Sen. Specter is in fairly serious jeopardy if Pat Toomey decides to follow through on his primary challenge:
2010 Pennsylvania Republican Senate Primary Poll
- Pat Toomey 41%
- Arlen Specter 27%
Specter Approval Rating
All voters: 45%-31%
Republicans: 29%-47%
Independents: 41%-35%From March 19 – 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,056 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The survey includes 423 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points.
March 25th, 2009 at 10:36 am
I hope Toomey takes him down. It’s time.
March 25th, 2009 at 10:38 am
Holy crap that’s amazing! How about any polls of Toomey in the general, are there any out there?
March 25th, 2009 at 10:39 am
Welcome Senator Toomey!
March 25th, 2009 at 10:40 am
Shocking.
JA Pruce, you nitwit, Toomey would lose in the general.
March 25th, 2009 at 10:42 am
I give Toomey 1 chance in 10 of defeat Chris Matthews.
March 25th, 2009 at 10:45 am
How can you be so sure Alex? 2010 is a long ways away. If the economy is as awful in 2010 as many think it will be, running a candidate who is in direct opposition to the economic policy of the Obama administration may be ideal.
Secondly, it is not as if the Dems have a bunch of A-List prospects lining up for this race either. I have heard Franco freakin’ Harris mentioned as a possible nominee.
March 25th, 2009 at 10:51 am
Listen, if Toomey could somehow pull it off, I’d love that. I think he’d make a good senator. I’d certainly prefer him to Arlen Specter.
But I’m not holding my breath.
March 25th, 2009 at 10:53 am
Mr. Knepper seems to have a crystal ball. Instead of saying, “Mr. Toomey would BE LIKELY to lose the general,” he has to say, “Toomey WOULD lose the general.” For some reason, he always must use absolutes like that.
March 25th, 2009 at 10:54 am
Ugh, I hate this. Clarence, it’s called colloquial speech.
March 25th, 2009 at 10:55 am
“JA Pruce, you nitwit, Toomey would lose in the general.” That may be so, but Mr. Specter could do even worse if he does not pull up his socks.
March 25th, 2009 at 10:59 am
PPP has a new Arkansas poll out….Lincoln’s approval-disapproval is only 45-40 and she fails to poll 50% against former US Attorney Tim Griffin.
March 25th, 2009 at 10:59 am
Good points Ohio and Kavon – I don’t see Specter being any more electable than Toomey, in fact just the opposite (Specter is pretty politically cunning but I’m beginning to think that he just might have used up his nine political lives). In addition, the Dem bench in PA is pretty weak and with the economy continuing to tank this thing is very winnable.
March 25th, 2009 at 11:06 am
I assume this is why Specter came out against card-check yesterday. I’m inclined to go along with the CW that Specter has a better chance of winning the general than Toomey, but we don’t know what the economic situation will be then, so we’re really all just guessing.
March 25th, 2009 at 11:06 am
Haha Tommy Boy, and this is PPP!
March 25th, 2009 at 11:06 am
Toomey is very electable in the general given the current economic situation. There are few politicians from either party who can credibly run against the waste and out-of-control spending going on in Washington and Toomey is one of them.
As for the primary, Specter is in big trouble especially since he won’t have Santorum and President Bush out campaigning for him this time around – although I’m sure Mike “Club for Greed” Huckabee would love to come to PA and take some more shots at Toomey
March 25th, 2009 at 11:08 am
Toomey can win. Remember than this is the same state that elected Rick Santorum to more than one term – and elected a pro-life Democrat as Santorum’s replacement. If Toomey has the right strategy – with a focus on economic issues, he can beat Specter.
March 25th, 2009 at 11:09 am
Sorry, I meant that Toomey could win in the general.
March 25th, 2009 at 11:11 am
Toomey could also use these numbers to leverage a run for governor — demand endorsements from the GOP establishment in PA. From a long-term perspective, it is probably better to be a governor than a senator for a politician with national ambitions.
March 25th, 2009 at 11:31 am
16 – Yeah, it’s also the state that defeated Santorum by an 18-point margin in 2006!!!
March 25th, 2009 at 11:41 am
Santorum was defeated because the Democrats were smart enough to run a pro-lifer. Santorum’s defeat was a victory for social conservatives, in an odd way.
