That’s what we’ll all likely be saying in about six weeks from now given Obama’s debate performance tonight.
Readers know that I’m neither a cheerleader nor a coach. I’m not here to make you shout, “Rah, Rah, Rah!” I’m here to call it as I see it. And if my instincts are correct, Barack Obama probably closed the deal last night with the wavering swing voters who have been leery of his inexperience and liberalism.
It wasn’t that McCain’s performance was especially bad. McCain certainly did better in this debate than George W. Bush did in his first debate with John Kerry in 2004. It wasn’t that McCain lost the debate, it was that Obama won the debate by doing what he needed to do to convince an electorate that wants to vote Democratic to vote for him. On economics, Obama’s priorities were the priorities of the middle class, while McCain’s were not. While McCain offered corporate tax cuts and deficit reduction, Obama proposed to be just as hawkish on wasteful spending while also giving the middle class a tax break and aggressively addressing the areas in which the middle class is hurting, such as health care, education, and energy. In fact, Obama reminded me a lot of Bill Clinton from 1996, who had discovered that if he promised to be a steward of “Medicare, Medicaid, education, and the environment,” he could beat anything and everything the Republicans had to offer among suburban middle class voters who aren’t ideologues of any sort and who just want to be able to fill up their tank, go to work, pay their kids’ tuition, and go to the doctor when necessary. McCain, by trying to keep the conversation on corporate tax cuts and pork, seemed not to understand what is currently on most Americans’ minds these days in the domestic arena.
On foreign policy, Obama held his own by presenting himself as tough, intelligent, and as someone with the judgment and temperament to be Commander in Chief despite his lack of experience in the arena. McCain’s major lines of attack against Obama weren’t particularly effective. McCain kept coming back to Iraq, which is probably ranked only slightly higher than ethanol subsidies when it comes to Americans’ concerns right now, and he allowed Obama to remind the majority of Americans who think Iraq was a mistake in the first place that it is Obama who agrees with them. Obama also seemed more like a dispassionate pragmatist on foreign policy than a goopy pacifist; I have no doubt that the average undecided voter will come away feeling that Obama is just as likely to kill Osama bin Laden as is McCain should either get the chance.
As such, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if tonight ends up being for Obama what Reagan’s debate with Carter was for our 40th president. Reagan’s ability to communicate his “extreme” ideas in a rational, reasonable way that made sense to most Americans turned a tied race into an easy win. Similarly, I can definitely see undecideds breaking for Obama given that they are already inclined to vote Democratic and given that Obama sounded quite sane and very reasonable. I will not mince words: McCain’s path to the presidency just got a lot harder.
Update: Some folks seem to think that Obama’s closing statement will hurt him. I had quite the opposite reaction. The non-partisans in the middle class are mad as hell right now. Every day I hear regular Americans, folks who are NOT partisan gunslingers, talk about how difficult it is to live a middle class life in this country today. Of COURSE partisan Republicans who care about abortion and judges are going to view this statement negatively. They WANT to find reasons not to like Obama. But to the average middle class, middle-of-the-road American who is trying to pay his or her mortgage, student loan payments, health care bills, etc, Obama’s sentiment that this country is giving middle class people a bad break will hit home with them. Sorry, I know that’s not what you want to hear, but that’s the way I see it.
Update II: Is it too early to say I told you so?
40% of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Barack Obama was the winner. 22% thought John McCain won. 38% saw it as a draw.
68% of these voters think Obama would make the right decision
about the economy. 41% think McCain would.49% of these voters think Obama would make the right decisions about Iraq. 55% think McCain would.
When Obama beats McCain by 18 points among undecideds, obliterates him on the economy, and nearly ties him on defense, it’s pretty clear who won the night.
September 27th, 2008 at 3:11 am
Yup, I agree. McCain certainly didn’t do a bad job nor did Obama ace the test completely but at the end Obama came across sufficiently presidential in an area (Foreign policy) that is weak area to allay concerns in the middle. To the partisan left and right, our respective candidates “won” outright but for those true undecideds in the middle I think it boils down to who can better “speak” to their concerns. At this point, I think Obama is begining to close that deal.
It isnt going to help McCain’s cause that the other debate is going to revolve around domestic policies which republicans have polled behind democrats on.
