The Candidates
I’ve spent the last couple of days feeling out the reactions of various coworkers, friends, and acquaintances over McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate. My anecdotal findings are similar to that of NRO’s Jonathan Adler:
Last night I attended a 50th wedding anniversary party in Austintown, Ohio, just outside of Youngstown. This is Reagan Democrat terrirtory — working class, church-going, union member types. Given this, it was interesting to hear what people had to say about Sarah Palin — and it was almost uniformly positive, very positive. I heard people explain that they were inspired by her life story and career, and that having her on the ticket made the race exciting. Said another — who had never voted Republican until he pulled the lever for Bush in 2004, but was now committed to McCain — “she’s just like us.” I’m well aware that those with whom I spoke may not be representative, but it was interesting nonetheless.
My own findings? Palin plays very well among members of demographic groups that probably voted for John Kerry in 2004. More specifically, folks who are warming to McCain because of Palin are more likely to be female than to be male, tend to be over 50 instead of under 50, are more likely to be Catholic or Jewish than Protestant, and are more likely to live in suburbs or small towns than urban areas.
Incidentally, I do know some folks who are less likely to vote for McCain because of Palin, but these folks tend to be younger, male, and urbane. I have yet to encounter a female voter under age 35 who is moved by the Palin pick, but none seem turned off by the pick either. Palin’s appeal tends to be concentrated among middle-aged and older women, which is a good appeal to have if you’re on a Republican presidential ticket, because those are the voters who actually show up to vote and who often decide elections.
It’s hard to see McCain losing this election if significant numbers of middle-aged suburban women vote for him, and McCain/Palin just feels more culturally acceptable to these women than Obama/Biden. Anyone looking for a blowout either way, though, would be better off preparing for a long election night.
August 31st, 2008 at 2:28 pm
I think this rings true. I’ve already been on the receiving end of several mass emailings by acquaintances who’ve never worked a campaign in their lives.
August 31st, 2008 at 2:39 pm
“Anyone looking for a blowout either way, though, would be better off preparing for a long election night.”
I’m not so sure. Right now, I see this race as ending somewhere between a razor thin Obama win, and a McCain/Palin blowout. I think Obama has established a very low ceiling, somewhere around 50 points are just above. Once the “culture war” started in the 60s, the country has never elected a social liberal with an Ivy league education (aka “elitist”). Carter and Clinton were liberal, but were perceived as good ol’ boys. McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, and Kerry were all perceived as liberal elites from the “other side.” I think consensus is going to harden around the notion that Obama is also on “the other side,” just like Kerry & Co.
August 31st, 2008 at 2:40 pm
…..Palin, on the other hand, is definitely “one of us.”
August 31st, 2008 at 2:40 pm
2. Ditto.
I have been reading comments at NoquarterUSA.net (Hillary supporters/PUMA web site) and they’re organizing ways on how to defend Sarah against the misogamy and smears. And boy, oh boy, are the smears coming.
They’re not going to let the MSM get away with treating Sarah like it treated Hillary.
August 31st, 2008 at 3:08 pm
what does “puma” stand for?
August 31st, 2008 at 3:11 pm
Party Unity my ***
August 31st, 2008 at 3:12 pm
party unity my ass…and i bet its a big ass considering who is complaining…OINK to you PUMA’s…
August 31st, 2008 at 3:18 pm
http://pumapac.org/
August 31st, 2008 at 3:33 pm
For the life of me, I can’t get a comment to post. There’s a new story out on Yahoo News saying Palin was first for the Bridge to Nowhere.
August 31st, 2008 at 3:36 pm
Was a Romney supporter very luke warm on McCain.. as were a lot of people I know. Palin was an exciting pick across the board. The friends I have who were in the tank for Obama have already started parroting the party line about experience, heartbeat away, small town mayor stuff. But they weren’t going to move regardless.
August 31st, 2008 at 3:37 pm
Here’s the link:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080831/ap_on_el_pr/cvn_bridge_to_nowhere
August 31st, 2008 at 3:51 pm
The Gravina Island Bridge was proposed to replace the ferry that currently connects Ketchikan, Alaska, to the Ketchikan International Airport on Gravina Island. The bridge was projected to cost $398 million. Members of the Alaskan congressional delegation, particularly Rep. Don Young and Sen. Ted Stevens, were the bridge’s biggest advocates in Congress and helped push for federal funding.[1] Governor Sarah Palin also supported the project, but canceled the bridge when the Alaska delegation was unable to prevent changes to federal funding levels that more than doubled Alaska’s portion of the bill from $160M (40%) to $329M (82%) of the bridge’s cost.[2]
How can Sarah claim reform in this issue?
August 31st, 2008 at 4:32 pm
http://www.kmov.com/video/?nvid=57410&live=yes&noad=yes
video of St. Louis Event coming up.
August 31st, 2008 at 5:17 pm
I am hearing they didn’t vet Palin very thoroughly. That’s making me very nervous.
August 31st, 2008 at 5:45 pm
#14 Kip,the Washington Post has an article about the vetting of Sarah Palin from the McCain people. Go to;
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/30/AR2008083002377.html
August 31st, 2008 at 6:03 pm
WTF. I live in Austintown, OH!
August 31st, 2008 at 6:06 pm
This is Hillary Country this year, and throw the Reagan Democrat name out, after McCain wins this election, it will be because of the Hillary Democrats…..
I have yet to find a Hillary supporter I know back OBAMA. I do know quite a few not voting for McCain either, but they said they are not going to back OBAMA.
Obama got 32% of the vote in this county, to HRC’s 68%. Kerry/Gore got 62%+ here.
I HIGHLY Doubt Obama will hit 55-57%.
MCCAIN WINS OHIO!
August 31st, 2008 at 6:08 pm
#15 -I hope Rick Davis is not just saying that. No one apparently bothered to talk to Public Safety Commissioner Walter Monegan or went through the archives of her hometown newspaper, the Valley Frontiersman - that’s basic vetting. Some lady name Phillips or something who is the former Republican speaker of the house said everyone was shocked - that no advance team had asked anyone anything. I’m not saying they didn’t vet at all, but, according to the link you gave, he only met her for 15 minutes back in February or something? I am even more nervous now.
August 31st, 2008 at 7:08 pm
Kip, according to Rove and others, Palin was thoroughly vetted by A.B. Culvahouse, who met with her several times over the summer - you can read about Culvahouse at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_B._Culvahouse,_Jr.
August 31st, 2008 at 7:21 pm
#18, that lady is a socialist Republican and is no unpopular, is not running for re-election. She is a parter to Ted Stevens and Congressman Young.
August 31st, 2008 at 7:22 pm
Don’t you guys remember the story that Culvahouse was spotted in Anchorage??? http://wizbangblog.com/content/2008/05/29/alaska-gov-sarah-palin-to-meet-with-mccain-vp-search-team.php