From Nobama at Redstate:
McCain/Palin are still in the pole position in this race.
How Much Should We Trust Polls?
Sept. 20, 2008
Summary: On November 1, 2004, the day before the election, polls showed Kerry winning comfortably. The polls in 2004 all over-sampled Democratic voters in every single battleground state. There seem to be a significant percentage of people who vote Republican but either don’t like talking to pollsters or don’t have time to talk to pollsters.
Obama should listen to the “hand-wringers” in his party. Any state where polls show him with a lead of 1% to 4% should be considered a toss-up at best, or, more likely (due to the Bradley effect) “leaning McCain”.
From Rolling Stone Magazine (June, 2006):
On the evening of the [2004] vote, reporters at each of the major networks were briefed by pollsters at 7:54 p.m. Kerry, they were informed, had an insurmountable lead and would win by a rout: at least 309 electoral votes to Bush’s 174, with fifty-five too close to call. In London, Prime Minister Tony Blair went to bed contemplating his relationship with President-elect Kerry.
As the last polling stations closed on the West Coast, exit polls showed Kerry ahead in ten of eleven battleground states — including commanding leads in Ohio and Florida — and winning by a million and a half votes nationally. The exit polls even showed Kerry breathing down Bush’s neck in supposed GOP strongholds Virginia and North Carolina. Against these numbers, the statistical likelihood of Bush winning was less than one in 450,000. ”Either the exit polls, by and large, are completely wrong,” a Fox News analyst declared, ”or George Bush loses.”
But as the evening progressed, official tallies began to show … disparities — as much as 9.5 percent — with the exit polls. In ten of the eleven battleground states, the tallied margins departed from what the polls had predicted. In every case, the shift favored Bush. Based on exit polls, CNN had predicted Kerry defeating Bush in Ohio by a margin of 4.2 percentage points. Instead, election results showed Bush winning the state by 2.5 percent. Bush also tallied 6.5 percent more than the polls had predicted in Pennsylvania, and 4.9 percent more in Florida.
From Ruy Texeira’s blog (11/1/2004):
Final Pre-election Poll Analysis
By Alan Abramowitz
- The National Polls
In the 12 most recent national polls listed on pollingreport.com, among likely voters, Bush is leading in 7 polls, Kerry in 2, and 3 are tied. Average support was 48.2 percent for Bush, 46.7 percent for Kerry, and 0.8 percent for Nader. In the 7 polls that provide results for registered voters, however, Kerry is leading in 4, Bush in 1, and 2 are tied. Average support was 47.0 percent for Kerry, 46.7 percent for Bush, and 0.9 percent for Nader. Bottom line: Even in the samples of likely voters, Bush is well below the 50 percent mark generally needed by an incumbent. In fact, when Gallup allocates the undecided vote, their likely voter sample goes from a 49-47 Bush lead to a 49-49 tie. In the broader samples of registered voters, Bush is actually trailing in most of the recent polls. With a very high turnout expected tomorrow, the registered voter samples are probably more representative of the actual electorate than the likely voter samples.
- The Four Major Battleground States
In Florida, there have been 11 polls since October 15. Bush led in 5, Kerry led in 5, and 1 was tied. Average support was 47.5 percent for Bush, 46.5 percent for Kerry, and 1.2 percent for Nader. Turnout in the early voting has been enormous, with a clear advantage for Democrats. Expect a huge turnout tomorrow as well that will put this state in the Kerry column. In Ohio, there have been 11 polls since October 15. Kerry led in 7, Bush led in 3, and 1 was tied. Average support was 47.2 percent for Bush and 48.3 percent for Kerry. Ralph Nader is not on the ballot. Turnout is going to be enormous and two federal judges ruled this morning that Republican political operatives cannot challenge voters in minority precincts. That was Karl Rove’s last gasp in Ohio. The Buckeye state will go Democratic this year and no Republican has ever won a presidential election without carrying Ohio. In Pennsylvania, there have been 11 polls since October 15. Kerry led in 8, Bush led in 2 and 1 was tied. Average support was 46.8 percent for Bush and 48.7 percent for Kerry. Ralph Nader is not on the ballot. Pennsylvania looks solid for Kerry.
