GOPUSA.com conducted an extensive poll of Republicans, focusing on everything from policy positions to a hypothetical 2012 candidate field. The entire poll can be viewed here:
What is evident in the polling is that Republicans are pessimistic about their future, but oppose President Obama’s policies.
The survey shows what has happened as a result of turning away from core Republican beliefs. Conservatives still believe in those principles, but they don’t have faith right now in the party’s ability to carry through on those principles. When 27% of respondents feel that earmarks would not be a good issue because Republicans would look like hypocrites, then something is definitely wrong.
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Question 16 — Who is the future leader of the Republican Party?
- Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush — 2%
- GOPUSA President Bobby Eberle — 4%
- Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich — 17%
- Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee — 10%
- Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal —-%
- Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin — 20%
- Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney — 19%
- South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford — 6%
- Other — 8%
Question 15 — Who is the current leader of the Republican Party?
- RNC Chairman Michael Steele — 37%
- House Republican Leader John Boehner — 2%
- Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell — 1%
- Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich — 3%
- Radio Host Rush Limbaugh — 4%
- The Republican Party has no leader — 51%
- Other — 2%
Question 17 — What do you think is the most important domestic issue facing America today?
- 2nd Amendment Issues — 5%
- Abortion — 5%
- Border Security/Immigration — 12%
- Deficit/National Debt — 7%
- Drug Trafficking — 0%
- Economy — 8%
- Education — 0%
- Energy Policy — 1%
- Environment — 0%
- Gay Marriage — 1%
- Government Corruption — 9%
- Government Spending — 12%
- Housing — 0%
- Health Care — 0%
- Inflation — 0%
- Judicial Reform — 0%
- Moral Decline — 7%
- Privacy — 0%
- Private Property Rights — 0%
- Social Security Reform — 0%
- Socialism — 24%
- Tax Policy — 2%
- Other — 6%
Question 13 — What are your feelings about Republican prospects for success in the 2010 elections?
- Very confident — 8%
- Somewhat confident — 30%
- Somewhat worried — 26%
- Very worried — 30%
- Not sure — 6%
Question 3 — Please choose the response which best describes how the recent events in Washington have affected you as a Republican.
- I am motivated to help the Republican Party win back seats in 2010 because they have a better agenda than the Democrats — 24%
- I am motivated to help the Republican Party win back seats in 2010 because the Democrats are worse than the Republicans — 38%
- I am more discouraged than ever with the Republican Party and not likely to help Republicans in 2010 — 25%
- I am through with politics — 2%
- Not sure — 10%
Happy Birthday, Jason Bonham.
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Update #1:
Happy 19th Birthday, Alex Knepper.
March 23rd, 2009 at 12:24 pm
Interesting results, thanks for sharing, Kristofer.
Oh, and happy birthday Jason!
March 23rd, 2009 at 12:29 pm
Fox News programming note: Your World w/ Neil Cavuto (4pm Eastern)
Fred Thompson on AIG’s Bonus Tax!
He says it’s a disgrace and a violation of the constitution! Fred Thompson on why he thinks Republicans fell for the Democrats’ tax trap.
March 23rd, 2009 at 12:29 pm
It’s my birthday too, buddy!
March 23rd, 2009 at 12:30 pm
This is an online poll not a phone poll.
March 23rd, 2009 at 12:31 pm
I’m afraid that the republicans haven’t learned as well as the democrats that a crisis is a terrible thing to waste. We have low-hangin fruit right now, but we not moving fast enough.
We need to ditch Steele, (no Dawson please) – someone who doesn’t insert a foot every time the mouth opens.
We need new congresional leadership. Cantor is great, however.
We need to become united. Stop all the intra-party fights and get some discipline. If not, we won’t be able to make hay from Obama’s failures.
Hurry!
March 23rd, 2009 at 12:32 pm
Happy birthday Alex!
March 23rd, 2009 at 12:35 pm
Happy 19th, Knepper!
