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four ways of considering this debate in different contexts:
1. In a vacuum: Biden wins hands down. Offered very substantive remarks that addressed questions fully. I don’t agree with most of his answers, but he is a good debater, very knowledgeable and came off very strong. Palin seems to think voters don’t want to hear her answers to what seemed to be fair questions from the moderator. I am guessing SNL will have some fun with that moment. Palin wasn’t non-substantive, she had some good moments, but Biden proves more knowledgeable and stronger.
2. In context of Palin’s recent interviews: Palin wins. Much better performances in this different format. Thumbs up, as Matt Miller has said in the comments, she was under intense pressure and came through. Very outstanding.
3. In context of future career: Mildly helpful. Palin’s main constituency, the evangelical working class, was reassured. The problem is in a future GOP primary (20xx- there will be one at some point) she will be running against other people who are stronger competitors in that arena than Obama (see Huckabee). She won’t be the lone conservative in the race, it won’t be so clear cut and opposition-less from her home party. I doubt she will ever appeal strongly from the wonk/intellectual end, and she won’t be the only pro-life candidate in the field. I am not saying she is a shoe-out for a future primary, but she is no shoe-in. This debate helped her keep a foot in, but will the leg follow?
4. In context of the 2008 election (oh yeah- nearly forgot!)- Biden wins. You see, Palin’s answers are great for the base. But everytime Palin is seen arguing against income distribution and what not, Biden and Obama have effectively framed it as arguing against the middle class. And McCain and Palin seem to be suckers for it. Her principles are right without a doubt, but independents are non-ideological by definition. They aren’t interested in why free market principles work- or else Biden wouldn’t have been knocking it; and actually neither would she have with her Wall Street greed line. It’s a bad year and a bad time in the cycle to be put in a position of arguing conservative principles.
Anyway, that’s my opinion.
October 2nd, 2008 at 11:23 pm
Do you live in a cave Jason? Sarah Palin was the one who won hands down.
October 2nd, 2008 at 11:27 pm
Chip, yes. But thankfully my wife dresses like a cave women. It makes the long cold nights much more “bear”-able.
October 2nd, 2008 at 11:30 pm
Surely there are middle class people who believe in free market principles.
October 2nd, 2008 at 11:31 pm
I just talked to my wife who watched the debate. She is conservative, but not very political. She said she though Biden sounded like he knew what he was talking about more, but that she liked Palin much better.
My guess is most voters probably feel the same way, just like Jason points out. Biden is more knowledgeable (well not really, but that is how he comes across) and Palin is more likeable.
October 2nd, 2008 at 11:34 pm
Sarah Palin won because she conected with the middle class, average voter. Joe Biden came of as a frustrated, old Senator. After McCain serves 2009-2013, Vice President Palin 2012!
October 2nd, 2008 at 11:43 pm
Vice President Palin would be a shoe in for 2012. President McCain will have high approvel ratings because of his decisive military victory in the Iranian-Isreali war. Or am I getting ahead of myself? Just trying to be optimistic.
October 2nd, 2008 at 11:49 pm
huckabee, romney and the rest of the 08 also-rans are toast for 2012. thats the big outcome of tonight. true she is not shoe-in for the nod next time, but she is in the poll position and for at least a few years will be considered the frontrunner.
you see, she is acceptable to both huckabee socons and romney fiscalcons. she unites their groups, plus pulls in conservative women. i can’t see how romney beats her in iowa or SC. and huck couldn’t beat mccain in nh or sc. she will handle them both, if they even run now.
palin is in the pole position. thune, jindal, sanford, could all challenge her, and i think petraeus would rout her. but she lives on past 2008, that much has been cemented tonight.
October 2nd, 2008 at 11:56 pm
Chip, there’s a lot of water to go under the bridge first.
The polls show that #4 is pretty sound. Biden knows more, is more qualified, but Palin is more likeable. Mind you, insta-polls are dodgy.
October 2nd, 2008 at 11:58 pm
Max, why do you say Petraeus would rout her? The one thing we learnt from Wes Clark’s candidacy is that it is hard to move from the Army to Presidential politics. It takes time to adjust.
October 3rd, 2008 at 2:26 am
I agree with Jason’s 4 points. I don’t think there was really a winner in the debate overall, but I think Biden definitely made more convincing arguments, and Palin definitely didn’t bomb.
October 3rd, 2008 at 4:33 am
Sticking with last week’s football analogy, in which I said McCain, in a home game (foreign policy) beat Obama 21-17, but failed to cover the six-point spread — Sarah Palin, in a reverse result, lost 24-14 tonight, but earned a moral victory in covering the two touchdown pointspread Biden was laying.
October 3rd, 2008 at 8:43 am
Jason –
I think I agree with every one of your points.
October 3rd, 2008 at 10:56 am
10 and 12, thanks.
October 3rd, 2008 at 11:15 am
Excellent analysis, Jason, I totally agree…I’ve got to say, Palin needs to drop the schmaltzy-cutesy act before she starts eyeing the big time…the shuckjs and kicking the toe in the dirt motif wears thin pretty quick…also, am I the only one who was wondering about General McClellan…was she referring to George Brinton McClellan, commander of the Army of the Potomac circa 1861-62?
October 3rd, 2008 at 8:33 pm
You’re my new favorite commentator
Very fair, very accurate. I agree. And this: “It’s a bad year and a bad time in the cycle to be put in a position of arguing conservative principles.” is essentially the essence of everything. Unless something major happens, this is what it reverts to….On a side note, I wonder whether your definition makes me an independent…quite possibly.