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A few months ago I received some criticism for saying we were either in a recession or were likely to enter one.
Right now it appears we’re in a recession even if questionable government statistics don’t show it yet.
We’ve never lost jobs for as many months as we have now without already being in a recession. That was already true in July. That suggests some government statistics may be too optimistic with their assumptions.
Let me cut to the chase. We’re going to be in a recession (and a jobless recovery) for at least 18-24 months.
The next President is going to have a rough first term. If they do anything to spook business we could be looking at Great Depression #2.
My big fear is that Barack Obama will push a tax increase “on the rich” through the liberal Democrat Congress in his first term. That’s a sure way to turn this recession into a Depression.
I’m no economic conservative but I’m an economist. Raising taxes on ANYONE in the next year is economically insane.
I’m afraid the Democrats will push protectionism through Congress and Barack Obama will be forced to sign it as populism surges through our population. That’s a sure way to tighten credit markets and raise the prices of food, clothing and other consumer staples.
I’m afraid Democrats will push environmental regulations. At this time putting cap-and-trade in place would cause the majority of manufacturing workers to lose their jobs. This regulation would probably cause us to lose 10-15% of our GDP if put into place right now during a recession. Even modest environmental regulations could force hundreds of thousands of workers out of work.
In general, all of Obama’s economic plans are recipes for disaster. Our only hope is that Barack Obama is a liar who will betray his supporters and listen to the Bob Rubins in his party and not the Pelosis, Kennedys and Reids.
Do you think Obama is lying in order to exaggerate his liberalism in this election?
It appears to me that Obama is lying to hide his liberalism. We’re not getting Ronald Reagan this year. We’re probably getting Ted Kennedy.
Either way if you have a lot of savings, I’d put them in Swiss Franc denominated hard assets if Barack is elected. America is not a safe place for your money with a leftist novice in charge of a once in 100 years crisis.
I’ve got confidence in McCain to do only one thing:
To not make things worse.
Obama seems to be running on policies that are economic suicide. I hope he’s just pretending to be a liberal for the campaign.
Yeah, I know. Wishful thinking.
October 15th, 2008 at 7:11 pm
I live in Wisconsin, and I would like to see a discussion post about today’s decision by the RNC to pull ads in Wisconsin and Maine in favor of gearing resources to protect Colorado, Virginia, and other red states.
What does everyone think? Is this the right move?
October 15th, 2008 at 7:18 pm
Unfortunately for Republicans (especially those eyeing 2012), even Obama seems to understand that.
October 15th, 2008 at 7:20 pm
Doug, as only an arm-chair economist, I say you’ve got it right. You don’t even have to be Keynsean to see that the recipe offered by Obama and the burgeoning Dem Congressional majorities is a recipe for deepening a recession: stricter regulations against productive work and higher taxes.
Unfortunately, both parties at the time seem to be stuck in the bubble mentality that got us into this mess. Even if the Repubs and McCain are less likely to do what’s worst, they also seem to believe that the way to fight immanent bankruptcies and failed, irresponsible loans is to pump money borrowed against future economic activity to prevent the bankruptcies and the resetting of asset values.
The idea seems to be shared by both parties that if spending, loose and easy money, and high debts got us into this mess, we should respond by getting the government involved in borrowing against the future to back irresponsible private borrowers and lenders of today.
One term of Obama may actually lead the country to shift its attitude, either by an on-the-job epiphany of Bam and his Dems or by a out-of-office reeducation experience on the part of the GOP.
October 15th, 2008 at 7:21 pm
Aron, I don’t trust Obama. Obama has a pretty good record of lying in his campaigns. I hope Bob Rubin got a hold of Barack and shook some sense into him. We will see.
October 15th, 2008 at 7:23 pm
#1. I live in Wisconsin too. Madison. On my way home from work tonight there were 2 separate stop lights where groups of 3-4 Obama supporters had “spontaneously” appeared and were standing with homemade Obama signs. Every other car was honking at them in support. Granted, this is Madison, but turnout for Obama is going to be 95% for Obama in Dane Kounty. Combine that with black/liberal turnout in Milwaukee and McCain has no chance here unless the polls have an error of +/- 20%.
