed to be close? Obama didn’t do well with them in the primary.
August 28th, 2008 at 11:29 am
California is a cesspool of liberalism. I know. I live here. Hoosier in exile for 30 years, trying to escape next year and go back home.