Finally, in Michigan, there have been 5 polls since October 15, including only the most recent release of the Mitchell tracking poll. Kerry led in all 5 polls. Average support was 44.2 percent for Bush, 47.2 percent for Kerry, and 1.0 percent for Nader. Michigan also looks solid for Kerry. Bottom line: George Bush’s situation in all four of these key battleground states is dire. His support is well below 50 percent in all of them and he is currently trailing John Kerry in 3 of the 4. A clean sweep of all four states by John Kerry is a distinct possibility.
Posted by rteixeira on November 1, 2004 12:40 PM | Permalink
Conclusion: McCain is not in bad shape. I just got done reviewing the accuracy of polls taken immediately before the election in 2000 and I found similar discrepancies. That case is not an analogous one, however, as those who were old enough to vote then may remember. Al Gore set off his media-bomb on the Friday before the election: the revelation that his campaign had been sitting on for months that Bush had a DUI arrest back in the 1970’s which had not been disclosed. This revelation significantly drove down Bush’s poll numbers. We need to be ready for the Dem’s media-bombs this time around. They seem to focus on personal/character issues. Especially those with a sex-scandal tinge (Mark Foley/Ted Haggard).
So be vigilant. Donate $20-$200 to McCain/Palin today. We need to keep BHO and the other jerk from taking over the country.
September 20th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
I would agree that McCain is hardly out of it, and with all three debates remaining and any number of possible major foreign policy events between now and November 4th, but I don’t see where you’re getting this:
“Obama should listen to the “hand-wringers” in his party. Any state where polls show him with a lead of 1% to 4% should be considered a toss-up at best, or, more likely (due to the Bradley effect) “leaning McCain”.”
While there may be independent and Democratic voters who refuse to vote for Obama based upon his race when they would have voted for O’Bama the Irish American Democratic candidate, all evidence from the primaries which involved Democratic and independent voters points to a lack of a Bradley effect, which would mean the racial antipathy has already been priced into the polls. Whether that evidence bears out, or whether the Obama ground game advantage in states like New Mexico and Nevada actually makes a difference and the hundreds of thousands that they have registered vote (and vote for him) won’t be known until some time after the election.
September 20th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
GOTV does help a candidate win. The GOP already has these systems in place. I remember that in 2004 they did a few dry runs to get the kinks out. I wonder when the first dry run will be this year.
September 20th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
Any thoughts about the new AP poll that discusses race and mentions that it WILL be a factor in the election?
September 20th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
even the disgraceful andrew sullivan believes obama needs to up by 7 or 8 on nov. 4 to get past the bradley effect.
September 20th, 2008 at 4:19 pm
As I see it, McCain’s base (Deep South, Western Rockies, and the Mid-west) is more rock-ribbed than Obama’s base (Kerry 2004) because of the fervency of the evangelical and social conservative vote and the maturity of his base voters who are more likely to vote.)Even if McCain loses Iowa and one of Colorado or NM, if he can retain the the Bush Red States of 2004, he will still win with 270 or 274 EV regardless of the wide margins that Obama can boast in NY state and California. For Obama if he loses a state with major EV like Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin he will lose the election. As the polls now stand and with the positive effect of Palinmania on working class white voters and disenchanted Hillary voters I can more envision this occurring than McCain losing in Florida, Virginia, or Missouri. For McCain the key state is Ohio; for Obama its Pennsylvania. I’ll make this prediction. The candidate who loses his ‘key’ state will lose the election.
September 20th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
#1, a lot of general election voters do not vote in primaries so I don’t think primaries can be a basis for your argument.
September 20th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
#3 As a former dem party official of 18 years that defected in 2000, I have always said that most of the remaining racism in the american electorate is in the dem party.
September 20th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
#4 yes, and the bradley effect does not detect racism. rather, it detects fear of being seen as such.
