The Candidates
We finally found our Fred!. Maybe. Sarah Palin may be that great mythical conservative savior- that beast that has seemed to appear, at various points in this campaign, only to fade back into oblivion. First it was Matinee Mitt, and his terrific intelligence and wonderful competence; but he was a “flip-flopper” and more then a little insincere. Then we found Fred! and he gave a good go of it, and brought millions of conservatives hope; but his campaign started late and he was rusty in the beginning, and allowed himself to become the butt of too many practical jokes. Maybe he just didn’t want it. Finally, we met that amiable Preacher from the South, with the aw’shucks grin, the quick wit, and the inspiring stories. He almost stole the show and our hearts, but his long record finally caught up with him. This desire for a conservative savior, and our tendency to jump eagerly for the next “big thing”, worried me then and worries me now. People need a savior, not when things are going well, but when they’re not. And they’ll buy fools gold in lieu of the real thing.
Sarah Palin maybe another example of this. Or she might be something more real. I lean much closer to the latter, but Lord knows I’ve been wrong before. I just hope that folks realize how fragile this whole thing is. I felt that in my gut while watching Senator McCain’s speech; that asking Palin to ignite the base, without turning off independents; to sound competent on foreign policy, while retaining the homespun charm that makes her so endearing; that all this may be too much to ask of anyone. And that the conservative movement, of late, has been too willing to place such burdens on another’s shoulder. Sarah Palin is just one woman; John McCain is just one man.
They’re both remarkable in certain respects; both far more remarkable then their opponents, but nearly everything is stacked against them, and this is a hat trick that they’re trying to manage; a complex, intricate machine with so many moving parts, the science may not permit it to function. Even after Sarah’s remarkable speech and John’s competent one, even after the narrowing polls and remarkable revitalization, I feel a tremendous nervousness. For both John and Sarah, but especially for Sarah. She’s a bright prospect, but she’s still a prospect in many respects, and this aint no beanbag. For every Roger Clemens, there’s a Felix Hernandez or, worse yet, a Ryan Anderson.
Maybe the best we can hope for is a Dwight Gooden or a Mark Prior; someone who holds together for just long enough to accomplish something remarkable and unprecedented, before being returned to the footnotes of history. I’ll hope for that, and I’ll hope for more. I’ll hope for the dream. But, I won’t be anything like comfortable for the next two months. Maybe that’s a good thing; that our politics have suddenly become alot less comfortable, but thoroughly more exciting. Maybe that should describe anything this important.
September 5th, 2008 at 10:19 am
we wouldn’t be conservatives if there wasn’t handwringing, don’t sweat it
September 5th, 2008 at 10:20 am
nice recap, but can we ban any ’savior’ references, lest we offend The One
September 5th, 2008 at 10:24 am
Rasmussen has Obama +1, pretty much all before McCain’s speech, and 2/3 done before Palin’s speech. We will have the lead this weekend.
September 5th, 2008 at 10:26 am
Great post as always MM. Caution is in order.
That said, I am the most excited about being a Republican since Sept. of 2005.
September 5th, 2008 at 10:28 am
This actually feels like the summer of 2000 to me - The anticipation and excitement are through the roof with my friends and family.
And for a McCain ticket - who would have thought it?
September 5th, 2008 at 10:29 am
Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) — John McCain’s campaign expects to leave the Republican National Convention with $200 million in the bank and be able to match the Democrats’ spending in the next two months, an aide said.
September 5th, 2008 at 10:33 am
Brett, since we are comparing moments of elation I will share (in decending order of excitement) the best moments to be a conservative since I started paying attention to politics:
Election night 1994
Election night 1984
Election night 2000
Clarence Thomas selection for SCOTUS
Election night 2004
Harriet Miers replaced with Samuel Alito
That’s how excited I am.
September 5th, 2008 at 10:34 am
The blank spot between the ‘94 election and the ‘84 election is Sarah Palin’s acceptance speech Wednesday.
September 5th, 2008 at 10:35 am
Yes, nobody is perfect, even Mrs. Palin might be wrong as much as 5% of time, (or more even) but while she is not perfect, she appears to have the good qualities of all the other candidates without turning off women and young people.
