The Candidates
Now that we’ve all had a few hours to cheer Gov. Sarah Palin’s selection as John McCain’s vice-presidential nominee, it’s time to sit down and weigh the actual costs and benefits. Suffce it to say, she is hardly the slam-dunk choice that some have been proclaiming her to be: the way some people are talking about it — paging Kavon and Michael, both of whom are “on cloud nine”, as they said — it’s like it was obvious all along that Palin was the perfect choice.
She’s not. She’s a Hail Mary choice that we didn’t, by any measure, need. She’s been in elected office for a shorter period of time than Barack Obama, and although she’s actually accomplished something in her short time in office, it sort of undercuts the argument that Obama isn’t ready to lead, doesn’t it? A 44-year-old, two-year governor without a scrap of foreign policy experience to her name is to be a heartbeat away from the presidency? Haven’t we just conceded that Obama’s experience, in fact, does make him ready to lead? There goes the ad campaign.
And can she really pull in Hillary women? Not only did Mrs. Clinton make a fairly convincing cry for unity at the convention, but it seems that her supporters have mostly fallen in line. Palin’s extremist stance on abortion won’t be much help, either, although she’ll probably moderate it.
Expect to see mostly positive ads from here on out. The ticket is now officially a reform-minded one, the Good Government ticket that could potentially spark a landslide. Palin’s short time in office has already given her a fantastic story: she doesn’t just talk about rooting out corruption — she’s done it. She’s taken on the establishment and has shown that she’s beholden to no one. If America’s looking for fresh new leadership, it should look no further.
Better yet, she’s fantastic bait. Is the Obama campaign really going to try to make this campaign about experience? The first statement by an Obama aide this morning was an attack on Palin for her lack of foreign policy experience — oops! This is the potential brilliance of a Palin nomination. They can’t attack Palin for her singular weakness without drawing attention to Obama’s as well! Nothing is left for them to attack her on. She quite possibly could be electoral gold.
To sum, then: what we have here is a double-edged sword. McCain has now partially conceded that Obama does indeed have the experience to lead, but he’s drawing him into attacking his own credentials. An utterly fascinating strategy.
So rejoice, but be cautious. Obama’s shortcomings have allowed us to get away with Palin. We’ll see where this goes.
August 29th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Rejoice? McCain just handed the Presidency to Obama. I’m sick.
August 29th, 2008 at 5:04 pm
I would just like to point out that I touted Palin all summmer long
August 29th, 2008 at 5:05 pm
Well said Alex -
I think we will see this a game changer.
Suffice it to say, I think #1 above is delusional if he/she thinks this one thing will tank John.
August 29th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
there seem to be a lot of dem’s pretending to be republicans on here the last few hours
August 29th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
What does this say about McCain’s judgment? If elected, he will be the oldest President ever to assume office. And what does he leave the country in the event he can’t serve? A wholly inexperienced, out of her depth “rookie.” As they say, she would be only “a breath from the presidency.” In his best judgment, he determined that she would be fit for the awesome responsibility that would be left her. Despite haveing absolutely zero foreign policy experienc.e What’s more, is this makes McCain a hypocrite. He’s lost the ability to argue that Obama doesn’t have the experience to effectively lead the country. All the “rock star” and “empty suit” comments now only combine to make him look like a desperate man who will say anything to gain the advantage. For all his talk about needing someone who would be capable in the war on terror, he picked probably the least experienced choice of all his options. If nothing else, this speaks volumes about his judgment, and that of those around him.
August 29th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
4 - Why? Because we disagree with the choice? Are you saying that if you disagree with the choice to run Palin we must therefore be democrats? Is that the kind of “open” thinking we’ve degraded to here?
August 29th, 2008 at 5:10 pm
yes
August 29th, 2008 at 5:11 pm
next question
August 29th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
#1 and #5. Thank God you weren’t making the VP choice.