September 20th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
I think the Bradley effect is wiped out by the Denzel effect. Equally as many Americans (perhaps more) want to feel good about themselves by voting for a African-American as those who vote against. As long as the candidate can maintain the “post-racial” image (example: Denzel Washington who is a leading man in mainstream films – vs Spike Lee who does films that primarily appeal to African-American audiences)
I’m very excited about McCain/Palin prospects for victory, but I’m curious … have the pollsters written anything about how they’ve corrected their samples since 2004?
September 20th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
#9 The feel good misplaced white guilt is significant, but it gets wiped out by reality muggings.
September 20th, 2008 at 5:04 pm
#9 They always correct them a few days before Election Day. They need not do so before, because all the polls say, “if the election were held today’
and it isn’t held that day.
September 20th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
Good post Gamecock,
Cockstradamas’ predictions have yet to be wrong this primary cycle.
September 20th, 2008 at 5:25 pm
Too bad the moniker “Cockstradamas” sounds like an occult porn star.
Anyway, yes. I concur. Good post. I only wish that I didn’t need to console myself with precedent and analogy that suggests that the current polling depicts the electorate amiss.
September 20th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
#14 thanks and control your where your mind wanders!
September 20th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
I dont think the bradley effect is over inflating Obama’s standings, but it may be serving as a ceiling. It’s the people reporting undecided (when they really aren’t) that is skewing this thing. Obama met many of the polling targets in the primaries, he just didnt split the portion of the polls that reported undecided. Second, the bias thing only was an issue with states with significant black populations.
September 20th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
#15 even when its just 2 white guys, final results usually underestimate gop numbers by 3-5%
September 20th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
#15 LISTEN, THE BRADLEY EFFECT IS
NOT
BIAS
It’s fear of being seen as biased. Its misplaced, mostly LIBERAL white guilt.
September 20th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
Sounds like Gamecock is backing down from his McCain landslide prediction! Let me guess you will blame McCain’s loss on the economy and you will never just admit you were wrong!
September 20th, 2008 at 7:40 pm
#17: I’ve been making the exact same point numerous times myself. And I think the exit poll data vs. election results in the Clinton/ Obama contest bear that out. The more conservative states (most of the South) either had no Bradley effect or it was relatively minor. The states where the Bradley effect was most pronounced were New Hampshire and California, both of which are teeming with white yuppie libs. You should do a further post on this.
As for the general point, I think McCain’s problem is that the economy is weighing on voters minds right now and McCain is being tarred with guilt by association. This presents an opportunity because on the Fannie/Freddie/subprime mortgage mess, McCain was on the right side of the issue years before the blowup, while Obama simply went along with the mess. Since the media won’t do McCain any favors it will take him awhile to get this fact out, but if he does I think he can erase Obama’s edge on the economy outright.
September 20th, 2008 at 7:55 pm
#18 cite what made you infer what I did not imply
September 20th, 2008 at 8:55 pm
#19 When people go into that booth and think who they would rather have in charge in a crisis? no brainer
McCain
And I’ll never forget the poll the msm tried to use to back up Obama’s bitter statement that after God and guns labled whites as bigots. The poll asked if race was a “factor” in their vote. This was right after all the Rev Wright tapes were released,
Most said yes it was a factor, not because Obama’s race was a factor, but rather because Wright made race a factor. Wright is a racist and Obama sat in that church 20 years and then told Cally dems that whites in PA were bitter bigots.
September 20th, 2008 at 9:44 pm
Perhaps the biggest scandal of American politics and media are polls, the way they are used to manipulate by pushing opinion rather than measuring opinion, and the way the media trumpets them as gospe
September 20th, 2008 at 10:45 pm
#22 The biggest scandal is how the media shapes coverage of elections to make sure that liberalism (the real reason for defeats) is never blamed for dem defeats. rather, they blame debate moments or tv ads. Notice how they promote the idea that what happens on their medium is what matters, not positions on issues.
bull
Their polls are used to perpetuate this myth.
September 21st, 2008 at 4:27 am
Nice thread Gamecock.
But does the McCain campaign have the ground war organization in the swings, especially in the pink ones, to drive turnout? A la Rove?
September 21st, 2008 at 8:58 am
#25 Palin restored the ground troops with passion.