The Candidates
In her rollout today, Palin spoke a lot about change. McCain is now trying to steal “change” from Obama, a contest McCain will lose in an overwhelmingly Democratic year with an overwhelmingly unpopular incumbent Republican administration. At the same time, he’s weakening his strong suit — readiness vs. unreadiness.
The McCain campaign is reveling in the fact that Palin is a game changer. But why a game changer when you’ve been gaining? To gratuitously undercut the remarkably successful “Is he ready to lead” line of attack seems near suicidal.
Though I’m not a particular Krauthammer fan, I do have some respect for his seriousness as a writer. But, this strikes me as fairly unserious commentary. I am considerably less sanguine about the “is he ready to lead?” slogan and it’s potential to propel McCain to victory. As Jonah Goldberg notes, a very similar line of attack failed Hillary in the primaries. But, I’ll concede for a moment that McCain made up some ground using this meme. How much ground? According to realclearpolitics, McCain went from trailing Obama by 6.8 points at the end of June to trailing by 1.6 points just prior to the Biden selection.
This after the most brilliant and memorable series of ads of the entire cycle; this after a flailing Obama campaign produced a number of listless and unremarkable ads; this after McCain ratched up ad buys, outspending Obama significantly in this respect. It got him all of 5 points and a now respectable 2nd place. But, as Krauthammer no doubt knows, in politics there’s nothing particularly respectable about second place. I happen to think Obama is unusually vulnerable to charges of radicalism (Ayers and BAIPA) and McCain could have made a good deal of progress on that meme, but the stock “unready to lead” attack had already lost much of it’s heft by the time the Democratic Convention rolled around. It simply wasn’t going to bring McCain across the finish line (absent a game-changing, stunningly serious pick like Powell or Petraeus) and Mac understood this.
I think this is true for fairly obvious reasons. Absent signs of criminal incompetence, a majority of voters don’t and haven’t worried themselves terribly over the experience issue. Furthermore, this an economy election, and it’s extremely doubful that McCain could have made it into a security election. There are only so many ads you can run of burning buildings and warzones, in an economy election, before phrases like “fearmonger” and “out of touch” become bywords.
How does the Palin pick address this dynamic? It does a few things quite well, but first I want to address what it doesn’t do: it doesn’t remove the “experience” issue from the table. Any discussion which begins “Is your VP EVEN more experienced then our P” redounds to our benefit. To the extent that this comparison is continually made, and Palin isn’t embarrassing herself on the trail (an admitted big if), it lowers Obama and raises Palin. It’s frankly a stupid line of attack for the Democrats to use, and at some point someone’s going to respond “well, is Barack Obama ready to be President, if God Forbid, something happens to Joe Biden?” This is a comparison we simply cannot lose unless Palin begins to sound meaningfully out of her depth. And I suspect it will be surprisingly easy to keep Governor Palin in relatively controlled settings, until she can be brought up to the speed. The Democrats, after all, have kept Obama behind a teleprompter for more then a year.
Now, here’s what the pick actively does for McCain: it allows him to meaningfully attack Obama’s change mantle. There has always been this peculiar incongruity to the campaign; as a relative outsider, Obama has behaved like a political insider his entire career (extreme partisanship, ducking controversial votes, etc), while McCain, as a relative insider, has behaved like a political outsider his entire career. But, McCain has never been well suited to exploiting this. He’s a member of the incumbent party, which reinforces the insider label. He’s spent 25 years in Washington. All of his best lines of defense only dredge up old wounds and harm his standing with conservatives. For instance, how powerful would a clip from a 2000 McCain v. Bush debate be to independents in this context? Or a clip from 2003 or 2004 of McCain unloading on Bush for the Iraq strategy, juxtaposed with Obama’s “there’s not a whole lot of difference between my position and George Bush’s [on Iraq]“? Pretty powerful, but as The Maverick, McCain does not have the leeway with conservatives to make such an add. Some of George Bush’s luster has faded in those circles, and many of these folks could be persuaded to run away from him for expediency. But, not if it means running to McCain.
W is still more popular with 70% of Republicans then John McCain is. But, they may much more readily divorce themselves from Bush, if they sense they’re marrying Governor Palin. McCain can now run these ads; and he ought to throw in clips of Sarah taking on Alaska’s corrupt Republican establishment while he’s at it. And Independents who had previously defaulted to Obama, because a young black man seems to more vicerally represent change then an old Navy Man, will now take a second look at McCain/Palin. Can they, perhaps, have the actual reform which they sense McCain will bring, without abandoning the sense of “making history”? These are not minor benefits and they potentially allow McCain to eviscerate literally the ONLY argument Obama has for his candidacy. And it seems worth the risks that Palin presents.
August 31st, 2008 at 4:01 pm
http://corner.nationalreview.com/
Camille Paglia is an unorthodox feminist. She is capable of disliking and liking women based on who knows what set of principles. But she didn’t like Hillary and here is what she had to say to the Times of London after watching Sarah Palin’s debut:
“We may be seeing the first woman president. As a Democrat, I am reeling,” said Camille Paglia, the cultural critic. “That was the best political speech I have ever seen delivered by an American woman politician. Palin is as tough as nails.”
