The Candidates
Rasmussen Daily General Election Tracking (9/6)
- Barack Obama 46%
- John McCain 45%
With Leaners
- Barack Obama 49%
- John McCain 46%
Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)
- John McCain 58% / 41% (+17%)
- Barack Obama 56% / 43% (+13%)
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points.
September 6th, 2008 at 11:20 am
It is a shame that the bounce is stalled, but at least we are winning the favorable war.
September 6th, 2008 at 11:48 am
I don’t think the bounce is “stalled”. Scott Rasmussen said he didn’t expect to see the bounce until Tuesday. The interruption of the convention by Gustav certainly put things on hold a bit, but I believe the pollsters have taken that into account. At least they’re saying they did. I guess all we can do is wait and see.
September 6th, 2008 at 11:54 am
Disappointing.
September 6th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
-3 for McCain is hardly disappointing when you consider it takes a couple of days for the bounce to manifest. Wait until Monday’s polls to decide whether or not to be disappointed.
Where were the Kerry/Bush poll numbers 1 week after the conventions? That would be an interesting comparison I think.
September 6th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
I don’t expect to see any bounce until Monday, but my biggest disappointment is McCain now only ads 1% when leaners are included, while Obama now ads 2% to 3%. Before the Palin announcement, when leaners were included, McCain added 2% to 4%, this tells me that undecideds will now vote for Obama, not McCain, which is a big and worrisome change.
September 6th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
Gallup
O-47
M-45
September 6th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
My prediction before the conventions/VP picks was that when they were over, we’d be right back to where we were — pretty much tied. So I’ll claim a win.
Now, with self-congratulations over, I’ll be a bit more serious: I think Victoria (and Scott Rasmussen) have it right — we’ll see the full effects of McCain’s convention bounce early next week, just as we saw Obama’s bounce in full on the first couple days of this week.
September 6th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110047/Gallup-Daily-Obamas-Lead-Shrinks-Points.aspx
September 6th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
From Gallup
“The interviewing for today’s report partially reflects public opinion following the highlights of the Republican National Convention on Wednesday and Thursday nights when McCain and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, made their acceptance speeches. This includes a strong night for McCain in Friday’s interviewing, the first full night of interviewing following his acceptance speech.”
September 6th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
obama’s bounce didn’t show up until tuesday after the convention. a 1/3 of the people polled still came from before palin’s speech.
wait until tuesday.
September 6th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
Gallup — Obama + 2 …. the McCain/Palin bounce is happening…It was +7 what, 2 days ago?
September 6th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
Re rasmussen, I know it is traditional here to look at it with ‘leaners’ but i would look at it without. I think the leaners are the ‘likely voters’ who actually don’t turn up at the polls, for the most part.
September 6th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
Anecdotal: I had dinner with friends last night. They are people of blue-collar background who follow the news, but are not immersed in politics. I knew that they were undecided, but with a small leaning toward Obama (or, more precisely, away from McCain and from Republicans).
As of last night, they were fully-committed Sarah-philes — just bubbling over with enthusiasm for her speech.
September 6th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Likely dailies on both Ras and Gallup look like they’re in a virtual tie. Enthusiasm is certainly up on the Rep side, and apprehension is present on the Dem side. There’s a long way to go, but it seems we have momentum on our side on this one.
September 6th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
I had the same experience. A woman that I know, who has not been interested in politics for decades, announced that she was excited about the election process again. She was enthusiastic and has switched from leaning Obama to certain McCain.
September 6th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
For historical reference, on 6 Sept 04, the Rasmussen Poll was:
Bush 48
Kerry 47
September 6th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
The historical reference should not be a particular date but the day after the GOP convention in 2004. Again, Monday and Tuesday will be the true post-convention state of the race.
September 6th, 2008 at 3:31 pm
I was undecided whether to look at the same date, the same day of the week (first Saturday of Sept), days after convention, or days before the election.
So I took the easy one and used same date.