August 29th, 2008 at 5:13 pm
Whatever Palin has done is a lot more than Obama has done - and he is the frontrunner!!
August 29th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
Well, this is the kind of straight-forward analysis I was hoping to see rather than just cheerleading. I’m on record as saying I think this is a bad choice and reeks of desperation.
1) Surely they have examined “troopergate” and are comfortable that it goes nowhere - still, it’s a horrible start to have a Federal Investigation hanging over the candidate’s head;
2) She’s a creationist - that’s a big negative in my book.
3) Anyone who thinks this brings in disaffected Democrat or Independent Hillary supporters is on crack. They aren’t going to somehow throw their issues and concerns out the window. Are Romney supporters more likely to vote for Obama because he picked a white male as VP? Now do you see how ridiculous that argument is?
4) Experience - The population of Alaska is akin to something like a city a bit smaller that Ft Worth.
5) It’s tough to see her as ready to step in as President. Can that change in 67 days? Perhaps, but it’s tough to see how that perception changes. We’ll see. As a Republican in my office - a guy who follows politics closely - said to me today: “Who?”
6) Bottom line: people are still voting for the top of the ticket. I suspect Obama and Biden are still going to be going hard after McCain.
August 29th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
I just want to know her position on border issues…anybody know?
August 29th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
#6 - “Why? Because we disagree with the choice? Are you saying that if you disagree with the choice to run Palin we must therefore be democrats? Is that the kind of “open” thinking we’ve degraded to here?”
No, but there is no fence sitting in this election. You either choose to support the GOP, or are by default supporting the DNC. Don’t you get that?? If you choose to nit-pick the Veep selection by McCain, you are in essence “throwing the baby out with the bathwater”. If you even think that you are a conservative, and then DON’T rally behind the pick, regardless of whether or not you thought someone else would do better, you are by default supporting more radical stances on issues. Again, you are either with us, or you might as well vote Democrat. It is going to take ALL OF US to win this election!
August 29th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
Evan, do you have proof for your point #2?
August 29th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
she doesn’t have to bring all independent/hillary women over…just get a 2-3% bounce in female support for mccain..if he gets that probably game over
August 29th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
The experience argument wins for us.
Obama is the PRESIDENTIAL candidate. Palin is the VICE-Presidential candidate.
Our ticket is right-side up. Theirs is upside-down.
They can’t win that argument.
August 29th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
The experience thing is great ju-jitsu.
August 29th, 2008 at 5:22 pm
#14 Lucy: It came up in the 06 gubernatorial debate (link) - she said she thinks it should be taught in public schools in science classes.
Sorry, but moderates and independents with that aren’t going to like that.
August 29th, 2008 at 5:22 pm
Just to correct Evan, she’s not being federally investigated.
August 29th, 2008 at 5:22 pm
#17 - I agree. Perfect trap for the Dems to fall head first into. And within minutes they had already taken the bait.
August 29th, 2008 at 5:25 pm
Our ticket is right-side up. Theirs is upside-down.
Well, the difference is that McCain is 72 and has a history of cancer. VP Candidates have to be seen as ready to step in. And while I agree that people vote for the top of the ticket, the VP pick is seen as the first big decision and an indication of judgment - IS she ready to step in as President? I think she might surprise a lot of people and come out really strong in her upcoming appearances…I guess she’s going to be out campaigning this weekend? Does anyone know where?
August 29th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
I’m a bit mystified, I must say, by the contention that Palin’s accomplished anything of note during her time as governor. She’s made a few new appointments and has negotiated the pipeline deal, but we have no idea how anything she has done will turn out. What if it goes badly? What if the state got screwed on the pipeline?
August 29th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
I’m with Kavon and Metro on this. I think it’s a great pick. As for the experience argument, I agree with George Will. The Democrats have a kangaroo ticket. The back legs are stronger than the front legs.
