The Candidates
CNN/Opinion Research General Election
- Barack Obama/Joe Biden 49% (47%)
- John McCain/Sarah Palin 48% (47%)
Survey of 927 registered voters was conducted August 29-31. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 23-24 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
Four in 10 Americans are not familiar with Palin. Thirty-eight percent of those questioned viewed her favorably and 21 percent unfavorably.
Men appear to have a slightly more favorable opinion of Palin than women; 41 percent of men view her favorably, five points higher than women.
Americans seem evenly divided on whether McCain made a wise choice in selecting Alaska’s first term governor, who’s been in office for less than two years.
Fifty-two percent rate the selection of Palin as excellent or pretty good; 46 percent rate it as fair or poor.
Is Palin qualified to be president?
Fifty percent say she is unqualified to assume the presidency if that becomes necessary; 45 percent say she’s prepared for the White House.
In recent history, the only running mate to earn less confidence from the public was Vice President Dan Quayle in 1992.
Ultimately however, the Palin pick may have minimal effect on the race for the White House.
Almost six in 10 Americans say Palin’s selection as McCain’s running mate will have no effect on their vote. One in five say it makes them more likely to vote for McCain; one in five say it makes them less likely.
Three quarters of all voters think McCain chose a female running mate specifically because he thought adding a woman to the Republican ticket would help him win in November.
“If McCain was hoping to boost his share of the women’s vote, it didn’t work,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.
“Women now appear slightly more likely to vote for Obama than they did a week ago, 53 percent now, compared to 50 percent. But McCain picked up a couple of points among men. More important, McCain solidified his party’s base with the Palin selection, dropping Obama’s share of the Republican vote six points to just 5 percent now. The Palin selection did not help among women — that may come later — but it did appeal to Republican loyalists.”
August 31st, 2008 at 11:00 pm
Among registered voters. We are ahead with likelies!
August 31st, 2008 at 11:04 pm
Obama is in trouble. We could be way ahead after the Republican primary. The Obama bounce died in 24 hours.
As I said several months ago on this blog, Palin’s appeal is to blue collar voters, not Hillary women.
August 31st, 2008 at 11:11 pm
That’s excellent that McCain is this close immediately after the Democratic National Convention! Obama is only getting 5% of Republicans???!! Great! McCain should pull ahead after next week. I can easily see McCain carrying both Michigan and Pennsylvania. Many voters in these states who are conservative but still voted for Kerry in 2004 will vote for McCain/Palin over Obama/Biden. There’s some anti-Southern bias in the midwest and northeast that hurt Bush in 2004 but won’t hurt the Republican ticket this time around.
August 31st, 2008 at 11:17 pm
in the electoral college i can’t see how Mccain isn’t ahead with these national numbers…if national numbers are this tight he wins NH, OH, CO, NV…game over..he doesn’t even need MI or PA
August 31st, 2008 at 11:39 pm
Did the pollsters automatically think women would just jump on board? Au i’d rather win Michigan and Pennsylvania than New Hampshire(they’re worth more).
August 31st, 2008 at 11:43 pm
Obama will fade in Colorado. His numbers there were inflated by the Convention being held there. The same is true of the Republicans in Minnesota. Their numbers are inflated there. McCain probably has a slight lead in Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia. The Palin pick is going to help him in Iowa too with all the social conservatives there. Montana, the Dakotas, Alaska, and North Carolina are going to quickly be out of reach for Obama. He’ll pull out of those states before October.
Also, McCain polling this well at a time when he should be down 5-10 points shows that many Clinton voters are still not supporting Obama. We need more polls to verify this, but if it’s true, then Obama is going to be a serious underdog to win this election. He’ll need unprecedented turnout from young and black voters to win. If I was running a Vegas betting system, I’d put McCain as a 2 to 1 favorite right now, but it’s still early so we’ll see.
August 31st, 2008 at 11:43 pm
While these numbers appear good the country sees as I feel that Palin was chosen in large part because frankly she has ovaries. McCain skipped over much more qualified candidates to go with Palin when she has no business being on a national ticket. They may win and they may not but the idea of McCain dying in office and leaving her there is rather frightening. Its a lot less frightening the Obama in there but still this is goes totally against what McCain claimed was the most important role of a VP. And the idea that Republicans are playing identity politics is kind of disconcerting.