March 25th, 2009 at 11:48 am
Yeah, there is a lot of truth to that Clarence, in fact, believe it or not, there were polls showing that Mr. Santorum would have won if Mr. Casey was not the candidate.
March 25th, 2009 at 11:55 am
#15… I suspect that Huckabee wouldnt take shots at Toomey… they both have been harsh critics of the Obama stimulus package, unlike Specter.
March 25th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
Not a bad point MacisBack08: If Mr. Toomey is smart, he won’t get himself into any silly contests with Mr. Huckabee or anybody else.
March 25th, 2009 at 12:15 pm
#20, Santorum was also defeated because he was joined at the hip with Bush.
March 25th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
Kavon or another FPP,
We could use a thread with the new Arkansas PPP poll…if true, that poll is stunning.
March 25th, 2009 at 12:33 pm
#20 and #24 hit the nail on the head. 2006 was an anti-Republican and anti-Bush year with a dynasty Democrat running against Santorum.
March 25th, 2009 at 1:01 pm
I’d love to see Toomey win…even if it does hurt our chances in the general, Specter has got to go.
I will, however, admit skepticism about Toomey’s chances in the general (depending on who the Dems put up). However, Toomey’s message is primarily one of hard-line FISCAL conservatism. That’s very different from Santorum’s messaging, which was based in hard-line SOCIAL conservatism. So, I see Toomey selling much better in PA, expecially considering the way the economy is looking.
March 25th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
Toomey is not going to win in the general election. Anyone cheering him on is just doing a disservice to the GOP. We’re handing this seat over to the Democrats.
March 25th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
Santorum won originally because he ran against an appointed Democrat senator. Plus, he won in 1994, AND he only won with a plurality of the vote. Santorum just got lucky to win in one of the best GOP years out of the last 30. He would have lost virtually ever other year. He only won in 2000 because the Dems fielded a really crappy opponent.
Pennsylvania doesn’t elect economic conservatives and is starting to shift away from social conservatism.
Toomey is going to fail in the general if he knocks off Specter in the primary.
March 25th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
I just loooove how people are able to peer into their crystal balls and see that Pat Toomey WILL lose in 2010
…
March 25th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
Kavon,
If you were a betting man, would ou seriously throw your lot in with Toomey? Really? In a state where Dipshit Boy just won by ten points in November? I wish I had higher expetations of the state in which I was born, but realistically I just don’t see it.
March 25th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
Adam,
If the economy is in the tank and people no longer believe that the party in charge (the Dems) is capable of turning things around, I think that Pat Toomey would be an excellent choice.
If the economy is good, you would have to like the Dem’s chances against Toomey or Specter.
March 25th, 2009 at 2:30 pm
“If the economy is good, you would have to like the Dem’s chances against Toomey or Specter.” Like it or not, there is a lot of truth in that.
March 25th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
Specter will lose either way, in the primary or the general. If we got to lose better lose with a real republican.
March 25th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
I have to agree with Alex on this one. While yes, its possible that obama goes int o a free for all adn toomey is positioned well but that is assuming a lot changes big time.
I worked for Specter. I pretty much hate him, but I must say as conservatives we NEED to give him credit for opposing card check!!!!! That was huge. He may have just saved our economy big time.
I think if toomey wins we are more likely to lose that seat than if specter wins. hate specter, but that is a reality unless there are some major changes in the poltiical environment. In the mean time, Kudos to Specter for getting it right on card check. I wonder if there are behind doors deals going on here.
March 25th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
What about Lynn Swann?
March 25th, 2009 at 4:32 pm
NO Lynn Swann. He got clobbered in 2006. And there is no indication that he has the stuff necessary to win.
March 25th, 2009 at 5:24 pm
Kavon, let’s not forget that you claimed a while back that even Bush could beat Obama in November 2008, “once he’s exposed.” And I’m the only one with a perfect batting average on predictions from December 31st. I also predicted Obama’s victory, Fred Thompson’s fizzling out, and Ron Paul’s emergence as a minor factor rather than a nobody.
March 25th, 2009 at 7:14 pm
Alex,
Here’s one prediction I may end up just being wrong about the date.
http://www.cardin.senate.gov/pdfs/newspaper.pdf
March 26th, 2009 at 9:44 am
[...] the most important piece of information to note from this PA poll, as well the one from Quinnipiac — the dates. Both were conducted prior to Specter stating he would vote against cloture on [...]