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This has got to be the first poll of the 2012 GOP primary. It can’t tell us much about 2012 but it can tell us something about today:
If John McCain is not elected president, which one of the following three possible candidates would you be most likely to support for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012?
- Mitt Romney 35%
- Mike Huckabee 26%
- Sarah Palin 20%
Sarah Palin may have inspired Republican voters but that doesn’t appear to translate to Republican voter loyalty even for a hypothetical primary.
October 24th, 2008 at 11:55 pm
Why post this garbage. The election is not even over yet! And I won’t lie, I am so sick of the last year it is not even funny. Just 2 more weeks!
October 24th, 2008 at 11:59 pm
I thought that this poll was pretty interesting, don’t know if I trust it but it may prove to be a baseline. I still think that Palin is the odds on favorite and that this poll might be mostly name id driven.
October 25th, 2008 at 12:01 am
MVRed, I’m posting this garbage because I’m sure a lot of readers will find it interesting.
The poll suggests there are some complex feelings about Sarah Palin among Republicans.
October 25th, 2008 at 12:05 am
Yay Mitt! Boo Huckabee. Yay Sarah!
October 25th, 2008 at 12:07 am
Doug.. I didn’t want to come off angry there, because I wasn’t. I just think it’s ridiculous the folks at Newsweek would post something like this.. By any chance did they do one for the Democrat?
Is this true:
http://xeniagazette.1upmonitor.com/main.asp?SectionID=17&SubSectionID=452&ArticleID=161386&TM=85035.18
October 25th, 2008 at 12:21 am
Doug,
Please take this down. We will have 4 years to analyze polls like this should John McCain lose.
October 25th, 2008 at 12:33 am
I’m sorry but the complaints about Palin are largely out of ignorance. Look at everything she has said or done in her life before she was handcuffed by the McCain campaign. She is simply amazing, everything you could want in a republican politician.
October 25th, 2008 at 12:34 am
Folks tend to forget that the Republican electorate is not the same thing as the activist base. The base likes Kemp and Dupont. The voters pick Bush. The base supports Forbes and Buchanan. The voters pick Dole. The base likes Keyes and Bauer. The voters pick Bush. The base likes Fred and Rudy and Mitt and Huck. The voters pick McCain.
A few months ago I was sitting in a bar and I met a proud John Warner Republican, that is to say, an old liberal Virginia Republican who probably had more in common with Gerald Ford than Ronald Reagan. As we talked politics, I was surprised to hear him express warm and almost glowing views towards Romney, who I assumed would have alienated this chap with his so-con moves during the primaries. I think Romney helped himself a lot by repackaging himself as a fiscally center-right technocrat during the NH and MI primaries (when he stopped talking about social issues after losing IA to Huck) and when he bowed out in a classy manner at the end. I think that Romney has a strong shot at the nod in 2012 if he runs as a fiscally conservative inventive type who is pro-life but who is otherwise not a cultural warrior.
October 25th, 2008 at 12:43 am
Exactly what I thought it would be.
1) Romney
2) Huckabee
3) Palin
Is the pecking order.
Doesn’t mean that things might not change but at the moment that’s where things stand.
And if Mccain/Palin loses by 150 EC’s it’s all downhill for her you would have to think.
October 25th, 2008 at 12:49 am
Keep your eyes on Huckabee and Romney. Palin might not even run.
October 25th, 2008 at 12:59 am
JA,
Name ID could only be helping Palin. Anybody who paid attention in the primaries enough to know who Romney is knows Palin. About 50 million more people paid attention to Palin’s debate than ever watched Romney debate. Ad in SNL, Couric Gibson, the Convention and I would be surprised if any GOP politician outside of Bush has a higher name ID than Palin (even more than McCain).
DaveG has it right regarding the way Romney handled himself since Iowa. If Romney runs he will win.
October 25th, 2008 at 1:18 am
Kind of a motley crew. I don’t like those options. I hope Newt runs.
October 25th, 2008 at 1:28 am
God I love Mitt Romney. Best idea guy since Gingrich.
