The Candidates
I know that we had a lot of fun with it, but can we now please, please, please put to rest the myth that Intrade is such a big deal?
Shouldn’t the fact that Romney, Pawlenty, Hutchison, Ridge, and Lieberman all reached higher peaks than Palin ever did reveal something about our site-wide obsession?
Just a thought…
August 29th, 2008 at 9:24 pm
My only usage of it was it reflected a wide spectrum of how others were seeing the races developing, and not just our opinions on here. That was especially true once the volumes picked up.
August 29th, 2008 at 9:26 pm
Speak it bro.
August 29th, 2008 at 9:27 pm
#1, Mitt was so classy today, I look forward to seeing him as Secretary of State.
August 29th, 2008 at 9:30 pm
I was never a part of it. My obcession is me!
August 29th, 2008 at 9:30 pm
NEVER!!!! INTRADE IS GOD!!!!!!!!!!!
August 29th, 2008 at 9:31 pm
Intrade is meaningless for VP selections since there is only one person making the call… wide general elections, it is nearly as good as gold as a predictor.
The VP obsession with intrade was irrational for sure
August 29th, 2008 at 9:31 pm
Especially when the decisions being betted on are from opaque sources, such as one or two people who aren’t talking. I think Pawlenty and Romney were both over 70 within 24-48 hourse of Palin’s selection.
August 29th, 2008 at 9:33 pm
Jeff,
Intrade is better with voters, but even in the primaries, it didn’t do so well. It seemed in the close races, it didn’t really break for the winner until after the polls closed. Hardly a useful predictor. But anymore than just a few hours out, it was pretty worthless.
August 29th, 2008 at 10:18 pm
The Rombots clung (whether bitterly or not) to Intrade because it offered them solace.
It’s totally worthless — we kept telling them that it was completely wrong on Biden as well, but they refused to listen.
August 29th, 2008 at 10:20 pm
Alex,
No. Small sample size. You know better than this.
August 29th, 2008 at 10:23 pm
That wasn’t clear enough.
Alex,
No. The amount of people who bet on the primary and the general election winner is much higher and the volume is much greater. The small sample size for bettors on the VP indicates that it isn’t useful for this particular exercise, as Kavon noted earlier in the week (last week?) You know better than this.
August 29th, 2008 at 10:50 pm
I would have thought people would have gotten over intrade during the primaries when they swung drastically as results came in, and then all the Intrade lovers would claim how “acurate” of a predictor it is.
9. Seems like I remember Rudybots doing the same for about 12 months.
August 29th, 2008 at 10:52 pm
intrade called it for biden…
August 29th, 2008 at 10:52 pm
6. When are it’s predictions accurate? 12 months out? 6 months out? 2 months out? 2 days out? 2 min before fox news calls it?
I think you know the answer.
It ran Rudy up for ever during the primaries and were constantly told by Rudy bots that “the smart money is on Rudy.” Well none of the smart votes were.
August 29th, 2008 at 10:55 pm
i could have bought mccain for gop nominee at 3.5% about a year ago. woulda shoulda coulda.
August 29th, 2008 at 10:55 pm
14,
Roughly 2-5 days out. That is the nature of markets.
August 29th, 2008 at 11:01 pm
You mean when someone has the lead and the polls have to little time to swing? Wow. What a wonderful tool.
August 29th, 2008 at 11:12 pm
17,
It is better than any pundit out there. Not one single pollster was better than Intrade in 2004. As it gets more users, the value will only increase.
August 29th, 2008 at 11:13 pm
I never have been convinced by Intrade. Sure, it’s fun, and I like to point to it for kicks, but I’ve never been sold on its usefulness.
August 29th, 2008 at 11:13 pm
I should clarify (again). It is better than any poll out there, but has no long term predictive value. Does that make more sense?
August 29th, 2008 at 11:15 pm
Are speaking of generals? RAsmussen called it correctly within .5% or something like that.
In 2008 I see no value in Intrade really. And what is most annoying about Intrade lovers is their citing of 6 months in advance. When it holds zero value.
August 29th, 2008 at 11:20 pm
I am speaking about getting every single state correct in 2004. It is a market. Inherently, it is going to be better than everything else out there, provided all investors are rational.
I agree with your last statement with the caveat that had the hypothetical election been held at the -6 month point of the real election, it would have been accurate.