September 5th, 2008 at 10:36 am
200 Million plus 84 million. Meanwhile, the DNC will probably have about 80-90 million to spend. Which means Obama must spend around 200 million to achieve parity. My guess is, he has 75 million or so in the bank. So he needs to raise just above 60 million a month. Doable? Sure. But, he’s unlikely to break much past that number. And he’ll have to waste alot of days fundraising to manage it, while McCain and Palin are mostly campaigning.
September 5th, 2008 at 10:36 am
Kristofer,
help me understand something about the $$$ in the bank. If McCain is doing the federal matching funds doesnt that mean that any $$$ in the Mccain 4 pres bank account cant be used? is this amount in the RNC bank account?
September 5th, 2008 at 10:41 am
corep: I don’t understand it either. I just got an e-mail from the McCain campaign which said at the end that they could only accept compliance funds since they were taking Federal money for the campaign.
September 5th, 2008 at 10:43 am
Palin was made for TV, I hope they make some commercials with her, although there is always the possibility of Palin overload
September 5th, 2008 at 10:44 am
GMM - I love hoe your mind works. Thanks for the insight!
Election night 1984 -
Is Palin is above this, then WOW - you are happy! and 1994 was a beautiful thing brotha.
September 5th, 2008 at 10:46 am
Michael Reagan on Palin:http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/09/welcome_back_dad.html
September 5th, 2008 at 10:50 am
#11, #12, yes but……
Many of the Obama offices also are the DNC offices. The RNC can spend some $ to support the McCain-Palin ticket. Also;
“However, federal law allows the McCain-Palin Campaign’s Compliance Fund to defray legal and accounting compliance costs and preserve the Campaign’s public grant for media, mail, phones, and get-out-the-vote programs.”
September 5th, 2008 at 10:53 am
I’m not kidding, Woodword’s new book “War Within” criticizes Bush for, among other things, not attaining “world peace.”
September 5th, 2008 at 10:54 am
#16
so bottom line how much of the $200 Mil is in McCains account, not the compliance fund, cause that $$$ we cant spend right?
September 5th, 2008 at 10:56 am
I hate to be a downer, but I don’t think today’s economic news is going
to help much. For some reason, the Democrats are always trusted more
with economic issues (I guess no one remembers the Carter years).
While neither Obama nor Biden have significant economic experience, the
generic built-in trust for Democrats may help boost their ticket with
the release of the employment numbers today.
I want to be wrong, and hope I am, but it’s just the way I feel right now.
/end typical handwringing
September 5th, 2008 at 10:58 am
#18, I cannot remember the total, but the RNC can spend on behlaf of McCain.
Also, keep in mind, they can produce a flyer for Melissa Heart, that attacks Obama. And the RCN can “Get out the vote for GOP candidates” - Generic.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:00 am
I think if Palin gets anywhere near an unscripted interview with reporters, we’re going to be hurting.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:02 am
approx $84MM fed funds… $125MM in RNC… not $200+84, $200 includes the $84
GOP will probably have a tiny edge money wise, but what is great is that zerO has to spend time fundraising, whereas McCain won’t be burdened out of necessity to do so
September 5th, 2008 at 11:02 am
#21, are you serious? Have you watched any of her interviews?
September 5th, 2008 at 11:03 am
AmericanIdeals has been down on Palin for a week now.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:04 am
Palin was amazing on CNBC….that’s where i first saw her. I was electrified right then. She is ‘The Natural’…
September 5th, 2008 at 11:08 am
thanks for the answers on the $$$ issue. i guess I should just find a friendly 527 or PAC and give to them going forward. I know Romney has his APC and Fred has one too. Anyone else I should think to give $$$ to?
September 5th, 2008 at 11:08 am
APC should be PAC
September 5th, 2008 at 11:09 am
oprah just became a big fat anchor around obama’s neck
September 5th, 2008 at 11:15 am
Of course, not all the RNC money will be spent on McCain/Palin. They have an awful lot of House and Senate seats to take care of, and I don’t think it would be wise to put all of their eggs in one basket.
