Pew Research Republican Favorability Ratings
Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)
- Mitt Romney 40% / 28% (+12%)
- Michael Steele 23% / 14% (+9%)
- Sarah Palin 45% / 44% (+1%)
- Newt Gingrich 35% / 38% (-3%)
Among Republicans
- Sarah Palin 73% / 17% (+56%)
- Mitt Romney 57% / 18% (+39%)
- Newt Gingrich 55% / 22% (+33%)
- Michael Steele 28% / 14% (+14%)
Among Independents
- Mitt Romney 44% / 25% (+19%)
- Michael Steele 26% / 13% (+13%)
- Sarah Palin 46% / ~44% (+2%)
- Newt Gingrich 37% / 38% (-1%)
College Graduates+
- Mitt Romney 46% / 36% (+10%)
- Sarah Palin 41% / 52% (-11%)
High School Diploma or Less
- Sarah Palin 48% / 36% (+12%)
- Mitt Romney 33% / 25% (+8%)
Survey of 1,502 adults was conducted June 10-14. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. For the subsample of 401 Republicans, the margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points.
Inside the numbers:
In February 2008, just 29% of independents had a positive impression of Romney while 46% had a negative view. Today, that balance is reversed: 44% view Romney favorably and 25% unfavorably.
Positive opinions among both Democrats and Republicans have increased by eight points since early 2008. Among Republicans, Romney has made identical nine-point gains in favorability among conservative Republicans and moderate and liberal Republicans; currently, 61% of conservative Republicans and 52% of moderate and liberal members of the GOP express positive opinions of Romney.
Romney’s favorable ratings have not changed significantly among white non-Hispanic evangelical Republicans; 54% have a favorable opinion now, compared with 52% in February 2008. Among all other Republicans, by contrast, positive opinions of Romney have increased by 11 points, while negative opinions have fallen considerably (from 31% to 16%).
Palin continues to be overwhelmingly popular with key parts of the GOP base – white evangelical Republicans (84% favorable) and conservative Republicans (80% favorable).
Unlike Romney, Palin’s ratings continue to be much better among conservative Republicans (80%) than among moderates and liberals in the party (62%). And while positive views of Palin have slipped among non-evangelical Republicans (from 77% to 67%), they remain overwhelmingly positive among white evangelical Republicans (84% now, 85% last October).
Notably, as was the case during the election, Palin is rated somewhat better by men than she is by women. About half of men (48%) say their overall opinion of Palin is favorable, while 40% say it is unfavorable. Among women, the picture is reversed: 48% offer an unfavorable view, 41% a favorable one. This difference largely arises from gender differences in party affiliation. For instance, among Republicans, men and women express similar views of Palin (73% favorable).
Regionally, she is somewhat better regarded in the South (49% favorable) than she is in the Northeast (39% favorable).
As with other leading Republicans, Gingrich is rated higher by conservatives in his party than he is by Republican moderates and liberals. In addition, Gingrich is not as well-known among those younger than 30 (44% no opinion) as he is among older Americans (22% no opinion among those 30 and older).
Positive views of Steele outnumber negative ones among both Republicans (28% to 14%) and independents (26% to 13%). Democrats who offer an opinion of Steele are evenly divided (19% favorable, 17% unfavorable).
Notably, young people and African Americans are more familiar with Steele – and express more favorable opinions of him – than do older people and whites. Nearly half of those younger than 30 express an opinion of Steele – the highest percentage of any age group – and the balance of opinion is more than two-to-one favorable (33% favorable, 15% unfavorable). Older age groups express more mixed opinions of Steele.
The balance of opinion about Steele among blacks is also positive (33% favorable, 16% unfavorable). Among whites, 66% offer no opinion of Steele (compared with 51% of blacks), and just 20% have a favorable impression while 14% have an unfavorable one.
June 24th, 2009 at 6:10 pm
Palin may just have this nomination in the bag.
June 24th, 2009 at 6:15 pm
Kristofer,
If only Iowa wasn’t a caucus….
I’m keeping my eye on that favorable number among “moderate/liberal” Republicans. If that number remains respectable when compared to other candidates(let alone higher than anyone else as it is in this poll), I’m feeling pretty darn good.
June 24th, 2009 at 6:19 pm
http://hotair.com/archives/2009/06/24/john-kerry-on-sanford-too-bad-palin-didnt-go-missing-too/
hahahaha, getting dissed by John Kerry should be a badge of honor. Little does Kerry know that she’s on her way to see the troops.
June 24th, 2009 at 6:20 pm
Why didn’t they poll Huck? Dumb.
June 24th, 2009 at 6:24 pm
I was wondering the same thing…
June 24th, 2009 at 6:29 pm
Mitt is winning!
June 24th, 2009 at 6:30 pm
Comment no 1 is the weirdest thing ever read in this site (and that is saying something!).
June 24th, 2009 at 6:34 pm
Heath, look at the polling in the second group. That is most important to a primary.
June 24th, 2009 at 6:35 pm
Not just the second group Kristofer, but the number for “moderate/liberal” Republicans isn’t that close.