October 25th, 2008 at 1:59 am
Rudy Giuliani
He is firm, and determine
but forget the rendeavous
Mc Cain will win !
TK
October 25th, 2008 at 2:10 am
Wow, the body isn’t even cold yet.
October 25th, 2008 at 2:27 am
McCain camp behind racist hoax.
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/mccain_aide_gave_reporters_inc.php
October 25th, 2008 at 3:09 am
I think Palin has been ruined and her career destroyed by John McCain. She has become a modern day Dan Quayle. She won’t make it out of 2012.
The future star of the Party should be included in future polls:
Bobby Jindal 2012!
October 25th, 2008 at 3:11 am
We shouldn’t be talking about this yet. We have 3 years to reconstuct our party even if we lose this year. That being said, there’s at least half a dozen good Republicans in the running for 2012.
October 25th, 2008 at 4:48 am
and with a deep and long recession caused by retarded democrat policies Romney will be just what the doctor ordered and what the people want come primary time. If the dems do win I have no doubt we’ll be going straight to recession and possibly depression. I don’t like saying that because my degree is in economics but it is a reality.
October 25th, 2008 at 5:25 am
I really think that this poll is unwise because we first need to win now, not 4 years from now. Both Mr. Romney and Mr. Huckabee have experience, but they need to expand their bases to go over the top and united the party. As much as I like Mrs. Palin and she can unify the two camps, she might not be the best candidate either (win or lose 2008.) Win or lose, Mr. McCain might run again, perhaps Mr. Jindal just to name a few scenarios.
Being a Huckabee supporter in 2008, I would naturally lean towards him in 2012. However, there are no perfect candidates and I promise my vote to nobody. Who know what the issues will be in 2012. Perhaps Mr. Huckabee will be the man for the times and perhaps Mr. Romney will be. But, let this be a warning to both Mr. Romney and Mr. Huckabee (and who ever else) if I feel that somebody is trying to sabotage Mrs. Palin, I will not only support Mrs. Palin automatically in the primary out of protest, I will refuse to back the man who beat her in the primary. If the winner of the 2012 primary is not responsible for trying to sabotage Mrs. Palin in 2008, he has my support in the general election.
October 25th, 2008 at 6:38 am
Mr McCain might run again if he loses?
Say what?
October 25th, 2008 at 6:53 am
Guys we can walk and chew gum at the same time. I will be working hard for John McCain over the next 10 days and do everything I can to help him get elected. If that doesn’t happen, then starting on Nov. 5 I will support Mitt Romney for the Republican nomination in 2012. It’s that simple.
October 25th, 2008 at 7:14 am
I’m suprised Huckabee still has that much support, especially after the way he has conducted himself.
October 25th, 2008 at 8:18 am
Let me clarify, he might run again if he wins. However, if he does not win, many scenarios can unfold, but I for one will not support a candidate who sabotages Mrs. Palin, win or lose.
October 25th, 2008 at 8:25 am
Only 4 short years left. We’re entering the final stages……….
October 25th, 2008 at 9:03 am
Heath – “Mr McCain might run again if he loses?”
I happen to think that McCain’s chances in 2012 (should he lose in 2008) would be very poor – but never count him out (he would still be younger than Reagan was at the end of his term). I think that the most likely scenario is that there will be many recriminations and criticisms of McCain’s campaign, especially from the base. It will be interesting to see if Palin distances herself somewhat from McCain after the election or if she keeps him as an ally, appropriating his campaign apparatus and fundraising and email lists. So to sum up, the party will likely turn on McCain, but don’t count him out entirely for 2012, he’s been down before, but his chances are quite slim.
October 25th, 2008 at 9:24 am
Let’s have little straight talk here, if John McCain would have won in 2000 over George W Bush, Al Gore would be in his last three month of goverment.
October 25th, 2008 at 9:26 am
This narrative that McCain has a habit of being down and coming back is a fairytail. Let us recall that McCain was the favorite going into the primary, but not in IA. Romney came along and took the lead in IA and NH. Once Huckabee beat Romney in IA and that paper trashed Romney, McCain was the only guy left standing. Frankly, if Romney weren’t mormon he would be the nominee. So there was no miracle comeback for McCain.