August 31st, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Good article.
I was only starting to think, “now that Palin has shored up and energized the base, McCain can run those ads.” And then you made that very point. Palin gives McCain a lot more latitude now with the base. Had he picked Lieberman- God forbid- he would have to spend the next 2 months groveling at the base.
August 31st, 2008 at 4:13 pm
True MWS, True
August 31st, 2008 at 4:13 pm
True MWS, True
August 31st, 2008 at 4:22 pm
“potentially allow McCain to eviscerate literally the ONLY argument Obama has for his candidacy”
and that’s the crux of the matter. If you are not a solid Democrat already, there are two reasons for voting Obama - Firstly, a dislike for the GOP. Secondly, and very importantly, a sense of ‘making history’.
The nomination of maverick McCain has negated the first as much is possible, and Palin helps with this. On the second, the nomination of Palin, utterly, completely pulls the rug from under the Democratic party’s feet.
August 31st, 2008 at 4:35 pm
My advice to mccain would be:
1) Pick ASAP 4 big time cabinet jobs, that would be:
Joe Lieberman for State
Tom Ridge for Defense
Rudy for AG
Mitt Romney for Treasury
By announcing these choices say next week mccain does the maverick thing but also brings back experience element. Those 4 are big time names and each would appeal to segments mccain is gonna need for the W + it boxes out the unreadiness theme dems might use against mccain-palin administration ++ you get more surrogates to hit the trail. Another thing is i’d send palin to do an SNL skit or heck let her host the show.
August 31st, 2008 at 4:40 pm
http://www.kmov.com/video/?nvid=57410&live=yes&noad=yes
August 31st, 2008 at 4:40 pm
McCain is not going to win the “Change” argument, even with Palin. Sorry.
August 31st, 2008 at 4:41 pm
Fantastic article!
Krauthammer is really smart.. I’m surprised he can’t see this.
August 31st, 2008 at 4:43 pm
#8: Oh yes he can. When his and Saracuda’s careers have *accomplished* change and Obama’s and Biden’s have not.
Americans are starting to realize that last point now.
August 31st, 2008 at 5:01 pm
Joe Biden calls Sarah Palin “good-looking”. Oh Joe, you’re going to make this race so much fun.
August 31st, 2008 at 5:06 pm
It’s good to have Huck on our side. Now that there’s almost no chance of him taking over the party (no one beats Sarah Palin in a primary in 2012 if she doesn’t embarrass herself), I want him pretty close to front and center this campaign.
August 31st, 2008 at 5:12 pm
It on C-Span
August 31st, 2008 at 5:12 pm
Thanks for the lonk Paul McCain has been getting huge crowds recently.
August 31st, 2008 at 5:17 pm
#8…he dosn’t have to win it to win the election …just cut into it a little at the margin..like the female vote
August 31st, 2008 at 5:21 pm
With Palin and Bobby Romney is hoping for the old white man ticket I guess.
August 31st, 2008 at 5:21 pm
They’re just repeating their speeches from the last two days.
August 31st, 2008 at 5:25 pm
Which is not suprising I guess untill post convention.
August 31st, 2008 at 5:30 pm
Grr. Spam filter. Anyway, by addressing the Hurricane she reminds folks she’s a Governor (not a Senator), and lets her demonstrate some competence.
August 31st, 2008 at 5:32 pm
#18, Hopefully there will be convention speeches.
August 31st, 2008 at 5:32 pm
Introducing Ms. Palin at a rally Saturday in Washington, Pa., Mr. McCain praised her and spoke about her selection.
“You know, I had a lot of good people to choose from, and I want to thank Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani,” said Mr. McCain, referring to his rivals for the Republican nomination. “And,” he added, “it’s with great pride and gratitude I tell you I have found the right partner to help me stand up to those who have corrupted Washington.”
* * *
I just love how he omitted Romney.
August 31st, 2008 at 5:35 pm
Anyone notice how BO and his minions refer to her as “Mrs. Palin” and not “Governer Palin”?
August 31st, 2008 at 5:43 pm
Metro,
As Jonas Goldberg notes, Krauthammer thought McCain should run with “the surge” at the very center of his message. This seems like terribly poor advice to me. Krauthammer is great at policy, especially foreign policy, but I’ve seen no sign that he’s particularly on political ramifications.
August 31st, 2008 at 5:46 pm
Mrs. Palin
August 31st, 2008 at 5:48 pm
By the way, Joe Trippi, Edwards’ campaign manager in 2004, seems to have the same essential take: http://joetrippi.com/blog/?p=2459
I.e, he believes that the Palin pick is not primarily about drawing female voters, but about allowing McCain to accentuate and frame his Maverick qualities, without losing the base.
August 31st, 2008 at 6:42 pm
anybody have an update on st. louis today. I haven’t been able to find anything on that event. I heard 25000 people were there. anybody care to make a front page thread on it.
August 31st, 2008 at 7:10 pm
#21 Er, you want to read that quote again Metro?