June 24th, 2009 at 6:38 pm
John Kerry on Sanford: Too bad Palin didn’t go missing tooposted at 6:38 pm on June 24, 2009 by Allahpundit
Pew’s got a new poll out today showing Romney’s net favorable rating at +12, compared to just +1 for Sarahcuda. With Sanford and Huntsman now out of the game, Jindal almost certainly biding his time until 2016, and Palin possibly too polarizing to win against The One, we’d all better hope Mitt runs. Because if he doesn’t, an ominous scenario presents itself:
June 24th, 2009 at 6:39 pm
Lol Kris you think McCain would have won a republican only contest?!
Republicans are only 30% of the voting population fool.
June 24th, 2009 at 6:39 pm
Allah fears the Huckmonster!
Run!
Away!
June 24th, 2009 at 6:40 pm
Ironic that Palin is winning the less intelligent poll as well. Figures I guess.
June 24th, 2009 at 6:42 pm
Heath,
You do comprehend that Republicans comprise around 80% of the voting electorate in a Republican primary?
June 24th, 2009 at 6:46 pm
Er, excuse me, Heath, but that’s the subject of this thread, on which you had already commented four times previous.
And you call Palin unintelligent?
June 24th, 2009 at 6:47 pm
Sanford was at 52/44 approval/disapproval in SC prior to today’s press conference:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/24144.html
June 24th, 2009 at 6:51 pm
Its really good to see Mitt is much more popular today than he was when he barely missed the nomination in February of 2008 when the last poll was conducted. If you read the cross tabs, he is up in every single category. His favorability of evangelicals is very high also.
But, I don’t care if we’re talking for Mitt, or Sarah or anything else, we have to be very careful with favorable/unfavorable polls. Here is why: If someone were to ask me if I have a favorable opinion of Sarah Palin, I would say yes. But as far as who I would vote for in a primary, she is pretty far down on the list. I think in Palin’s case, that is more so true than with other candiates. She has not ticked off most groups of people, so they see her favorable. That doesn’t mean people are planning to vote for her over the other candidates. On the contrary, Mitt probably suffers most on the favorable/unfavorable. 1) those that see him being Mormon as being a problem probably say unfavorable, even though they may very well vote for him in a general election.
He is also seen as someone who ‘the other candidates didn’t like’, or as the one who put out ‘negative’ ads! Why? Because the media painted it that way, so the average voter tends to believes some of that and he may get some people saying negative opinion for that reason.
Palin, on the other hand hasn’t ever run against any Republicans for anything. She has not shown her weaknesses in 10 debates as will show up later. Lots of normal people forget that she refused to answer legitimate questions during the debate with Biden, or that she totally blew it in the Couric interview.
I’m just saying, we need to be careful with these polls. Even though Mitt is leading here, I’m throwing out the caution flag.
June 24th, 2009 at 6:52 pm
Heath is still learning about American politics.
June 24th, 2009 at 6:53 pm
btw Heath, McCain won Florida, an all GOP primary.
June 24th, 2009 at 6:56 pm
I will say though that Kerry is an awesome debater….
June 24th, 2009 at 6:57 pm
Yes, it is funny that you (Kristofer) and I know a lot more about Canadian politics than these Canadians know about American politics, yet call us uneducated.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:01 pm
Here is how the Atlantic reads the poll (most analysts don’t look at the net but rather the top-line number):
Sarah Palin: America’s Top Republican
http://politics.theatlantic.com/2009/06/sarah_palin_americas_top_republican.php
June 24th, 2009 at 7:03 pm
Well, as you can tell by the cross tabs, Sarah receives poor favorables amongst college educated people, which makes perfect sense to me.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:09 pm
Not polling Huckabee is daft. He’s definitely top tier – 10 years as Governor, 3rd last time & a media regular. His polling would be very interesting.
Also, I’d like to see them starting to poll Pawlenty. He’s probably on his own in the 2nd tier now that Ensign & Sanford are out, and it would be good to have a starting point to see how his numbers progress in the next year or so.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:10 pm
“Well, as you can tell by the cross tabs, Sarah receives poor favorables amongst college educated people, which makes perfect sense to me.” Yeah, a Masters Degree in trouble-making.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:12 pm
And Romney’s still got 30 percent who express no opinion of him to work with! He’s 40/28 already and seems to be getting about 2 new favorables to every one unfavorable. So that ultimately would make it 60 to 38. That’s damn good. Anybody who knows polling history knows the hard core democrat vote is 38 percent – hell or high water. So it looks like everybody who POSSIBLE would vote for a non-democrat has (or seemingly will have – if the 2 to 1 breakdown continues) be favorably disposed to Romney. And that ,akes sense because if you take away the 38 percent who have blinders on (the republican base is also 38 percent) you have objective voters. And to any rational objective noemal person Romney is an obvious Presidential “type” … and he;s a genuinly pleasant and rational person — despite the pathetic medias best efforts to portray him as a plastic monster. All he needs to do is sit there. The electorate will come to him of Obama is found wanting.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:14 pm
“Also, I’d like to see them starting to poll Pawlenty. He’s probably on his own in the 2nd tier” He might even be 1 and a half tier.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:15 pm
sorry for the typos, but ah’s a collige grajit!