August 31st, 2008 at 11:44 pm
i would too….but Bush won in the other four (once in NH) and it seems the whole election is coming down to those four plus OH….its just more likely that McCain would be winning in those four given a national poll tie than MI and PA
August 31st, 2008 at 11:47 pm
Obama has polled well among women since forever and will continue to do so. The key swing vote demographic in this contest are men–angry, largely apolitical, white work class men, and since this is a demographic indisposed to follow Harvard trained academics who write multiple autobiographies and describe themselves as “citizens of the world,” this demographic largely accounts for No-Bama’s ceiling in the high forties. But this, dear readers, is precisely the demographic that Gov. Palin reaches.
August 31st, 2008 at 11:49 pm
“Weidenbenner took his spot along the third-base line soon after gates opened at 1:30, a half hour early. Standing in the hot sun for about four hours to see McCain and Palin, who began speaking about 5 p.m., “was worth it,” he said.”
August 31st, 2008 at 11:55 pm
#9 dotan is correct……..Palin talks and looks like a Reagan Democrat, and that is why she was chosen. Only 20% of the media see that.
September 1st, 2008 at 12:36 am
I think Palin will really well among both middle aged men because of her working class domineaner and also her really good looks and the women will love her because of her being a mother of 5 children with the youngest being of down syndrom I really do believe Missouri and Arkansas along with North Carolinia and Georgia are out of obama reach I believe we will win Ohio,Colorado and Nevada so I believe we also can win New Mexico and people forget both McCain and Palin are from the west I think we can compete and do well in Oregan and also Washington as well. Too bad California is so srewed up we might have competed as well there also.
I am wondering how the McCain/Palin ticket would do amoungt the Hispanic voters My wife is really impressed by Palin also and she is Hispanic.
September 1st, 2008 at 1:02 am
could be the beginning of something big, get that gal studying. oct. 2nd, palin could possibly swing the whole election.
more likely, mccain/obama in the town hall final debate will be the biggy. folks seem really pumped. barry hussein may regret not picking hillary the rest of his life.
September 1st, 2008 at 1:24 am
Maybe U2 didn’t know it, but they wrote ‘Beautiful Day’ for November 4, 2008.
September 1st, 2008 at 1:42 am
#6: Palin isn’t going to swing IA. McCain’s anti-ethanol crusade (smart issue normally, but wrong state to execute it in) will still cost him the state the end. NM is still probably going democrat when all is said and done. Most of the 2000/2004 states arent going to change either. The real question is what about CO, NV and NH. Palin or someone else, these were going to be the real toss-ups. Now with her on the ticket, what does that do? McCain can afford to lose NH or NV but not both or CO (assuming the 2000/2004 maps). How does the McCain/Palin team play in southeastern NH and suburban Vegas and Denver. That’s where those states will be won or lost.
September 1st, 2008 at 1:50 am
I am so happy about Palin. And this from a ardent Romney supporter who was praying he would get the VP nod. I was disappointed for about 20 minutes, then accepted that the best pick had been made. Had heard a little about Sarah, was okay with it. I had time to search out her bio before the announcement and then I watched her speak and was won over. I felt happy all day and the next. Still feel energized about it. Can’t believe the Left’s panic and hysteria.
I live in CA. I hope to move back to Indiana in a year and a half (maybe sooner). But it would be great if Romney ran for governor here and won the election and worked his magic here. It’s a huge mess here (in more ways than one) and just the kind of project that Romney loves to tackle.
September 1st, 2008 at 1:51 am
does anyone think it’s weird and curious that at this time, the DNC seems to think that Obama is running against Palin?
September 1st, 2008 at 2:12 am
Secessionist problem?
At 6:00 minutes in-
September 1st, 2008 at 2:36 am
beth, I agree I think it’s the most brilliant maneuver by the McCain camp and if things go well this week…the nation will understand BO’s lack of experiece when compared to the VP Republican Candidate.