March 23rd, 2009 at 12:38 pm
Happy Birthday to you Jason and Alex, and many happy returns.
March 23rd, 2009 at 12:39 pm
Happy Birthday Alex!
March 23rd, 2009 at 12:52 pm
#5, Steele out earned Kaine in February – so, he can’t be doing that badly.
March 23rd, 2009 at 12:55 pm
This is an online poll not a phone poll.
Thanks, Doug. I was wondering about that. Obviously not to be taken very seriously then.
Happy birthday, Alex and Jason.
March 23rd, 2009 at 1:08 pm
10 Good fundraising, but he’s made a lot of unnecessary errors. He doesn’t seem to be that sharp. I hope I’m wrong.
March 23rd, 2009 at 2:09 pm
Update above!
Happy Birthday, Alex Knepper.
When I was 19……
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c16NYQPV3f4
March 23rd, 2009 at 2:16 pm
However they ask the question in various polls Sarah is still #1.
March 23rd, 2009 at 2:21 pm
However they ask the question in various polls Sarah is still #1.
Yes, though I wouldn’t put too much weight on a one point lead in an online poll.
March 23rd, 2009 at 2:26 pm
#15, The people who answered this poll, are hard-core activists….they show up to vote, donate and campaign in primaries….
March 23rd, 2009 at 2:35 pm
No doubt, Kristofer. But they’re also, by that very fact, not representative of the electorate as a whole. Also, once again, the margin is 1% — not meaningful in any poll.
Of course, on looking again, the question is “who is the future leader of the party”, not “who are you supporting for 2012″ — so I’m not sure how well it translates, even if the margin were meaningful.
March 23rd, 2009 at 2:37 pm
Bob. Found this.
The most recent national poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling on March 17th, showed that “Obama would crush Sarah Palin in a hypothetical head-to-head”. “Polling suggests that such a contest would result in the biggest popular vote blowout since George McGovern ran against Richard Nixon in 1972. Obama leads Palin 55-35 in the hypothetical contest. He has an 89-7 edge among Democrats. Among Republicans he trails 66-17. Last year’s exit polls show Obama only winning 9% of the Republican vote, so it appears Palin would lose a lot more voters within her party than McCain did. The poll showed Obama to have a 55% favorability among all voters, and Palin only 39% favorability.”
Sarah will lose in a landslide, and I would be one conservative amoung many, who will either not vote, vote 3rd party, or simpley….vote Obama like I did last time.
March 23rd, 2009 at 2:47 pm
#18, you voted for Obama? Holy crap….you must not have a 401K or a job then?
March 23rd, 2009 at 2:48 pm
Hovic,
Great point about such samples not being representative of the Republican electorate as a whole. There probably wasn’t a more unrepresentative sample of our party’s electorate than CPAC this year. Since there are no crosstabs provided by this poll, it’s tough to make an evaluation though I suspect these activists trend heavily male.
March 23rd, 2009 at 2:54 pm
The funniest thing about that PPP poll is its belief only 68% of the electorate will be white in 2012. In 1996, the percentage of the electorate that was white was 81%. Twelve years later, the composition of the electorate that was white was 75%. So it took the electorate 12 years to become 6% less white but in just four years, it’ll become 7% less white in 2012?
Blacks being 15% of the electorate? hahahah. Blacks were 12% of the electorate in 2008, while 11% of the electorate in 2004. So, are we to expect a 25% increase in the composition of the electorate that is black in 2012?
I’ll take the thanks from all of you for this tutorial on polling and demographics later….
March 23rd, 2009 at 3:00 pm
The people who need the tutorial Tommy Boy will never thank you because they want the PPP poll to be correct regardless of whether it is part of reality or not.
March 23rd, 2009 at 3:09 pm
#20 said;
Uhm, the GOP is male dominated….