It’s over in Wisconsin. At best, 2008 will be a repeat of 2000, and that’s even wishful thinking.
People in Wisconsin are conservative in personality only. Not in politics.
October 15th, 2008 at 7:28 pm
#3, I could see a lot of people having an out-of-office reeducation experience. A lot of griping unemployed workers may learn that the government punishing employers doesn’t make them hire more employees.
I wonder how many years of unemployment it will take for the average moderate to figure out liberal economic ideology doesn’t work?
October 15th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
I meant to add that I’ve been absolutely amazed at the gleeful triumphalism of the left and the MSM “centrist” punditry pouring ink out on editorials crowing about how capitalism has finally failed, and it is now time for the state to take on even more responsibilities. What the heck?
It is true that our national, state, and local governments have tackled expensive projects beyond the basics of defense, law enforcement, and general infrastructure. In fact, they’ve all spent the past several years borrowing against their own assets to expand “well-intentioned” goodies to bribe taxpayers. They’ve grown entitlements, ranging from health care to pensions to education, all on the installment plan.
The next necessity, more essential than ever before, is for government to become more focused on the essentials and to stop taking on new domains in overlapping jurisdictions. I believe we need to refurbish much of our creaking infrastructure and privatize any and everything we can while remembering we’ve got to keep up our defenses while maintaining the rule of law at home.
October 15th, 2008 at 7:31 pm
Yes.
WI RCP Average: Obama 52.4%, McCain 42.0% (+10.4%)
Quinnipiac (10/8-12) Obama +17
Rasmussen (10/6) Obama +10
Research 2000 (10/5-6) Obama +10
SurveyUSA (10/5-6) Obama +10
VA RCP Average: Obama 51.6%, McCain 43.0% (+8.6%) – Rasmussen has it Obama +3.
CO RCP Average: Obama 50.4%, McCain 44.6% (+5.8%) – CNN/Time and Suffolk have it Obama +4.
FL RCP Average: Obama 49.8%, McCain 45.0% (+4.8%)
OH RCP Average: Obama 48.9%, McCain 45.5% (+3.4%)
MO RCP Average: Obama 48.8%, McCain 47.0% (+1.8)
October 15th, 2008 at 7:33 pm
Maxpwr #5 I live in Madison too. West Gilman St. near State St. literally next door to the Obama primary office. what irony. I agree Wisconsin is lost, but it shows how bleak McCain’s chances really are. He is completely on defense.
October 15th, 2008 at 7:39 pm
You’re obviously a horrible economist since you are obviously unaware of the beige book that declared we are in a recession. Obama doesn’t even have an econ degree and he makes more sense than you.
October 15th, 2008 at 7:48 pm
#9. I’m in a community outside Madison where more normal people live and even here there are plenty of Obama signs. No way could I live downtown like you.
If you hear a guy driving around blasting REM’s “It’s the End of the World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine)” with his windows rolled down in October in Wisconsin, that’s me. I especially like to play it for the guy on University Ave. every morning who rides around with a big 3′x5′ “Earth Flag” on the back of his bicycle.
We’re screwed. Good thing I cling to God and guns. Though the guns will be gone in the next 4 years.
October 15th, 2008 at 7:57 pm
The Bam solution relies on the idea that if excessive debt got us into this mess, going further into debt will get us out. Only, what’s happening right now is diminishing the economy’s ability to produce tax income. Bam’s and the Dem’s plans to punish Wall Street will drive global finance overseas; technology and the end of the easy-money bubble will undermine the wealthy in Hollywood — and all these folks are supposed to pay higher taxes on reduced assets.
If you’re not rolling on the floor in fits of black-humor-inspired laughter, you’re in for a lot of emotional pain before the real economic pain sets in.
October 15th, 2008 at 8:01 pm
Doug,
What I fear is that Obama is a pragmatic socialist who would patiently wait until he was re-elected before implementing the tax hikes he’s promised for the past year and a half to a class warfare-driven Democratic electorate.
October 15th, 2008 at 8:20 pm
#10, Wrong the Fed said the recession risk had risen. It didn’t say we were in an actual recession smartass.