AP-GfK Battleground States Survey
Florida
- Barack Obama 45%
- John McCain 43%
Colorado
- Barack Obama 50%
- John McCain 41%
Pennsylvania
- Barack Obama 52%
- John McCain 40%
Virginia
- Barack Obama 49%
- John McCain 42%
Nevada
- Barack Obama 52%
- John McCain 40%
New Hampshire
- Barack Obama 55%
- John McCain 37%
North Carolina
- Barack Obama 48%
- John McCain 46%
Survey of 600-628 likely voters was conducted October 22-26. The margin of error is +/- 3.9-4.0 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: FL: 50% (D), 44% (R); CO: 47% (D), 45% (R); PA: 56% (D), 38% (R); VA: 48% (D), 43% (R); NV: 54% (D), 40% (R); NH: 50% (D), 36% (R); NC: 56% (D), 41% (R).
October 29th, 2008 at 11:33 am
Thess polls are a joke – in CO republicans still have a + 4% advantage over Dems even with the increased Dem registration since 2004. I highly doubt Nevada has a 14% difference either. These polls are laughable.
October 29th, 2008 at 11:39 am
I was just gonna say that. Obama is up only 2 with Dems at plus 14 party ID (it shoukd be even party ID, or at most Dem plus 2). NV was 40-36 REPUBLICAN in 2004. so it is probably even or Dem up slightly on Reps. CO still has a 4 pt GOP advantage. VA was a GOP advantage of 3 in 2006. It is probably GOP plus 1 this year (NOT DEM +5!). NO way does PA have a 18 pt Dem advantage. 6 or 7 at most. Dems outregister Reps in FL by 4, but in 2006 the actual vote was Rep +3 (and Obama’s only up 2).
This means VA and CO are close (VA probably closer) and that Obama has a slight lead in PA and NH. FL, NC, and NV should be fine.
Mike is the party registration breakdown GOP +4??
October 29th, 2008 at 11:40 am
up 2 in NORTH CAROLINA w/ Dem plus 14.
October 29th, 2008 at 5:52 pm
NH -55-38 . Why are BOTH the Clintons there?They have been sent to get that secret vote Hillary got in the primaries.
October 30th, 2008 at 3:02 am
[...] if he could hold on to Virginia and Colorado — two states Bush carried handily in 2004. But McCain trails in Colorado by as much as 9 points with the aggregate of all polls making it about a 7 point [...]