June 24th, 2009 at 7:16 pm
Among college graduates, 82 percent had an opinion of Romney. However, only 58 percent of those who never made it beyond high school could muster an opinion on Mitt. That 24-point divide is significant in contrast with Palin, where 93% of college grads shared their (decidedly negative) opinions of her, while only 9% fewer, 84 percent, of HS grads and dropouts, were still able to offer an ‘educated’ opinion. This nomination is by no means in the bag for Palin, but it does look like Sarah is well-situated; poised to occupy the position in the field as the GOP’s LCD candidate.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:21 pm
#29:
“GOP’s LCD candidate”
Lesotho Congress for Democracy just doesn’t seem to fit your LCD.
If Palin is the LCD candidate, Gary Johnson is the LSD candidate.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:21 pm
Lets not start with the “one and a half tier”, at the moment there are four tiers:
1st tier – Romney, Palin, Huckabee
2nd tier – Pawlenty (Barbour, Crist, Jindal & Gingrich if they ran, but they won’t)
3rd tier – Johnson (fill the libertarian hole the size of Ron Paul + Mark Sanford), Thune
4th tier – the no hopers, the Tancredo & Hunters of 2012.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:24 pm
The numbers that grabbed my attention the most were the educated vs uneducated support/no support for Palin. It kind of scares me that she is a serious candidate for President of the United States because her biggest support comes from high school drop outs.
As a disclaimer, she is #2 on my list.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:27 pm
OK, I overreacted in 32 and I apologize to the Palin supporters.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:27 pm
The hilarious thing is that people on this blog are equating “college education” with “educated.”
Talk to a standard arts and sciences (not hard sciences)/agricultural school/public policy major from even an ivy league university and you’ll find out that there’s not much up there.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:29 pm
#32. Same for Obama. They both appeal to the uneducated.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:30 pm
#30 Don’t forget Romney as the LDS candidate.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:31 pm
Yeah, it sure was key last year.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:32 pm
You guys are reading the High School education standings of Mitt and Sarah wrong. Forget raw percentages because so mant fewer know Mitt. Their ratios are actually identical. Mitt has an advantage in that he has a larger universe of undecideds to possibly get to like him. Sarah is already a known quantity. and that is even more the case with all the other demographics. Huckabee, Gingrich and Palin have images carved in stone. They are not going to change much at all. Only Mitt is positioned to attract the attention and support of greater numbers of voters. If he puts Haley Barbour on his ticket he’s in like Flynn!!!
June 24th, 2009 at 7:33 pm
34. I think most people here would say someone with a college education is more “educated” then someone without one.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:34 pm
How many Republican primaries are open to independents? Seems the more that are, the better it looks for Romney. But then again Giuliani was popular with indies in 2008 so who knows?
Also, since higher educated tend to be wealthier, I wonder if, despite her rep as a superstar fundraiser, Romney’s war chest will fill up faster and easier.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:34 pm
38. Good point.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:35 pm
My guess is that the education differential is more a reflection of socio-econmic status than of education or intelligence. Blue-collar people seem to support Palin.
Of course, it’s always reassuring, when the numbers break your way, to say, “All us smart people support my guy. All the dumb hicks support our opponent.”
Reassuring — and dangerous.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:35 pm
34 Tommy, yes there are a lot of fluff degrees out there, like journalism. I am embarrassed of my art degree and proud of my chemistry degree.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:36 pm
So Micah, you are telling me that you would consider someone who majored in arts and sciences (not the hard sciences)/public policy/arts and crafts/ag school more “educated” than the 75% of veterans over the age of 25 who did not complete college?
http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/facts_for_features_special_editions/007611.html
June 24th, 2009 at 7:36 pm
Haha. Journalism most definitely IS a fluff major. I’m a meteorologist and I see dim-witted jornalists every day.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:37 pm
Haha. Journalists. (My problem is that I never learned how to type properly and instead point and peck. )
June 24th, 2009 at 7:37 pm
Tommy Boy,
To what do you attribute this 24-point disparity?
June 24th, 2009 at 7:38 pm
Illinois,
“But, I don’t care if we’re talking for Mitt, or Sarah or anything else, we have to be very careful with favorable/unfavorable polls. Here is why: If someone were to ask me if I have a favorable opinion of Sarah Palin, I would say yes. But as far as who I would vote for in a primary, she is pretty far down on the list.”
I agree, but I think we can consider the “unfavorables” as those who will NOT vote for the candidate, almost assuredly. So if you take 100 minus the unfavorable, you have a ceiling.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:39 pm
44. A 25 year old who majored in arts and sciences is more educated than a 25 year old male who did not attend any college what so ever.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:41 pm
44 Tommy, that was an awesome card you played there. If we make fun of the uneducated then now, per you, we are making fun of vets. Palin would never need to play the sexist card if she would just play your uneducated vets card.
As to the meat of your post, even art majors have to take English classes. Although, apparently, it doesn’t require any mastery of sentence structure to pass some college English classes.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:42 pm
Illinois: Good point for everyone to keep in mind regarding “favorability.” It is different from who you are going to vote for. And not many of us don’t like Sarah. The problem for the GOP with Sarah is how unfavorable independents and moderates–and women–view her (and it has only gotten worse during the last year). Win the battle and lose the war?? But its way early.
As for Romney, when you go to the site and review all the numbers–Romney is up in all categories. Frankly, his numbers are better than I thought they would be. No doubt he has continued to help himself and the party since 08.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:44 pm
Dan,
I didn’t play any “card” because it is my argument that those who do not attend college or finish college should not be labeled “uneducated” as you just did (vice versa, those who finished college should not be labeled “educated”).