While it’s true that any objective analysis would have to consider that there are risks, I think on the whole it was a great pick. Conservatives are very enthused about this. McCain got about as many moderates as he can. And most important is that Palin has working-class cred that could be used against Biden. She is a down-to-earth mom whose mother and father worked at her local school. Palin succeeded in politics honestly and on her own merit. She didn’t play politics and disqualify political opponents to get them off the ballot. She worked her way up. She has a great story. Obama does not. Palin has real accomplishments in her short time in public service. Obama does not. THAT is what needs to be the focus.
August 29th, 2008 at 5:35 pm
She also supports “comprehensive immigration reform” according to an Alaskan Palin booster I’m talking to. The lady didn’t seem to realize that would be a point against her to me when I asked. I hope she’s wrong about it, but I can’t find any info on her stance one way or the other. One thing’s for sure though, Palin is GREAT on energy.
August 29th, 2008 at 5:37 pm
3) Anyone who thinks this brings in disaffected Democrat or Independent Hillary supporters is on crack. They aren’t going to somehow throw their issues and concerns out the window. Are Romney supporters more likely to vote for Obama because he picked a white male as VP? Now do you see how ridiculous that argument is?
No, because we’ve already had like, 90 white male presidents and vice-presidents.
August 29th, 2008 at 5:40 pm
bigmo - that’s GREAT about her being strong on energy! Do you have a link to where she stands on wind, solar, etc?
August 29th, 2008 at 5:40 pm
#13
Not all Republicans are conservatives - about a third are pretty moderate.
August 29th, 2008 at 5:42 pm
Why? Because she supports drilling for oil in ANWR? I’m sorry, but I have a hard time understanding how someone who doesn’t even believe in modern science can be “GREAT on energy”.
August 29th, 2008 at 5:43 pm
#13 - do you have to be a conservative to be a Republican or was that just a slip?
August 29th, 2008 at 5:44 pm
#28 - Is there more to her stance on energy than supporting drilling in ANWR? Or is that it? I though bigmo was referring to more.
August 29th, 2008 at 5:45 pm
#30
That’s really about it.
August 29th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
Palin on energy?
August 29th, 2008 at 5:53 pm
Why do we win? Because people forget how independants vote. Why are they the block of voters we have to win over? Because less than 40% of the country is republican and less than 40% of the country is democrat. The battle is won in the middle.
As much as we would like to win as a result of our issue positions, we never have. We win because independants vote based on their emotions not their positions. They say, this person makes me believe that they will make our country better. Barrack obama isn’t polling at 55% because people love his rhetoric, but don’t believe in his ability to make things better. Sarah Palin will make them believe, and John McCain has made a believer out of them before. Joe Biden? Are you kidding, he couldn’t make a 2 year old believe in his ability to make things better.
August 29th, 2008 at 5:53 pm
Ed Morrissey:
John McCain and nearly every economist agrees that a windfall-profits tax on the oil industry would drive away investment, increase prices to consumers, and make Americans more dependent on foreign oil. If anyone wants to see that in microcosm, they only need look at Alaska. With the backing of Governor Sarah Palin, the state managed to drive away investment in development by hiking taxes on oil companies drilling on state lands:
Over the opposition of oil companies, Republican Gov. Sarah Palin and Alaska’s Legislature last year approved a major increase in taxes on the oil industry — a step that has generated stunning new wealth for the state as oil prices soared. …
BP Alaska, which runs Prudhoe Bay, said earlier this year that it had delayed the development in the western region of the North Slope as a result of the tax. ConocoPhillips cited the same reason for scrapping a $300 million refinery project.
“What the tax has done is take away all the upside,” said Doug Suttles, president of BP Alaska. The U.K.-based oil company paid more than $500 million in taxes to Alaska last quarter — far more than it earned in profits from Alaskan oil, according to Suttles.
Investment dollars are flowing instead to places that have a better return, like the massive deep-water projects offshore in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, where ConocoPhillips said the government take equals less than 50 percent of the barrel.