I read a quote from McCain today that was pretty genius that I hope he includes it in his speech on… a reporter asked him Does Sarah Palin have the experience to be VP?” and McCain replied, something to the effect, “I really do and I think in time Barrack Obama will have the experience to run for VP of his party as well.”
September 1st, 2008 at 2:40 am
Big S. . . I know you don’t like Palin, but do a little research. The AIP was never a serious seccessionist party. The AIP is a party of independent-minded voters. In Alaska, independents, AIP voters, and non-partisans (like Todd Palin) can vote in Rep and Dem primaries. Alaskans have a strong independent streak. Most of us look at the Federal government with derision for too often trying to keep Alaska out of the hands of Alaskans. Whether it’s ANWR, Exxon, fishing rights, mining, polar bears, etc, the Lower 48, after decades of ignoring the Great Land and it’s Native and non-Native population, tried suddenly to completely control it beginning in the 1970s. It’s no coincedence that oil was discovered about that same time. Party politics in AK is quite different from the Lower 48. It’s kind of like when someone from outside your family says something rude about your mom: you can say anything you like about her, but you won’t stand for outsiders talking bad about her. Here, we may fight amongst ourselves, but we all stand as one against growing Federal encroachment on our state and our rights. It is from this background that Palin and many Alaskans, all good Americans, joined the AIP movement.
September 1st, 2008 at 2:51 am
#20
The stated goal of the AIP is secession. The video is from a conference of secessionist parties.
September 1st, 2008 at 2:52 am
#20
That, coupled with her connections ad admiration for the likes of Pat Buchanan and Ron Paul will not play well in the mainstream here in the lower 48.
September 1st, 2008 at 3:31 am
Is it just me or is this site eating posts/replies? Can someone fix this?
September 1st, 2008 at 3:51 am
Big S. . . It can be argued that the AIP is more mainstream than the current national GOP. Read it’s platform. http://www.akip.org/platform.html
September 1st, 2008 at 4:40 am
Can someone explain why these national daily tracking polls matter? If McCain gains in states he owns anyway, that doesn’t really help us.
They need daily tracking polls for individual battleground states, that’s what I want to see
September 1st, 2008 at 4:48 am
#24
I don’t know what you consider “mainstream”, but look at the party’s stated GOAL:
http://www.akip.org/goals.html
Anyway, the dude was speaking at the Secessionist Conference. I don’t see what else can be said.
September 1st, 2008 at 5:23 am
Big S. . . I’d love to respond but this site eats every reply I type and it’s become a lost cause.
September 1st, 2008 at 7:25 am
Why do you guys respond to Big S?
September 1st, 2008 at 7:55 am
Well, it’s been fun guys, but this site eats every post so it’s a total waste of time. See you in November.
September 1st, 2008 at 8:00 am
yeah, gormley, why don’t we all lace up our jackboots and fall in line lockstep, right? No room for discussion.
September 1st, 2008 at 8:13 am
Any convention bounce the Dems may have had has effectively been wiped out by Palin.
Brilliant. What do all the haters have to say?
September 1st, 2008 at 8:18 am
Oh please let it be Romney in 2012.
September 1st, 2008 at 8:18 am
Joel, (# 25)
Rasmussen Reports did that very successfully in 2004, so I suspect that they will be doing the same this year. Their national daily tracking poll was mirrored by daily tracking polls in all of the battleground states.
I don’t know if you need to buy their premium package to receive this data, but you can access their results from 2004 on their regular site (I think).
Also, Rasmussen switched to tenths of a percentage point after Labor Day in 2004. This made their results extremely more fascinating. You could see the statistical noise much more easily. You could also panic more, questioning whether it was statistical noise or a major shift (similar to what happened to Bush in 2000). These results can be accessed on the site as well.
I do not know if Gallup will be doing individual state polling on a tracking basis. They haven’t even done state polling at all this year (that I can remember).
Enjoy the next two months. It should be fascinating.
September 1st, 2008 at 8:19 am
Sorry guys but I FUNDAMENTALLY DISAGREE that this is a good pick.