August 29th, 2008 at 11:24 pm
AdamPSU,
than at that point it is no longer a predictor, it is just an accurate teller of what the state of the race is at that moment, correct? An accurate predictor at 6 months out would look at the race and predict future events on todays trends. Who needs a predictor for the future that is only good today?
August 29th, 2008 at 11:27 pm
alex, look at it this way. if intrade does suck and you’re super savy, you can stand to make a small fortune off it which makes it all the more interesting.
August 29th, 2008 at 11:33 pm
Jason,
I agree with your premise. I could ask just as easily “Why do we need a daily Gallup and a daily Rasmussen poll 4 months out?” I personally use them the same way, as a data point. For Intrade, I tend to weight it more heavily than others.
I guess perhaps that I see Intrade in a different way than most. I see it as the most accurate way to describe the race at any given point with no predictive value, so long as there are enough people investing to make it accurate. Sort of a law of large numbers approach to things.
Maybe I’m wrong, but we may be saying the same thing from different points of view?
August 29th, 2008 at 11:35 pm
How many times do I have to post the paper that these markets are about 97% accurate 90 days before an election in a 2-man race?
Shall I find the link again?
August 29th, 2008 at 11:36 pm
http://bpp.wharton.upenn.edu/jwolfers/Papers/Predictionmarkets.pdf
August 29th, 2008 at 11:38 pm
See Figure 1.
August 29th, 2008 at 11:39 pm
metro, fine.
But my complaint deals with the 08 primaries and how people relied so heavily on them when they were anything but accurate. I understand they are more accurate in the generals, They would naturally so: less variables.
August 29th, 2008 at 11:40 pm
Jason, I’ve posted that for you several times in the past months.
And you speak as if I never did — or you never looked at it.
August 29th, 2008 at 11:42 pm
So why slander the market’s stunning abilities to out-predict professional pollsters in two-man races (including on a state-by-state level in a Presidential election)… because it isn’t as good in a multi-field primary?
August 29th, 2008 at 11:42 pm
You posted an answer to 29?
August 29th, 2008 at 11:45 pm
31. I havent. I think I have only complained about the way it was used in the primaries on this website. THat’s where my complaints lie. If I did, I was wrong, but my chief complaint was solely people using it to prop up Rudy for a whole year. It was absolutely ridiculous.
In #21 I am referring specifically to the 08 primaries.
August 29th, 2008 at 11:48 pm
Looked at Figure 1 and read the relevant paragraph. I can agree that it will show some value 90 days out for a popular vote election, considering it has roughly 1.5% error. My questions are as follows:
1. Even though the 2002 paper cited showed skill in forecasting local elections, were those elections close (I obviously don’t have that paper handy)?
2. If not, would it show skill in an electoral college-type election, particularly one as close as this one will/might be?
3. In an election forecast by “experts” to be “close” in the electoral college, will the 1.5% error matter?
Again, I treat Intrade with more significance than any other poll, but the two pages I read because it’s late didn’t really convince me off my arguments in this thread.
Metro,
If you really think my thoughts are unfounded, let me know. I’ll read the whole article. It’s kind of busy for me at the moment with hurricane season in full force, but this will help me in other endeavors.
August 29th, 2008 at 11:50 pm
Adam, I’ve gotta run myself.
August 29th, 2008 at 11:51 pm
did palin say who she voted for in the alaska primary? will she be forced to answer that one?
August 29th, 2008 at 11:55 pm
#36, I have a feeling she voted for Paul or Romney.
August 29th, 2008 at 11:57 pm
sampo,
Do you mean the Young/Parnell race? She endorsed Parnell. And for the record, I think we maybe dodged a bullet since it looks like Parnell is going to lose. She might catch some flack if she left Alaska while Parnell was campaigning for Congress…who would run the state? Parnell doesn’t even want to beat Young I’m betting at this point.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:07 am
no, i’m asking if she voted for mccain.. did she tip her hand one iota in the presidential primaries?
August 30th, 2008 at 12:16 am
Why are my comments not showing up!?!? O_o;;
August 30th, 2008 at 12:16 am
That one showed up. ???