August 31st, 2008 at 7:15 pm
James it went off very well. I have a cousin living in Fenton who drove down to attend the rally. He said the crowd was on fire and really got fired up during Sarah’s speech.
August 31st, 2008 at 7:25 pm
Jonathan Martin has the first post-Palin Obama ad up. If picking Palin has opened up McCain to all sorts of vulnerabilities, this ad certainly doesn’t show it.
If the best Obama can do is say, “never mind Palin, BUSH BUSH BUSH!”, McCain is in pretty good shape.
August 31st, 2008 at 7:33 pm
I am trying to find a link, but did they really get a crowd of 25k? That was only supposed to be a 10k crowd.
August 31st, 2008 at 7:37 pm
I would not be totally surprised if there were that many people. A week ago I asked some people down the street if they wanted to go see Mr. McCain with me in PA. First they said ‘ah, we’re not going to bother.’ As soon as they found out that Mrs. Palin was the pick, not only did we end up going together, more people decided to come with us as well.
August 31st, 2008 at 7:38 pm
Because Senator McCain did not pick my choice, Tim Pawlenty, I will be staying home or
voting for Obama…Okay just kidding! I am very happy about McCain’s choice of Palin and
I believe she is a huge asset because…
1. Obama’s charge that we are “more of the same” is laughable now. She is a far from a
Washington insider as you can get. Keep trying Senator Obama…keep trying.
2. I am anticipating that she will appeal to working voters based on her background.
3. She is a maverick, just like he is. She has taken on her own party, just like him.
4. She brings some diversity to our party. We can’t let ourselves be just the white
male party. Pardon me for playing the gender card, but we must be diverse.
5. Nobody, not even my choice, Governor Pawlenty, could have created the excitement that Sarah
Palin did.
6. Senator McCain proved that he was not afraid to put a woman on the ticket. After the media
disrespected Senator Clinton, and continue to do with Governor Palin, he could have taken the
chicken route and been afraid. He took the risk and hopefully it will pay off.
7. It has already resulted in at least one mild gaffe from the Obama camp and might result
in a few more.
8. Forgive my amnesia, but I vaguely remember some guy giving a speech in Denver last week.
I seem to have forgotten his name however. The press has been so busy with Sarah Palin lately.
If anyone can remember the name of that nice, young gentleman could you remind me?
August 31st, 2008 at 7:43 pm
ngthagg #29: You hit the nail on the head. All we will hear is McCain=Bush
and Palin=Cheney. I think that McCain=Bush got old somewhere around mid June.
Obama needs to talk about himself, not about Bush.
Not trying to be a pollster (and a very unscientific one at that) here, but do we
think that the McCain=Palin=Bush=Cheney line will be effective through October?
Will this still scare voters on Halloween?
August 31st, 2008 at 7:47 pm
Remember me? If you haven’t heard of me, you will. Your VP nominee is about to “go eagleton.”
August 31st, 2008 at 7:48 pm
I think that Mr. Pawlenty would have been a safer choice, but it appears that gamble may be paying off.
August 31st, 2008 at 7:59 pm
And after all this time Ted was right…
August 31st, 2008 at 8:15 pm
36. He would like to come back here and post again if Kavon would un-ban him.
August 31st, 2008 at 8:15 pm
McCain has been changing the game. The choice of Palin puts that change into overdrive. I love this pick, and the nitpickers and worrywarts have been wrong all year, so they are of no account now.
August 31st, 2008 at 8:36 pm
here’s what it comes down to, if you’re on the fence, it’s not because obama has a lack of experience. therefore palin as vp should not cause concern for voters on the fence.
August 31st, 2008 at 8:41 pm
They didn’t even vet her.
August 31st, 2008 at 9:52 pm
#31`- I feel like Mitt was much safer than Tim, and we just don’t know yet on Palin. Time will tell.
Mitt was so strong in the states that counted. I’m not going to be on much I don’t think cause I have nothing positive to contribute and don’t want to sound like a whiner.
August 31st, 2008 at 10:32 pm
IllinoisGuy,
Did you see Mitt at the St. Louis rally? He was revved up and a real Team Player. I’m telling you, Mitt Romney does not care that he’s not the VP. The ticket would have lost, and Romney would have been done for good.
August 31st, 2008 at 11:01 pm
No, I’m going down there to more for a bicyle race, but I’ve lost my free stays in St. Louis since my daughter and family moved to Witchita Falls, Tx. I disagree with you. I still believe Mitt added most in electability. I think its more iffy now that it would have been. I do believe its a better ticket than Pawlenty would have been though. Tim just didn’t add anything in the states that count. I hope we’ll win it. I talked to a really smart guy in Utah today, and he said he’s pretty sure we’ll lose Nevada now. We’ll see what happens. I hope for the best. I don’t want that pinko commie crook in there.
September 1st, 2008 at 8:18 am
Illinois,
I was wondering about you since I hadn’t “seen” you around since the Palin announcement. So far, she’s been dynamite, and has erased the Dems convention bounce.
BTW, I think there could be a place for Romney in a McCain administration. I could see him making a great Sec. of Commerce or Treasury.