On the other hand, the RNC will be fundraising the next two months as well.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:16 am
Point taken. It took the public about 60 days to reach a state of total Obama fatigue—not the press, just the public. We have 60 days until election day. Only now the environment is far more competitive and complex, and the media is completely hostile to our message and our messengers, so even if we were to be the party of all Palin, all the time, it would be a struggle to get our message out. So I would suggest all Palin, all the time, and struggle like hell to get our message out particularly through local earned media and lots and lots of rope lines and townhalls. Now the DaveG’s of this world might be a little flummoxed about what that message is, but the rest of the US should have no problem.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:17 am
Now that McCain/Palin have amazingly “stolen” the change narrative, now that Iraq seems to be winding down successfully, and now that Obama’s facade is crumbling, about the only bullet the Dems have left in the chamber is bad economic news. Look for them to go after this with full force.
The Dems will try to use the bad economic figures to bump Palin from the front page.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:19 am
Perhaps our front page talent could help the rest of us who still want to help with our treasure by researching 527s or Republican GOTV operations and posting that information here?
September 5th, 2008 at 11:19 am
Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Montana.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oa_0YgSVu7s&feature=related
September 5th, 2008 at 11:20 am
I’ve commented on R408 from time to time, and so I hope y’all will forgive me for making a fairly lengthy comment here.
I’ve been a Republican for close to 25 years. I came of age politically during the campaign of 1980, when the choice couldn’t have been clearer: a sad, incompetent president huddled in a sweater in the Oval Office versus a man who exuded optimism, strength and an undying faith in the rightness of his own cause and the future of America. At only 13 I was hardly old enough to pay taxes, but the simple truths he spoke - that Americans should keep more money in their pockets in order to fuel the engine of economic growth made sense. And that America’s respect in the world could only be earned by moral and military resolve.
I volunteered for Reagan in 1984. I remember painting signs for his campaign kickoff rally in a warehouse in Orange County. We were all teenagers (some pretty hot girls, too!) and it was just a boatload of fun. We were part of something important.
I majored in politics, and went on to get my graduate degree in public policy. While life circumstances diverted me from the overtly political path, I still volunteered from time to time. The last time was for McCain in 2000. I thought he embodied the Reagan legacy more than any of the others (Nancy Reagan thought the same thing, recall)and still believe he was the right candidate for that time. America would’ve been better off if he occupied the Oval Office rather than the diminished man who’s there now.
The thing people forget about Ronald Reagan is that he was deeply steeped in the overarching political battles of our time before 1980. From the 1950s, when he was SAG president, he was a fixture on the political scene. He toiled in the political and policy vineyards for more than 20 years before he assumed the top office.
That’s what so deeply troubles me about the Palin choice. We somehow are assuming that she’s the next great heir to the conservative mantle. Since when have we embraced the cult of the amatuer? And please, don’t give the BS that her experience somehow is equal to Obama’s. That’s part of what infuriates me about Obama’s rise: that he hasn’t earned his place in the political sun, because he hasn’t been engaged in the great policy battles that define 21st Century America. McCain’s line about “scars” rings true to me, because that’s where wisdom comes from - nobody is simply born with great “judgment.” It comes from experience, where your principles collide with reality - there is no other substitute.
We’re turning over leadership of the Conservative movement to a woman of some accomplishment, but whose views on the most pressing political issues of our time - taxes, foreign policy, immigration, etc. are still totally unknown? Simply because she delivered a good speech, and has a cool personal “narrative?’ Have we all gone insane?
This pick is deeply un-conservative, in every sense of the word. I’ll struggle to vote for McCain - I probably will, because I don’t think he’ll die in office. But while Sarah Palin is a fine woman, she also represents the worst of our political culture. And she’s NO Ronald Reagan.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:20 am
You heard it here first (maybe)…..
The Dems are about to switch to an old fashioned class warfare campaign. With McCain/Palin stealing the change mantra AND having the high ground on experience, with Palin dominating the news, and with the coming McCain lead (as soon as the convention is factored in), the Dems only weapon at the moment is a shaky economy.
McCain/Palin HAVE to pre-empt this!
September 5th, 2008 at 11:23 am
McCain ON FIRE on the stump right now!
Way better than last night.
He’s going to win.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:24 am
Matthew, a fair warning on the flavor of the month.
Ambinder has his online independents sounding off on the two conventions. I’ve only read the first two so far, and both still want to watch the debates before deciding. Check it here.