She was fully vetted, right?
August 29th, 2008 at 5:55 pm
I’m afraid it might not have been thorough enough.
August 29th, 2008 at 5:56 pm
The best argument for why Obama isn’t ready to lead is his leftist views, not his inexperience.
August 29th, 2008 at 5:59 pm
#36 - Got it. I see that’s changed today.
August 29th, 2008 at 6:01 pm
#36
Obama’s moving to the center and McCain just leaned sharply to the right. This is not the year to abandon the center if you want to win. Ugh.
August 29th, 2008 at 6:02 pm
People vote for lots or reasons. Some women will vote for the ticket because Todd is hot. Some men will vote for the ticket because Palin is hot. Not everybody is an issues voter. Some will vote for the ticket because Palin has a Downs child and they have one. Some will vote for the ticket because Sarah hunts and they want to keep their guns. Many will vote for the ticket and not Bob Barr because Palin is conservative enough. How many people on this site have said they won.t vote for a pro-abortion ticket? Some will vote for this ticket because they hate that Hillary lost. If McCain loses this election, it will be because of the economy, not Palin. Socialism, however, is not a change I can believe in.
August 29th, 2008 at 6:05 pm
Paul a sure-fire way to lose this election is to get in bed with big oil.
August 29th, 2008 at 6:05 pm
I brought my post over from the end of another thread.
As a hardcore Romney supporter, I was at first not sure about this. I watched her speech this morning and was extremely impressed. I think she is just what the doctor ordered at this point given the circumstances of the race.
Even though I have a bachelors and a master’s degree and have worked a tiny bit each week for years, I have very much stayed home with my children, so I am not fond of her leaving her baby, BUT although I don’t advocate any woman leaving her children in daycare, I think that our country needs someone like her. Furthermore, having a child with disabilities (my 17 year old senior in high school), I can tell you there is a lot of help for these kids, and she will have the money to get the help she needs for him.
I have all of my family members in Ohio, most of them are democrats. I spoke to my sister today (huge Hillary supporter) and asked her what she thought of Palin. Of course she had no idea who she was, but she said she thinks it is just a ploy and that she is not going to vote. If I get a good article at some point on Palin, I will send it to my family in Ohio. Most of them could be swayed I think.
August 29th, 2008 at 6:06 pm
#37 It never changed for me. see here:
http://race42008.com/2008/08/29/thirty-five-years/
August 29th, 2008 at 6:07 pm
center of what?….Marx and Rosa Luxemborg?
August 29th, 2008 at 6:07 pm
#41 The VP job gives here MORE time with the kids that a governor’s job!
August 29th, 2008 at 6:12 pm
As a white guy, I am glad we are not just a party of white guys. Palin is a good pick, no alternative was better. I am a friend of John Thune. I told him a month ago that if it wasn’t him, he should push for Palin. I hope he had McCain’s ear. Although I give most of the credit for the pick to Cindy McCain.
August 29th, 2008 at 6:18 pm
I love Palin, but… man, I’m nervous. Conservatives are thrilled, but the chattering classes are, well, laughing. I’m very, very nervous.
August 29th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
this interview of Palin recently should remove alot of doubts about her abilities and competence, she even gets a shot in at Biden!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2GE11URmmnc&e
August 29th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
#29 - “do you have to be a conservative to be a Republican or was that just a slip?”
No if you are conservative, you are more than likely a Republican. If you are a more moderate Republican, surely you would endorse the McCain/Palin ticket more than the Uber-Liberal ticket of Obama/Biden. That is all that was meant by it. Obama represent the kook left-wing of his party in terms of issues, and anyone that expresses moderate to conservative views, I would think would do whatever they could to ensure a McCain/Palin victory rather than disparage the GOP ticket because they felt someone would have been a better choice. The decision has been made, and my point was that by sitting it out, or riding the fence and complaining, you are by default agreeing with the liberal direction that Obama would take our nation.