August 30th, 2008 at 12:17 am
Palin said in an interview not long ago that Ron Paul and Mitt Romney were her favorite candidates during the primaries.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:17 am
The McCain Las Vegas HQ is reporting a steady stream of volunteers have been showing up at the office an volunteering.
http://www.fox5vegas.com/news/17342283/detail.html
August 30th, 2008 at 12:17 am
Intrade doesn’t work for arbitrary and capricious. Trying to predict McCain’s VP pick was like predicting what entree someone will pick off a menu. Chicken Cacciatore? Eggplant Parmigiana? No telling.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:18 am
Palin campaigned for Buchanan in ‘96 and ‘00.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:19 am
There. Apparently I can only post like one sentence in the comments, otherwise it won’t show up. ><;;
August 30th, 2008 at 12:21 am
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/jstreet/350730/sarah_palin_buchananite
August 30th, 2008 at 12:26 am
#45, yeah when Buchanan found that out this morning his head almost popped off. ha!
August 30th, 2008 at 12:26 am
The more I learn about Palin, the less I like her.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:27 am
palin’s choice was air tight. on lunch i went to the mccain headquarters in colorado asking for a mccain-palin bumper sticker and they said it was such a tightly held secret that sara palin’s parents didnt even know until the announcement broke nationally.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:29 am
Carl Cameron knew before Sarah Palin’s parents? Lol!
August 30th, 2008 at 12:30 am
Me too.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:31 am
The more I learn about her, the more I like her.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:32 am
alex, I voted for Perot.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:34 am
Sarah Palin left Wasilla in a budget crisis.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:34 am
She campaigned for City Council in the 90’s on a pro-sales tax platform.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:34 am
I have faith in mccain’s judgment. history proves him right. he opposed reagan his first term in congress when he sent marins into lebanon. history would prove him right. he supported campaign finance reform before clinton and gore were renting out the lincoln bedroom to the chinese to fund their campaigns. he was the only major candidate in 2000 to identify the threat that russia and putin were to the world. he knew the threat the north koreans posed in the clinton administration. he was right on the surge. he was right on pork spending. he is right on the line item veto. he’s right on immigration (yeah yeah). he was right on nuclear energy. he’s right on ethanol subsidies (unless you like spending 4-5 bucks a gallon for milk).
mccain is a risk taker. if he has faith in palin, so do i.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:35 am
She sported a Buchanan button…in 1999. Is she a protectionist?
August 30th, 2008 at 12:35 am
As for the topic of this post, I can’t believe anyone would think that the Intrade market would be a good predictor of who one man would name as his VP nominee.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:36 am
She praised the Obama energy plan and raised taxes on oil companies.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:36 am
Alex, she wants to export and trade.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:36 am
She’s a militant pro-lifer (although I suspect that she’ll moderate her position on that).
August 30th, 2008 at 12:36 am
She confessed, in an interview, in the middle of a war, that she hasn’t been thinking much about foreign policy.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:36 am
Alex, she did not raise taxes. That is false lie by the media.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:37 am
#55, Uh Oh.
#56, Eww. Was the new sales tax meant to replace another tax, or was it just another tax…?
August 30th, 2008 at 12:37 am
She’s twice been accused of corruption. Even if nothing comes of it, it’s bad PR.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:37 am
mccain’s a militant pro-lifer. hasnt hurt him so far
August 30th, 2008 at 12:37 am
Alex, she praised Obama for endorsing her pipeline, but she was very critical of Obama for not paying for his plan.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:38 am
She originally SUPPORTED the Bridge to Nowhere, but only ended up opposing it because Alaska couldn’t secure the federal funds, apparently.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:38 am
Alex, she fixed the budget issue of Wasilla.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:38 am
McCain’s not a militant pro-lifer, sampo. He’s never indicated that he’d oppose abortions in cases of rape.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:38 am
#58
I’d be interested to know how much of Palin’s vaunted energy policy is rooted in protectionist ideology. I’ve been getting a little worried about the blurring of lines between “energy independence” and “energy protectionism” for a little while now, and I’m not the only one.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:39 am
ontheissues:
Rated 0% by NARAL, indicating a pro-life voting record. (Dec 2003)
August 30th, 2008 at 12:39 am
#69, not true.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:40 am
She wants to create a lower-level cabinet to address “climate change” in Alaska.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:40 am
Whoa. Conflicting info from Alex and Kristofer. o_o;
August 30th, 2008 at 12:41 am
I think I’ve exhausted my list of complaints. Kristofer, please convince me.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:41 am
WTF? i thought all a supply sider needed was an endorsement from larry kudlow, which she has had for the past several months.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:42 am
Alex, she wants to trade, she supports McCain foreign policy, she cut pork and construction projects.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:43 am
There is zero indication that she supports McCain’s foreign policy vision, or even that she’s given much thought to foreign policy. What’s her vision? I have no idea. It will be interesting to see if she possesses gravitas and moral clarity.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:43 am
The Kudlow endorsement was due to ANWR, I believe.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:45 am
ok, not that i have a whole lot of respect for single issue voters, but come on! when did anwr ever deserve to be a single issue for a voter?
