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ABC News/Washington Post General Election
- Barack Obama 53% (50%)
- John McCain 43% (46%)
Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)
- Barack Obama 64% / 33% (+31%)
- John McCain 52% / 45% (+7%)
Who do you trust more to handle ________________?
- The war in Iraq: Obama 48% (45%); McCain 47% (50%)
- The U.S. campaign against terrorism: McCain 49% (52%); Obama 43% (44%)
- An unexpected major crisis: Obama 48% (44%); McCain 45% (50%)
- The economy: Obama 53% (50%); McCain 37% (43%)
- Taxes: Obama 52% (48%); McCain 41% (46%)
- Helping the middle class: Obama 59%; McCain 31%
- Protecting the Social Security system: Obama 51%; McCain 34%
- Health care: Obama 59% ; McCain 30%
Who do you think ___________________?
- is the stronger leader: Obama 54% (49%); McCain 40% (45%)
- would do more to bring needed change to Washington: Obama 61% (61%); McCain 29% (33%)
- better understands the economic problems people in this country are having: Obama 58% (55%); McCain 28% (36%)
- would do more to stand up to lobbyists and special interest groups: Obama 47%; McCain 39%
- is more honest and trustworthy: Obama 44%; McCain 40%
If McCain were elected president, do you think he’d mainly lead the country in a new direction, or mainly continue in George W. Bush’s direction?
- New direction 46% (46%)
- Same direction 51% (53%)
Do you think Obama does or does not have the kind of experience it takes to serve effectively as president?
- Does 54% (52%)
- Does not 45% (45%)
Do you think of Barack Obama as a safe or risky choice for president?
- Safe 55% (55%)
- Risky 45% (44%)
Do you think of John McCain as a safe or risky choice for president?
- Safe 50% (51%)
- Risky 50% (48%)
If Barack Obama were elected president, do you think your federal taxes would go up, down or stay about the same?
- Up 45%
- Down 19%
- About the same 33%
If John McCain were elected president, do you think your federal taxes would go up, down or stay about the same?
- Up 42%
- Down 11%
- About the same 44%
Do you think Barack Obama’s views on most issues are too liberal for you, too conservative for you, or just about right?
- Too liberal 37%
- Too conservative 4%
- About right 55%
Do you think John McCain’s views on most issues are too liberal for you, too conservative for you, or just about right?
- Too liberal 14%
- Too conservative 42%
- About right 39%
As a result of the two presidential debates that have been held, do you have a better opinion of (Obama/McCain), a worse opinion of him, or haven’t the debates changed your opinion of (Obama/McCain) one way or the other?
Obama
- Better 32%
- Worse 8%
- Has not changed 59%
McCain
- Better 12%
- Worse 26%
- Has not changed 60%
What do you think is the bigger risk – that Obama will put in place too many government regulations, or that McCain will not put enough government regulations in place?
- McCain, not enough regulations 47%
- Obama, too many regulations 38%
Survey of 766 likely voters was conducted October 8-11. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 39% (D); 30% (R); 27% (I). Results from the poll conducted September 27-29 are in parentheses.
October 13th, 2008 at 1:55 am
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi last week said a $150 billion economic stimulus plan was needed to help counteract a faltering economy shaken by a paralyzed banking system and steep stock market falls.
October 13th, 2008 at 3:38 am
Obama is running away with this.
Macca’s last stand in debate III.
Where have all the state polls gone? I want to see Ohio/North Carolina/Florida/Virginia.
October 13th, 2008 at 3:44 am
#1 And who’s posterior does she plan on extracting that little gift from? The only way she can pay for a second stimulus plan in addition to the $700 billion bailout and the Obama economic plan is to print more cash. Simple as that. The money just doesn’t exist. And one needs only to look at recent European and South American history to see the disasterous results when a government starts printing money to solve crises.
The average person has no clue what is really going on with this whole “bailout” plan. If voters think things are bad now, just wait. They ain’t seen nuthin yet.
Two words: BUY GOLD.
October 13th, 2008 at 8:37 am
McCain’s ballyhooed “retooling” speech today needs to be a miracle for him to get back in this race. National is bad, but the battlegrounds are worse for him.
October 13th, 2008 at 8:39 am
Party ID Breakdown – 39% D and 30% R. Can we trust this as being accurate?
I have been saying that we can not rely on polls to be wrong or on a Bradley effect. I still stand by that statement.
I want to be ahead in the polls regardless. That being said, there are some things to keep in mind:
1. This poll, like many others, may be oversampling Democrats. I am willing to believe that the Democratic Party has
an advantage here, I am just not sure that it is 9%. 3-4% would sound more reasonable.
2. McCain consistently overperforms his poll numbers while Obama consistently underperforms (think about the Democratic
primaries in PA and OH as examples).
3. There is still time for October surprises by either party.
What this means is if we can get the RCP average down to a 2-3 point advantage for Obama, then I like our chances.
We can not depend on the polls to be wrong, but I am a bit sceptical of their weighting. I do think that McCain is still
behind, but I am not thinking landslide territory yet.
October 13th, 2008 at 8:53 am
PUMA’s reporting support for Obama when polled… I estimate this as 4-8%+ of Obama’s polling numbers… of course this will be reported as racist bradley effect on election day
October 13th, 2008 at 9:06 am
#5 and all, Alot has been talked about the Bradley effect. I think that people are counting on more in that for McCain to win than him in some ways developing an economic message and presenting it well. Its almost like people think he cant do that. Anyway, I agree with a few other on here that is somethiing that may have an effect but for McCain not to count on it.
Ramusseen had an interesting article on this effect. I am old enough who was almost a teenager during this time period. Here is a portion of the article. I will try to post the link in my follow up paragraph.
“You could not watch cable news last week without hearing about “the Bradley effect” — a term spawned after Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley lost the California gubernatorial election to state Attorney General George Deukmejian in 1982 by one point, despite pre-election polls that showed Bradley, who was black, had a seven-point lead.
But “the Bradley effect” was not the election-turning factor that some people saw. As Mark DiCamillo of the Field Poll explained, a number of factors, including a higher-than-expected turnout of gun owners, led to the discrepancy in that 1982 race. DiCamillo believes that some white voters said they were undecided even though they had decided to vote for Deukmejian, and those undecided white voters were key in the undecided pool because most black voters had made up their minds to vote for Bradley.
Also, the pre-election polls were off because black turnout was lower than expected. If DiCamillo had to put a number on white voters who said they were coy about voting for the white Deukmejian, it would be “two to three points at the most.” And that was 26 years ago”
October 13th, 2008 at 9:11 am
To follwu up. We know the African American turn out will be very high. It was 88% in 2004 for the Dems and it is expected to be about 10% higher. Overall it probably wont make a huge difference but in states like NC, VA and NC we can already see how its either put McCain behind or withint he MOE.
A message is needed for McCain, a clear, good economic message. Winning a debate would help too. There ecnonomy looks good today but that has been a see saw for awhile…………
Hello I went back to ramussen and it was on yesterdays page, they have udpated it but if anyone can find the link please post it otherwise, I will look later today and post it
October 13th, 2008 at 11:29 am
John McCain lost the election on the day his campaign pulled that screwy, wacked-out political stunt of suspending his campaign to go to Washington, to “save the economy”. What a bunch of losers….no pun intended.
October 13th, 2008 at 11:51 am
Thats of course after he stated “the fundamentals of economy are still strong”…
October 13th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Pea-jay, your’e a dem mole and you know it.
The fundementals of the economy ARE STILL STRONG. The market rebounded over 500 points today. I was talking about a dumb political stunt by McCain.