I think it’s a horrible pick which will become clear closer to election day when Troopergate heats up and our young Sarah gets deposed, etc.
Anyway you want to argue it she’s simply not ready. And John said that would be his main criteria! Very hypocritical for all of you now to claim that experience doesn’t matter. Objectivly amusing too.
John McCain has effectively given up and so have I. I would be a hypocrite to remain on here when I so strongly disagree so I’m also “resigning” on principle.
Heath will be back for Race42012 though(when Mitt will smash Sarah & Huck and whoever wants to play)!
Thanks
Heath
September 1st, 2008 at 8:21 am
See ya Heath.
September 1st, 2008 at 8:24 am
Dont let the door hit ya on the ……
McCain/Palin - Country First.
September 1st, 2008 at 8:24 am
Stick around, Heath. I don’t think Palin is going to be on the ticket come election time. Don’t be surprised when she “takes herself” off the ticket for “family reasons”.
September 1st, 2008 at 8:26 am
“country first” is rather an ironic theme for a secessionist, dontcha think?
September 1st, 2008 at 8:26 am
It had to be the Mitt supporters. This is delusional.
Romney will not be the VP or President. Ever. He and Huck invalidated themselves. Get over it.
September 1st, 2008 at 8:28 am
did they vett her or not? why are they just going up there now to vett her/ wtf is up with that/
September 1st, 2008 at 8:33 am
Rasmussen unchanged today.
September 1st, 2008 at 8:34 am
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
September 1st, 2008 at 8:35 am
This is silly. Mitt Romney, I think, would be a good President. However, he will never be elected. His unfavorables with independents are too high. This is the reason McCain did not pick him.
September 1st, 2008 at 8:48 am
However, he will never be elected.
Neither will McCain/Palin, which is why mitt is positioning himself for 2012. He’s been a hard worker for McCain and a good sport and gracious runner up. He’s raised money for McCain, but it’s clear Mac ain’t gonna pull it off….his pick of Palin shows that their internal numbers showed how far behind he is. Sorry if the truth hurts, but it’s better than being self-delusional.
September 1st, 2008 at 8:50 am
Voters are entrenched if you think the final election won’t be within a point or two of this your insane.
September 1st, 2008 at 8:54 am
Eagleton.
September 1st, 2008 at 9:02 am
There is a good chance McCain will lose, but that has nothing to do with Romney. Romney would have done much better if he would not have changed his position on so many issues.
September 1st, 2008 at 9:03 am
AC1 - and McCain hasn’t????? at least try to have an honest argument.
September 1st, 2008 at 9:14 am
It may not be fair, but Romney now has a reputation for changing positions and McCain does not. I would be fine with a Romney Presidency. I just don’t think he is electable in a general election.
September 1st, 2008 at 9:32 am
AC1#49
Well, changing positions or not, Palin is a good pick because ….she has NO positions on anything, other than drilling in ANWR. So, the first thing McCain suggests will be good with her., And I forgot, she was ” FOR ” the bridge to nowhere in Ketchikan, before she was against the bridge to nowhere. She was FOR the Sports Arena in Wasilla that no one goes to, before ,…no, she’s still for that.
I’m just kidding guys, BUT, this woman is about to be avalanched by literally dozens of people dredging up everything about her. We have to hope, no PRAY, that she was vetted…or the campaign is down the drain before it even gets going
.
September 1st, 2008 at 9:37 am
Hey, let’s not start going after Romney supporters. Looking around I see most of them embracing Palin.
September 1st, 2008 at 9:45 am
Just a reminder of how aged I am, I remind all of you of 1976.
Republicans had been in office for 8 years and least 3 had been dominated by Watergate. Voters were fed up. Ford was caretaker President, appointed by Nixon with 30 + years of legislative experience. Ford had good foreign policy experience as well as domestic economic expertise. Economy was in the dumps heading to get worse. Ford was lampooned as aged and bumbling by Chevy Chase and others.
Against him runs a youthful ex Governor of Georgia, Jimmy Carter, promising CHANGE in Washington. To balance his relative inexperience on national stage, he picks Walter Mondale, from Minnesota with lots and lots of Washington experience. But they run against Ford vowing that Washigton is broken, we need a new foreign policy, we need an energy policy. We need morality in Government. Ford is too bumbling and makes mistakes like Russian troops in Poland in national debate.