Indies probably remain wait and see, so the FTM risk is a potential pitfall. But the risk is also an opportunity.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:24 am
They should’ve let him speak from an outline last night.
He just said of the Washington lobbyists, “Your Days Are Over! OVER!! OVER!!!!!!!!”
September 5th, 2008 at 11:27 am
Metro,
Is it online somewhere?
September 5th, 2008 at 11:27 am
Metro - agreed… he definatley has kicked things up since last night…
watch online: http://www.wisn.com/video/17400394/index.html
September 5th, 2008 at 11:27 am
HE IS ON FIRE!
EN FUEGO!!!!!!!!!
September 5th, 2008 at 11:28 am
Looks like only four of his 20 indies are cited. Three sounds like a Dem-leaner. Four might be, although also potentially a Paul-type (e.g., anti-war) FiCon.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:37 am
Sarah seems awfully comfortable among that crowd and not at all overawed. I wonder if she should be signing that many autographs though. Autographs seem to cut against the humble, workaday, everywoman image that’s so appealing.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:40 am
#43, she is from Alaska. Alaska, like New Hampshire and other “small states”, it is about retail politics.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:41 am
She’s gotten used to the quick handshaking pretty easily. That’s pretty surprising. Apparently she never addressed a crowd of more then 700 before this campaign, which suggests that she very likely is used to spending alot of time with individual voters. The quick handshake is essential at the national level and it doesn’t seem like it’ll be much of a problem.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:41 am
McCain has to nail obama on his tax plan….its just another rebate and essentially social spending through the tax code…he passed on it last night…its time to take it on straight…the world economy is slowing big time and he needs to be bold and take the initiative on the economy issue
September 5th, 2008 at 11:43 am
Kristofer,
Yeah, but it’s REALLY retail in Alaska. Someone over the Corner was saying yesterday that one of her campaign aides said she’d never addressed a crowd bigger then 700 and they were usually considerably smaller. That’s sit down and have coffee with the voters small. The pacing should be giving her trouble, but if it is, there’s no sign of it.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:45 am
Yuh-huh. Voice comes from no where, argues strenuously that it has been a Republican forever, and then expresses doubt about the ticket etc.
Look for far more of this sort of disinformation appearing on your blogs and in your e-communities in the weeks ahead. Also look for so-called independents interviewed by the media who are really code pinkers or Obama supporters.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:45 am
#45, yes retail politics. There is video of her on a travel show walking from her home to the Government offices in Juneau. You can see how she interacts with people. I will try to find it for her.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:45 am
I will say this much about Palin. I’ve been voting since 1972. I haven’t felt this pumped since Reagan’s last election in 1984. I am actually going to vote FOR Palin as opposed to AGAINST Obama.
If McCain is smart enough to chose her, I feel better about him in the Oval Office.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:47 am
Dave A B: I’ve heard similar complaints about how our national media imagination revels in the so-called Cult of the Amateur. But there’s also a Gingrich-type conservative strain that promotes term limits in order to prevent career politicians from seeking permanent rents.
For people more concerned about amateurism, the GOP ticket is arguably far more correctly balanced than the other.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:54 am
#48 - I’ve been posting to R408 for close to a year. Never seen you before. Just sayin’.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:56 am
you know who wishes they were john mccain right now: bill clinton
‘he chose HER?!? WHY DIDN’T I THINK OF THATTTTTT’
September 5th, 2008 at 11:56 am
#51 - True. But think of it this way: Ronald Reagan first ran for the presidency in 1968, after having been CA governor for all of two years. If, somehow, he would’ve won, do you think he would’ve been nearly the president he was in 1981, when he had 12 more years’ experience under his belt? I certainly don’t.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:58 am
David A B,
One thing I’ll say about Palin on this point: her story, while unusual in certain respects, and perhaps “amateurish”, and small-scale, has some important and positive precedents. It is my firm opinion that lifelong politicians; folks who never do anything else; who don’t have a broad range of experiences, make poor Presidents. History is fairly kind to this view. Perhaps my 4 favorite Presidents- Abraham Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, Harry Truman, and Ronald Reagan fit in this mold. Abe and Teddy had less then 6 years of elective experience when he became President. But, he had a number of interesting jobs that boded well for his prospects; he was a Sheriff in the Old West, he was a Police Commissioner, and a Civil Service Commissioner. He was a war hero and an Undersecretary of the Navy. Lincoln was a prairie lawyer and a one term congressman, who was well-known, prior to the Lincoln Douglas debates, for his ability to tell a good story, and his interaction with the people. Harry Truman worked a bank and didn’t get a college degree. And we know Ronald Reagan. It’s true enough that Palin’s resume isn’t traditional; that being a mother, a hunter, a commercial fisherwoman, etc don’t automatically lend themselves to good governance. But, I tend to think they remind politicians where they came from, who they serve, and the importance of the journey. That’s something that goes to the heart of the American spirit, and it’s something Joe Blowhard Biden couldn’t learn with 100 years in the Senate.