I cant imagine what the pressure is like on Palin at this point.
Interesting times…
September 27th, 2008 at 3:40 am
Protectionism, state-run health care, more government programs, subsidies for solar and wind power along with ethanol, “comparable worth” pay… At least while Obama’s running the economy even further into the ground he’ll have the priorities of the middle-class at heart.
September 27th, 2008 at 4:18 am
McCain won the debate.
McCain-Palin ‘08
September 27th, 2008 at 6:04 am
I don’t think one could be less of an expert on polls and statistics than I, but I still say, with no evidence to back myself up but with complete confidence, that this flash poll of debate viewers is pure hogwash. (To the extent that I’d grant any amount of credibility to this poll, I’d like to see an actual McCain vs Obama poll result rather than a poll which allows respondants to select both candidates as an answer to the question “who won the debate?” – which must be the case in a poll like this one with a total response of 109% on the economy question.)
However, assuming for a split second that the numbers are anywhere close to accurate, I must say that I’m actually impressed with McCain’s support among debate viewers on the economy. Let’s look at what happened tonight. We’re in a national economic crisis on a scale unseen in this country in decades. Inflation – true inflation – is reaching numbers not seen since the closing days of the Carter Administration. Americans are hurting financially and the light at the end of the tunnel seems to be moving further away from us, not closer towards us. The candidates tonight were asked how the $700 billion will affect how they perform their job as president and what spending they would cut. McCain rightly proposed an across the board spending freeze, an elimination of wasteful and counterproductive federal spending like the disasterous corn subsidies, and a reduction in taxes to stimulate desperately-needed job creation and stem the tide of businesses fleeing oversees. Obama’s plan to solve the crisis is to spend MORE on domestic programs and tap into Iraq’s budget surplus.
So, to sum up, McCain showed an understanding of the current crisis and boldly proposed to make the tough choices necessary to get the country back on track. Obama showed his complete lack of understanding of the dire financial straits we’re diving into and offered voters bribes and kickbacks which he will never be able to pay. With American voters historically supporting broad spending cuts except of course for all the programs affecting themselves, I can’t believe McCain even got 41% support in that poll.
In other words, if McCain can get 41% support on his economic platform of cutting spending and tackling an historic financial crisis rivaling the Great Depression, in a year where Republicans should be getting slaughtered, and on a topic (economics) where the GOP rarely beats the Dems in a poll even in a good year – well I guess it means there’s hope for this country yet. It means McCain just needs to get 10% more voters to simply wake up and see what’s going on around them. I for one think he’ll do it. He just needs to figure out how before the next debate.
September 27th, 2008 at 6:21 am
Mr. McCain looked for Presidential. Some voters will remember this.
September 27th, 2008 at 6:35 am
I don’t buy the “win by not losing” argument for a debate. McCain scored some points last night. Probably not enough, but it was a net plus.
September 27th, 2008 at 6:53 am
DaveG,
You may be right. I thought McCain missed a ton of opportunities. On the economy I felt like shouting when McCain continued to steer the conversation back to pork-barrel spending and failed to make the case sufficiently for his corporate tax cut. He should have said something like “Senator Obama, I’m promising tax cuts for all businesses, not just oil companies. 90% of businesses are small businesses and they’ll be able to buy new equipment, invest in technology, expand, and hire new workers; this is the engine of our economy. And regular folks benefit from the oil industry too and I’m not going to penalize them just because they work for a someone you don’t approve of them. They’re honest people who deserve the benefits of a flourishing economy. My running mate’s husband works on the oil slopes; he works with his hands to help provide for his family. He’s not an evil oil tycoon”. Or he should have said “Corporations don’t pay many taxes Senator Obama. When you tax a corporation, they don’t take the hit. They pass most of it on to the consumer in the form of higher prices and fewer workers. And they make up the rest of it by shipping American jobs overseas”. He just doesn’t know how to talk about this stuff.
September 27th, 2008 at 6:59 am
Assuming that there are 10% undecided in the country and given the 18% margin to Obama in who the undecideds thought won the debate, this should translate into a 1.8% bump for Obama. Nothing to scoff at, certainly, but nothing that can’t be overcome in the next debate or over the next few weeks.