August 30th, 2008 at 12:46 am
By the way, it appear to be true that Palin was for the Bridge to Nowhere before she was against it.
Would you continue state funding for the proposed Knik Arm and Gravina Island bridges?
Yes. I would like to see Alaska’s infrastructure projects built sooner rather than later. The
window is now–while our congressional delegation is in a strong position to assist.
That quote shows a bit of enthusiasm for earmark spending, too.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:46 am
Palin supports more competition, less corporate welfare, tax cuts, spending cuts, the McCain foreign policy, drilling, ethics reform, she named 6 Feb 2008 as Ronald Reagan day in Alaska, she quotes Newt Gingrich, free-market health care, and she does not believe climate change is man made.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:46 am
Oops - That middle part should be in a blockquote.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:47 am
#83, continue state funding for the bridge, NOT FEDERAL FUNDING.
Get a BRAIN!
August 30th, 2008 at 12:49 am
#86
The quote clearly implied that she wanted to continue state funding because she could also get (federal) congressional assistance. Am I missing something there?
August 30th, 2008 at 12:50 am
Only Big S would paste links to left-wing sites on here.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:51 am
didn’t reagan sign a multi-billion dollar tax increase as governor? romney was the guy who stood in lock step with ted kennedy for universal healthcare and they tell me huckabee ran to the left of romney. governors can’t be so partisan. they need to be more moderate than legislators.
(this one’s for alex) rudy loved getting pork spending too which is why he became the liberal vs clinton when he lobbied to outlaw the line item veto.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:51 am
As probably the biggest anti-spender here in the comments section and a non-McCain/Palin supporter, I ironically have to come to Palin’s defense on the “Bridge” and earmarks. CONGRESSIONAL EARMARKS DO NOT INCREASE GOVERNMENT SPENDING. They merely divert it away from the executive and direct the taxpayers’ money back to the taxpayers. Putting “pork” into a budget doesn’t waste money any more than not putting “pork” into a budget. It is simply a different way of dividing up a pie whose size is already determined.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:53 am
#88
Don’t shoot the messenger(s)..
August 30th, 2008 at 12:55 am
#90
First the experience argument goes out the window. Earmarks now? If this excuse catches on, what will McCain run on?
August 30th, 2008 at 12:56 am
pork doesn’t increase spending nearly as much as it breeds corruption. enter exibit a: jack abromoff.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:59 am
Aye.
I’ll still take her over Romney or Pawlenty any day, though.
August 30th, 2008 at 1:00 am
#89
Many people (even those who call themselves “fiscal conservatives”) see a legitimate role for earmarks (or directed federal spending by other means). The issues arise when Bridges to Nowhere, Golf Awareness grants, and Iowa Indoor Rainforests soak up the millions of dollars that could be put to more productive use (like refurbishing existing infrastructure).
August 30th, 2008 at 1:01 am
If it were going to be a woman with zero foreign policy cred, though, I’d have preferred Whitman.
August 30th, 2008 at 1:02 am
This Comments-not-showing-up glitch is pissing me off.
August 30th, 2008 at 1:02 am
Oh for Christ’s sake. Forget it. I’m goin’ to bed.
August 30th, 2008 at 1:03 am
Word. I’m not diggin’ this spam filter!
August 30th, 2008 at 1:09 am
Alex, Palin supported Buchanan, I supported Perot…many of us protested Bush 1 that year.
August 30th, 2008 at 1:15 am
You protested Bush I in 1999?
Imagine that.
August 30th, 2008 at 1:16 am
#101, ‘96
August 30th, 2008 at 1:16 am
Oh wait, Bush I didn’t run that year either. LOL. I’m stupid. Nevermind.
