September 7, 2008
Poll Alert: Gallup Daily Tracking Poll (9/7)
Gallup Daily General Election Tracking (9/7)
- John McCain 48%
- Barack Obama 45%
Survey of 2,765 registered voters was conducted September 3-5. The margin of error is ±2 percentage points.
http://race42008.com/2008/09/07/poll-alert-gallup-daily-tracking-poll-97/trackback/
September 7th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
Woo Hoo!!
This is much better than I expected.
September 7th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
This is the best Gallup polling for McCain in 4 months.
September 7th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
Palin Power!
September 7th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
McBoom
September 7th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
Tomorrow may hit 50.. *fingers crossed*
September 7th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
Palin Mania.
September 7th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Game. Set. Match. (As long as Palin doesn’t make any gaffe in the next two months.
September 7th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
I have last three nights as +6.8, +5.6 and -3.4. So, Obama’s winning night rolls off. If McCain wins by 3, he should be leading by five tomorrow. I think McCain hit about 51% last night.
September 7th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
Also, I think he has averaged 50% the last two, so if he polls 50% tonight, he might hit 50% overall.
September 7th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
Let’s. Go. Mets!
And Big Mac!
September 7th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Conducted September 3-5
Palin spoke on the 3rd
McCain spoke on the 4th
Now, when a couple of old days roll off…Not to get too excited yet, but it sure looks good.
September 7th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
Awesome news!
Bear in mind Republicans polls a few points worse on the weekends, so we may have to wait until late in the week to see a 5+ point lead.
September 7th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
For the first time in this election, I think McCain is plainly ahead.
September 7th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
Well, that explains it. I thought the talking heads and Democrat surrogates were a little beside themselves with McCain hatred and anti-Palin vitriol this morning. Where’s the joy, guys? Where’s the love? Go back to chanting about change and how the goodness that flows from your compassionate hearts will heal our divided nation. When you let your fangs show you sort of give away the whole show.
September 7th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
Obama is obviously scared…The triangulation continues…
Obama May Delay Rescinding Tax Cuts
September 7th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
Barack Obama ‘wanted to join US military’
Barack Obama has said he considered joining the United States military when he left school but decided not to because the Vietnam war was over and “we weren’t engaged in an active military conflict at that point”.
September 7th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
I am pretty surprised by this, and recalculated the last 4 days on this move. From current to oldest, I had the following margins (+5, +2, 0, -7), with the last day being 50-45%. Sunday’s tend to favor Sen Obama this election, so don’t expect to see Sen McCain make much, if any, ground tomorrow.
Tanda, I’m not sure how you’re calculating your margins, and where you’re getting the decimals from. Care to share your method? I started June 21 (because we had the same #s 3 days running, meaning I could be pretty sure of the #s for 3 days running), and moved averages on the basis of the daily result being as close to the average as it could and still produce the average. I also look for odd results repeating (if every 3rd day is consistently larger than the other 2, for instance, there’s likely a problem) and adjust to smooth it out (and stay within the averages).
September 7th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Aron,
Utterly bewildering. Obama said something similiar earlier this year; he said something like “well, I didn’t serve because there was no draft”. I was shocked by the statement then and couldn’t understand why it wasn’t getting bigger play. This is only a mildly better version of the story. He didn’t join the military. That’s no crime; I haven’t either. Over 280 million Americans have never joined the military. So man up and say that: say “I didn’t join, because it frankly didn’t cross my mind mostly, and when it did it seemed like something scary, and this is something that voters should count as a plus for McCain and a negative for me”. But, I doubt the press makes a big deal about it. When Romney lamely answered that he regretted not joining the military, I seem to recall it being a pretty big talking point. But, then, Romney’s a Republican.
September 7th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
Talk about a conventin bounce….mwa hahahahahahahahahahaha
September 7th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
#16, Barack wanted to join the military? LOL!!!
September 7th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
My back of the envelope calculations have McCain up about 7 in last night’s sampling. Simply stunning.
September 7th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
# 15 Aron Goldman
Hey, I also considered joining the army when I was getting out of high school. I even visited the recruiter’s office. (I can’t help but wonder if Barry went that far.) I decided that the army path did not match up with what I wanted to do with my life.
I guess Barry thinks that that qualifies me to be Commander in Chief.
September 7th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
Talk about a convention bounce….mwa hahahahahahahahahahaha
September 7th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/09/07/palin-to-do-first-television-interview-on-abc/
Palin will do interview with Charlie Gibson.
September 7th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
Another Bob, also keep in mind that Gov Palin’s speech on the 3rd wouldn’t show up in the polling taken on the 3rd (as the vast majority of their polling took place before she gave her speech). Same for Sen McCain’s speech.
September 7th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
TarheelRepublican,
Come back on here on Tuesday or Wednesday to really see the bounce in fruition! McCain will be up by 7 or 8 when all is said in done IMO.
September 7th, 2008 at 1:47 pm
“Barack Obama ‘wanted to join US military’”
This is from The Onion, right?
September 7th, 2008 at 1:47 pm
Obama’s statement on wanting to join the military deserves it own frontpage post.