August 29th, 2008 at 6:33 pm
#46
I agree. I think she’s gonna get torn apart by Obama-Biden.
August 29th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
Big S, I think you’re mostly just upset that he didn’t pick a pro-choicer.
August 29th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
Holy SH curse!
I just realized something after pondering what Matthew Miller wrote on a previous thread. McCain is running Hillary’s playbook… perfectly bisected!
He has put out the doubts of Obama’s experience which worked OK for Hillary in the first half of her campaign and has spilled over into McCain’s argument and general election polls.
NOW he is flipping the narrative SOONER than Hillary and turning his campaign into a blue-collar, working-class, drill everywhere campaign aimed at Hillary/Reagan Democrats while getting the base out.
I’ll link the comment when I find it.
August 29th, 2008 at 6:48 pm
I just found out that Palin almost got recalled as Mayor of Wasilla for … a controversial firing of the Police Chief, apparently because he did not “fully support” her. This keeps getting better and better!
August 29th, 2008 at 6:49 pm
A quick overview video someone put together of Palin. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_vaH2BjVeA&feature=related
August 29th, 2008 at 6:55 pm
I’m upset that he’s throwing away every argument he had for being elected. I genuinely liked John McCain because I though he would put “Country First”. Apparently, he’s not as serious about that as he would like us to believe.
August 29th, 2008 at 7:01 pm
#55 - You’re one of my favorite posters here. I felt better after I read this - http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/08/how-palin-came.html - I wanted Rudy up til the last minute, but I am seeing what Palin brings to the ticket.
August 29th, 2008 at 7:06 pm
I’ll be voting for McCain/Palin. I’m obviously disappointed about Mitt, because I truly believed with all my heart that the country needed his talents. I’m beginning to think we still have a chance at this thing; sure hope so, because I was very confident we could have won it with Mitt on the ticket.
August 29th, 2008 at 7:10 pm
55 - Complimenting yourself, eh?
August 29th, 2008 at 7:21 pm
My other posts aren’t going through.
Just a note - does this remind you of Henry Higgins and Eliza Doolittle?
August 29th, 2008 at 7:22 pm
“I’m upset that he’s throwing away every argument he had for being elected. I genuinely liked John McCain because I though he would put “Country First”.”
I think its reasonable for McCain to think that getting himself elected instead of Obama is putting the country first.
August 29th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
#58 - I was afraid it would remind me of “The Governor and J.J.” - if anybody remembers it, but it didn’t.
August 29th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
#55 huh??
August 29th, 2008 at 8:20 pm
61 - Huh? Usually, when someone is replying to a post, they name the post they are replying to.
Were you calling me one of your favorite posters?
August 29th, 2008 at 8:24 pm
Glad you are on board Illinoisguy, I know it is not always easy. I was shocked at first, but this might work. Not being a gambler, I probably would not have done this, but I do not have the internal polls. Already, a few Women for Mr. Barr told me that they lean to McCain/Palin now, so it might work.
August 29th, 2008 at 8:30 pm
Alex,
I enjoyed your analysis and hoped to suggest some comments. Kavon or whoever decided to kill my last post. I ‘m sorry, as I thought my comments were constructive and to your point. I guess this won’t go through either. Interesting control of opinion usually not found in our Democratic society , but not so surprising. Kinda shoot the messenger program. Well, that’s O.K. Good luck anyway.
August 29th, 2008 at 8:54 pm
OHIO - I don’t think any internal polls could have had anything to do with this. He had to have done it blind, cause NOBODY knows her to respond in a poll with any meaningful opinions.
August 29th, 2008 at 8:59 pm
craig, I for one think your analysis the last few weeks have been extremely astute. Unfortunately, McCain didn’t think a like we did, and we have who we have. So, even though we both know Mitt was a super good candidate, we have to live with who has been chosen. Now, we still have to beat ‘The One’ or we’ll be stuck in a socialistic society for a very long time. And we’ll have a supreme court that we hate for another 20+ years, so lets pull ourselves out of the mud, and support what is before us.