September 5th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Re #7 Moments of Elation
Election Night 1966…when Reagan beat Pat Brown to become the Governor of
California. Forgive the nostalgia. I was a college freshman who did some
ground work for the campaign. Special moment.
September 5th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
matt… lol.. what Bill Clinton must be thinking about all of this is anyone’s guess, although most have already figured it out
September 5th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Looks like Mac is getting a little bounce on In-Trade.
Barry 56.5
Mac 42.3
September 5th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
the problem is that, just like everyone else you mentioned, there are big problems with Palin as well. She may not be a flip-flopper or have a reputation as being lazy, but her lack of experience really worries me.
September 5th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
MarkG - might that be one of the focus groups infiltrated by Code Pink?
http://www.riehlworldview.com/carnivorous_conservative/2008/09/dont-look-now-a.html
September 5th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
Na, Lucy, although the ABC/Detroit Free Press dupe sure is funny. Too bad they probably won’t ever provide a correction…
September 5th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Tread carefully. The proverbial “crap” is about to hit the metaphorical fan.
September 5th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
#55 - I don’t disagree. But in all the precedents you cite, the people were well-steeped in the great issues of the day. Lincoln was a congressman, sure, but the reason he was the Republican standard-bearer in 1860 was because he emerged as the Republican with the most knowledgeable, compelling argument on slavery. Truman was a county commissioner and a US Senator, who successfully stopped rampant war profiteering through a series of nationally-broadcast hearings, before he became VP. Teddy, as you say, oversaw the Navy when it transitioned to the dreadnaught/battleship era. And Reagan, as I mentioned, was in the public eye for 25 years before he was elected.
Sarah Palin has a nice personal narrative and some legitimate accomplishments, but nothing that could prepare her to be president. And truthfully, that’s all a VP needs to be - ready to lead on a moment;s notice.
September 5th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
#59 act-blog, thank you for making that point AGAIN. Anything new to add?
September 5th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
I agree, Matthew. I think we are seeing the peak right now, but Palin does have to debate and show substance, just like Obama is experiencing. There is a ton to be concerned about. Just as Obama has seen his celebrity status decline, Palin will likely experience this.
September 5th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
i dont think you want sarah palin to be the next doc gooden. unless you want her trading nuclear secrets for blow..
September 5th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
“#59 act-blog, thank you for making that point AGAIN. Anything new to add?”
Just one more thing: I really, really, really love Mitt.
– act-blog
September 5th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
After watching and cheering the past three days an important realization settled in. The two candidates who grace the blue and white political signs are right for the Republican Party. Neither, alone, are perfect for every facet of our divided, party ideals BUT together they meld into the closest political icon we have seen since The Gipper said his farewell address many, many Januarys ago.
September 5th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
JerseyRepublican,
I think that’s an interesting comparison; except this time the conservative star is at the bottom of the ticket, and the tested “moderate” is at the top. That said, I still think the Reagan allusions are premature. I just don’t want to set myself for a big disappointment.
September 5th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
I can’t help but think about how different this country and our party would be right now if Reagan was around, after his Presidency, to champion the Republican movement…to champion that “beacon of light.”
September 5th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
An interesting point, Jersey, but it might well have made little difference. Bill Clinton has not been able to keep his party on the moderate DLC path.
September 5th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
That’s true, Bob, but I think Reagan was America’s motivational speaker whereas Bill Clinton is his own motivational speaker and used his talents to sell why he was great for the country as opposed to why America is great for the world.