Another thing that must be asked is does someone thinking one candidate “won” in a debate translate into a vote. I don’t know, but it’s something that has to be asked. I am under the impression that unless McCain had a clear win or Obama had a clear loss, then it is a “W” for Obama. I will not be voting for Obama.
September 27th, 2008 at 7:14 am
Post on a different site. How about Kos?
September 27th, 2008 at 7:33 am
I can’t seem to get my nervous nelly filter to work on this site…
September 27th, 2008 at 7:41 am
Dave, you call it like you see it, but you have seen in 70 x 70 ways from Sunday. See an ophthalmologist.
McCain was always going to win due to Obama’s extreme leftism. Add Rev Wright. Add base energizing Reaganite Palin. And while debate moments don’t decide elections, McCain won the debate, and add that Dems don’t win elections unless they are way up in polls. See Minter:
http://pajamasmedia.com/richardminiter/2008/09/20/gallups-internals-and-our-nations/
“Over at Wizbang, a fascinating look inside the raw numbers of the lastest Gallup Organization’s polls.
Skip the opening paragraphs about “trolls,” and dive into the numbers he dissects. If you look at the raw numbers, McCain is significantly ahead of Obama and his support is steady or growing in all categories. Meanwhile, Obama is steady or falling in all categories.
But Gallup reports Obama up over McCain by two points. Why? The weighting of voters–basically a guestimate about voter turnout–has changed over at Gallup, favoring Republicans during their convention but now favoring the Democrats. All polling organization weight the numbers. The question is how.
Now, here is where it gets fascinating. Wizbang re-weights the numbers to match ratios established by exit polls (polls of voters exiting the voting booth) in the past few presidential contests. Result: Obama 39%, McCain 45%.
Could Wizbang be right? If voter turnout doesn’t change substantially, yes, he could be right. Read his post and decide for yourself.
One hypothesis I would add: Republican and Republican-leaning independents are now favoring McCain because they took his pick of Palin as a signal that he will govern as a conservative, not a RINO.
And that, of course, is why liberals hate Palin. They wanted an election between two liberals, a hard and soft option. And now they are disappointed. So they want to punish McCain through Palin.”
No telling what you will see tomorrow DaveG, but you are the best!
September 27th, 2008 at 7:43 am
So what if McCain is down by 3 points 50 days before the election. He can easily make up that gap in 2 days. Remember that the next debate is a town hall.
September 27th, 2008 at 8:00 am
Look for Palin to blow away Biden.
September 27th, 2008 at 8:07 am
Dave,
You might be right. Obama may win in November. But most objective viewers saw the debate as a tie. Sure, a case could be made that a tie goes to Obama, and I believe that is probably the case. But it was so close that I doubt it changed the underlying dynamics of the race much. McCain is still a few points down. He needs to make that up in order to win – but he didn’t do anything last night that will prevent him from doing so. We’ll see what happens in the next two debates. I do think he needs to be more crisp and engaged on economic matters. He needs more specifics.
September 27th, 2008 at 8:14 am
There are some posters on this website that are officially nuts. DaveG, you are one of them.
This was about the independent vote, the bottom line is, he didn’t lose any support with them, it’s whether or not he gained any votes.
One thing about the next debate on the economy: It’s a Town Hall style debate.
McCain may benefit from that:
“Second presidential debate: all topics in town meeting format, moderated by Tom Brokaw”
September 27th, 2008 at 8:48 am
Great. Am I the only one that last night became absolutely convinced that Obama may get us out of Iraq (prematurely) and is going to get is into a deeper, more protracted war in Afghanistan while dragging Pakistan and another 300 million into a war with us? I have no particular problme with Obama other than this issue, we will have more war not less.
September 27th, 2008 at 8:53 am
I ONLY read the first sentence before I said, “Who is this? DaveG?”
Scroll, confirm, stop reading, comment, next.
DaveG is Mr. Depression.
September 27th, 2008 at 8:54 am
Good honest post Dave. Gamecock backing down from his McCainslide predictions again I see. Still think Barack won’t beat Dukakis lol GC. I admit I was a fan of Gov Romney in the primaries but really I think losing this time around will prove the best thing that could have happened as he likely wouldn’t have beaten Obama either with Mr 18% as President, and President Obama is going to have a rought 1st term so he’ll win in 2012 for sure. As for the primaries who is going to give him competition? Huckabee? Laughable. Palin – twice as laughable!