August 29th, 2008 at 9:03 pm
Illinois Guy.
I think so too, but every time I try to post, it is destroyed, so I’m not too crazy about trying continue to suggest some thoughts if the posts are always disregarded.
August 29th, 2008 at 9:06 pm
I don’t think its anything to do with it coming from you…Its eating a lot of postings from everybody.
August 29th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
Illinois Guy,
Nah, it eats everything I post. Someone doesn’t like the comments. Kinda like the NYT Editorial Board.
August 29th, 2008 at 9:15 pm
#62 - The numbering must be screwy tonight - I was posting to Big S - but you’re another one of my favorites. so there
August 30th, 2008 at 8:08 am
Alex, I’ll try once again and assume it was just a glitch…which happens. So, maybe my mistake.
I think your analysis is pretty lucid and a good argument for pragmatic, cold analysis.
1. I understand that McCain first met Palin in February, 2008. He didn’t meet her again until this Wednesday.So, he knows VERY little about his running mate. Has to rely on Culverhouse and Schmidt. Of course, she doesn’t know him as well. Chemistry ?
2. Palin is a Mormon , a fact likely to make our Huckster anti- Romney Evangelical folks at least a little antsy. She even owns three homes which makes a total of 10, the press will point out.
3. I’m sure that McCain and Culverhouse vetted Palin, but there is some uncertainty hanging over the ongoing investigation. I think this issue will be a key element in the Dem response and you will see a MAJOR, in- Alaska, commitment of Obama money and
resources to flesh this and any other problems out. Obama’s strategy would be to keep Palin on defense , and by extension, McCain’s judgement and slow roll this troopergate thing through mid- October, if it has wings. It’s not enough for GOP partisans
to
say there’s nothing to it, if the Dems keep it near the front page long enough.
4. Palin’s never run a national campaign. In fact, she has been remarkably isolated from the lower 48 state press for her entire career. She is about to have two things happen:
a. Her state will be invaded by the press looking for stories, good and bad. And they will find some.
b. She will leave the insulation of Alaska for a national campaign, totally inexperienced with the pressure of an 18 hour, 7 day / week campaign with the opposition hitting her daily as well as her family. It’s not obvious how she will react. Quayle is NOT a
good example.
So, this is a ” Hail Mary” pick in the sense that it is a one time, roll- the- dice, winner take all for McCain. If he has guessed wrong about the women vote and how much he can access with Palin, if there are legs still to be followed in troopergate, if Palin has a
“moment” on the stump or can’t handle the national full court press…….he loses. No time really to react. And, I don’t know why he felt he had to do this. We’ll see.
August 30th, 2008 at 8:12 am
Alex, I’ll try once again and assume it was just a glitch…which happens. So, maybe my mistake. Page 1
I think your analysis is pretty lucid and a good argument for pragmatic, cold analysis.
1. I understand that McCain first met Palin in February, 2008. He didn’t meet her again until this Wednesday.So, he knows VERY little about his running mate. Has to rely on Culverhouse and Schmidt. Of course, she doesn’t know him as well. Chemistry ?
2. Palin is a Mormon , a fact likely to make our Huckster anti- Romney Evangelical folks at least a little antsy. She even owns three homes which makes a total of 10, the press will point out.
3. I’m sure that McCain and Culverhouse vetted Palin, but there is some uncertainty hanging over the ongoing investigation. I think this issue will be a key element in the Dem response and you will see a MAJOR, in- Alaska, commitment of Obama money and
resources to flesh this and any other problems out. Obama’s strategy would be to keep Palin on defense , and by extension, McCain’s judgement and slow roll this troopergate thing through mid- October, if it has wings. It’s not enough for GOP partisans
to
say there’s nothing to it, if the Dems keep it near the front page long enough.