The Candidates
Right after McCain’s bounce — which is now starting to look like a no-kidding bump — started to become apparent, I made the following observation:
The really interesting results are going to come in polls for Senate and House races. The main thing about the Republican convention and the Palin pick (and the unfair, unfounded attacks on her) is that the Republican party, for the first time in three years, is energized. The importance of that can’t be underestimated. For Republicans running in Republican-leaning states or districts — and that is a large majority of vulnerable Senate and House seats this term — regular Republican turnout dedicated to electing a Republican ticket (as opposed to just stopping a Democratic President) could make a real difference.
We’re starting to see some real evidence of this downticket effect. There are four swing Governor’s races: Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, and Washington. The former two are held by Republicans, the latter two by Democrats. Republicans were consistently behind — usually by relatively small margins — in the last three states. Since the convention, we’ve seen polls showing the Republican up 18 in Indiana, up one in Washington, and up eight in North Carolina. I’ve already noted the good house polls that have come out. Even in Senate races — though I loathe campaign polls — we’ve seen campaign polling showing Sununu within two in NH, something we haven’t seen before.
But the biggest news, noted by Gary Matthew Miller here, and Soren Dayton here, is the Gallup poll showing Republicans up 5 among likely voters. Yes, that is the same polling model showing McCain up 10. But even if it is an outlier, even if it is skewed toward McCain, it is still the first poll in which Republicans have led since at least March of 2005. They’ve tied in only 3 polls since then. (and in 2004, only eight polls even showed Republicans leading at all)
Soren’s basic theory is, I think, the correct one. There is historical precedent for this. In 1988, Bush emerged from the summer doldrums after the convetion because he had used his convention to emerge from Reagan’s shadow. He was no longer Vice President Bush. He was George H.W. Bush, PRESIDENTIAL nominee. In 2000, Gore surged ahead after the convention for the same reason. He was no longer Vice President Gore. He was Al Gore, Democratic PRESIDENTIAL Nominee. Even in 1976, the Republican Convention gave Ford a chance to introduce himself to the nation as the President, not the Veep.
For in-parties, the Convention is an opportunity for their candidate to step out of the shadow of the last term, and to promise a fresh start. It gives them the opportunity to promise a break with the last four or eight years. That’s what I think is happening here, and why I think there might be a structural change occuring in the race, from the top of the ballot to the bottom.
The summer is a time for the bright shiny new toy. Barack Obama’s summer is over.
September 10th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
It is also important not to dismiss the strange creatures that emerged 5 weeks ago. And that is the republicans with spines standing up and pressing the energy issue. In the final analysis, that will be regarded as strong turning point during this election cycle.
Oh, and for anyone who follows InTrade:
McCain is edging ahead: McCain 49.9, Obama 49.4
September 10th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
McCain seems to be surging (more or less) everywhere. Hopefully in the next couple weeks we can move a few of the vulnerable states (OH, VA, and FL) into the safe column. The downticket surge that seems to be happening is amazing as well.
AND NONE OF THIS WOULD HAVE HAPPENED WITHOUT SARAH PALIN.
September 10th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
Jeff,
Yes, the GOP in Congress finding a spine has helped a lot too. Too bad they didn’t find it 8 years ago. We wouldn’t have to try to find a way out of this jam.
September 10th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
Whatever happened to all the Palin critics? Where are they? *crickets*
September 10th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
hopefully Mccain will help in NH and turn back the results from two years ago (at least somewhat)
September 10th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
McCain is actually at 50.0 to Obama’s 49.4 right this second
September 10th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
It looks like we may have the real reason Barack Obama chose Joe Biden as his running mate…seems they share the same position on plajiarism…
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=74881
September 10th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
Wow…this election is nuts!!!!
September 10th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
Did you all see this TOTALLY awkward moment with Joe Biden today??? Check this out!!! Gotta love having Biden on the ticket. What a dope.
http://gawker.com/5048135/stand-up-for-chuck
September 10th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
And yet strangely compelling.
September 10th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
#9, OMG, Biden is a nut-job!
September 10th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
Hey, Biden is in total gaff mode. He today in Nashua told someone that Clinton may have been a better VP than himself.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0908/Biden_bows_to_Clinton_.html?showall
September 10th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
Dotan #12,
Yes he did! I have the video in the works.
September 10th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
“He today in Nashua told someone that Clinton may have been a better VP than himself. ”
Duh.
September 10th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
dotan,
“Hey, Biden is in total gaff mode. He today in Nashua told someone that Clinton may have been a better VP than himself. ”
Does that mean even Biden is questioning Obama’s judgement?
September 10th, 2008 at 5:36 pm
Sean, this is likely just a post convention boost. If you look at the internals in these polls, the only thing that changed was the number of Republicans polled.
September 10th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
“If you look at the internals in these polls, the only thing that changed was the number of Republicans polled.”
That’s one of my points.
September 10th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=brbRnfjOO0w
Just watch the last 30 seconds. Gov Palin is so freakin awesome.
September 10th, 2008 at 11:14 pm
Mixing metaphors–it is Sarah Palin that they have created the Barbie doll action figure for–complete with micro-mini to attract all the new conservative male feminists.