In the 1976 GOP convention , Ford has a floor fight with a vigorous experienced charismatic Ronald Reagan , the ULTIMATE flip flopper, having been a liberal Democrat before he became a conservative Republican. After a fight, Ford considered Reagan as a VP and ultimately went with Rockefeller. Reagan knocked himself out campaigning for Ford who lost. After a brief 4 years with Carter, the country was more than ready to select Reagan over Carter.
Romney will knock himself out campaigning for McCain and Palin. If McCain wins, there will be a Cabinet position. If McCain loses, there will be 4 years to struggle with Obama and then the GOP will have a real shot at winning. Romney should head up the RNC for the next 4 years and probably will, maybe, regardless of the election results.
September 1st, 2008 at 9:52 am
Why do you think she wasn’t eriously vetted? A.B. Culvahouse - in charge of McCain’s VP Committee - spent a lot of time vetting her and meeting with her over the summer.
September 1st, 2008 at 9:57 am
Rombots being entirely at war with reality again. They say the ticket is doomed, but we’re tied after the Obama/MSM lovefest, behind with registered by ahead with likelies. The GOP is supposed to be 10-15 BEHIND at this point in the game.
So not only are they disloyal, but incredibly stupid.
What’s really going on is they are hoping for us to lose, because they know if McCain/Palin wins, Palin will forever erase any chance Mitt Romney ever has (or Huck) of winning a GOP nomination.
She could be transformational. They are divisive.
September 1st, 2008 at 10:29 am
This is realy getting ridiculous…it just proves that Romney supporters are blinded by the cloud of hairspray that follows Romney around. Now I don’t want to ridicule him too much because, unlike his supporters he has moved on and has vigorously dedicated himself to McCain/Palin victory.
September 1st, 2008 at 10:50 am
Metro,
I have never had anyone define transformational for me . Perhaps you could. Transform what to what? What are we “leaving” and where are we going?” What are we transforming from?
And, come on folks. This stuff about 15 points ahead is totally delusional crap coming from Karl Rove and whoever. Every election is the sum total of specific candidates, trends, national and international circumstances etc. Each election is unique. Don’t assume that because we are 5 points behind when we ” should” be 15 points behind, we are really 10 points ahead. The “PARTY is 15 points behind in a generic Rep vs Dem contest. You see that in Senate and House races already. The voters really don’t like Bush. I hate to break it to you.
Lastly, how about giving up on that Rombot crap. It is so juvenile and infantile it does discredit to the transformational argument. If transformational means downsizing your intellect, I’m not for it. Romney will probably help the GOP ticket this fall as much or more than Palin, so get off it.
September 1st, 2008 at 11:10 am
I’m watching CSPAN right now and they’re doing their let’s hear from the callers on who they suport. Every single Obama supporter is well spoken and have coherent thoughts on why they support their candidate. When they go to a caller who supports McCain it is the most incoherent, religious based argument that offers no valid debate on why McCain should be president…unbelievable. I am sick and tired of these liberal “news organizations” using their air time to promote their candidate. Whatever happened to fair coverage?
I really enjoy this site but I also feel there are some very intelligent people on this board and we are wasting time preaching to the choir.
September 1st, 2008 at 11:14 am
#19 - Thanks! I love the McCain quote:
“I really do and I think in time Barrack Obama will have the experience to run for VP of his party as well.”
September 1st, 2008 at 11:16 am
It might be good to compare the policies of the McCain-Palin ticket with the policies of the Obama-Biden ticket. Then maybe support the ticket which you think is better.
September 1st, 2008 at 11:18 am
#54 - Metro - please - I’m a “Rombot” if you like, and was praying that he would get the VP nod, but I have not only accepted McCain’s choice, but am enthusiastically supporting the ticket and talking to people I know about it - I will work hard for this ticket.
Never say all, always or never!!
September 1st, 2008 at 11:24 am
Now we can aergue about the pregnancy of Palin’s daughter.