June 24th, 2009 at 7:44 pm
Hasn’t anybody reminded themselves that the percentage of Independents is much larger than a year ago and growing, while the GOP percentage is smaller and shrinking? Don’t we remember that the biggest party is now the Independents and it is seriously bigger than the Dems or the GOP? Isn’t what we are all interested in is winning the Presidency in 2012, not winning the nomination and losing again in November?
And yes, they should have considered Huckabee. He and Palin will certainly split their part of the GOP Primary ballots, particularly in the South. ( Probably too small to matter in the North and Huckabee hardly registers in the West)
So, depends on whether you want to win……or just run in a race
June 24th, 2009 at 7:46 pm
Aron,
What I attribute the difference in the percentages who had an opinion of Palin vs. Romney is that those on college campuses are exposed more to politics than those who do not attend college. However, one’s exposure to politics does not necessarily mean that person is “educated.”
June 24th, 2009 at 7:48 pm
Now, you are probably going to ask then why do those without a college education have an opinion about Palin compared to Romney? To that question, I really don’t have an answer. It may just be that Palin is a unique figure, for better or worse.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:50 pm
Aron, #47, that is a good point. The educated are more likely to know something about the candidates.
Its odd to look at the geographical positioning of some of the candidates:
South – Huckabee country
West – Romney country
MidWest – Palin & Pawlenty country
NorthEast – who? Romney’s from MA, but trashes it so much that he was behind McCain in that region.
The NE isn’t very Republican nowadays. But there’s a lot of delegates in places like NY, that someone needs to work for them. Who will it be?
June 24th, 2009 at 7:51 pm
Funny how all the headline writers outside of this site as painting this as a great day for Mitt and not for Sarahbaracuda.
Am I calling Sarah unintelligent? You better sit down as this may shock you but YES and 99% of the world worked this out by early Sept 08.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:52 pm
I wouldn’t label the South “Huckabee” country Jay. The Rombots rightly point out that Romney held his own against Huckabee in many of those states. Pawlenty and Palin could very well beat Huckabee in many of those states, if not all of them.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:53 pm
Heath,
All the “headline” writers? Did you miss my link to the Atlantic?
June 24th, 2009 at 7:54 pm
“However, one’s exposure to politics does not necessarily mean that person is “educated.””
Tommy Boy, surely its a good thing to be exposed to politics, and actually know more about the candidate than “they’re black”, “they’re good looking”, “they used to be a Baptist Minister”. Fancy having an electorate filled with people who knew the political positions they were notionally voting for!
June 24th, 2009 at 7:55 pm
MWS,
I don’t agree on the point about “unfavorables.” Remember H. Clinton’s favorables at the start of the primaries.
You would have never thought that by the end of the primaries, she would be leading John McCain by around 150 electoral votes and leading him in deep-red states such as Kentucky, West virginia, arkansas, and north carolina in addition to swing states such as florida and ohio.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:56 pm
Sorry Tommy, I just jumped to some silly, out dated conclusions that to call a person educated means that they have had some higher education. I didn’t realize that Joe Six Pack was a self taught engineer, anesthesiologist, economist, legal scholar…
June 24th, 2009 at 7:57 pm
Jay,
That “exposure” to politics that people receive in college is often non-substantive. What people generally learn about are the names, personal characteristics assigned to that person, and how that person is considered on an idealogical scale.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:58 pm
Tommy Boy is making the mistake of conflating life experience with education.
While I agree that it’s unnecessary to belittle those who are, relative to the rest of the adult population, uneducated, it goes without saying that those who earned bachelor’s degrees, compared to those who never attended college or graduated from high school, are more “educated.” To construe personal pride in one’s academic achievements as denigration of those less accomplished in the scholastic arena reveals an unfortunate inferiority complex.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:58 pm
#58
Tommy, if you add up the Southern states won by the candidates, you get:
Huckabee – Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, WV, Tennessee, Loiusiana. 6 out of his 8 wins came in the south, with another 5 second placings including the all-important SC.
Romney – 0 wins, and 1 2nd place (WV, maybe Florida too).
That’s hardly keeping pace.
June 24th, 2009 at 8:02 pm
I am surprised some many college educated folks can’t see how much of a phony and two face lair Mitt the flip flopper is.
June 24th, 2009 at 8:03 pm
so*
June 24th, 2009 at 8:05 pm
As someone who recently graduated from college and is in the process of completing graduate school, I’m thankful that most of the bloggers on this thread have stroked my ego and declared that I am more educated than the millions of small business owners who did not complete college but worked their way into the tax bracket that will soon be forced to pay more of its money to the federal government courtesy of Barack Obama.
June 24th, 2009 at 8:06 pm
Tom you’ve really hit on something there. I am convinced that the alcohol haze grants Joe Six Pack’s eyes an uncanny ability to discern veracity.
June 24th, 2009 at 8:08 pm
Well shucks Tommy, I really wish that my wife and I had known that we didn’t have to go to college before we opened our small business.
June 24th, 2009 at 8:10 pm
There are non-college educated people who are very knowledgeable, and college educated people who are not very knowledgeable.
But surely it is beyond dispute that ON AVERAGE a college educated person is probably more educated than a non-college educated person?
June 24th, 2009 at 8:11 pm
DanL,
I’m glad to be of assistance. That’s what educated people do after all.