March 23rd, 2009 at 3:17 pm
Kristofer,
Not as much as you would think…go look at the exit polls for our primaries last year (prior to Super Tuesday). Women comprised 45-49% of the electorate in nearly ever primary state.
I’m guessing the CPAC and the activist electorate is two-to-one male and I’m not even sure if the males who voted in CPAC and this poll are representative of the males who comprise most of our electorate.
March 23rd, 2009 at 3:23 pm
Tommy Boy. If Palin had done better as CPAC, I suspect you would be saying it was a fair representative sample.
Weren’t CPAC attendees the very people who supposedly favor Palin?
March 23rd, 2009 at 3:30 pm
#18: in a news.aol.com recent internet poll of a matchup between Obama and Palin:
Obama: 46%
Palin: 42%
Neither: 12%
347,626 votes cast
March 23rd, 2009 at 3:31 pm
Tommy,
According to the exit polls, 74 percent of the electorate in 2008 was white. The six percent disparity could be accounted for by the fact that PPP conducted a survey of “voters”; which suggests the sample was comprised of registered voters, not “likely voters” who are disproportionately white. It also appears that PPP oversampled Democrats (and, in turn, both Hispanics and blacks) by ~3-4 percentage points.
March 23rd, 2009 at 3:31 pm
#25, Actually Martha, that is not correct. CPAC is not a reflection of Palin supporters.
March 23rd, 2009 at 3:51 pm
28 Well, if CPAC is who is claims to be – which is a gathering of conservative activists – then it should be Palin’s crowd. That’s what everyone keeps telling us – that Palin is the one the base loves the most.
But, if you and Tommy are correct – that Palin is more of a moderate – then you are right, it’s not her crowd.
Truly, she is a populist, and will do whatever she needs to do to remain popular, be it conservative, moderate or even liberal policies. That’s her story.
I think conservatives in general really don’t have a clue who she really is. They just like the concept of Sarah.
March 23rd, 2009 at 3:54 pm
#29, with all due respect Martha, you display an distinct lack of understanding of the CPAC crowd and the supporters of each one of the 2012 potential nominees.
March 23rd, 2009 at 4:01 pm
Not really a surprise that Martha doesn’t understand the CPAC/conservative crowd, given her love of the moderate to liberal Romney.
Internet polls and any kind of non-scientific poll are pretty much worthless, so why bother? Just ask President Ron Paul if internet polls meant anything.
March 23rd, 2009 at 4:02 pm
31 – enlighten me.
March 23rd, 2009 at 4:04 pm
I wonder if Mitt would poll lower if his hair wasn’t so magnificent.
March 23rd, 2009 at 4:25 pm
21 – Its called the “Miracle of ACORN.” They are running the census, after all.
March 23rd, 2009 at 4:34 pm
HearMeRoar, your obsession with polygamy and Romney’s hair leads me to believe you are a woman who wants to be Mitt’s second wife.
March 23rd, 2009 at 4:35 pm
Flip, why do you think Romney won CPAC 3 years now? Because he’s a moderate/liberal?
March 23rd, 2009 at 4:36 pm
#31,
That would also meant that the Majority of CPAC attendees do not understand the CPAC/Conservative croud, as the majority of them voted in the poll for Romney. Let’s keep it factual and less emotional.
March 23rd, 2009 at 4:46 pm
Martha, I can’t help myself. Mitt is soooooo hot. But if I can’t have Mitt all to myself on this earth or the hereafter, I’ll pass.
March 23rd, 2009 at 4:52 pm
Why does Romney win CPAC? It all boils down to $$$$$. The first time around, he paid and transported college kids to CPAC to vote for him.
If I had $50 million of my own money to throw around, I think I could get a decent showing at CPAC and some of these local straw polls.
By the way, only 55% of the CPAC attendees in 2009 said they were happy with the GOP field for 2012. Hardly a ringing endorsement for Mitt. He was the best of a medicore bunch. Even I would vote for him over Palin, Huckabee and Jindal.