October 25th, 2008 at 9:48 am
wake up people!!!! the 2008 election is in 10 days and we’re wasting time and energy debating 2012… sheesh! get on board, or shutup for 10 days
October 25th, 2008 at 10:32 am
I voted for McCain/Palin last Sat. Both my son and my son-in-law believe that McCain will win. I wish I was as optimistic as they are.
October 25th, 2008 at 10:35 am
I am keeping my Romney bobblehead doll for 2012 if McCain doesn’t win.
October 25th, 2008 at 10:41 am
One thing that I find interesting about the Politico report:
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=33A79FEE-18FE-70B2-A89B82E0E4361B64
(I know consider the source), about Palin going ‘rogue,’ is how much superior Palin’s own political instincts are then the establishmentarian cudgel of advisors she’s bound to. Should Palin go ‘rogue’ and adopt a guerilla type, insurgent campaign, she just might win this thing for McCain – carrying him across the finish line on her strong shoulders.
Herein lies a life lesson in politics for Palin – never accept at face value the advice of washed up campaign advisors and politicos, trust your own instincts. Herein also lies the incredible position and opportunity that Palin could find herself in in 2012, should McCain lose. Palin will retain the name ID and gravitas of being a VP nominee (a decidedly ‘insider’ position) but still could mount a credible insurgent or guerilla rogue campaign ( a very outsider position). If Palin runs in 2012, and I believe that she will be the frontrunner, she should learn from her campaign imprisonment and mishandling of 2008 and advance a campaign more modeled on the ‘Buchanan Brigade’ or even the Ron Paul campaign then the safe, cautious and politically calculating efforts of a Bob Dole or Mitt Romney – in other words, ‘let it rip.’ She should cede the ground of ‘insider’ and ‘establishment’ to Mitt and Huck and run a totally outside of the box campaign – the people will love her for it and her iconic status will only grow.
October 25th, 2008 at 10:44 am
Nothing to see here people… back to the business of getting John McCain elected (or at least getting Obama NOT elected).
October 25th, 2008 at 10:50 am
romney
palin
jindal
gingrich
retraeus
October 25th, 2008 at 10:50 am
romney
palin
jindal
gingrich
petraeus
October 25th, 2008 at 11:08 am
Romney/Jindal ‘12. That is all.
October 25th, 2008 at 11:20 am
Romney in 2012 – Hopefully there will still be enough of a country left for him to save.
October 25th, 2008 at 11:23 am
What do y’all think of Fred as RNC chair (if he decides not to run in 2012)?
October 25th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
I think this entry is appropriate because, as some have said, it relevantly speaks to the controversial issue of how popular Sarah Palin may be. I agree with those who claim the McCain folks botched the roll-out of Palin (her initial one-on-one interviews needed to be with friendly interrogators until she became much more comfortable with national and international issues), but I am not so sure she ever had the intellectual heft for this level of politics to begin with (sorry to sound elitist, but attending five different institutions to obtain a four-year undergraduate degree?).
As to 2012, I think Rafael (in #17) has it correct. And sorry to offend folks by talking 2012, but I do so because McCain is toast – the polls showing it close have under-represented the party identification advantage Democrats will have when all the votes are counted, which is how they are able to claim a neck-and-neck race (we know Republicans are going to get waxed in congressional races, and those voters are not going to split their tickets and vote for McCain); McCain has run the 1992 campaign of George H.W. Bush all over again, thinking he could convince voters that his international and military messages suffice for support, and having no coherent economic message or vision when that is tantamount to what people want to hear, while being incredulous that the nation could elect so inexperienced and liberal a person as his opponent. When the GOP nominates candidates who are all tactics and no strategy – like George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, and John McCain – they run the risk of failing to connect with voters in tough times.
