September 12, 2008
Gallup: GOP Takes the Lead on Generic Congressional Ballot
This is hands-down the most important piece written about the race today:
A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters’ “generic ballot” preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.
The new results come from a Sept. 5-7 survey conducted immediately after the Republican National Convention and mirror the resulting enhanced position of the Republican Party seen in several other indicators. These range from John McCain’s improved standing against Barack Obama in the presidential race to improved favorability ratings of the Republicans, to Republican gains in party identification. The sustainability of all of these findings is an open question that polling will answer over the next few weeks.
The positive impact of the GOP convention on polling indicators of Republican strength is further seen in the operation of Gallup’s “likely voter” model in this survey. Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%.
If these numbers are sustained through Election Day — a big if — Republicans could be expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.-(emphasis mine)
Image Source: Gallup
http://race42008.com/2008/09/12/gallup-gop-takes-the-lead-on-generic-congressional-ballot/trackback/
September 12th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
Only if americans vote straight republican in november.
September 12th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
I wonder what impact this news might have on the energy debate going on in the House even as we speak.
September 12th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
Incredible news. Taking back the House is a huge longshot, but if McPalin continues to perform at their current level, their coattails could be substantial.
September 12th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
Just holding the House where it is would be huge considering all the retirements we’re dealing with.
But it won’t be like those special elections where we lose everywhere.
September 12th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
This is huge. How Republicans thought this was even remotely possible six months ago? You would have been laughed at for even throwing out this hypothesis. Retaking the House probably isn’t in the cards, but we have a great shot at reducing our deficit significantly. Whodathunkit?
September 12th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
This is the best news!!!!!!!
September 12th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
BTW, we can take away that the Dems waving Bush around will no lonher work.
September 12th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Funny how a lot of red state superdelegates backed Obama because they thought he would help them downticket. Oops. Turns out McCain’s the one with long coattails.
September 12th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
Sorry for the off topic, but I know Deroy Murdock is one of Kavon’s favorite colmnists. I’ve never been really impressed with him until today, but I have to say his piece in NRO online about pay imabalances based on gender in the two campaigns is the most incisive indictment for hypocrisy I have ever seen. Check it out. http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NmEzMTZmNTk5MDI0NTZmNjUwMjllN2ZlZTc0MWFmYzY=
September 12th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
This is the poll I tend to disbelieve. I wish it were true but I am not convinced anything moves that fast. The outlook is much better, but on a race by race basis its not that good.
September 12th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
If we can get people to realize that the scope of incompetence manifest in this congress is the result of Democrat control, we can certainly take back congress!
September 12th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
Great idea and hope but I don’t think it is reality based. I would be happy if we even shrunk our minority status by 1 seat in the House.
September 13th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
This is the real Palin effect. Picking a Reaganite revs the base and indies. McCain was going to beat barry like drum anyway. Dems are getting very nervous in states because their internal polls are much worse (see more accurate) than msm polls.