September 5, 2008
Poll Alert: Gallup Daily Tracking Poll (9/5)
Gallup Daily General Election Tracking (9/5)
- Barack Obama 48%
- John McCain 44%
Survey of 2,730 registered voters was conducted September 2-4. The margin of error is ±2 percentage points.
http://race42008.com/2008/09/05/poll-alert-gallup-daily-tracking-poll-95/trackback/
September 5th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
McCain probably lead the polling for Thursday night by a small margin or it was about tied.
September 5th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
McCain beat Obama’s rating by 500,000
McCain speech beats Obama by 500,000 views…
MCCAIN SPEECH 10-11:15PM
FOXNEWS 9.1MILLION
NBC? 8.7 MILLION
ABC: 6.0 MILLION
CBS: 5.3 MILLION
CNN 4.8 MILLION
MSNBC 2.5 MILLION
September 5th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
The Palin bounce will hit tommorrow and it will be a tie…
September 5th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
The cards are so stacked against us. But that these polls are so tight in spite of the decline of the Bush presidency, in spite of our banking and mortgage crises, in spite of our crashing dollar and tanking economy, and in spite of a messianic counterpart upon whom the press corps shamelessly dotes and whose interests it jealously defends, is testament to the political skills of one man, Sen. John McCain.
Thank you Senator for making this a real contest despite all the odds.
September 5th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
The Palin bounce is there. A net 3 point gain is excellent for 1 night.
September 5th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
#5. It just started.
September 5th, 2008 at 4:09 pm
McCain’s going to get a bounce from his speech as well. I think Obama will have a slight lead tomorrow still, but it’ll be tied by Sunday.
September 5th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
Not sure. I got slammed at Hedgehog Report for saying this but here goes. I have Obama winning both Ras and Gallup last night. He had a huge night on Monday roll off of both polls and that was the cause of the bumps. 538.com (yes, I know he is a lefty) has estimates of the daily numbers and they differ by mine by a few points, but we both agree Obama won last night in both and Mac’s only winning night in either is Tues. in Ras. We both have Obama’s best night in both as Weds. which will come off in Sunday’s report.
If our estimates of Monday’s horrible samples for McCain are correct, Mac should have bumped more in both if he had a winning night Thurs.
September 5th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
I guess we will have to wait until Saturday or Sunday poll numbers are publicized to see what the state of the race is.
September 5th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
tanda, it is impossible for McCain not to have won last night. Obama was ahead in Gallup by between 6-8 four five days.
There were not days proir to today where Obama was not ahead, thus least night, had to be a McCain win.
September 5th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
Nice to have this poll back on the page. Thanks!
September 5th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
Here’s another example of why I hate the liberal media. Another example of savaging a 17 year for political gain:
“She had been looking forward to supporting McCain as a fiscal conservative with a deep understanding of foreign relations. But all she could now see was that picture of Palin’s pregnant 17-year-old looking defiant and stupid as she held mom’s fifth baby.”
-Froma Harrop
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/09/dont_they_have_birth_control_u.html
I really, REALLY hate the MSM.
September 5th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
The above link is also another example of the liberals’ larger war against children. They absolutely HATE IT when people have children.
September 5th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
Jah. Me too. Here’s a great way to channel that rage. Go to your local GOP campaign headquarters and ask how you can help.
September 5th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
Tom,
“I guess we will have to wait until Saturday or Sunday poll numbers are publicized to see what the state of the race is.”
Actually, the full impact of the Convention won’t show until Monday, which will have results from Fri. Sat. and Sun.
September 5th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
14. Did you see Conan O’Brien’s jab at Bristol Palin? It’s disgusting:
“During Sarah Palin’s speech last night, she spoke proudly about being a hockey mom. It’s unknown what positions her kids play, but one of them isn’t very good at protecting the crease.”
I think we should boycott his show.
September 5th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
dotan,
Excellent idea. After the Palin annoucement, I volunteered on McCain’s site to go door to door and make calls. Trouble is, I live in Illinois, so I can understand if they don’t waste time following up with me. But I could support locals…..
September 5th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
#13 using supposed conversation with an anonymous republican friend is a very underhanded way to insert one’s own opinion or subversive narrative into the article.
The author has plausible deniability, “I didn’t say it, my (imaginary) friend did.”, “I didn’t call her daughter stupid, my friend did”
Just shameful stuff.