September 27th, 2008 at 8:59 am
DaveG, you are way off the point. McCain has the edge, remember:
1. Palin is a weak VP but so is Biden and Obama is a very weak nominee as well;
2. McCain is deemed older but he has a lot more experience than Obama which showed over and over during the debate;
3. Obama is a socialist and is very weak on foreign policy;
4. The Dems gambled with Obama and need to worry very much about the Bradley factor which certainly will mean 5 points deducted from Obama (Obama needs to go up by 10 to get outside the margin of error).
McCain should get a boost from the debate and we all know he does better from behind.
September 27th, 2008 at 9:05 am
Daveg your right.
It didn’t matter how good mccain did. He could given the performance of his life. All Obama had to do was look legitimate to the 5% who wanted to vote for a Dem but where nervous about his naivitie. Those are the people Obama won last night and pretty much claimed things.
September 27th, 2008 at 9:15 am
I’m still undecided on voting for McCain this election (Obama’s always been out of the question, pretty much), but I’m still waiting for McCain to speak to me. I’d have a hard time picking a winner in the debate, but I’d lean towards Obama. He was not “revealed to be inexperienced” like McCain needed to do. He beat McCain on economics, surprisingly. I saw McCain’s temper flash.
I agree with McCain idealogically much more than I do with Obama, but I just don’t hold much affection for the guy.
September 27th, 2008 at 9:22 am
I think that just as Palin boosted John at the GOP convention and carried him on her shoulders, she must do the same next Thursday night and move the ball forward. One thing that Palin can do is pick up on McCain’s theme of how naive Obama is. Palin must constantly interject that Obama is naive, unready and unprepared to be President and this meme will catch on. If at any time Biden attacks her, she can turn to Biden and say, “why are you such a mean man, that was totally uncalled for and a slap in the face to all women.” That will likely win McCain the women vote and lock in the millions of PUMA voters.
September 27th, 2008 at 9:26 am
Next week’s debates will be very well watched. Everyone wants to see if the inexperienced woman will do against Mr. Gaffe. Yes, that’s how people are viewing it. I think Palin will hold her own fine and that this will help boost McCain back up again. But, tonight he contained Obama. The media has been reacting that, “It’s a tie.” And their opinion on it being a tie matters, whether we like to admit it or not. A tie when McCain’s the underdog in this election is good when the media keeps making Obama out to be Mr. Talker-Spectacular.
If McCain can keep tying or outshine Obama at one of these debates, he will turn it around. And when Palin is able to outshine Biden as he comes off as abrasive with his foot-in-mouth disease, McCain can get a nice boost then too. Part of the reason Clinton was able to become a Senator in the Empire State was that Rick Lazio came off as too confrontational for the female candidate. Biden is the same way…
September 27th, 2008 at 9:26 am
Palin need to use Bidens words against him..
Biden Said Obama Is Not Ready To Serve As President. ABC’s George Stephanopoulos: “You were asked is he ready. You said ‘I think he can be ready, but right now I don’t believe he is. The presidency is not something that lends itself to on-the-job training.’” Sen. Biden: “I think that I stand by the statement.” (ABC’s, “This Week,” 8/19/07)
* Biden: “If the Democrats think we’re going to be able to nominate someone who can win without that person being able to table unimpeachable credentials on national security and foreign policy, I think we’re making a tragic mistake…” (Sen. Joe Biden, “The Diane Rehm Show,” 8/2/07)
* Biden: “Having Talking Points On Foreign Policy Doesn’t Get You There.” (“Biden Lashes Out At Obama,” ABC News’ “Political Radar” Blog, blogs.abcnews.com, 8/2/07)
September 27th, 2008 at 9:47 am
RIP Paul Newman btw.
September 27th, 2008 at 10:09 am
I thought McCain did well. We’ll have a deal done by Monday on the economic situation anatord things in the economy will start to settle down. Look for McCain to pull ahead by the last week. Obama had alot of me tooisms in this debate. He looked like a street agitator, I mean community organizer, turned junior senator.