By the way, I only bashed the claim that those who have majored in arts and sciences (non-hard sciences)/public policy/agricultural school/arts and crafts are more educated than peers who did not attend or complete college.
Micah and Aron (I think Aron is making the claim) have unequivocally stated that someone with a college education is more educated than someone without one.
June 24th, 2009 at 8:14 pm
Tommy your a good guy and it’s been fun sparing with you
June 24th, 2009 at 8:16 pm
It appears Tommy Boy is also conflating education with intelligence and aptitude.
Yes, someone with a bachelor’s degree is, by any understood definition of the word, more educated than someone who never made it out of high school.
June 24th, 2009 at 8:18 pm
DanL,
Did you and Tommy Boy go bowling?
June 24th, 2009 at 8:19 pm
Do you guys then agree with this statement made by Barack Obama in his state of the union address:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/remarks-of-president-barack-obama-address-to-joint-session-of-congress/
“It is our responsibility as lawmakers and educators to make this system work. But it is the responsibility of every citizen to participate in it. And so tonight, I ask every American to commit to at least one year or more of higher education or career training. This can be community college or a four-year school; vocational training or an apprenticeship. But whatever the training may be, every American will need to get more than a high school diploma. And dropping out of high school is no longer an option. It’s not just quitting on yourself, it’s quitting on your country – and this country needs and values the talents of every American. That is why we will provide the support necessary for you to complete college and meet a new goal: by 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world.”
To this “educated” fellow (which I am, according to the standard laid out by Micah and Aron), this passage from Obama was one of the most arrogant in his monotonous SOTU address. Why is it the “responsibility” of every American, let alone a responsibility of the federal government?
June 24th, 2009 at 8:20 pm
Aron,
I’m a terrible bowler (I’m educated after all), but I am very good at eating steaks courtesy of others.
June 24th, 2009 at 8:20 pm
Lol, my education hasn’t served me too well either huh?
June 24th, 2009 at 8:20 pm
Palin released a statement on her facebook.
My heart and prayers are with Governor Sanford and especially his family during this difficult time.” – Gov. Sarah Palin
June 24th, 2009 at 8:29 pm
You’re eating you Dad’s Father’s Day present?!?! How Mark Sanford of you.
June 24th, 2009 at 8:30 pm
It used to be quite funny when people suggested a ‘no affairs’ pledge alongside the ‘no tax’ pledge, but given the number of politicians failing on this front maybe its not a bad idea…
June 24th, 2009 at 8:32 pm
76 Tommy, I think it is totally pointless to start college if a person isn’t going to finish it. I see that line from Obama’s speech as free advertising for Obama’s buddies in college education.
June 24th, 2009 at 8:33 pm
76 Tommy, Bill Ayers probably wrote that crap for Obama.
June 24th, 2009 at 8:55 pm
Without a democrat primary in 2012, GOP primaries will see a substantial independent participation, under ANY CIRCUMSTANCE THAT WE CARE ABOUT.
Can we agree that these discussions are only relevant if the conditions exist where we can win the general. People only vote to retain or terminate an incumbent. So, it has to start with people having broken with Obama, a situation that seems to be working itself out just fine, especially among independents.
Second, is the issue(s) over which they wish to terminate the incumbent. The opposition candidate has to be seen as the antithesis: Johnson/Nixon – Viet Nam, Ford/Carter – Watergate, Carter/Reagan – Economy, Bush/Clinton – Iraq/Economy. Obama was a bigger contrast to Bush II than HRC.
The opportunities today for a pitchfork mob against Obama in 2012 are numerous, with foreign policy running a distant second to economy/jobs/deficit/cronyism. The candidate that will light a fire for independents (and republicans) will be the anti-Obama. (why does that sound apocalyptic?) Someone who will excite them that he/she will undo the damage and restore the country.
The continuing surge in independents to Romney is mirroring the disenchantment with Obama, and is a potentially significant dynamic towards this scenario playing out in 2012. Do not misunder-estimate the role independents will play in the GOP primaries as well as the general election.
June 24th, 2009 at 9:00 pm
These numbers are great for Romney and terrible for Palin.
The more important number is actually the unfavorable rather than the favorable, and those numbers put Palin in Trouble. Also the difference between Favorable and unfavorable should be looked at. Here Romney is crushing Palin. The difference shows how much room a candidate has to move up. Only among self described Republicans does Palin do well. Also, remember Palin has yet to be part of any debates.
June 24th, 2009 at 9:02 pm
84, That’s a good point.
Both NH and SC have open primaries.
June 24th, 2009 at 9:09 pm
Putting New York Back Together
By RUDOLPH W. GIULIANI
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/24/opinion/24giuliani.html?ref=opinion&pagewanted=print
Rudy Giuliani Talks Albany
http://www.nydailynews.com/video/index.html?autoStart=true&topVideoCatNo=default&clipId=3898999
Rudy To The Rescue
http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2009/06/rudy-to-the-rescue.html
Giuliani: Constitutional Convention May Fix Albany
http://wcbstv.com/video/?id=129390@wcbs.dayport.com
Giuliani calls for NY constitutional convention
http://www.newsday.com/news/local/politics/ny-nyrudy0525,0,4831423.story
Rudy Giuliani calls Albany ‘bizarre,’ as GOP presses him to run for governor
http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/2009/06/24/2009-06-24_rudy_giuliani_calls_albany_bizarre_as_gop_presses_him_to_run_for_governor.html#ixzz0JP3xHzon&C
Rudy Giuliani on Sanford Affair
http://www.politico.com/singletitlevideo.html?bcpid=1155201977&bctid=27470326001
June 24th, 2009 at 9:12 pm
Does anyone think Huckabee is not running in 2012?
