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PPP (D) Colorado General Election
- Barack Obama 51% (47%)
- John McCain 44% (46%)
Did Barack Obama’s selection of Joe Biden as his running mate make you more or less likely to vote for him?
- More likely 36%
- Less likely 30%
- No difference 34%
Did John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate make you more or less likely to vote for him?
- More likely 38%
- Less likely 47%
- No difference 15%
Survey of 1,084 likely voters was conducted September 20-21. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 40% (D); 36% (R); 24% (I). Results from the poll conducted September 7-9 are in parentheses.
September 23rd, 2008 at 1:45 pm
No to be redundant, but for those in campaign staff that read these posts, please go get John Elway and place him front and center in the Colorado campaign.
We need John Elway. The presidency is at stake.
Thanks.
September 23rd, 2008 at 1:53 pm
McCain better hope some foreign country invades another foreign country like PRONTO.
September 23rd, 2008 at 2:01 pm
#2. Me.
You’re joking right? I think people who hope for a Bradley effect to win are idiots, but people who hope for a country to invade another country to win an election are just psychotic.
September 23rd, 2008 at 2:07 pm
Why don’t we just try to win PA? The election will be over before we cross the Miss. river on election night, so we will not have to worry about CO, NM or NV.
September 23rd, 2008 at 2:11 pm
Uh, #3, I didn’t hope for it. I said McCain needs something like that to happen: he is quickly losing ground everywhere that counts. He has completely lost control over the conversation.
Again, I’m not hoping, only illustrating how the game has changed for him.
P.S. Way to go McCain, way to drop the experience argument that was working by picking Palin!
September 23rd, 2008 at 2:12 pm
PPP usually overpolls the Dem some because they
let you call them back to participate.
September 23rd, 2008 at 2:19 pm
Hey Alex Goldman………..I mean Aron Goldman, what is with highlighting Palin questions on the polls?
September 23rd, 2008 at 2:25 pm
Kris,
I have always highlighted both positive and negative information, regardless of which party it favors. Please don’t shoot the messenger.
September 23rd, 2008 at 2:30 pm
Aron,
I did not intend to target you, I am not as good of a shot as Governor Palin. I was just nudging you in a public domain. I guess I am partisan enough for the both of us.
September 23rd, 2008 at 2:39 pm
Kris,
If I really wanted to draw negative attention to Palin’s impact in Colorado, I could have posted on the front page the following data, as reported by PPP:
September 23rd, 2008 at 2:47 pm
#10, Your approach is clearly most intelligent and subtle than AN’s was. I give you credit for that!
So are you going to post that poll I sent you (women’s view of McCain)?
September 23rd, 2008 at 2:48 pm
This poll is bunk as it overpolls Dems. Bunk, bunk, bunk!
September 23rd, 2008 at 3:19 pm
Kris,
I just got your e-mail. Look on the front page.
September 23rd, 2008 at 3:59 pm
Palin is a lost cause. Yes, she energizes the far-right base. But does nothing for moderates, independents, and anyone who learns a little about her, as this poll and others are beginning to point out.
September 23rd, 2008 at 4:18 pm
JA Pruce has a script running that automatically posts “This poll is bunk” every time it detects a poll that doesn’t favor McCain.
September 23rd, 2008 at 4:50 pm
most of what people have ‘learned’ about palin, are lies.
September 23rd, 2008 at 5:14 pm
If Colorado were to go for Obama, there is a very credible scenario in which we could have a 269-269 tie in the electoral college, followed by Democrats in the House electing Obama. This would require New Hampshire going for McCain, which it was by 3 points in the last poll I saw. It would also entail us winning Ohio and Florida while failing to make any breakthroughs in the upper Midwest. Colorado could be decisive, and I hope my gut is correct in assuming it will stay Red.
September 23rd, 2008 at 6:16 pm
Just a note here… I think Obama is slightly ahead in CO, but by the narrowest of margins… there is no way he’s up by 7 or even more than 3 in CO, given the party ID in the states. I wish Rasmussen would’ve included CO in their swing state polling yesterday (I dont want to see KS’ and CA’s poll numbers, Scott!) because they’re pretty accurate (dont oversample Dems like this particular poll did).
In 2004, according to the CNN exit polling, party ID breakdown in CO was 38% GOP, 29% Dem, and 33% Indies. Now obviously, I know that the state has been trending away from the GOP since 2004, but I honestly don’t see the Dems going from 29% to 40%. The GOP, I think probably has dropped from 38% to 36%, maybe even 35%. Indies certainly didnt drop from 33% to 24%. I wish I had the 2006 CNN exit polling because it would provide a more accurate party ID than me trying to guess what the party ID has changed to in 4 years (and a bad 4 yrs for the GOP). But I guarantee you that the Dems aren’t 40% of Colorado voters. If I had to guess, I’d say the GOP has 35%, Dems have 32% and Indies have 33%.
IF you look at the cross tabs… that would definitely not give you an Obama 51-44 lead. It would give him a 49.4-44.6, about a 5 pt lead. Still not good for McCain, I guess.
September 23rd, 2008 at 6:18 pm
I also dont see Obama leading 58-31 among Indies. Yes leading… but not by 17 pts.