March 23rd, 2009 at 5:38 pm
#39,
I think it is comical how we never learn from history. The rising generation always screws things up, on both sides, because the “become for themselves” and forget about the past lessons to be learned. The same types of thing were said, Flip Dixon, about Reagan. This is the lesson we need to learn: How ca we learn how to discern when the real thing presents itself? Thankfully I think the countrie’s issues will swing in Romney’s favor, just in case people haven’t seen his great abilities(as many failed to do with Reagan before he was elected) and go with a person based solely on resume.
We are the employers here, and we wouldn’t hire anyone in our own businesses based off of personality or likeability would we? No, that is what the Democrats do. We vote on credentials and abilities. No one can doubt Romney’s resume, even his most reasonable critic.
Again, it took Reagan being in office for a few years in order for some to come around and realize he was a Great President.
March 23rd, 2009 at 6:13 pm
Martha,
I think you have a different idea of what constitutes the “base” than I do….the majority of the base would never log on to a conservative/Republican website called race42012 and would never attend CPAC.
March 23rd, 2009 at 7:00 pm
Tommy Boy, I am the base. I’m as typical as the base gets.
March 23rd, 2009 at 7:45 pm
41 – Amongst those who actually know the issues, and know the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates, Mitt stands out much, much higher than he does with the general population. That’s why he kicked tail in the caucus’, except Iowa of course. Iowa is more like a primary because a 1/2 million people vote, thus the unenlightened!
With many candidates as possible vp’s, I saw a poll of over 500 of McCain’s delegates, and they overwhelmingly were choosing Mitt. But, you know, McCain is a maverick. He showed us that Maverick’s can really get their tail kicked.
March 23rd, 2009 at 8:49 pm
#42, YOU ARE NOT THE BASE! TRUST ME!
March 23rd, 2009 at 9:00 pm
According to all of the tests we’ve taken lately, she fits the base as perfectly as anyone on here. If Martha is not, who is?
March 23rd, 2009 at 10:19 pm
If you are on this website regularly and posting comments or attending CPAC, you are probably not very representative of a typical member of the “base.” That’s just my opinion…
Martha may agree with the positions of the “base” (hell, I probably do as well) but our very presence on this blog would make you, me, and Martha outliers among the base though our viewpoints probably converge greatly.
Erick Erickson from Redstate explained it in an old post…the reason why we shouldn’t put all of our focus on copying Obama’s internet-dominated strategy is that our “base” is different culturally and demographically from liberals.
March 23rd, 2009 at 10:26 pm
Tommy Boy, I somewhat agree with you, to a point. For those who are enlightened about the political arena, meaning well informed, understand the candidates stands, strengths, and weaknesses, I think this site is fairly representative. It parallels the various state’s caucus’ in terms of Mitt being the dominate candidate. However, its obvious that Mitt has competition when it comes to the general population. I guess its mostly up to him to reach everyone. His supporters can do some, but most of it is up to his campaign and Mitt himself.
March 23rd, 2009 at 10:28 pm
#45,
The base is non-political. Martha is politically astute.
#46, exactly!!!…..we should adopt and surpass Obama’s internet/social networking strategy to bring in new/young voters.
March 23rd, 2009 at 10:30 pm
#47,
EXACTLY CORRECT! Those who are involved, usually support right of center technocrats, such as Mitt.
March 24th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
[...] his own 48% approval rating, Obama’s declining but still strong polling numbers, and his own single-digit to non-existent 2012 polling status, either path forward for Pawlenty looks fraught with [...]
March 29th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
My money is on Palin. Romney spent about $45 million trying to beat McCain, and couldn’t do it. When Romney campaigned for Chambliss in Georgia, his crowds were 100-200, Palin’s were 2,000-6,000. Palin will be able to raise just as much or more money than Romney can.
Over 1,500 people cancelled their attendance at CPAC when word got out that Palin wasn’t going to be there.