Otherwise the poll is worthless.
June 24th, 2009 at 9:22 pm
88: I don’t think he is running, but then again, I don’t think Palin is running either. Also, we don’t know who is going to run nor has Palin gone through a true campaign or put together an organization.
Atleast we know what Romney and Huckabee will be like on the Campaign trail. Bottom line the poll is worthless regardless if Huckabeee runs or not. If Polls this far out mattered, Rudy would have won the nomination.
June 24th, 2009 at 9:23 pm
Who’s watching Obama? Amanda Carpenter says he’s off his “game.”
http://twitter.com/AmandaCarpenter/status/2320135023
“All right. Obamercial timeout. I’m thinking Obama is NOT in control of this informercial tonight. He’s not selling it, off his game.”
June 24th, 2009 at 9:28 pm
I think Gov. Palin will run for President in 2012. Former Gov. Mitt Romney won’t get the nominee in 2012. The Republican conservatives don’t want Romney because he is not conservative. Romney is a ‘liberal’ Republican. It is the liberal news media want Romney to run in 2012 again because they know Romney can’t beat Obama. It is exactly happened to McCain when he lost the election last November. That why I don’t believe the news media polls. If Romney does get the nominee in 2012, I will not vote for him and stay at home on Election Day.
June 24th, 2009 at 9:31 pm
#89 I wouldn’t say polls this far out are worthless.
They just don’t predict well who the nominee in 2012 will be.
June 24th, 2009 at 9:32 pm
JAYPE,
HUCK WAS SECOND NOT THIRD, FOR THE RECORD
June 24th, 2009 at 9:36 pm
Unimaginable Horror In Tehran Today
http://threatswatch.org/rapidrecon/2009/06/unimaginable-horror-in-tehran/
CNN: Massacre in Tehran
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEtVRgZ3Szw&eurl=
Riot police crush protests in Tehran amid allegations of brutality
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article6571608.ece
Obama leaves door open to tax on health benefits
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090624/ap_on_go_pr_wh/us_health_care_overhaul
Obamacare, Cap & Trade Will Make an Economy in “Shambles” Worse
by Rush Limbaugh
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_062409/content/01125110.guest.html
76% Say Government Likely To Waste Stimulus Money
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/economic_stimulus_package/june_2009/76_say_government_likely_to_waste_stimulus_money
E-mails between Sanford, woman
http://www.thestate.com/sanford/v-print/story/839350.html
The Mark Sanford affair: Its naked political impact
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2009/06/mark-sanford-affair.html
Sanford and Ensign called on Clinton to resign after his affair
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2009/06/sanford-and-ensign-called-on-clinton-to-resign-after-his-affair.html
June 24th, 2009 at 9:48 pm
#93:
They were tied for second. You could argue a thousand different ways as to who won more when they were both in, or point out popular votes, and caucus results, or delegate counts, but Romney and Huckabee basically tied for second place.
June 24th, 2009 at 9:50 pm
Stay Tuned for More of ‘The Obama Show’
By Dana Milbank
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/23/AR2009062303262_pf.html
June 24th, 2009 at 9:52 pm
91 anonymous
You don’t speak for conservatives, I am a conservative, and he is the most conservative candidate in the top tier. More conservative than Palin or Huckabee. Now, if you are talking about social conservatives, then he may be just slightly behind them. But both Palin and Huckabee are populist, not conservatives.
93 james boulder
You have a funny way of counting delegates. Romney was well ahead of Huckabee when it became obvious that McCain was going to win the nomination. The mire fact that Romney gave a large number of his delegates to McCain does not put Huckabee in 2nd place, it puts him in third. You can’t count the delegates that Huckabee acquire when Romney wasn’t even running. You got a funny way at looking things.
June 24th, 2009 at 9:57 pm
If Mitt is trashing Massachusetts so much, I wonder why they wish they had him back now by a 57 – 38 margin over their current Democratic candidate??
Isn’t that amazing, a guy governs 100% conservative in a very, very liberal state, and they still want him back. I’d say this guys has very broad appeal.
June 24th, 2009 at 10:00 pm
#97:
Of course you count the delegates Huckabee won when Romney was out of the race; he still won them! Don’t blame Huckabee for Romney dropping out earlier.
At the end of the March 4th primary, when McCain got the 1191 required to win the nomination, Huckabee had 267 delegates and Romney had 255. That is a tie in my books.
June 24th, 2009 at 10:00 pm
reply to 98:
I wonder if Mitt would have a chance to carry Massachusetts, assuming that he gets the nomination and Obama continues to bomb. I don’t think its out of the realm of possibilities.
June 24th, 2009 at 10:07 pm
I think we have to be careful getting all excited about Palin at this point.
She reminds me of Fred Thompson a little bit.
Fred had a huge following and his supporters were creating one heck of an image of him. He was a largely unknown quantity and they were molding him into their political savior. I see the same thing happening with Palin. And I’m suspicious that a large percentage of Palin’s supporters are ex-Fredheads.
