I grew up along the Michigan/Indiana border, in a hybrid region known to locals as “Michiana.” I know Indiana. I am not surprised that it became a blue state this year. In fact, I said that it might do just that several months ago. Here’s what I said about Indiana’s blue-fication in late April:
The advantage of growing up in the heart of the Rust Belt on the Michigan/Indiana border was that I could inhale the political climate of both states, and absorb the vast differences that come with a man-made state line. Indiana, like Michigan, was one of the original Republican states that coalesced around Mr. Lincoln and the Union. It was part of the old school, Midwestern, empirical Republicanism of men like William McKinley of Ohio and Everett Dirksen of Illinois. But while Michigan became light blue, Illinois became dark blue, and Ohio became purple, Indiana remained an ebullient red — the only solid red state left north of the Ohio River.
That is, until now.
Indiana experienced a 20-point swing between 2004 and 2008. Bush won it by 21, Obama won it by 1. That may be the largest swing experienced by any state between the last cycle and this one. Colorado and Virginia both experienced double-digit swings, but neither moved by fully 20 points. That’s a big deal.
I’m not saying that Indiana is becoming another Illinois. It will always be more conservative than its neighbors. But ultimately, Indiana is still a Northern state. A Rust Belt state. A state that was part of the Union, not the Confederacy. A state that has more in common with Ohio and Michigan than with Louisiana and Mississippi.
On Tuesday, Mitch Daniels won a second term as governor of Indiana. He won reelection easily by an 18-point margin in a year that was toxic for Republicans, especially in the North. Daniels won 58% of the vote while John McCain only won 49% of the vote. That means about 9% of Indiana voters split their ballots between Obama and Daniels. That’s significant. That means that Daniels was acceptable to voters for whom McCain/Palin was not acceptable.
Perhaps Republicans should look to Mitch Daniels when trying to figure out how to win back the millions of voters who voted for Bush in 2004 and for Obama this year. Or to discover how to win statewide office outside of Dixie and the Plains States. After all, he’s already pretty much accomplished both of those things. And while the 2012 roster is already getting full, if Obama wins a second term, Daniels just may be the sort of center-right, technocratic Northern Republican who can take the White House back for the GOP in 2016.
November 9th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
OH a Veep Choice is also possible.
November 9th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
Hey!
No stealng. Actually, that’s where I got the name for mymanmitt. Although, that was phase from bush for mitch, probably best to avoid it’s use.
November 9th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
Can I be the first to suggest a unity ticket of Mitch Daniels and Mickey Kantor so we can have Mitch and Mickey in 2012?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v8NGYoyRR6U
November 9th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
BTW, in all seriousness, it does somewhat sadden my heart that we are now talking about putting candidates on the ticket that could help us carry Indiana…how times have changed.
November 9th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
It is interesting to see Jeb Bush on top of the column now. In fact, his father was of the opinion that Jeb should carry the stick for the Bushes rather than Dubya. probably many desasters could have been avoided.
November 9th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
JA Pruce, yes, times have changed. Indiana definitely is more representative of current domestic issues than, say AZ, AK, LA etc.
November 9th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
I like Mitch Daniels on a personal level but he has some baggage from the Iraq War and from his time in the Bush administration.
The landslide election of Mitch Daniels is a pretty clear sign that the right sort of social conservative can win big.
November 9th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
DaveG, can you highlight for us the political/philosophical flavor of Mitch Daniels and his operational style as governor? I remember him from his days in D.C. but he might be an interesting study as governor. Btw, the points you make regarding the implications of losing in Indiana are serious. Add to that Virginia AND North Carolina. What’s next–Arizona? Nebraska? GEORGIA? TEXAS?
November 9th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
Mitch won reelection because he’s running my state like a business. Our budget is balanced and new jobs are arriving every year. He’s marketed himself as a politician like none other on the state level. Instead of running around as a republican, he’s got his own recognizable green emblem and message of reform. Sure, he’s a trustworthy republican and conservative, but the party in Indiana belongs to him, and not he to the party… he’s got his own ideas, they just happen to what most republicans stand for.
November 9th, 2008 at 4:28 pm
#9 – Sounds like just what the doctor is ordering for the GOP as a whole.
November 9th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
#5 Eric — You mentioned Jeb Bush pictured atop this page. I have been wondering why. Has he been mentioned as a serious candidate? If so, by whom? Anybody know?
November 9th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
Daniels is considered to be just short of a Mike Huckabee fiscally, by organizations like CATO and The Club for Growth. He raised taxes big; I think CATO gave him a D for his term. This compares to the B a supposed fiscal moderate Tim Pawlenty got in their 2008 report card. So I’m not sure Daniels will fly too well as a party unifier.
November 9th, 2008 at 5:24 pm
But even with Daniels apparently receiving a C from CATO, that’s such a huge improvement from where we were before he got elected… we’re on the way up!
November 9th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
A lot of Huckabee’s problem was that he wasn’t a team player. He attacked economic conservatives and libertarians several times during the race for 2008. He pretty much attacked anyone who disagreed with him. That’s why they threatened to head for the door.
I don’t see fiscal conservatives making similar threats with Pawlenty or Daniels. Neither have shown a contempt for economic conservatism. Neither is an ideologue by any means, but either would be effective in a year when Republicans are hungry to win back the WH and willing to go pragmatic, i.e., probably 2016 as opposed to 2012.
November 9th, 2008 at 6:49 pm
Can I also point out on DaveG;s behalf that he was widely mocked & scorned for saying that Indiana could go blue, by people who continued to predict that McCain would win right up tuntil the final day.
DaveG, you got it right.
November 9th, 2008 at 7:53 pm
JayPe, you’re absolutely right. I swore there was no way that McCain could ever loose Indiana. I guess I should have said there was no way Obama would ever get over 50% (he ended up with only 49.9%… prime for GOP picking in 2012).
November 9th, 2008 at 8:39 pm
gee, the symmetries are getting creepy here.
A failed president – Carter, Bush Jr.
A transformative movement to define a new age – Reagan, Obama
After 8 years the opposition comes up with – Dukakis, Daniels.
November 9th, 2008 at 9:56 pm
I live near Indy. Daniels may be a social conservative, but he doesn’t stress those issues at all. He stresses innovation, jobs, healthcare and attracting/retaining business. He’s not doctrinaire on tax issues, it’s true. He wanted to raise the tobacco tax, though that doesn’t bother me much at all. He also wanted to raise the tax rate on successful folks a few years ago, before I arrived here. I think he dropped that idea. But all in all, he’s an excellent governor, with a moderate personna but excellent practical ability to lead organizations successfully. He reminds of Mark Warner, actually, accept Daniels is an R.
November 9th, 2008 at 11:27 pm
Tano: In no way can you equate Daniels with Dukakis.
Marksal: You’re right, Daniels doesn’t ever stress social issues (from what I remember). When (if) it is ever an issue, I’m sure he’ll take a conservative stand on it whether it be stem cell research funding, parent notification, etc. His main focus is our economy… which is also our biggest problem – that’s why he won reelection: he knows what’s wrong and how to fix it.
November 10th, 2008 at 1:57 am
Merkis – why not?
Dukakis was a widely-admired technocrat, voted best governor in the country by the national governors association. Boring but seen as very competent. If anything I’m being unfair to him equating him to Daniels.
November 10th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
# 11 Chris L, isn’t it interesting, whom could we ask for an answer to our question, who put up Jeb Bush and why?.
Is he a candidate? Should he be one? Maybe he should be one.
November 11th, 2008 at 2:39 pm
Mitch was lucky that his challenger wasn’t very strong, otherwise it would’ve been a lot closer.