September 5th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
Hearmeroar,
You are right. That is absolutely beneath contempt. Since he works for one of the Big 3 (NBC I think?) he need not worry about his job.
September 5th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
Joel,
Very good point.
September 5th, 2008 at 4:43 pm
I kinda’ liked Conan, although I never really watch his show. I think if I ever met him now, I’d punch him in the teeth.
September 5th, 2008 at 4:58 pm
Our brothers and sisters on radio, television, and in print have declared open war in support of Barrack Obama. We all know this. And well know that the better we perform, the more bitter and hurtful they will become.
A more effective response than boycotting television programs is to work to elect Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin and whatever Republican names appear beneath theirs on your ballot.
September 5th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
MWS. Have you seen this? Obama’s support among moderate evangelicals has tanked, and continues to tank:
http://blogs.wsj.com/politicalperceptions/2008/09/05/obama-is-losing-support-among-moderate-evangelicals/?mod=googlenews_wsj
September 5th, 2008 at 5:05 pm
http://www.wxyz.com/content/video/stream.aspx
September 5th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
Ok, haven’t reviewed my daily history, so this is of-the-cuff guesswork. As Sen McCain’s # has bounced back & forth between 42-43% for the last several days, it’s pretty likely the actual number is pretty close to that (to be “conservative,” let’s say he was at 43%). Sen Obama’s #s have hovered at 49%, with one blip below to 48% and one blip up to 50%. He’s probably around 49%.
Now, what does the movement tell us? Sen Obama’s downward trend could indicate a stable result of 48% the last 3 days, with the assumption a good day put him to 50% before. Sen McCain’s upward trend indicates at least a 4% upward movement, to 47%. It could also mean as much as a 10 point move (unlikely on a single day) to 53%. I think it more likely to be closer to the 4% than 10%. Regardless, Sen McCain has a good chance to have tied or led on the most recent day. I’d look to see more movement tomorrow.
Once I get the chance, I will review my prior daily #s and post my calc.
September 5th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0SODIFZXIPA
September 5th, 2008 at 5:19 pm
It’s not the national I care so much about as OH, PA, MI, FL and CO. When will more recent polling that shows the RNC bounce be released?
September 5th, 2008 at 5:21 pm
#12 - That Froma Harrop column is probably - hyperbole aside - the single most despicable piece of journalism I’ve ever read. What a malicious, bitter troll that woman is. I’ve got another word to refer to her with, but it’s a little spicy for this site (and it ain’t the b-word). Unbelievable.
September 5th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
#10 No, it isn’t “impossible for McCain not to have won. I believe Obama won yesterday by 1.5. It’s a 3-day rolling average and a very good day for Obama (9/1) dropped off in combination with McCain gaining a bit of ground. You don’t know what you’re talking about in regard to how these polls work, Kristofer. Tanda obviously does. I think on the 9/1 polling Obama was up by as much as 9.7-10.2. Perhaps even more.
September 5th, 2008 at 6:06 pm
HearMeRoar,
Not only does Conan work for NBC, but in perhaps what will go down as the worst programming decision in broadcasting history, Conan will be taking over The Tonight Show for Jay Leno starting next year.
That joke is awful and you can be sure if it was made by a conservative about a liberal it would end that comedian’s career.
September 5th, 2008 at 6:06 pm
My estimates for last five nights are 3, 8, 1, 12, 5 margins for Barry. Thus, his margins were 4, 7, 6. Most recent to oldest.
September 5th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
I think that’s about right, tanda. Pretty close to what I was thinking - I didn’t have 9/1 that high but it works out about the same. That was definitely a HUGE day for him and that’s the day that just rolled off.
September 5th, 2008 at 7:36 pm
dotan,
I hadn’t seen that. Thanks.
September 5th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
C’mon Conan may be uncouth but that’s what he’s paid to do. McCain called Chelsea Clinton a dog or something when she was 14. Was that his job? Fair’s fair.
September 6th, 2008 at 1:08 am
Ancient history, Joey. McCain apologized profusely for that. And now he and Chelsea Clinton get along famously. They attend poetry slams together in Arlington.
September 6th, 2008 at 10:16 am
Ok, the highly (un)anticipated review! I have the last daily results being 48-44…for Sen Obama. All told, however, this isn’t a bad position for Sen McCain to be in. The debates should be very interesting.