The Candidates
Here is the full poll that Matthew E. Miller wrote about eariler:
USA Today/Gallup General Election Poll, conducted Sept. 5th-7th, 2008
Likely Voters:
- McCain/Palin 54%
- Obama/Biden 44%
Registered Voters:
- McCain/Palin 50%
- Obama/Biden 46%
The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples.
Inside the numbers:
Before the convention, Republicans by 47%-39% were less enthusiastic than usual about voting. Now, they are more enthusiastic by 60%-24%, a sweeping change that narrows a key Democratic advantage. Democrats report being more enthusiastic by 67%-19%.
Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a national unknown before McCain chose her for the ticket 10 days ago, draws a strong reaction from voters on both sides. Now, 29% say she makes them more likely to vote for McCain, 21% less likely.
September 7th, 2008 at 9:15 pm
Too bad we’re all so far apart, we could have a celebration party!
September 7th, 2008 at 9:15 pm
are these the same voters from the gallup tracker?
September 7th, 2008 at 9:24 pm
my goodness. i want to be very excited, but im scared this is a fluke. Please let it be real!
September 7th, 2008 at 9:24 pm
I can’t even whoop too loud, or I may be in danger. At a San Fran area hotel. Fox isn’t even carried here.
September 7th, 2008 at 9:25 pm
[...] Cross posted from here. [...]
September 7th, 2008 at 9:25 pm
Holy turnaround Batman!
September 7th, 2008 at 9:26 pm
RCP has now added this poll to their average, and JMac now leads the RCP average by 1.0.
September 7th, 2008 at 9:27 pm
Ok…the Drudge Report downgraded the message from the “NYT PREPARES TO FRONT EXPOSE ON PALIN’S BABY… DEVELOPING…” to “PAPER PREPARES TO FRONT DETAILED STORY ON PALIN’S BABY, NEWSROOM SOURCES TELL DRUDGE… DEVELOPING…”
I really hope her hands are clean on this because this is going to be persistent by the left-wing rags…if there is nothing there her popularity will go up…otherwise…
September 7th, 2008 at 9:28 pm
The enthusiasm gap is gone. Those numbers, more then any other, showcased the fallacy of a Lieberman or Ridge selection. Republicans were just barely, tepidly, uninterestedly, deciding to cast their vote for McCain before Palin. They weren’t prepared to volunteer, to donate, to attend rallies, etc. Anyone who thought that wouldn’t make a difference doesn’t know enough about elections. And Lieberman or Ridge would have pushed that to the absolute breaking point (Lieberman would have broken it I believe), without any likely gain with independents or Dems.
September 7th, 2008 at 9:29 pm
that type of downgrade leads me to believe that it might not be bad. Those are key changes in tone. Sounds like it was leaked as a real grinder, but now, after it was seen, turned out to be just a regular article.
September 7th, 2008 at 9:31 pm
WOW!!!
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves here folks. We still have a lot of work to do out there folks. Especially those of us in battleground states. There’s also a lot of work to be done in Governor, Senate, and Congressional races.
Let us take this good news and let it strengthen us as we work even harder.
September 7th, 2008 at 9:31 pm
sampo, Gallop does registered only and sampled 2,700.
September 7th, 2008 at 9:34 pm
Interestingly enough, FoxNews’s little bio of Sarah was filmed just days before she gave birth. She looked AWFULLY pregnant in the video and presumably one doesn’t give an interview with a major cable network, while one’s trying to clandestinely fake a 8-month along pregnancy. So I’m going to assume it’s focused on some other angle.
September 7th, 2008 at 9:36 pm
Ray, I am glad you are here, I have a question for you.
NH and Alaska are similar in their ind. and libertarian leaning ways. Will Palin sell there because of the similarities?
September 7th, 2008 at 9:44 pm
Kristofer - it is really hard to say one way or the other right now. I think Palin’s libertarian streak will play well up here, to an extent. One should also remember that McCain has a very special relationship with this state (I hated that fact during the primary up here but moving along).
I think McCain’s Maverick/Reformer history is what made him popular up here so I would, at first glance, say that Palin’s same history will make her popular up here as well.
I do have some fear that my great state has turned markedly leftward as many many Massholes have moved up here and are turning this state into the very same thing they were running away from.