Romney and Huckabee are known quantities after the last election cycle, but I think Palin is being “custom made” by her supporters to make her into what they want her to be. Sort of a hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil kind of thing. That went on with Fredheads too. It was kind of like the MSM with Obama….any discussion of possible failings are off the table…….”Don’t even question our candidate!” kind of mentality.
If Palin is still viable by the real start of the 2012 cycle, I wouldn’t be surprised if she flames out like Fred did. I just have that feeling. Nothing against her (I liked a lot about Fred by the way)
On the other hand, Romney and Huckabee could make a lot of improvement over the next few years, and barring one of them pulling a “Sanford,” they are not just going to drop off the map tomorrow.
Huck and Mitt will be in the lead and Palin will be Fred but who got in the race earlier (Except that I’m concerned that some of that ethics smoke and tabloid stuff coming out of Alaska might contain a landmine that Sarah steps on and, poof, she’s gone. That “Where there’s smoke there’s fire” thing has me worried.)
June 24th, 2009 at 10:10 pm
100: That would be tough but Mitt did well even agaginst Ted when he ran for Senator. Obama won MA with @1.9 million to McCain’s 1.1–62% to 36%. So that would be a challenge but if Obama is not riding high you could bet Mitt would visit on the campaign trail.
June 24th, 2009 at 10:21 pm
reply to 101 Strong America:
The one thing I can guarantee you is Mitt will not pull a Sanford, that you can take it to the bank.
I am also willing to give Huckabee the benefit of the doubt. Should Huckabee do such a thing, his followers would leave him in groves.
So, bottom line, I doubt either Huckabee or Romney would fall from grace like Sanford. I doubt we would see any future scandals from those two (there are old ones about Huckabee and the governors furniture), but they don’t come up to the degree of Sanford.
June 24th, 2009 at 10:33 pm
1) Mitt will NEVER win Mass. He’s practically disowned it.
2) Mitt has never cheated. Mike I very much doubt. Sarah word is she probably did but I don’t crucify her for that as it was long ago and there are so many other disqualifying factors for her.
June 24th, 2009 at 10:37 pm
#91
Anonymous: Why don’t you think Romney is a conservative, and why do you think Palin will be the nominee?
.
June 24th, 2009 at 10:45 pm
Heath, Why are you smearing Governor palin with lies?
I am sure they didn’t like the fact the huck smeared mitt during the campaign right?
June 24th, 2009 at 10:51 pm
Reply to 106: There is information out there that Sarah Palin may have had an affair with your ex business partner. She has denied it. The Business Partner had his divorce records sealed, so it left some open questions.
So while there is no proof that Sarah Palin had an affair, there is word out there that she probably did.
Its not a smear if its the truth, but if she did or did not have an affair is an open question. Frankly, reasonable people are willing to give her the benefit of the doubt.
June 24th, 2009 at 10:57 pm
Do some research you smear merchants.
Privacy, not intrigue, behind pol pal’s bid to seal divorce records
http://www.thesmokinggun.com/archive/years/2008/0905083palin1.html
The McCain Campaign threaten to sue the tabloids from running this story.
I could see why the Governor is upset with all the lies and distortions that were coming out during the campaign.
June 24th, 2009 at 11:06 pm
Clark – you sound like one of these Gamecockesque fools who couldn’t see the obvious that there was something wrong with Sanford this week. Of course there is no public evidence that Palin had an affair. It’s just my gut instinct from what I’ve read about it. You must admit it’s a very permissive and out there family!
Anyway so what if she did – it wasn’t the same as what Sanford did.
June 24th, 2009 at 11:11 pm
I have a gut feeling as well, I actually think Mitt probably had an affair on one those “long business trips” of his in the past.
June 24th, 2009 at 11:30 pm
Anyone thinking that Mitt has ever betrayed Ann is crazy – he’s been in love with her since she was about 15 (in itself a little bit weird but good for him).
Btw Clark you should do some research yourself. The SR rumour was a classic smokescreen for the real rumour which apparently had legs involving one BH.
June 24th, 2009 at 11:54 pm
The story is that Todd dissolved the partnership because he got wind of something going on between Sarah and his partner. The employees said something was going on between them. Maybe none of it is true, and maybe it was never anything more than flirting. We don’t know, but when/why did the rumor even get started? I think it’s pretty old.
Doesn’t matter anyway. Palin’s fans won’t care. In fact it may lend more naughty librarian appeal. You know, for guys like Rush. Nothing will dissuade her supporters.
June 24th, 2009 at 11:57 pm
Tommy Boy,
Why are you determined to re-define educated? It seems like Sarah’s poor numbers with college grads and her high numbers with the uneducated are getting to you a little.
The numbers don’t surprise me one bit.
June 25th, 2009 at 12:20 am
When Mitt dropped out, he got 286,Mike stay later when he dropped out he got 256, that is the right number.Mitt has the best resume of all, and he is the Mr.fixed, he is the turn around man,in his leadership, we will take back the white house in 2013.America need Mitt now and the future.right now, democrats has the sunset star, but we have the rising star,good luck.
June 25th, 2009 at 12:50 am
Golly, Palin is more stridently socially conservative, less technocratic, and appeals the voters with the highest religiosity and the lowest amount of education.