August 30th, 2008 at 1:16 am
huh? Thanks #102
August 30th, 2008 at 1:18 am
#104
‘96 was still a little late to the party.
August 30th, 2008 at 1:18 am
92
August 30th, 2008 at 1:20 am
#100 Kristofer:
I also supported Perot in 1992. In fact, it was Perot who got me into politics. The first political issue I ever cared about was the deficit. Yeah, I know, I’m weird. And I was 14, so what did I know about trade?
But I agree that for a lot of people, Buchanan and Perot were protest votes that year for right of center voters who didn’t want to vote for Bush.
August 30th, 2008 at 1:27 am
Big S, can we swap email? I would like to talk to you offline.
August 30th, 2008 at 1:30 am
#108
Sorry, I prefer to stay as anonymous as possible. There’s nothing I have to say to you that I can’t express in a few snarky blog comments.
August 30th, 2008 at 1:31 am
spam filter does not allow me to send long posts. I want to send you some info, which I think will make you feel better.
August 30th, 2008 at 1:33 am
#110
Link the source and I’ll read it.
August 30th, 2008 at 1:45 am
Palin has a different take on abortion.
http://www.feministsforlife.org/
August 30th, 2008 at 1:51 am
check out the photo from the 27th in AZ.
http://www.new.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=726884&op=1&aid=32208&auser=24718773587&id=24718773587&ref=mf
August 30th, 2008 at 1:54 am
#107 - At least you had a decent protest candidate to vote for - I find myself wishing I had another choice.
August 30th, 2008 at 1:55 am
Look at these pics.
http://mccainblogette.com/
August 30th, 2008 at 2:26 am
I think it’s interesting how the folks on here who are suddenly attacking Republicans are still here. They’re echoing Daily Kos or MyDD attacks straight from the liberal perspective.
If you guys aren’t going to support Obama perhaps you ought to stop whining. A few weeks ago all I heard was:
“the VP doesn’t matter. McCain is pro-life.”
At least that’s how they tried to sell social conservatives on a liberal like Lieberman.
So let me rephrase your talking points from a few weeks ago:
“The VP doesn’t matter. McCain is pro-war.”
August 30th, 2008 at 2:33 am
To put to rest any questions about the Buchanan connections, look here.
August 30th, 2008 at 2:34 am
D’oh!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9rZkJfKoEU
August 30th, 2008 at 2:55 am
#118, Big S, is that supposed to make me like her less?
August 30th, 2008 at 2:57 am
#118, Did Pat say “She was a fund-raiser for me” or “She was at a fundraiser for me”?
August 30th, 2008 at 8:10 am
Has anyone seen Gallup today?
August 30th, 2008 at 8:12 am
gallup wont come out till about 1pm eastern. rasmussen is due any minute.
August 30th, 2008 at 8:22 am
#96 - re: Whitman. Exactly. This is turning into a joke. They didn’t even fully vet her which is making me very nervous.
August 30th, 2008 at 8:24 am
New Rasmussen has Obama 47%, McCain 43%… with leaners it’s Obama 49%, McCain 45%. Essentially the same as yesterday.
August 30th, 2008 at 8:26 am
This is the kind of stuff I’m talking about when I say not fully vetted. It looks small on the surface but if more and more start bubbling up it’s a problem. I’m not sure why it’s supposed to be a good thing to just ignore it.
August 30th, 2008 at 8:53 am
I spent most of the day warming to Sarah but I’m starting to a) question her intelligence and b) question how dumb she was promoting an inquiry into trooper-gate then finding up she was right in the middle of it.
Interesting times ahead.
August 30th, 2008 at 9:04 am
The other thing I can’t get over is that he met her basically once for what half an hour before making the offer!
He’ll ever be a hero or a laughing stock in 2 short months.
August 30th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
116 - Yeah, but I’m OK with Palin. Even if my worst fears turn out to be true, I’ll vote for McCain-Palin. You threatened to not vote for McCain if he chose Giuliani.
August 31st, 2008 at 11:19 am
Ya,Intrade was dead-on with Biden, at least in the last few days, but completely wrong on Palin. Only one explanation is possible. Democrats are easier to read
No mere speculation tool can understand the mind of a republican!