Look for it in a moment.
September 7th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
Obama is bragging that he once CONSIDERED joining the military…wow. McCain needs to HAMMER him on this.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13217.html
September 7th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
a quick break from the NFL games … Go Sarah Go !!! … now back to football!
September 7th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
It sure makes life easier to be running against such a lightweight. Hillary would never make such idiotic statements.
I love that the Dems have a tradition of nominating losers like Barack.
September 7th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
unexpected numbers for me, a pessimist I suppose. McCain better take this election to the bank, I want to forget about Obama forever.
September 7th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
At McCain’s event in New Mexico the other day, an old man had a homemade sign that said, “I’m voting for Sarah, and the old man too.”
What an amazing pick she has been. If she can hold up for another few weeks then America’s perception of her competence will be permanent enough that she won’t really be able to hurt the ticket. In October it will be all top of the ticket and McCain wins that battle as well.
September 7th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
Not that I think the Presidential race is over, but it would be great if we could get some front-page posters to start posting about House and Senate races.
I feel confident enough about McCain/Palin that I think we can at least speculate about potential coattails, and what kind of legislature they may have to work with.
September 7th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
getting a little overconfident I think. The odds are still stacked against the republicand this year. It will ve an uphill struggle. This race is far from over.
September 7th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
Stephanopoulos Steps in to Correct Obama’s Faith-Based Freudian Slip/Gaffe…
Oh, how Hannity/Thompson-like…
Obama: ‘My Muslim Faith’
September 7th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
Obama mentioning “my muslim faith” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3qotHTtr30I
September 7th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
I know almost nothing about Charlie Gibson, but I’m pretty pleased that A.) They’re giving the interview to someone outside the Conservative orbit, but not a hack, and B.) They’ll have managed to hold her back for nearly two weeks without igniting significant backlash.
September 7th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
31
“Hillary would never make such idiotic statements.”
Three words: Bosnia Sniper-fire
Wait is that two words?
September 7th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
DSkinner, I’m thinking that Gov Palin only has to hold her own against Sen Biden, a task she’s more than capable of doing. If she does that, she won’t hurt the ticket. As time goes on, she seems more and more a solid pick for Sen McCain.
September 7th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
We should leave the Muslim stuff alone; thus far that stuff has been relegated to the scant lunatic right-wing sites like FreeRepublic, making Barry’s assertions absurd on their face (as Stephie points out). We don’t need to give him ammunition. You don’t fall into traps/change the subject when you’re in an upswing.
September 7th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
Matthew, I agree. However, when you look at the Obama slip on “my muslin faith” the last split-second of the YouTube video you do see him look off into space after Stephy corrects him and see him thinking to himself, “oh sh*t.”
September 7th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
gonna keep going too, tuesday the bounce should peak
September 7th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
Matthew,
Agreed. I should have included the Seinfeldian addendum: “Not that there’s anything wrong with that…”
The issue, however, is the continued deception from Obama and his campaign that Barack was never a practicing Muslim; when, in fact, he most certainly was between the ages of six and ten while living in Jakarta with his mother and Islamic stepfather. It says on Obama’s website:
However, he was registered as a Muslim in both of the schools he attended in Indonesia, was required to take Koranic studies, occasionally going to the local mosque with his stepdad. In an interview earlier this year with the New York Times, “Mr. Obama recalled the opening lines of the Arabic call to prayer, reciting them with a first-rate accent. In a remark that seemed delightfully uncalculated (it’ll give Alabama voters heart attacks), Mr. Obama described the call to prayer as “one of the prettiest sounds on Earth at sunset.””
September 7th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
It’s a shame that this matters to so many voters that Obama has to hide what his parents forced him to do when he was a child.
September 7th, 2008 at 2:41 pm
Aron,
I think you bring up a good point. When exactly did Obama convert to Christianity? He has stated that Reverend Wright is the one that converted him, but at what age? If it was in his twenties, then exactly what was his religion between the time he lived in Jakarta and then?
These to me are all excellent questions that someone should be asking. They are relevant to me, if for nothing else but to get a better sense of the man, his beliefs and his background.
I suspect though that if he reveled the truth many many voters would be turned off from him.
September 7th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
I’m sure this lead will go back to a tie eventually, but don’t forget. Bush’s never diminished. He held that lead for 2 months after the Convention!
Let’s hope he stays up 2-3 points in the other polls like CNN-FOX-NBC-etc…. Should be fun!
I still think you add +2 to the GOP ticket come election day!
September 7th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
Better question about the Obama “My Muslim Faith” comment…
Why is he in a barn?!
September 7th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
I like the idea of starting to post some House and Senate race info. Maybe pick 1 day per week to be House Races day and another to be Senate Races Day. Perhaps even Governorship Day as well.
Just a thought.
September 7th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
I like the idea of starting to post some House and Senate race info. Maybe pick 1 day per week to be House Races day and another to be Senate Races Day. Perhaps even Governorship Day as well.
Just a thought.
September 7th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
Richard,
I do the same as you except I use 4-5 starting points when the race was fairly stable and maintain 4-5 sets of estimates and use the average of those 4-5. It avoids relying on just one guess point and smooths the results.