SHOCKER!!!
June 25th, 2009 at 1:07 am
I just figured out what is bothering me about Palin…
Why is it that Palin has so many enemies in her home State, but people outside of Alaska really love her and will do anything for her, that doesn’t make any since. Lots of Governors knock heads together when they Govern, but they usually manage to have a working relationship with their Legislatures.
Ethic charges against Governors are pretty rare so why is this happening to her? She has to be at least partially to blame for the messes she gets herself into, but she makes herself look like the poor victim so her supporters quickly rally around to protect her. She is fighting with the media, the Legislature, the oil companies, McCain’s campaign people, Levi, Levi’s Mother, the Senate fundraising committee, Letterman etc.etc.
I just don’t think that is the sign of a good leader.
June 25th, 2009 at 2:26 am
lkv Sarah the darer is batting 15/15 re the ethics charges so you can’t use that against her. From all reports she was well liked in Alaska before she got famous.
June 25th, 2009 at 2:59 am
These ethics charges are all bogus. All roads lead back to the Obama war room. The Alaskan anklebiters are part of his arsenal of attack. 15 our 15 thrown out should tell you something. It has nothing to do with Sarah’s leadership and everything to do with Sarah being a threat to Obama and the Democratic Party.
June 25th, 2009 at 3:10 am
There is something to be said about the Obama machine. Their purpose is to seek and destroy all oposition to be sure, but I’m not sure if that applies to Palin. It’s like she uses her supporters to go after her enemies. I mean she has Rush and Gretta and Glenn carrying her water just about everyday.
June 25th, 2009 at 3:16 am
Maybe those ethics charges are bogus, but I don’t think she should use others like Rush and them to be her attack dogs.
June 25th, 2009 at 3:18 am
Maybe those ethics charges are bogus, but I don’t think she should be using others like Rush and Gretta as her attack dogs.
June 25th, 2009 at 3:35 am
Okay .. this speaks volumes:
College Graduates+
Mitt Romney 46% / 36% (+10%)
Sarah Palin 41% / 52% (-11%)
High School Diploma or Less
Sarah Palin 48% / 36% (+12%)
Mitt Romney 33% / 25% (+8%)
June 25th, 2009 at 7:22 am
122 = winner.
June 25th, 2009 at 8:30 am
118. There’s no evidence for that. This is all about Alaska and a couple of disgruntled foes. I think it’s laughable to accuse Obama.
BTW – most of the ethics investigations were bogus, but not Troopergate or the state travel for her children.
June 25th, 2009 at 8:34 am
If Romney wins the nomination, I hope he resists the pressure to choose Palin for VP. I think he would likley choose a woman, but I don’t see him being all that impressed with Palin, and she comes with a boatload of baggage.
June 25th, 2009 at 10:36 am
Luv the college vs high school assessment
June 25th, 2009 at 11:29 am
Interesting that folks who dropped out of High school, would support Palin.
Weird.
June 25th, 2009 at 11:30 am
IRSberg dead ahead!
June 25th, 2009 at 11:35 am
Oh, and clark, if that is true, you should name a name or two! Or at best, produce someone who saw something! Mitt has more than just his family to lose. I know it’s difficult to understand, but there are a handfull in the GOP who walk the talk. I don’t believe Mitt or Huck (and I am by no means a huck fan) every cheated on their spouses.
June 25th, 2009 at 11:42 am
Clarke,
McCain camp threatened to sue the NE (same folks that broke Clinton’s blue dress gig, and Edwards love child – all accurate). The NE ran it. my guess is that attorney’s from both camps looked, and one camp backed off. Story ran.
June 25th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
Pretty weak numbers for Romney among Republicans. Palin pretty much blows him out of the water, and it looks like she’s running.
Also, Romney’s negatives were astronomical when he was actually running for President. They make Palin’s current negatives look quite minor by comparison. The more people see of The Mitten, the more they dislike him.
Romney’s best Presidential strategy is to keep out of sight for the next three years. That’s a strategy I would fully support.
June 25th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
Flip, You’ll come to love Romney. Just wait. And when you do, we won’t even say we told you so. He’ll make a great POTUS.
June 25th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
#130 Knickers, why would you make yourself look foolish and use the NE as a source? Yes, they got a few stories that turned out to be true, but on average, how often do they get it right (or even try to get it right)? There’s a REASON people scoff at them as a good source for anything…
June 25th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
#131
So are you in with the no college education crowd, or are you an outlier?
June 25th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
Richard, have you ever investigated it? The original story did not come from the NE, it came out of Alaska. The rumors started from something – we don’t know what or who. But it’s likely that there was some reason for the story. The NE did not pull it out of thin air.
June 25th, 2009 at 4:25 pm
Martha, yes I did look into it. I know where the allegation comes from (well, at least one source for it, anyway). I find that source lacks credibility, as there’s a VERY personal reason to make the allegation (and not political, btw). I went to a few sites pushing this allegation, and they had crazy written all over them (not just because of the allegation, but sourcing). Knickers has promised to send me her sources, and I’ve promised to look at it and let her know my opinion on it, even promising to post it if it seemed credible.
June 26th, 2009 at 11:14 pm
Mitt will most likely be the last one standing. Palin, if she keeps getting into the mud with the media(she needs to show she is adult enough to pay no heed to it), may fall hard.