September 27th, 2008 at 10:16 am
DaveG, nice try, but I don’t entirely buy your skepticism here. It strikes me as a bit contrived. And I say that as someone who prefers fatalistic pessimism on events beyond my control — it makes pleasant surprises all the more enjoyable.
Yet I think the journalist and one-time Carter speech-writer James Fallows makes a general good case for why the debate doesn’t really matter.
Cutting to the chase:
September 27th, 2008 at 10:23 am
BTW, anyone else notice the two major gaffes last night? Bam committed both, so the MSM will of course ignore them. The one was his Kissinger misquote, where he claimed Kissinger advocated direct talks between the Iranian leaders and our President.
The second, more painful, was where Bam couldn’t remember the name of the soldier whose name he wore on his wrist band. That was probably the most pathetic moment of the debate, and it showed just how utterly unconcerned Obama is with members of the military, the work they do and have done, and their safety. It was another clear demonstration that Obama could not care less about whether we win a war or not.
September 27th, 2008 at 10:30 am
Dave, you call it like you see it, but you have seen in 70 x 70 ways from Sunday. See an ophthalmologist.
Ha!
September 27th, 2008 at 10:35 am
I agree with a lot of Dave’s points here, as well.
September 27th, 2008 at 10:36 am
#7 Matthew Miller:
I couldn’t agree with you more. After sleeping on it, I realize that McCain’s biggest problem was that he lacks the economic know-how and political skill to explain why low spending plus a corporate tax cut will ultimately help Americans live that middle class life that they desire. He also allowed Obama to attack his health plan without seemingly knowing how to respond. Did McCain explain that his tax credit for health care was refundable, meaning that it is essentially a voucher for low-income people to buy a health plan, allowing everyone to buy basic coverage? Nope.
I think McCain’s a smart guy. But he just has no clue how to sell economic conservatism to the masses. Obama, on the other hand, is the best salesman liberalism has had since Bill Clinton.
September 27th, 2008 at 10:41 am
Doesn’t mean I think the election is over. But Obama did what I thought he needed to do, which I posted here before the debate.
September 27th, 2008 at 10:54 am
Well, in a bait-and-switch, three-card-monte kinda way, I guess that’s true…
Mac should point out the implications of Bam’s promises — which I think he started to do — and how none of it will be affordable.
Even if spending stays the same next year, tax revenue will most certainly fall or crater. All those financial masters of the universe have been losing their shirts over the course of the year. They are an important component of top ten percent who pay more than half of the nation’s total federal taxes. They are the ones he’s been waiting for, if you’ll pardon the paraphrase.
September 27th, 2008 at 11:27 am
So, Dave, I’ve forgotten: Was is 25 or 30 posts from you, each one proclaiming a different VP selection as a lock?
September 27th, 2008 at 11:44 am
Why do they let this idiot post on the front page?
September 27th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
Hello Number 19 I think counting on the Bradley Affect is not away to win. I think the reason that Obama is not up by more is due to the Bradley affect.
Lets face it is due to prejudice as some have said it has been said in reports that is why he is not up by more. This is about 5 points. Otherwise he would be up by 10
I think people are thinking about the Bradley affect but what about the Wall Street, Bail Out and Black Affect. All three we know are going to happen. I think McCain is not counting on the Bradley affect, at least I hope. I guess to look at the Bradley affect lets look at the state in which it happened.
Is there one in California where this affect started and do any of us on here think the Bradley affect will help McCain win that state?
I look at IA a state that has 90 cauc ratio and he is leading by 8-10 points and has been all year.
The same is in made when 98 is caus and Obama is winning there too. There is also the ground game which most of us have said is going to be unprecedented. In 04, that is what helped bush that was a point ahead of Kerry and ended up winning it by about 3 and big leads in most states
McCain can win IF he is seriously able to connect with voters on the economy before Obama does. They both have not yet. The first one to do this will win this thing.
September 27th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
#23 McCain needed to win this debate because it has been said all year that this is is bread and butter. Him being and undergog is true but he is no underdog in regards to Foriegn Policy. Most say it was a tie and a few on either side said their guy won. McCain needed a clear cut victory in this and he did not get it. Can he still win sure. But I think its important to proceed from here being cautiously optimistic.