October 25th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
JA Pruce (in #39), my view is that while the RNC chair needs to be telegenic in the modern age, it is also crucial that they understand campaign metrics and machinations at the grass roots level, as well as fundraising. To me this makes one of the GOP state chairs, as long as they meet the telegenic threshold and have been winning gubernatorial and congressional and state legislature races in their jurisdiction, the best choice. Right now I like Katon Dawson, the South Carolina state GOP chair for the job. What is usually not best is to make a state or national GOP chair out of someone who is looking to run for elective office in the future (though Haley Barbour would be a noteworthy exception to the rule).
Fred Thompson will serve best as a party elder who does commentary, an occasional television appearance, and lots of fund-raising for the party. He does not have, frankly (as his presidential campaign reflected), the energy or managerial savvy or attention to detail or patience mollifying the grass roots necessary to run the Republican National Committee, it seems to me.
October 25th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
The poll is relevant to the 2008 election. Sara may be no more than an exciting media blip. Just the other day there was a post saying she was supported by 86% of the base. Of course she is, so would anybody be with an (R). That poll puts her up against nobody. In this Newsweek poll we see some people share Colin Powell’s view of her.
October 25th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
As I tell every campaign caller (they keep calling me for donations because they know I donated to McCain many times earlier this year ), the day he insulted Americans by selecting Palin, McCain lost my vote. And it all backfired on him — the women he thought he would cultimate vehemnently dislike her; the women he would have gotten (include me) have deserted him; and the evangelicals she has enthused would have loved Huckabee even more. In fact, the only people who still are devote Palin supporters were her original supporters who lobbied to get her chosen in the first place. In the end, like everyone else, I had my favorites, but anyone — including Lieberman — would have worked for me. But even I have limits. By the way, remember Ted? Where did he go?
IF Palin survives her Alasan woes (and that is a big “if”), she will probably be stupid enough to attempt to run — because she clearly has no political instinct. She will be eaten alive.
Keep your eyes on Romney and Huckabee — to the extent either or both of them run, I suspect they will end up on a ticket together, although I don’t know in what order. Actually in 2008, I suspect that if either Romney or Huckabee would have been nominated, each would have selected the other as VP. They probably would have lost, but at least we would have gone done in dignity.
For you die-heart Palin supporters — give it up. It is amusing to read about the negativity between McCain and Palin (trust me that story will grow after the election) — each of them is politically naive enough to think the other ruined his/her career. In truth, McCain should have stayed loyal to his instincts, and Palin should have remained in Alaska — she was lucky to get that far. She had NO business being on a national stage — and the quicker she exits, the best for the party.
October 25th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
We would be on the verge of victory right now had Romney been the nominee. That said, the race isn’t lost yet, so our focus needs to be on salvaging this mess and letting people know the economic darkness that will descend on us all if Obama wins. Obama is an abomination on so many levels that it behooves us all to call our friends and acquaintances to alert them to the threat.
October 25th, 2008 at 3:14 pm
Speaking of the next RNC chair, South Carolina state chair Katon Dawson is wasting no time trying to lead the national GOP resurgence. His mantra: Renew, Reform, Restore – http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/katons_confab_renew_reform_res.php.
October 25th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
If any of those 3 get nominated in 2012, get yourselves ready for a second Obama term.
October 25th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
1. Romney
2. Jindal
3. Guiliani
October 25th, 2008 at 7:59 pm
I think we can all agree that Romney and Jindal ARE our future (Ryan & Cantor in about 12 years).
October 25th, 2008 at 8:05 pm
I wonder why is every body talking about Republican loose????
WE WILL WIN !
WHO ARE WE ??
MAVERICKS SIR ! !
October 25th, 2008 at 8:56 pm
Guys also pay attention to Congressman Jeff Flake from Arizona, he is a Libertarian-Republican. If McCain was to lose, and the country goes into socialism under Obama many Americans will be angry ala Jimmy Carter. He voted agianst the bailout and is opposed to any futher regulations on businesses. Also he is more vicious than McCain when it comes to pork barrell spending. In fact he calls out fellow members of congress on the floor and demands them to defend their earmarks. Esquire magazine has called Flake one of the best in congress, Esquire is not known as a conservative publication.