I do the same for RAS but have access to the internals that allow me to be a bit more precise.
September 7th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
Is anyone else worried about the dems ressurecting the Torricelli gambit from 2002?
Biden will announce that because of his anuerysma dn consultations with his doctor, being VP and the stress of campaigning is a threat to his health and his family. He regretfully steps down while still supporting Obama fully and offering to serve as his secretary of state.
Obama graciously and painfully accepts his decision, and reaches out and puts Mrs Clinton on the ticket
September 7th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
Jim,
What if Zero steps down and Hillary heads the ticket?
September 7th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
Thought you might like to know that CSPAN is airing Palin’s 2006 debate tonight.
Today at 6:30pm (ET) on C-SPAN
RWH: 2006 Gubernatorial Debate with Sarah Palin
September 7th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
The tide begins to turn.
September 7th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
I also think giving Palin’s interview to Chuck Gibson is a shot at Obama and the dems. If you recall, Gibson moderated that debate in Philly before the primary where Obama totally self-destructed. It was the only debate where they actually challenged Obama. Gibson actually challenged him on taxes and foreign policy and Iraq. Steph on Bill Ayers and Wright and others. Obama did horribly and lost in PA by 10.
After the debate, all of Obama’s leftist minions in the blogosphere and the media went ape.
Don’t think Schmidt and Davis dont remember that and are just twisting the knife further by giving Gibson and ABC the huge get.
September 7th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
Yes personally I’ve noticed ABC in general, though still a touch left-leaning, to be more ‘fair and balanced’ than CBS and NBC. I give them some credit for that.
September 7th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
Holy Crap!
September 7th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
This resurgence is without the benefit of the American electorate realizing the potential damage of Obama’s taxing, spending, and regulating plans on our future. Similarly, McCain has a number of barely noticed ideas for improving the economy that are truly impressive, including his goal of reducing the corporate tax rate to make us more competitive. Americans need to realize why jobs are leaving the U.S. McCain should win this election, but the key is still the industrial Midwest….so the focus of the campaign needs to be on economic revitalization.
September 7th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
So, is the time for the right to start rumor campaigns that the Dems are getting pull an “Eagleton” on the top of their ticket?????
Panic!!!!!!!!!!!!
September 7th, 2008 at 5:41 pm
Panic!!!!!!!!!!!!
So, is the time for the right to start rumor campaigns that the Dems are getting pull an “Eagleton” on the top of their ticket?????
September 7th, 2008 at 5:43 pm
Mathew Miller,
I am not willing to leave the muslim thing alone. You could interview me every way from Sunday and I’d never mistakenly say, “my muslim faith.” That’s not just a slip of the tongue.
We are at war with Islamic terrorists.
It’s a big deal to me.
September 7th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
Actually, i agree with Marie. Obama was definitely a Muslim by parenthood until 10 or 12 or so, then he was converted to Christianity (by the esteeemed Rev. Jeremiah Wright) when he was what, 25 or so? I’m not sure….So what did he believe while he was in college? Was he a Muslim, atheist? I am not going to necessarily judge him harshly, but would be interested to know. Ms. Palin was vetted much more intrusively over many, many topics over a 72 hour Labor Day weekend, but nobody asks Obama this? Let’s hear his story….
September 7th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
The point is not that he was a Muslim. That shouldn’t make a bit of difference because he clearly is against the terrorists.
The point is that he has lied about it, but even then I wouldn’t touch it. It has too great a potential to backfire.
This is not a reason to vote against Obama or to vote for McCain, thus the campaign should stay away from it.
September 7th, 2008 at 7:26 pm
That he was raised a muslim is not nearly as much a concern as that he might have been raised a marxist. Now, some allegations that he had ties to a black muslim in college years. But the chickens all came home to roost when he got to rev. wright’s chicken coop.
September 7th, 2008 at 7:47 pm
One thing that I noticed yesterday is that , in Virginia, a battleground state that is tight as a drum, the DEMS have added 300,000 NEW voters to the rolls. You can’t tell how many are Republicans or Democrats because they don’t need to say, but 40 % ( 120,000 ) were under 25 years of age. Also, Gallup doesn’t poll for Barr and Nader who generally are running together at 5-6 %. Nevertheless, better to be ahead than behind although I worry that McCain has NO margin of error. He can’t lose Virginia, Iowa and New Mexico and still win. Yes, I know the math but it doesn’t work that way. There is border spill over into neighboring states as well
September 7th, 2008 at 8:09 pm
I’m so excited! Now I want to see some good state polls and I’ll be more convinced of a win (although I’m feeling like we will).
September 7th, 2008 at 8:51 pm
For the record, I said McCain would be up 5-7 points on Monday.
September 7th, 2008 at 8:57 pm
I think we should stay as far away from the “Obama is/was a Muslim” issue as we can possibly get.
Perhaps I feel that way in part because I don’t give a rat’s heinie, but as a pragmatist, I in having McCain identified (even by extension) with such an issue. How did the pounding the left (and some on the right) did on Sarah Palin play out?