September 7th, 2008 at 9:46 pm
I have to be honest and say that if McCain wins it will be the most enjoyable and satisfactory win in my lifetime. Moreso than either of W’s.
You know what would be even better.
If McCain wins and all the press get their wish and something happens to him, Palin names Jeb Bush her VP, and brings Cheney back at Defense.
Take that suckers.
September 7th, 2008 at 9:49 pm
Jim, too bad about Jeb. He was such a great Governor.
September 7th, 2008 at 9:55 pm
As the newly-deposed Chris Matthews would say…”Haaaah!”
September 7th, 2008 at 10:00 pm
#17 - yeah, too bad his brother ruined it for him.
That made me think about political dynasties. Who’s next after the Bushes? Huntsman? Clinton? Romney?
September 7th, 2008 at 10:02 pm
Not sure if you saw the Face the Nation interview by McCain, but it was very good. McCain is going hard after independents right now. I am really excited and think if messaging doesn’t change too much I have no doubt he can win. However, I am still scared something is going to happen…
1) What the heck is that NYT piece and how many more of those will happen (like I said, I hope her hands are clean)
2) The inquiry by the Alaskan Senate is no where near from being over with a very partial Dem leading the investigation
3) There are still a lot of debates to happen…McCain is not a great debater, but thankfully neither is Obama
September 7th, 2008 at 10:18 pm
I really hope her hands are clean on this because this is going to be persistent by the left-wing rags…if there is nothing there her popularity will go up…otherwise…
I suspect the “baby” piece has something to do with the nonsense about her somehow causing the Down’s Syndrome. It doesn’t matter how active you are, how much you travel, whether you fly on a commercial aircraft after your water has broken or not, the only thing that causes Down’s syndrome is old eggs. She was in her forties and the rate of Down’s drastically increases in mother’s over 40. They seriously need to give it a rest. There’s nothing there that could “dirty her hands”.
September 7th, 2008 at 10:23 pm
Cp,
I can’t seem to post a link, but the NYT piece hit, and it’s a Puff (positive) piece.
September 7th, 2008 at 10:44 pm
Matthew, really? I would have thought that the piece has not hit yet by the posting of Drudge. Specifically, it has no link and when Drudge does not have a link, it is often one of his own scoops not on any other site…
September 8th, 2008 at 3:38 am
What are the state polls up to? The only ones coming out of the conventions are the national ones. We don’t have a national election…
This surge would be more meaningful if it represented (1) a general shifting of voters across state lines to the Republican ticket (especially in swing states) than if it represented (2) an energizing of conservative supporters to the republican ticket (particularly in states like Texas or Utah).
Case 1 is a true game changer; case 2 is just further polarization. Watch Colorado’s numbers. I think it will decide the winner this year.
September 8th, 2008 at 7:02 am
I’m looking forward to the state poll movement. I suspect we’ll see VA, NH, OH, and CO back in light red. Plus MI, WI, PA, and NM back in the toss-up catagory.
September 8th, 2008 at 8:59 am
Let us not get to giddy. as PeeJay is exactly correct. But, if you get Republicans in general more excited then the margins in TX and UT will be large but it will also help, though less so, in OH, CO, etc… I don’t think this will be just a ‘turnout’ election but it sure is a requirement for either side to be competitive.
I can’t really figure out a way McCain wins without OH. I can come up with the math but all the scenarios seem highly unlikely. If McCain loses in OH then I can’t really see him swinging MI or PA which would be required. Electorally, Obama still has an advantage. Obama wins with OH but still has options without OH. McCain doesn’t have that luxury. But, if McCain can firm up OH with energetic Republicans and Reagan Democrats then that bodes well for a close election and a possible McCain victory.
September 8th, 2008 at 9:13 am
Does anyone else get the sense that FL is pretty firm this year for McCain?
This from Rasmussen on August 18th showing a two point lead for McCain:
“Last month, Obama held a statistically insignificant one-point lead on McCain following a month where Obama spent a reported $5 million on television advertising while McCain spent nothing.”
It seems that Obama tried to make it competitive but with little success has pulled resources out of FL. Anyone in FL that can report the level of TV ads by both sides in the last few weeks?
September 8th, 2008 at 10:19 am
There really was no doubt that McCain was going to win this election, thanks to our success in Iraq. His selection of Palin insures an electoral slaughter. The only question now is how much this will affect the congressional races.
And a little true bipartinsanship may not be too bad.